Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #8

[BreakingNews]

But what about “protecting” his trophies…?? As I suggested in my post, an “associate” could be the only remaining link to PS’s hypothetically coveted trophies… !!!

Hypothetically, then, if PS spills the beans on an alleged “custodian” of his souvenirs he loses everything… in addition to kissing goodbye to his trophies he also relinquishes his “gripping” reputation as one of the most “successful” 22 year olds to undertake an (almost) flawless “disappearance”, leaving an entire community and extensive police resources baffled, for weeks…??!! JMO…

What good is a trophy if you are in prison? I'm a long way from being 22, but do kids really think like this when accused of murder?

 

[Kemug]

Just thought it was worth mentioning, that people in criminal gangs can still hold regular jobs (which is a scary thought.)

Did the accused work for his father? If so, I doubt there were criminal checks. He may not have been able to get a job with anyone else.

And - in the event that he is the same PS who is being mentioned in regard to sexual abuse, then that would also make employers steer clear. Of course it may not be the same person.

 

[ProfCluezo]

What good is a trophy if you are in prison? I'm a long way from being 22, but do kids really think like this when accused of murder?

I’m not a murderer so I can’t pretend to grasp the accused’s motivations…. However from what I’ve read about serial killers at least, they are much more motivated by continuing fame, fear and intrigue than by potentially revealing their trade secrets and returning to oblivion...

Many murderers relish in the power of taking secrets to their graves…

From where I am sitting it would seem PS has already made too many “mistakes” to have any realistic expectation of a lengthy or meaningful life outside prison…? The dye is already cast…

I very much doubt that revealing the identity of a hypothetical (likely only) tangentially involved associate would have much, if any bearing, on the most substantive part of PSs sentence. Especially after failing to “cooperate” for almost 7 weeks…

JMO

 

[Poirot's niece]

Or he got off his face again the following weekend and let something slip or someone saw a photo on his phone? Loose lips sink ships.

That too. Is that kind of evidence admissible, if someone 'off chops' confesses something? I really don't know, I assume it would have to be tested and combined with other evidence. A credible eyewitness or accomplice under duress (or willing) is a much stronger source to hang a murder charge on than drunken bragging. Unless it led to the discovery of actual sound evidence. Wondering if he talked while 'off his chops' and can he say "nah I was just joking, making myself look tough". LE would then need corroborating evidence I suppose, to make it stick, yes? Very curious about that area of proof.

 

[Kemug]

What good is a trophy if you are in prison? I'm a long way from being 22, but do kids really think like this when accused of murder?

I don't know, but it might be his "blankie" for years and years. Ivan Milan seemed to derive a lot of pleasure and satisfaction from keeping his secrets. And he certainly took souvenirs.

 

[tiff]

That too. Is that kind of evidence admissible, if someone 'off chops' confesses something? I really don't know, I assume it would have to be tested and combined with other evidence. A credible eyewitness or accomplice under duress (or willing) is a much stronger source to hang a murder charge on than drunken bragging. Unless it led to the discovery of actual sound evidence. Wondering if he talked while 'off his chops' and can he say "nah I was just joking, making myself look tough". LE would then need corroborating evidence I suppose, to make it stick, yes? Very curious about that area of proof.

He could have been at the pub just having a few, carrying on as normal, mates have gone to get the next round, perfect time to re-live last weekends activity, and a complete stranger walking passed also saw it. And reported it, which is how they got onto him so early.
A run of the mill footballer isn’t an Einstein and I think he mucked up big time in a simple situation as above.

 

[Deleted member 293720]

As Troops says, somehow they're certain it was murder, by the accused, at that location... which makes it seem like they have so much more.

It could be related to evidence/forensic in the accused's car, vegetation, dirt etc

I have a feeling the accused could have filmed what happened to Samantha

which the police would then confirm she is dead

And be certain the accused has murdered SM

Even without a body

but the background, possibly in the video, could relate to the search area

with types of trees being shown, landscape layout etc

I still think there is more to this, something isn't right

 

[Voluspa]

I am trying to ascertain the probabilities - say compared to someone like Greg Lynn, if you are familiar with him?

Former pilot Greg Lynn to stand trial for alleged murders of Victorian campers Russell Hill and Carol Clay

Lynn has pleaded not guilty to murdering the pair, who went missing in 2020 while camping in the Wonnangatta Valley, north-east of Melbourne

www.theguardian.com

Not trying to derail? sorry.

But PS is 22 years old and has made mistakes - to bring him under arrest so far. IMO

Just trying to work out the probabilities of whether he is such a mastermind to successfully conceal SM longterm. Obviously they haven't found SM - so he has been successful. I am just wondering why that is?

Did he act impulsively first - regardless of risk - CCTV, phone pings but after that he was a mastermind. Is that possible?? MOO

IMO I feel this is more likely to be an impulsive act. I know it happens but 'planning' a murder so close to home isn't the smartest idea. Significant mistakes have been made and that's why he's sitting in a cell.

I feel SM's phone and watch aren't with her body, that they're likely to have been burnt/melted. I think she's been laid to rest outside of Ballarat.

Perhaps you are right about the impulsivity first - hard thinking later. Without knowing the 'mistake/s' that ultimately lead to his arrest, it'd hard to determine the level of thought/planning that has gone into things. If it was planned - it seems outlandishly brazen, being relatively close to populated areas, in broad daylight. Which would indeed line up with the potential of an impulsive attack initially.

I agree.

 

[Rocket333]

Aha, so SM had both her phone and watch with her. It was unclear whether she only had her watch.

Did we ever hear any more about Sam wearing air pods/ear buds whilst jogging?
Small things that may have filled her ears with sound, been connected to her watch and/or phone, and may have fallen out easily.

 

[ProfCluezo]

IMO I feel this is more likely to be an impulsive act. I know it happens but 'planning' a murder so close to home isn't the smartest idea. Significant mistakes have been made and that's why he's sitting in a cell.

I feel SM's phone and watch aren't with her body, that they're likely to have been burnt/melted. I think she's been laid to rest outside of Ballarat.



I agree.

Open to this theory, but assuming you are correct, why do you think the police are continuing to do so many searches still around Mt Clear?

Where do you think the remains of the electronic devices would be?

And how far beyond Ballarat are you hypothesising the body is buried?

Are you suggesting that the accused had no interest in keeping at least some of Samantha’s personal possessions? No desire for “trophies”?

While I’m open to all theories, my sense is that even if it was an impulsive act it did not come from nowhere. I suspect the accused had preexisting propensities towards violence regardless of whether the alleged murder was planned or impulsive. Things like an insecure attachment style, longstanding insecurities in sense of self, impulse regulation difficulties, labile moods etc. But all entirely just my opinion.

 

[SouthAussie]

/
On Thursday afternoon, a police spokesperson said there was no update and the search was winding up for the day.

Officers have been searching the area, along with Australian Federal Police technology detection dogs trained to look for items such as phone SIM cards or other devices.

Search for Ballarat woman Samantha Murphy wraps up for day

A fresh search in the case of missing woman Samantha Murphy has been wound up, after efforts to find any trace of the 51-year-old again proved unsuccessful.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Mr_X]

I think it's very interesting the areas the police are now searching in. IMO the suspect hasn't talked, but the police would now be analysing his friends and/or families mobile phone locations, looking to see if any of them went into bush areas after the disappearance. That is why they are searching closer to his residence, and are searching multiple areas. Just my opinion

 

[Rocket333]

He could have been at the pub just having a few, carrying on as normal, mates have gone to get the next round, perfect time to re-live last weekends activity, and a complete stranger walking passed also saw it. And reported it, which is how they got onto him so early.
A run of the mill footballer isn’t an Einstein and I think he mucked up big time in a simple situation as above.

The gf would know him and his routines very well, and would be attuned to his moods and habits, and sensitive to changes in him and their relationship. Living together would heighten all of this for her and she’d be aware of his whereabouts and plans each day. If she had nothing to do with it, you wonder if she picked up on a change in him or his activity or if she was oblivious. This pic, from 10th Feb out the front of his family home, gives off a relaxed ‘just going about as usual’ vibe for her don’t you think?

 

[ProfCluezo]

It is truly heartbreaking to read reports from numerous MSM sources today that Mike is continuing to plead for any information that will help to locate Samantha’s body. Mikes plea

I suspect this plea is mainly directed to others in the community who may not yet have come forward with vital pieces of intelligence/evidence, rather than to the accused... ? JMO.

 

[T-dawg420]

I’ve got the feeling that SM’s death was an impulsive act, and her body disposal was a lot more thought out.

I feel the perp was tracked in the location because of his phone, and the gps signal it puts out. It still baffles me in today’s climate, that people committing crimes take their phones with them, a walking tracking device! Esp someone of young age, who’s apparently quite tech savvy and smart (being an electrician and bring a supposed next elon musk wannabe according to friends).

If he was in fact, traced from his gps to the area of SM at the same time, then it’s a huge mistake. It’s why I believe he was under the influence at the time. I think he’s committed the act, and then hidden SM in the same area, and then Come back many hours later to dispose of her body. He allowed time for any substance to leave his system, becoming more level headed and more lucid in thinking. He’s also doing this late Sunday arvo/early evening, when he feels safer in the fact people might not be out at that time. I believe the 5pm ping of SM’s device is accurate and it happened while the perp was disposing of her body.

Once he’s more clear headed, he’s left his phone at home to dispose of the body, which is why LE cannot get a clear location on where she is.

I think of Jesse Baird and Luke Davies, how LE only found their location from the perps direct information. LE literally drove past the spot where they were buried while looking somewhere else. I guess if they didn’t get the info from the perp, they might not have found them at all.

I also feel there is a good chance some of, if not all of the crime was captured on cctv by happenstance.

This is purely speculative and IMO.

 

[Rocket333]

I’ve got the feeling that SM’s death was an impulsive act, and her body disposal was a lot more thought out.

I feel the perp was tracked in the location because of his phone, and the gps signal it puts out. It still baffles me in today’s climate, that people committing crimes take their phones with them, a walking tracking device! Esp someone of young age, who’s apparently quite tech savvy and smart (being an electrician and bring a supposed next elon musk wannabe according to friends).

If he was in fact, traced from his gps to the area of SM at the same time, then it’s a huge mistake. It’s why I believe he was under the influence at the time. I think he’s committed the act, and then hidden SM in the same area, and then Come back many hours later to dispose of her body. He allowed time for any substance to leave his system, becoming more level headed and more lucid in thinking. He’s also doing this late Sunday arvo/early evening, when he feels safer in the fact people might not be out at that time. I believe the 5pm ping of SM’s device is accurate and it happened while the perp was disposing of her body.

Once he’s more clear headed, he’s left his phone at home to dispose of the body, which is why LE cannot get a clear location on where she is.

I think of Jesse Baird and Luke Davies, how LE only found their location from the perps direct information. LE literally drove past the spot where they were buried while looking somewhere else. I guess if they didn’t get the info from the perp, they might not have found them at all.

I also feel there is a good chance some of, if not all of the crime was captured on cctv by happenstance.

This is purely speculative and IMO.

It also reminds me of Sissy Austin who was attacked a year before SM. Sissy was knocked unconscious and when she woke up she thought she’d left her phone in her car. She hiked back to her car 4k’s away only to realise the phone was on her the whole time and was tucked in her top. Sissy explains this in the ‘Under Investigation’ show around the 17:30 mark.
What if SM, like Sissy, had her phone tucked away out of sight and in the haste, it was overlooked until later in the day.

 

[Ooohm]

Followed enough missing persons cases in Australia to believe it isn’t difficult or clever to hide a body, just evil.

Edit to add: The police are 100% going to find Samantha IMO

 

[ProfCluezo]

I’ve got the feeling that SM’s death was an impulsive act, and her body disposal was a lot more thought out.

I really like the way you’ve laid out your theory in its entirety Y-dang420, and the rationale for the separate elements.

Makes it really clear. To me it sounds entirely plausible.

Anyone else brave enough to offer their provisional theory based on what we know at this stage of the investigation?

 

[SouthAussie]

The media are being pretty good about not saying where the police were searching today. You'd think they probably know. They seem to be pretty good at sniffing out police movements ... especially when they are announced.

"Police have been combing an undisclosed area within the Ballarat region" . Link

I wonder if it was a forest area, or a house and property, or ......

imo

 

[Nikynoo]

I’ve got the feeling that SM’s death was an impulsive act, and her body disposal was a lot more thought out.

I feel the perp was tracked in the location because of his phone, and the gps signal it puts out. It still baffles me in today’s climate, that people committing crimes take their phones with them, a walking tracking device! Esp someone of young age, who’s apparently quite tech savvy and smart (being an electrician and bring a supposed next elon musk wannabe according to friends).

If he was in fact, traced from his gps to the area of SM at the same time, then it’s a huge mistake. It’s why I believe he was under the influence at the time. I think he’s committed the act, and then hidden SM in the same area, and then Come back many hours later to dispose of her body. He allowed time for any substance to leave his system, becoming more level headed and more lucid in thinking. He’s also doing this late Sunday arvo/early evening, when he feels safer in the fact people might not be out at that time. I believe the 5pm ping of SM’s device is accurate and it happened while the perp was disposing of her body.

Once he’s more clear headed, he’s left his phone at home to dispose of the body, which is why LE cannot get a clear location on where she is.

I think of Jesse Baird and Luke Davies, how LE only found their location from the perps direct information. LE literally drove past the spot where they were buried while looking somewhere else. I guess if they didn’t get the info from the perp, they might not have found them at all.

I also feel there is a good chance some of, if not all of the crime was captured on cctv by happenstance.

This is purely speculative and IMO.

I like this theory. The only thing I would add is that 'the act' was not intended, but a result of being in charge of a motor vehicle whilst under the influence.