WA WA - Shantina Smiley, 29, & Azriel Carver, 8 (fnd deceased), Olympia, Mar 2010 - #3

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A witness that saw the van in the morning said it was almost submerged, it had to be daylight for him to see it so that must have been right after high tide.
I am still having a hard time with no signs on Zangle at least saying "pavement ends" or "dead end", "no outlet", something.............
 
RubyRed said:
I think they were sleeping and awoke to high tide, The shock of getting out in that cold water would take your breath away. The waves could knock you down and on top of that it was dark. Who knows if she even remembered the van was backed in. They could have went right into deep water, thinking they were heading towards shore. Add disorientation from sleeping and if alcohol is involved, it is a disaster in the making.
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The logistics of this are what I don't get. She had to have opened the doors before she, as you and others think, fell asleep. This would have made it impossible to stay warm and just decide to go to sleep. I think that is the least possible scenario. To have opened them when the tide is already in makes no sense as it would have been deeper in the rear.

Also, a poster already stated that the homes above had lights. She would have seen those upon "waking" since facing that way. So to head into deeper water instead would be willful on her part.
 
houndstooth said:
A 14 foot tide change does not necessarily mean it was 14 feet higher where the van was. Just 14ft higher than the deepest part of the water at low tide. Then it radiates that water outward. The high water mark comes further inland gradually. It does not appear that the road is 14-20 feet above the beach level from photos so....It's conceivable that the van was only covered about halfway up the sides at that range.
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Thanks Hound - you explained it better than I did!
 
houndstooth said:
A 14 foot tide change does not necessarily mean it was 14 feet higher where the van was. Just 14ft higher than the deepest part of the water at low tide. Then it radiates that water outward. The high water mark comes further inland gradually. It does not appear that the road is 14-20 feet above the beach level from photos so....It's conceivable that the van was only covered about halfway up the sides at that range.
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According to Det. Stines the van was covered.

On Sunday morning, a nearby resident found their minivan, doors open and keys on the dash, partially submerged and stuck in the mud near Dana Passage. At high tide, it appeared the water covered the van, Stines said.
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http://www.kitsapsun.com/news/2010/mar/19/missing-boys-death-ruled-accidental/?print=1
 
Also from that article that Ruby posted earlier:

http://www.kitsapsun.com/news/2010/mar/19/missing-boys-death-ruled-accidental/?print=1

n 2005, Smiley received a deferred prosecution in a drunken-driving and hit-and-run case out of Castle Rock. In April of that year, she allegedly swiped a parked truck and fled on foot, according to documents obtained by the Kitsap Sun. The police report alleges Smiley was too intoxicated to perform field-sobriety tests safely and claims a breath test revealed a blood-alcohol level of 0.243, three times the legal limit.
 
Based on that article, she has a history of drinking & driving (as has been discussed before, but just wanted to clarify the blood alcohol level in the previous incident, in case it hadn't been posted before) and fleeing the scene of an accident (hit & run).

IMO, if she was intoxicated either before or after she parked on the beach, and if her intoxication led to her son's accidental drowning, then she's guilty of at least negligent homicide (regardless of whether or not she's still alive).

ETA: a blood alcohol level of 3 times the legal limit & the hit & run explains why she had a 5 year deferred sentence. When I first heard about the 5 yr. deferred sentence, I thought it sounded like a long time to be on probation, but now I understand why.

She had no business going on a "wine-tasting" vacation.
 
Some info on Tides in the area

tidesta781.png


781.png


Budd Inlet, Olympia Shoal, Puget Sound, Washington
47.1000° N, 122.8966° W

2010-03-21 11:40 PM PDT 13.04 feet High Tide
2010-03-22 4:53 AM PDT 7.86 feet Low Tide
2010-03-22 7:10 AM PDT Sunrise
2010-03-22 9:39 AM PDT 13.19 feet High Tide
2010-03-22 5:26 PM PDT -0.16 feet Low Tide
2010-03-22 7:27 PM PDT Sunset
2010-03-23 12:58 AM PDT 13.17 feet High Tide
2010-03-23 4:00 AM PDT First Quarter
2010-03-23 6:06 AM PDT 8.34 feet Low Tide
2010-03-23 7:08 AM PDT Sunrise
2010-03-23 10:35 AM PDT 12.61 feet High Tide
2010-03-23 6:30 PM PDT -0.04 feet Low Tide
2010-03-23 7:28 PM PDT Sunset
2010-03-24 2:11 AM PDT 13.58 feet High Tide
2010-03-24 7:06 AM PDT Sunrise
2010-03-24 7:35 AM PDT 8.21 feet Low Tide
2010-03-24 11:53 AM PDT 12.07 feet High Tide
2010-03-24 7:30 PM PDT Sunset
2010-03-24 7:38 PM PDT 0.08 feet Low Tide
2010-03-25 3:09 AM PDT 14.13 feet High Tide
2010-03-25 7:04 AM PDT Sunrise
2010-03-25 8:56 AM PDT 7.37 feet Low Tide
2010-03-25 1:22 PM PDT 11.87 feet High Tide
2010-03-25 7:31 PM PDT Sunset
2010-03-25 8:44 PM PDT 0.22 feet Low Tide
2010-03-26 3:54 AM PDT 14.64 feet High Tide


http://images.google.com/imgres?img...hl=en&sa=G&rls=com.microsoft:en-us&tbs=isch:1
 
Why would she open the doors when she got stuck, thats ridiculous? The doors were more than likely opened when they got out and then left open. In any of the films did she have a jacket of anykind or just the sweatshirt jacket?
I keep thinking she hit something on that beach or when exiting the paved road. I wonder how fast she was going? Google makes Zangle look distantly wide until it gets to the last house.
I keep wondering how low a person body temp would get sleeping under those circumstances, 32 degrees in a car.
 
justme96 said:
I think RS knows more than what he is saying. She could have planned on meeting someone. It seems as if RS was not meant to go on this trip and he was trying to catch up with her.

The shoes that washed ashore were a womens size 9(RS ID'd, belonged to SS) and a Mens 13 (not ID'd).

Although in Eastern Washington, in Feb a seventeen year old goes missing and they find her car on a dead end with keys inside.

I think Police should look at her computer to see who she was talking to online and what kind of things have been said. There is much more going on with why these events happened.

Most of us don't think RS did anything but we sure feel like she was running from something. In one of the irst interviews he pleaded for them if they were out there to just come home and he wanted to marry her. My first thought on that was that she was running.
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I think it was determined a couple of days ago on one of these threads that was a boy's size 13 shoe that belonged to Azriel not a man's size 13.
 
houndstooth said:
In my case I am not sleuthing the guy and do not think he had anything to do with their disappearance directly. I am trying to get into the mind of SS.
to try to understand her actions that evening. It has to do with her mental state concerning him. I see clear signs of avoidance. He is a victim of circumstance as far as I am concerned.
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that is exactly it. very well stated.
 
it is annoying how different things are reported in the media....

because I agree that I read in one of the news reports that the water reached the top of the seats but now apparently the police are saying that the van was submerged....

it does change things.....

I have asked this before but an not sure if it was answered........

can some one please tell me if for instance they fell asleep where they got stuck and the water started seeping in ........say they were sleeping horizontally across the seats ....it would come up quite a way before they would start getting wet.....

at this water level would it be possible to open the door????? or would the water pressure not allow it.......
 
Cher352 said:
I think it was determined a couple of days ago on one of these threads that was a boy's size 13 shoe that belonged to Azriel not a man's size 13.
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No it was not determined and local news said it was a Mans shoe. There was debate about it here but when the pictures came out and RS ID'd the atricles that belnged to SS and ZC it was said to be a womans size 9 and a Mans size 13.
 
Okay before anyone shoots down or discounts what I am about to say just remember that we're here to look at ALL possibilities, scenarios, etc. Without talking about and disproving all irrelevant or incorrect scenarios or facts that are dealing with this extremely mysterious tragedy that has occured, without doing all of that we may never figure just what brought an innocent child's short life to the tragic end. That said, here goes something I just want to "throw out there". It infact may have already been discussed but I have not come across any post that even points in this direction. What do we know about the Williams(the last people known to see mom&son)? Originally I was under the belief that it was a much older couple, even somewhat elderly. But after spending the last 24hrs. searching thru all news links and interviews pertaining to this case and upon seeing video interviews of the Williams I realize they are NOT elderly, not even near an older couple. In fact also have teenaged son that also was home that night. I am sure that LE is/has looked into them, especially since they are the last, on record, to see AZ alive.
What if Shantina and AZ never left that residence? They easily couldve "staged" that van scene on the beach. They are some of the only people in this world that WOULD KNOW of&how to get to that private piece of beach.(I'll have to look for link but in a report I believe was taken last Sunday from them, they state that they even drove there next day in "daylight" after hearing of the news). As I said, this is just a scenario that I'm putting out there and am NOT saying that I even believe it to be true. But am racking my brain to go thru every single possibility and scenario that couldve happened. And as many tragic stories that we discuss everyday this scenario would not be out of the realm of possibilities. As I said they couldve staged van on beach, disposed of or even drowned little AZ there at the van sight and then there could be all kinds of scenarios of what has been done and what was the plan to do with Shantina. I mean a young, attractive, possibly inebriated woman& her young son going up to a stranger's door late at night& in the middle of nowhere? Most of us would be extremely hesitant to do this? And for what reason would most of us feel extremely hesitant to do this? For the exact reason that I am saying this theory now. Because of the strangers that are behind that door you would be knocking on. There would be too much risk of what could be done to yourself&your child. Im just asking what if? What if thats what happened when her cloudy judgement took her to knocking on a strangers door with her lil boy right next to her????? AND OF COURSE THIS IS JUST AN OPINION, A THEORY. AND AS I SAID, I AM NOT SAYING THAT IT IS MY BELIEF. jUST ONE OF THE MANY MANY SCENARIOS THAT COULDVE OCCURED LAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
 
jessigirl said:
Okay before anyone shoots down or discounts what I am about to say just remember that we're here to look at ALL possibilities, scenarios, etc. Without talking about and disproving all irrelevant or incorrect scenarios or facts that are dealing with this extremely mysterious tragedy that has occured, without doing all of that we may never figure just what brought an innocent child's short life to the tragic end. That said, here goes something I just want to "throw out there". It infact may have already been discussed but I have not come across any post that even points in this direction. What do we know about the Williams(the last people known to see mom&son)? Originally I was under the belief that it was a much older couple, even somewhat elderly. But after spending the last 24hrs. searching thru all news links and interviews pertaining to this case and upon seeing video interviews of the Williams I realize they are NOT elderly, not even near an older couple. In fact also have teenaged son that also was home that night. I am sure that LE is/has looked into them, especially since they are the last, on record, to see AZ alive.
What if Shantina and AZ never left that residence? They easily couldve "staged" that van scene on the beach. They are some of the only people in this world that WOULD KNOW of&how to get to that private piece of beach.(I'll have to look for link but in a report I believe was taken last Sunday from them, they state that they even drove there next day in "daylight" after hearing of the news). As I said, this is just a scenario that I'm putting out there and am NOT saying that I even believe it to be true. But am racking my brain to go thru every single possibility and scenario that couldve happened. And as many tragic stories that we discuss everyday this scenario would not be out of the realm of possibilities. As I said they couldve staged van on beach, disposed of or even drowned little AZ there at the van sight and then there could be all kinds of scenarios of what has been done and what was the plan to do with Shantina. I mean a young, attractive, possibly inebriated woman& her young son going up to a stranger's door late at night& in the middle of nowhere? Most of us would be extremely hesitant to do this? And for what reason would most of us feel extremely hesitant to do this? For the exact reason that I am saying this theory now. Because of the strangers that are behind that door you would be knocking on. There would be too much risk of what could be done to yourself&your child. Im just asking what if? What if thats what happened when her cloudy judgement took her to knocking on a strangers door with her lil boy right next to her????? AND OF COURSE THIS IS JUST AN OPINION, A THEORY. AND AS I SAID, I AM NOT SAYING THAT IT IS MY BELIEF. jUST ONE OF THE MANY MANY SCENARIOS THAT COULDVE OCCURED LAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
Click to expand...

A family is just sitting home at night and a stranger comes to the door with a child and they decide to do something to them? And the motive would be? Is everyone that talked to her that day a suspect? Why is it hard to believe that the most obvious happened. A woman, not using good judgment, drove her car onto a beach and got stuck and not thinking too well, for whatever reason, decided to stay there until morning and then get help, not taking into account the tide coming in. I don't think you need to be a rocket scientist to figure it out. No one did harm to them, it was a series of bad decisions that lead them to that beach and ultimately their deaths.
 
Dairygirl
A family is just sitting home at night and a stranger comes to the door with a child and they decide to do something to them? And the motive would be? Is everyone that talked to her that day a suspect? Why is it hard to believe that the most obvious happened. A woman, not using good judgment, drove her car onto a beach and got stuck and not thinking too well, for whatever reason, decided to stay there until morning and then get help, not taking into account the tide coming in. I don't think you need to be a rocket scientist to figure it out. No one did harm to them, it was a series of bad decisions that lead them to that beach and ultimately their deaths.[QUOTE/]
Reply With QuoteAs I said in my post(&I believe thats exactly what these Bulletin Boards are
for)Im going thru ALL possibilities or scenarios. I do not find it IMPOSSIBLE to believe that her bad judgement led to what "seems" to be the most likely scenario, them being swept out and drowned,etc. But I am obviously NOT alone in my thinking there are many possibilities that coulda, shoulda, woulda happened that Saturday night. And that's exactly where I was "coming from" with my last post. That is it. Nothing more than a possibility. ( and if you look at just the last 12mos of different crimes across just the U.S. it certainly is NOT unheard of that an innocent victim fell prey to rapist, murderer, etc. and for no other reason than accidentally crossing paths at the wrong place, at the wrong time and it be nothing more than unexpected opportunity for said perpetrator)And because of such horrors having happened it is the EXACT REASON WHY MOST OF US WOULD BE EXTREMELY HESITANT TO KNOCK ON A COMPLETE STRANGERS DOOR LATE@NIGHT&IN THE MIDDLE OF NOWHERE(Just as I also said in my post)
Click to expand...
 
Dairygirl, It may not take a "rocket scientist to figure it out" as you said. As is the case in so many crimes we discuss(Caylee Anthony for sure)as well as so many others. But Im not alone in believing that there are numerous possibilities that could have happened last Saturday night to a mom and son and that is exactly what we are here freely, openly, and without criticism doing here by voicing our varying opinions and possible scenarios on this case and others. Trying to make sense of what "seems" to be such a senseless and tragic event.
 
at this water level would it be possible to open the door????? or would the water pressure not allow it.......
Click to expand...
_
Respectfully snipped

ReVampz-
Ive asked this question too. I believe if the water had already gotten to seat level(as you said with them laying horizontally sleeping)that they would NOT be able to open any doors that actually do "open up" as in the reported driver's side door that was found open and also the back hatch. As for the passenger side door that would open to the backseat area(that was also reported to be found open) it was actually a sliding open type of door. And for that door I would "think" it could possibly open(and would think depending on exactly how high water was at exact time of sliding it open, that it would flood, rush the water into the vehicle) But by all means I'm no expert, so don't know that to be fact.
 
hi all,
have been, i guess you'd say 'lurking here' for the past few days & finally feel compelled to offer up some possibilities that have only lightly been touched upon ...or some perhaps not at all ( have read most of the posts for the last 4 1/2 days but not a lot before that )

HOME 'AWAY'

Contrary to most reports, Shantina & Azriel lived with her fiance, Robb & his children, in Island Lake, which is actually north of Silverdale & between Keyport & Silverdale, if you know the area. Real Estate Brokers will sometimes refer to the Island Lake Park area as even being part of Poulsbo as opposed to Silverdale, ostensibly to stay away from all the connotations that 'Silverdale' might bring up (Bangor Trident Nuclear Base, sprawling series of ugly malls, etc.). Although Island Park is not really that close to Poulsbo either.
I have not been able to find his/her home address (nor do i particularly care to) but my guess is that they probably lived very close to the lake (called Island Lake) if not actually on the lake itself. What difference does this make ? Perhaps not much, but it could help explain a difficulty with 'bearings'.
Their home was near a fairly static body of water on a large glorified island which is more or less surrounded by an extremely tidal-dependant & continually fluctuating, mutable Puget Sound. The entire body of land that supports all of the aforementioned towns (as well as Bremerton & many others) is as close as one can get to being an actual island without literally by definition being one (there is one small point less than 2 miles wide that connects to the 'mainland' which is itself a peninsula).
I myself had two relatives who lived on the west skirt of the Sound (near Port Townsend) in the middle of a long peninsula. They were still near the Sound, as well as a couple freshwater marshes up top, and for over a dozen years they argued that their houses were aligned East-West. They built these houses themselves & lived in them for that whole time, yet failed to see how disoriented they were (I, & my north-south 'theory' were eventually proved correct when Google Earth satellite imagery was released). What i'm suggesting then is that even the most otherwise intelligent, rational people can get misled & turned around in these parts, some even for extended periods of time !
In certain areas of the Sound, especially at night, Neptunian or Poseidian qualities (to borrow the old Greco-Roman models) persist & one could even say, at times, seemingly reign.
 
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