Atlantic 2013 Tropical Weather and Maps

ShowMe. Depends, We will start will Breaking News and move to regions so people can get updates without weeding through the breaking weather.

If 91L is named, I will start a separate thread at that time. I will use this thread for the start of the storms, Like I have done with 91L, she may fizzle there is a lot of dry air that could wrap around or invade the storm.

Hoping 91L fizzles out. Heard we are supposed to have a very active hurricane season.
 
Tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
800 am edt tue jun 4 2013

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak area of low
pressure over the central gulf of mexico have not become any better
organized since yesterday. Most of the shower activity is still
located east and southeast of the low due to strong upper-level
winds. Conditions could become a little more favorable for slow
development during the next day or two...before the low interacts
with an upper-level trough. This system has a medium chance...30
percent...of becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours as it drifts generally northward or north-
northeastward. Regardless of development...locally heavy rains are
likely to continue over the northeastern yucatan peninsula...
Central and western cuba...as well as the florida keys and the
florida peninsula during the next several days.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
 
at201391_sat.jpg


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201391_sat.html
 
Intensity forecast model for Invest 91L. Some have it as a tropical depression, while others have it as a tropical storm. If named, it would be Andrea.
 

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Notice the nice waves coming off Africa in the above post.

Other Note if 91L is named I will start a separate thread
 
I am waiting on Recon reports

It has been cancelled.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 041516
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT TUE 04 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-004

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- GULF OG MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 05/1730Z
D. 24.0N 89.0W
E. 05/1830Z TO 05/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 06/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 06/0415Z
D. 25.5N 88.0W
E. 06/0530 TO 06/1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL FIX MISSION
NEAR 27.0N AND 86.0W AT 06/1800Z

3. REMARKS: THE IVEST SCHEDULED FOR 04/1900Z WAS CANX
BY NHC AT 04/1300Z.


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WVW

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml
 
ECMWF has it riding the east coast. The idea of it over water makes sense due to the warm water.
 
I'm getting rain...4-7" over the next 2 days...

Sent from my LG Spirit using Tapatalk 2
 
8pm update

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ARE LOCATED WELL
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO BEFORE THE LOW INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND BEGINS TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
 
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml


8am report 50% chance now

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS INCREASED
OVERNIGHT...THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY-DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM
COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...AND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
 

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