AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - # 7

[cluciano63]

If there had been any reason for the family to think she had been taken for money, I don't think they would have waited to address the media...JMO

 

[Shelby2]

So they are NOT commenting on who put her to bed.

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1204/23/ng.01.html

 

[FrayedKnot]

Kidnapping for $ or drug debt makes no sense.

Abduction from her bed by unknown perp makes sense but is a logistical nightmare, IMHO.

So that leaves what? And who? Simplest answer is an accidental death at the hands of a family member or someone close to the family but because of the circumstances (ie felony homicide) there was a need to stage an abduction scene.

Totally JMHO, but any other scenario is, for me like forcing a puzzle piece to fit.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[dsntslp]

They may do this to keep heat off them in Mexico. Look at all the searches in Tuscon. If this is a pedo ring (hate to think that) They would not want police searches all over Mexico the way they are in Tuscon.

Ohh i sure hope LE find her. This is not looking good at all. JMO

Good answer, TY TY

But...why not take a child from elsewhere in Mexico, as far away from where the kidnapper lives as possible, and not risk a border crossing?

IDK, I see this Mexico scenario as possible but not very probable.
I really think that whoever took her had the time to watch her and become pervertedly obsessed with her...just her - not just any random child.

So, unless this kidnapper from Mexico was in the states on a regular basis (yes, I know, it happens) I lean more toward thinking it is a local.

Just my opinion.

ETA: I wonder if any of the legit profilers like retired FBI etc... have weighed in or commented as to what they think. Off to see if I can find anything at all...
ETA: All I can find are 'talking heads', sry.

 

[Frigga]

..respectfully, A perp who knew the dogs bark all the time anyways so it wouldnt scare the family, but weren't attack dogs?

My husky howl-talks at everything. I do not check on my kids when she howls at night, because she howls at wind, cats outside, neighbors coming in late, AIRPLANES... all this she hears from the living room.

Marazul, I think we have your dogs brother!

The dogs at this point just don't say much to me in terms of the perp or perps because of how our dog barks, and every other dog on our small street bark at night, (and there are many)!

Sometimes there is a chorus of dogs barking at night, and inevitably when I check on the situation, they are barking at a cat, possum, or something as mundane as the street light (I kid you not)!

 

[Cazzie]

If there had been any reason for the family to think she had been taken for money, I don't think they would have waited to address the media...JMO

I dunno...in your scenario, they may have been scrambling to come up with the money and/or working with LE about it (if they weren't holding anything back).

IF, hypothetically, someone in or known to the family has something to hide (or not), IF Isa was taken for money or as a "message"...then I could see that they would be in quite a quandary and tiptoe-ing on eggshells...maybe even working closely with LE/FBI on what to eventually say to the media...

In my jaded mind, Isa could have been taken as a "message" to someone not even closely affiliated or affiliated at all with her family...or maybe my imagination and jadedness is out of control.

:sigh:

 

[FrayedKnot]

So they are NOT commenting on who put her to bed.

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1204/23/ng.01.html

They are NOT commenting on just about everything, it seems.

Was Isa at school Friday?
What time did mom leave for work?
Who put Isa to bed?

The woman on NG who said it was her understanding that the mom left for work at 7:30 IS an Information Officer for TPD, but since TPD had already stated that they would NOT be releasing what time mom went to work, it seems that we cannot count her statement as fact.

So we basically got nuttin'......


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Thinkzerz]

Good answer, TY TY

But...why not take a child from elsewhere in Mexico, as far away from where the kidnapper lives as possible, and not risk a border crossing?

IDK, I see this Mexico scenario as possible but not very probable.
I really think that whoever took her had the time to watch her and become pervertedly obsessed with her...just her - not just any random child.

So, unless this kidnapper from Mexico was in the states on a regular basis (yes, I know, it happens) I lean more toward thinking it is a local.

Just my opinion.

I don't understand why LE was only searching a 3 mile radius and now looking at Mexican border. You think they would have had Mexico on the alert right away with saying now that it is close and probable.

 

[dsntslp]

A lot of times the PIO is intentionally kept in the dark and knows very little about the case so that they (being human) can not accidentally divulge facts that LE does not want released.

ETA: PIO = Public Information Officer

 

[liz b.]

This has not unfolded like a typical child abduction case. I expect the calculated dance between the family and LE to come to an end this week when the family lawyers up. And then we'll really see what LE's got.

MOO.

There does seem to be some cat and mouse going on...MOO.

I believe that the forensics will tell the story...MOO

 

[dsntslp]

I don't understand why LE was only searching a 3 mile radius and now looking at Mexican border. You think they would have had Mexico on the alert right away with saying now that it is close and probable.

I think they are just doing what they are supposed to be doing. Looking at it from all angles, investigating multiple possibilities, so they can say they did all they could.

Or...it's a ploy to make the perp think that is the direction they are heading so that the perp will feel comfortable and either slip up or hopefully keep her alive. tactics.

I just really don't think that they believe this is what happened (Mexico).

But that's just me, and heaven knows I am wrong a lot...lol.

JMO

 

[Shelby2]

You know what always creeps me out? The fact that the perp could be reading here...I always wonder about that.

 

[curiousc]

I think they are just doing what they are supposed to be doing. Looking at it from all angles, investigating multiple possibilities, so they can say they did all they could.

Or...it's a ploy to make the perp think that is the direction they are heading so that the perp will feel comfortable and either slip up or hopefully keep her alive. tactics.

I just really don't think that they believe this is what happened (Mexico).

But that's just me, and heaven knows I am wrong a lot...lol.

JMO

I think LE does have to look at every angle because that one could potentially be the right angle. However, do they believe Isa was taken to Mexico is another story. They may already have some idea of what may have happened, afterall, they have interviewed the parents, they know the results of poly's if they were taken, they have and are investigating security camera videos, etc. And forensics may make their idea more concrete or it may guide them to another direction.

Sadly, though, I see many LE not pressing charges due to the fact that they want to find the victim's body. So many kids missing yet perps are roaming free because LE doesn't want to prosecute without a body. Without a body, they have one chance to prosecute and if they don't get it right, they don't get another chance.

However, at this point in time, we have no idea if Isa is deceased or alive. Statistically, she may not be but she very well still could be and held captive somewhere. I look at Shawn Hornbeck and know that there can be miracles. Just hope that she is found sooner than later!!

 

[oceanblueeyes]

I don't know if i would feel safe to go back into my home as the Celis family is. But with the family huddling together with Parents or other family members makes me think they should separate them all for interviews. Just in case the family is covering up for a family member. JMO

Has Isa's parents returned home now? The last I read ........they had not, but I have been extremely busy Friday and Saturday so I may have missed that.

I did see a video this morning of a neighbor and his son going onto Isa's property and no one was home. It made me so dam* angry when I saw that. I cant stand looky loos who invades someone's private home property.:banghead:

I am so glad this family seems to have a wealth of support.

I have no doubt since LE has said from the beginning that the parents have cooperated fully. that they have talked with police separately or together.......any way that LE wanted to do it.

IMO

 

[curiousc]

You know what always creeps me out? The fact that the perp could be reading here...I always wonder about that.

It happens. I also posted a few years ago on another forum about a woman who went missing and the perp was posting as well. That was creepy.

 

[Shelby2]

Just a thought, those five walking in the area. If I was one of them, LE would not have had to ask me to come forward-I think I would have contacted them myself to say I was in the area at the time..

 

[Anna1964]

I have been following this thread and just have to say that no matter how bold or risky it may be to enter a home in the middle of the night it does happen. I have three very large inside dogs that each weigh between 100 and 150lbs, and they guard so much we can hardly have company in our home. Three weeks ago on a Friday night an intruder entered my son's bedroom window and stole some of his things. My son is in his twenties and was not home. My husband and I were in our bedroom with the door closed, and I was actually awake reading. An hour after we went to bed the dogs started barking, and since they bark so much I ignored it and even yelled at them to be quiet. After about 15 minutes of ear shattering, booming barks they started barking in a way that had me jumping from the bed to look in the hall. Never heard anything like it....... they were lined up in the hall in front of my son's closed door barking, growling, and even bouncing. It took a bit to wake my husband. Yes, he never woke. He took one dog outside, looked around, and thought it was a cat or something. Next morning my son's screen was on the ground and the window open. It never occurred to us someone could have entered our home. We live in a very small town and everyone knows the breed of dogs we own guard very aggressively. The lights were on and I was obviously up when the person entered. It is still hard to believe someone actually did this because my dogs would have ate them, and they had to have known this. And just to steal something?? It is hard to believe people can do such risky things, but they do. The idea of someone taking her in the in the dead of the night is possible. It is so scary to think that can and does actually happen.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

Marazul, I think we have your dogs brother!

The dogs at this point just don't say much to me in terms of the perp or perps because of how our dog barks, and every other dog on our small street bark at night, (and there are many)!

Sometimes there is a chorus of dogs barking at night, and inevitably when I check on the situation, they are barking at a cat, possum, or something as mundane as the street light (I kid you not)!

Thats the exact why I feel, Frigga.

If I had not already kept up with many cases where the victim's home had dogs in it then I may pay more attention to the subject about the dogs barking or not barking in this case.

LOL! You are right..........usually when barking dogs hear another barking dog they chime right in even if they have no clue why the other dogs are barking.:floorlaugh:

Then sometimes our dogs will fool me and not bark at all when they hear other dogs barking.

Dogs are as unpreditable as humans are, imo.

imo

 

[alwayslooking]

It is true, these types of predators do not have the same boundaries you or I would. They live in a different world. What I wonder is why it seems to happen so much more in the US than in Europe. Is it less reported? This should give everyone a pause for thought. I thought about this a lot yesterday. I live in Hamburg, Germany, transplant from San Diego. I had to have my washing machine fixed yesterday and this guy was in my house with my 4 year old and I for a good part of the morning. He was friendly, he knows somewhat my story of how I ended up here and I wasn't at all thinking this guy would come back or accost me or anything. My daughter goes to the bathroom alone in a restaurant (within reason) and I do not worry about it and I remember the paranoid world I lived in there. There are reasons I don't care for living here but when I think about my daughter, I have to wonder if I would take her back there when she's small.

Your comments are welcome. I can take it!:truce:

25 years ago we were in Japan, and I hated being away from my home, my customs, the food.....but I felt very safe with my children! You never heard of crimes like these.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

Kidnapping for $ or drug debt makes no sense.

Abduction from her bed by unknown perp makes sense but is a logistical nightmare, IMHO.

So that leaves what? And who? Simplest answer is an accidental death at the hands of a family member or someone close to the family but because of the circumstances (ie felony homicide) there was a need to stage an abduction scene.

Totally JMHO, but any other scenario is, for me like forcing a puzzle piece to fit.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

BBM

Respectfully, that is the least reasonable explanation, imo. That is about as non-sensical as Casey Anthony trying to say Caylee died accidentally yet..oops.. she took her and threw her little body into a bug infested swamp to decompose and never looked back or even reported her missing.

In fact when that infamous stupid case was going on I did a lot of research trying to find just ONE case where a child had accidentally died and the parents took the body out of the home and covered the accidental death up. I couldnt find one case.......not one case where a parent or parents had ever done that.

People dont make accidental deaths look like a homicide or into a criminal act. Like Dr. G said.......they call 911 immediately to get assistance for the child that has been accidentally hurt.

JMO though