Big storm in California?

So whats all this hype about an "Atmospheric River" storm starting today in California. Is this for real or is it just a "chicken Little" thing. I do see severe weather warnings,but is it anything unusual.

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-forecast/california-flood-threat-20121126

HockeyMom, I think it's just a new term for an old event...we've got a mass of air parked and circling just off the coast of N. CA/Oregon (I think), and all it's doing is circulating. The circulation picks up water/evap from the ocean, and then dumps it onto the land it's near.

I don't think it's going to flood like it did in the 1890s (I think), where all of the SF area was under water...nor do I think it will reproduce the flooding in the LA Basin area like it did in the 30s (again, iirc).

It may indeed dump a lot of rain, but it will rain over about 5 days, so it's not as if it will rain an inch an hour...

Bear in mind, however, that I am:
~NOT a meteorologist;
~wrong on a regular basis;
and
~lovin' the fact we're gonna get some rain.

Will there be flooding? Sure...always is, you know? I doubt it will be the storm of the century, and while there is always a potential for a huge event, I don't think we're looking at anything more than a good storm. There have been shows and discussions on a killer superstorm in the area on television in the past, and it definitely *is* possible, but I don't think this is that one.

Also, keep in mind that I often joke that if a raindrop falls within 100 miles of my location, we go on "STORM WATCH", and everyone panics.

And, again, bear in mind that I'm in So CA, so don't necessarily know what's going on in N. CA or Oregon...and a quick check on my brother's area (in Oregon) shows that they are expecting some flooding, but again, not the devastation that might be inferred.

Meh. I'll let you know if anything strange happens down here; right now, I think we're just looking at showers and some winds...again, in So. CA...

Best-
Herding Cats

HI again.

Here is a much less "scary" prediction, from Wunderground.com, a place that I find is a bit more accurate than other sites. (ETA: Sigh. It would help if I included the link):

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/shauntanner/show.html?entrynum=220

This article also gives the common name for the "atmospheric river", which is "Pineapple Express"...where a plume of moisture comes from around Hawai'i and hits our shores.

10 inches of rain sound like a lot, but remember this, too...it's been super dry here for a while, and we have very low level streams and rivers all over CA; not only that, but a lot of farmland has been parched. This will hold a whole lot of the rain that's expected, if it even goes to the max inches.

While I do expect mudslides and rockslides and the occasional flooding of streets and whatnot, I don't think it will be a deluge, and I doubt very much that it will be anything near catastrophic. If 10 inches of rain fell in, say, 24 hours...yes, that would be a bit too much, even for the dry conditions we have. But 10 inches over at least 4 days doesn't seem to be that bad, and will allow for soaking into a very dry, parched ground.

So, even after researching a bit, I'm not worried. That might be because I'm in So CA where we won't see the 10 inches forecast, but I'm still not too worried about No CA and So Oregon.

I think we'll be all right.

Best-
Herding Cats

It's been raining steadily and heavy here for about the last 4 hours. It sucks. Just when I have the time to run errands, I have no desire to run out and get wet!!! The only upside is I won't have to refill my pool.

I'm in so. Oregon. Last week we had a massive storm that led to flooding all over the county and a lot of property damage, etc. Now we are expected to get more with this storm. It is potentially devastating in my little town, but we are praying that is not the case!

As HC explains with better detail, it's an "atmospheric river" in that it pulls moisture directly from the tropics to the West Coast. It's something that happens almost every year. The quantity of water varies, so we'll see...

and it's positively winter like in southern california....eeeks, had to turn the heater on. (Please don't look it up and see that it's still in the 60's, it feels so much colder.)

yeah, I am in So. OR too. It has been raining a good portion of the week for most of Nov. Even though it hasn't rained in a few days my yard is still all mud...so people here are kinda worried. They are saying 6-12 inches??? They are also warning of mudslides/snow.

I try to take all this with a grain of salt, but I can't help but remember all the old accounts (I think from the 50's and one from early 1900's) when there were massive floods: houses and livestock floating away, bridges washing out, etc.

The most annoying part: no one has finished raking their leaves yet. So now we will have a sodden rotting wet leaf mess to pick up...

At least you are not my neighbor. They just started re-roofing on Monday.

Charlie09 said:

and it's positively winter like in southern california....eeeks, had to turn the heater on. (Please don't look it up and see that it's still in the 60's, it feels so much colder.)

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Yea,I'm really feeling for you Charlie,since its in the 30's here!!!:boohoo: The bottom line is no matter where you live,its not perfect. Although So. Cal is as close to perfect as it gets IMO.
Well I hope everyone stays dry out west. I feel anyday without snow is a good day,and in another month its downhill til simmer in my neck of the woods.

No Cal checking in... it's been somewhat ordinary wind and rain in my neck of the woods, but it's the slow mover that's coming tomorrow that's likely to stall over the region and fill the creeks to overflowing.

This is the type of storm we usually get after we have a huge snow pack at risk-- at this time, we don't have inches of snow to melt and feed into the rivers on top of the rain. I think our flood systems will handle the load of the rain alone.

The only thing I worry about is the potential debris from a slide (in the burn areas or other at risk points-- just being dry is a risk for slides) choking up the rivers or damaging levees.

Mostly, I think everyone will be fine if they slow down while driving. Sheesh, there are some nuts out there. MOO :seeya:

Quiche said:

No Cal checking in... it's been somewhat ordinary wind and rain in my neck of the woods, but it's the slow mover that's coming tomorrow that's likely to stall over the region and fill the creeks to overflowing.

This is the type of storm we usually get after we have a huge snow pack at risk-- at this time, we don't have inches of snow to melt and feed into the rivers on top of the rain. I think our flood systems will handle the load of the rain alone.

The only thing I worry about is the potential debris from a slide (in the burn areas or other at risk points-- just being dry is a risk for slides) choking up the rivers or damaging levees.

Mostly, I think everyone will be fine if they slow down while driving. Sheesh, there are some nuts out there. MOO :seeya:

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Fortunately, I just got new tires last week because I was hydroplaining in the last rain.

hockeymom said:

Yea,I'm really feeling for you Charlie,since its in the 30's here!!!:boohoo: The bottom line is no matter where you live,its not perfect. Although So. Cal is as close to perfect as it gets IMO.
Well I hope everyone stays dry out west. I feel anyday without snow is a good day,and in another month its downhill til simmer in my neck of the woods.

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:giggle: I may have to go buy socks, surely that pulls on your heartstrings...

The most briefest of rain showers this afternoon, maybe 10 seconds...and since then, nothing. Sigh. I love the rain, and want it to get here already...nothing settles me to sleep more than listening to the rain on this house's roof.

Here's hoping that we all enjoy the rain as much as I do, you know?

Best-
Herding Cats

It has been sprinkling here ,on and off, all day. [ LA/Ventura County Line] We are even using the fire place tonight.

My neighbors have a full house sized tarp over their roof. I hope it does not rain any harder before they get the roof finished.

So only a bit of rain overnight...not too much at all.

According to the reports I've read this morning, this second and the third storm, however, will be pretty big for Northern California. There is a river predicted to get to at least flood stage, and that is 23 feet...the river right now is at 2 feet. Which means a whole lot of water will be coming down, if that prediction is accurate. (Navarro River at Navarro).

As for me, I'm not near any flood prone areas, and I don't think this storm will do it down here anyway.

It could be pretty bad for those in the direct path of this storm - seems to be locked on to Northern California/Southern Oregon. Rain is forecast through Sunday, so it will be a bit before the worst happens.

Still, I think that it won't be as bad as feared. The ground is sooooo dry - so deeply dry - that a lot of the rain will soak in and have somewhere to go.

Best-
Herding Cats

PS: Katy, I was going to have a fire, but forgot to light it. LOL. I'll do it tonight, I'm sure.

Send the rain here please...I can count on my one hand the times it has rained since the Spring. Of course it would be snow here but that is OK.

"Pineapple Express" is one of my favorite movies.

Herding Cats said:

HI again.

Here is a much less "scary" prediction, from Wunderground.com, a place that I find is a bit more accurate than other sites. (ETA: Sigh. It would help if I included the link):

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/shauntanner/show.html?entrynum=220

This article also gives the common name for the "atmospheric river", which is "Pineapple Express"...where a plume of moisture comes from around Hawai'i and hits our shores.

10 inches of rain sound like a lot, but remember this, too...it's been super dry here for a while, and we have very low level streams and rivers all over CA; not only that, but a lot of farmland has been parched. This will hold a whole lot of the rain that's expected, if it even goes to the max inches.

While I do expect mudslides and rockslides and the occasional flooding of streets and whatnot, I don't think it will be a deluge, and I doubt very much that it will be anything near catastrophic. If 10 inches of rain fell in, say, 24 hours...yes, that would be a bit too much, even for the dry conditions we have. But 10 inches over at least 4 days doesn't seem to be that bad, and will allow for soaking into a very dry, parched ground.

So, even after researching a bit, I'm not worried. That might be because I'm in So CA where we won't see the 10 inches forecast, but I'm still not too worried about No CA and So Oregon.

I think we'll be all right.

Best-
Herding Cats

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Southern Oregon reporting in...

high winds last night and through the night. Then about 4 ish?? in the morning rain started. It is raining pretty hard and still raining.

It is warm here though and I am looking up to the mtns and no snow. So we will see...

Storm #1 ended here in N. CA about 1p.m. yesterday. Waiting on #2 and #3, just when I have to go to work! At least next week, there should be some time when it's nice and clear...

There's plenty of room in the major California reservoirs at this time to handle runoff. Here's a link to the CDWR showing reservoir levels. You can get all kinds of data at this link.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/resapp/getResGraphsMain.action