Australia - Allison Baden-Clay, 43, Brisbane QLD, 19 April 2012 #19

[Fuskier]

Advice from the Land Search Operations Manual for search and rescue operations in Australia, and I think it's useful for sleuths too:

Bolded by me. From Chapter 5: Techniques and Operations, p.122. The whole manual is available in sections and each section is a PDF:
http://natsar.amsa.gov.au/Manuals/Land_Search_Operations_Manual/index.asp

STORMBIRD: Your contribution is a helpful contribution to this thread. Thank you for giving us some guidelines on clue recognition and investigative techniques. Much appreciated.

 

[marlywings]

Morning all. Did anyone read The Age 'Good Weekend' about the Elizabeth Membry case. There is a good article in there about Police Investigations. The Detectives state that investigations must be proved by 'facts' not Police theories. The Police are the responsible authority to interview, cross-reference and consider all of the evidence in their possession. We do not know what 'evidence' they have, nor should we.
This forum is a crime discussion forum, our 'everyday ordinary theories' are for our discussion only and have no bearing on the Police Investigation. MOO.

Absolutely agree Fuskier re the "evidence" police have....by now it's seven weeks worth of evidence & they still have 15 detectives working on the case.

Theories/opinions/guessing, whatever anyone wants to call, is all it can be on here.

 

[Fuskier]

What about the above scenario BUT... By the time the police arrive (after being called by neighbors) Alison is already dead. When police arrive,GBC says 'No officer-no disturbance here. I'm on my own. My wife has just gone out for a walk.' Then has to wait some time to call family members to come and assist in cover up and hatches plan of supposed suicide. Then has to call police in morning to say that she didn't return from her walk and this is why police are immediately suspicious. IMO

Good point. This is plausible and needs to be equally considered in the mix - as we don't know what was said to the Police on the Thursday night when the neighbours allegedly called them. In addition, it is interesting that the Police did state in MSM that maybe Allison could have been missing from as early as 8.00pm on the Thursday evening. This could imply that when they attended the house for the alleged domestic dispute, that Allison was not seen there at that time.

 

[grannie]

It's not uncommon for autopsy results to be kept a secret in a murder investigation.

I realise that. I just found it interesting, that when the police was waiting for the toxicology reports, the media conveyed it in a way that suggested it was the last piece of info they needed to make an arrest soon (the same week). However, the toxicology revealed nothing and no arrest followed. So the question is, what could then be in the autopsy report (in theory) to make the police confident (at the time) about who the murderer was. JMO.

 

[SydneySleuth]

I'm a long term sleuth reader, first time poster. I am confused as to how police knew it was murder before the autopsy. .:maddening:[/

MOO. The police had 11 days of investigating Allisons 'disappearance' prior to her body being found. During this time the information they received was most likely pointing towards murder, so finding her body was probably expected. I believe that kidnapping and suicide would be ruled out early on in the investigation, based on the evidence they had collected and the interviews they had conducted. I'm thinking the police knew who killed Allison before they found her. All MOO

 

[Timmy]

Good point. This is plausible and needs to be equally considered in the mix - as we don't know what was said to the Police on the Thursday night when the neighbours allegedly called them.

Yes-To me-it doesn't make sense for police to be called and then he kills her after they had left- that is,if the rumour of police being there the night before is true. IMO

 

[bearbear]

after all the scenarios hashed through i still believe the simplest....
allison went to hair salon
drove home
was looking forward to night without children
was looking forward to a busy next day (conference)
had argument, dv
maybe police called (by who, allison, neighbours?)
had a bath
was strangled and drowned in bath, scratching the killer on the face arms wrists chest etc
killer may have dressed her in walking clothes to fit in with out walking scenario
killer drove her to kholo bridge, pulled in to the side of the bridge and possibly rolled or dragged her body to up high under the bridge
killer probably worked alone, running on adrenalin
killer called police 7.30, maybe triple 0, maybe hinting wife may be suicidal, depressed etc, stormed off, hasnt returned from walk etc
police alerted by scratches, story of depression, previous nights call out etc so made it an urgency to search and also suspicious so declared the home a crime scene
killer may have confided in father or sister as burden just too hard to bear, or may have hinted she was depressed and left during the night, upset etc and advised to hire lawyer straight away as husband always suspect etc
i still think the killing was a solo act and cant see where he would need others help except for advice or comfort after the fact.

i was also wondering, if he didnt act alone and the two cars were witnessed at the scout camp area, where there were reported drag marks, maybe that was where the body was going to be left but they saw the witness's vehicle and panicked they had been seen so went with plan 2 and then drove her to under the bridge

i think this was domestic violence with a fatal ending and a big cover up, but think there may have been some pre planning, at least in the killers mind, with a little bit of research into suitable dumping grounds etc, and a tidy cleanup afterwards.
all my opinion only

 

[Thinking]

What about the above scenario BUT... By the time the police arrive (after being called by neighbors) Alison is already dead. When police arrive,GBC says 'No officer-no disturbance here. I'm on my own. My wife has just gone out for a walk.' Then has to wait some time to call family members to come and assist in cover up and hatches plan of supposed suicide. Then has to call police in morning to say that she didn't return from her walk and this is why police are immediately suspicious. IMO

Yes I have wondered about this scenario too! But I don't think the police would just accept his word if a neighbor had reported a disturbance (eg the police would go looking for her I would think). However, it might explain the early reports that the police believed she may have died as early as 8pm?

Edit to add: I see Fuskier beat me to it. You have to be quick around here!

 

[coffeechick]

Yes...i don't think that bridge has ever been flooded. Even during last years devastating flood.

Sorry, you are wrong here - the bridge was well and truly over in the Brisbane floods - the whole area plus the roads both sides of the bridge was over - the water went very very wide flooding the road - it actually went half way up the hill from the bridge.

 

[SydneySleuth]

I realise that. I just found it interesting, that when the police was waiting for the toxicology reports, the media conveyed it in a way that suggested it was the last piece of info they needed to make an arrest soon (the same week). However, the toxicology revealed nothing and no arrest followed. So the question is, what could then be in the autopsy report (in theory) to make the police confident (at the time) about who the murderer was. JMO.

I see what you're saying Grannie. Maybe is was only the media's expectation that an arrest would follow after the toxicology reports? Perhaps it was a ploy to scare the murderer into confessing? Or maybe it's simply that the Police did expect something in the toxicology results to link the murderer? I'm sure this will all come to light when there is an arrest. MOO

 

[Cccclllaareb]

I'm a long term sleuth reader, first time poster. I am confused as to how police knew it was murder before the autopsy. .:maddening:

It was treated as a homicide even before the body was found.

 

[itsthevibe]

Morning Grannie
You obviously have had access to the forensic and/or media reports regarding bathwater but forgot to put in the link. Would you like to share some more of that with us?

Rational, I believe that someone else had earlier put forward that they had heard a few things from a reliable source. It was only rumour but this person posted a couple of things, and one was that the autopsy revealed that Allison had bathwater in her lungs. I believe this is how the mention of this first started, but i can't recall who posted it. Perhaps someone else can remember. I remember at the time it seemed like a credible post, and the person made a typo, making the word come out as "batwater", which was later clarified.

 

[bearbear]

I'm a long term sleuth reader, first time poster. I am confused as to how police knew it was murder before the autopsy. .:maddening:

the day police found her body they did a press release and inspector ainsworth said they were treating it as an unlawful homicide.
there were no immediate signs of trauma to the body but obviously the attending forensics people picked something up, maybe it was where the blood had pooled etc

 

[ollijack]

after all the scenarios hashed through i still believe the simplest....
allison went to hair salon
drove home
was looking forward to night without children
was looking forward to a busy next day (conference)
had argument, dv
maybe police called (by who, allison, neighbours?)
had a bath
was strangled and drowned in bath, scratching the killer on the face arms wrists chest etc
killer may have dressed her in walking clothes to fit in with out walking scenario
killer drove her to kholo bridge, pulled in to the side of the bridge and possibly rolled or dragged her body to up high under the bridge
killer probably worked alone, running on adrenalin
killer called police 7.30, maybe triple 0, maybe hinting wife may be suicidal, depressed etc, stormed off, hasnt returned from walk etc
police alerted by scratches, story of depression, previous nights call out etc so made it an urgency to search and also suspicious so declared the home a crime scene
killer may have confided in father or sister as burden just too hard to bear, or may have hinted she was depressed and left during the night, upset etc and advised to hire lawyer straight away as husband always suspect etc
i still think the killing was a solo act and cant see where he would need others help except for advice or comfort after the fact.

i was also wondering, if he didnt act alone and the two cars were witnessed at the scout camp area, where there were reported drag marks, maybe that was where the body was going to be left but they saw the witness's vehicle and panicked they had been seen so went with plan 2 and then drove her to under the bridge

i think this was domestic violence with a fatal ending and a big cover up, but think there may have been some pre planning, at least in the killers mind, with a little bit of research into suitable dumping grounds etc, and a tidy cleanup afterwards.
all my opinion only

thankyou for that....it pulls it all back....simplest is the best....although I am still damn suspicious of NBC...SOMETHING about him....hmmm...maybe its just that he is GBC's father.uke:

 

[kiwi50]

Good point. This is plausible and needs to be equally considered in the mix - as we don't know what was said to the Police on the Thursday night when the neighbours allegedly called them. In addition, it is interesting that the Police did state in MSM that maybe Allison could have been missing from as early as 8.00pm on the Thursday evening. This could imply that when they attended the house for the alleged domestic dispute, that Allison was not seen there at that time.

Agree that's why I asked a bit earlier what the police would have done if GBC said everything was fine and that Allison had gone for a walk to calm down, whether they would hang around or come back.
Agree with other poster who said it would be crazy to kill her after the police had been.
If only we knew when and why the police first visited.
IMO

 

[imamaze]

Working on a new thread, will be closing this one in a few...

 

[CaseClosed]

I'm still of the opinion this was not premeditated. If the killer wanted to disguise this murder as a suicide, by making it seem that she jumped off the bridge, it is pretty lame attempt IMO. That bridge is not high enough to guarantee death. There is a pretty good chance someone would survive (injured, but survive) that hight. Also, her car was not found near the bridge. By mentioning "depression" in the first few interviews, I believe the family was hinting at suicide, but the killer(s) post-death cover-up plan does not support this. Big holes! I'm inclined to think that the cover-up plan was more to do with: She went for a walk, was abducted by a random man, killed somewhere and left under the bridge.

If this case ends up being a premeditated murder, I will be very surprised!

Also, I am convinced that if someone has killed somebody, they will NOT involve a whole lot of people to cover it up. I can understand the post-participation of perhaps one more individual, but not more. It is just too risky, whether it would be family members or mistresses, to involve more people.

 

[Cccclllaareb]

Yes I have wondered about this scenario too! But I don't think the police would just accept his word if a neighbor had reported a disturbance (eg the police would go looking for her I would think). However, it might explain the early reports that the police believed she may have died as early as 8pm?

Edit to add: I see Fuskier beat me to it. You have to be quick around here!

A long time ago the police were called to a domestic dispute at my place (in a previous relationship) and I was in the bathroom when they arrived. My partner told the police that we had an argument but we r ok, and that I was in the bathroom and I yelled out that I was alright. They would not leave until i came out and they could see I was fine.

 

[imamaze]

Ok...closing thread in one minute... Please continue here...

Australia Australia - Allison Baden-Clay, 43, Brisbane QLD, 19 April 2012 #20 - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community

 

[J-Diggety]

What about the above scenario BUT... By the time the police arrive (after being called by neighbors) Alison is already dead. When police arrive,GBC says 'No officer-no disturbance here. I'm on my own. My wife has just gone out for a walk.' Then has to wait some time to call family members to come and assist in cover up and hatches plan of supposed suicide. Then has to call police in morning to say that she didn't return from her walk and this is why police are immediately suspicious. IMO

In that instance, the Police would not leave the house without checking on all parties. Duty of care would override someone stating that all is well. If they made the effort to call in, they won't leave on the say so of a male in the house.