AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - # 8

[deelytful1]

LE did not make a mistake in releasing that video, there is no way, and no one can convince me other wise. Something is going on that we dont know about and they dont want us knowing. However there was a point in releasing that video, possably it is the right video and person 6 saw it and contacted LE threatening to harm Isa if they didn't retract the video. Maybe LE and the family has been in contact with kidnapper and kidnapper told parents to stay off tv, but LE wants the parents to make a plea or talk to the kidnapper through media.
One thing that has me convinced that they know more than they are saying is the fact that they stopped searching very early on, I have followed enough of these cases to know that they search for a LONG time after someone goes missing and they aren't, so why, that and the video, you cant convince me that they dont know more and are executing some sort of plan. I am not convinced this is a random kidnapping, I do beleive this person knows the house the family and the dogs.... However after reading the article about the 3 kids assulted not to far from ISA's home has me second guessing that theory as well. Bottom line I think LE knows more, lets not give up on LE. We all know they are smarter than to release a video ask for help and it be the wrong tape. They analzed that video very well before it became public.

Well, I can't say I have much confidence in any LE but IMHO IF there is a kidnapper, they may have released the video to make the kidnapper "think" there was a witness?
I think it is merely what it is... the police are clueless and they need someone to come forward.
As to the lack of searches and the parents NOT being on TV? it could be what has been said about them knowing there is a kidnapper.and the kidnapper NOT wanting the parents all over TV but that doesn't really make sense to me.
My question is: If Isa was truly kidnapped, would LE and media be handling the case as they are?
Wouldn't they have all media pull back and not have the PD be giving interviews on TV?
Well I'm one of the jaded ones and think the family had something to do with it... even if it is merely a debt that they owed and Isa was taken as collateral. JMO JMO
It is also a precedent in the "mexican mafia" (if that's what you want to call it) that people are kidnapped for a ransom or drug debt.. usually never to be seen again.
There are very few cases that i don't see the parents up there pleading and crying and searching for their missing children and those are usually the ones in which we are still discussing in the missing forums :waitasec:

 

[Theforeigner]

People on the video know which night they were there...it would be foolish for LE to lie about it now and say it was the wrong night, if not true. That kind of stuff gets out. I really think LE collected videos in a quick sweep, assuming they were all from Fri/Sat as they requested and only happened to find out they were not when the people all told them, and perhaps were able to prove, that they were there the next night.

I could be wrong, of course, but I believe it was a screw-up...as someone pointed out earlier, the time was wrong on the video that LE circulated in the case concerning Lauren Spierer. Ir can happen.

JMO

Lying is a common, and legal, "tool" in the police's "strategy toolbox", police do lie if it will help their investigation. They are entitled to lie about whatever they want to and to whomever they want, as long as it is a strategy helping their investigation.

And whenever the police speak in the media, everything they say, or don´t say, has been planed out in detail, in order to feed the suspect with that specific information, true or false, that they want the suspect to belive.

Police don´t speak in the media just to inform and please the population, their first priority is to manipulate the suspect, second to urge people to provide tips (thise two are probably equal priority), THEN as number three, to please the public.

At least that is the way it works here in Denmark, I´m pretty sure it's the same in US.

 

[~n/t~]

I find it highly coincidental that 10 days after Isabel was kidnapped, a perp assaults 3 young girls (one the same age as Isabel) only 10 miles away. On the same day the news of these assaults, the surveillance tape that was released in Isabel Celis case was retracted claiming it was the wrong day and supposedly the day (night) after Isa was kidnapped where we clearly do not see any police presence in the video which was taken only a few blocks from Isa's home. Furthermore, the fact that police asked the 5 in the video to come forward and identify themselves without any mention of the 6th. person in the video to come forward makes me suspect. The 6th. person was brought up because people noticed. When one of our own members called TPD, they claimed to not have noticed the 6th. person (IIRC and paraphrasing).

I find all of the above suspicious. Not saying LE doesn't make mistakes in releasing a wrong video but I doubt this was a mistake. I think it could have been a strategic move that may have backfired. JMO

 

[Zuckerschnecke]

I find it highly coincidental that 10 days after Isabel was kidnapped, a perp assaults 3 young girls (one the same age as Isabel) only 10 miles away. On the same day the news of these assaults, the surveillance tape that was released in Isabel Celis case was retracted claiming it was the wrong day and supposedly the day (night) after Isa was kidnapped where we clearly do not see any police presence in the video which was taken only a few blocks from Isa's home. Furthermore, the fact that police asked the 5 in the video to come forward and identify themselves without any mention of the 6th. person in the video to come forward makes me suspect. The 6th. person was brought up because people noticed. When one of our own members called TPD, they claimed to not have noticed the 6th. person (IIRC and paraphrasing).

I find all of the above suspicious. Not saying LE doesn't make mistakes in releasing a wrong video but I doubt this was a mistake. I think it could have been a strategic move that may have backfired. JMO

I'm thinking along the same lines you are. Just not sure if there's a connection with the other assault or not. Reason I think this is because if it's the same guy then Isa is likely no longer with us and I don't want to think that.

I see this other perp as the peeping Tom SO type and for some reason I feel like Isa was targeted in some way. Plus, the other guy broke into the house and molested the girls there. Isa was taken away.

But as for the video and release date, yes I think it was a cat and mouse. How about one of the 5 come forward and confirm the date was wrong. Until then, don't believe it.

 

[~n/t~]

I'm thinking along the same lines you are. Just not sure if there's a connection with the other assault or not. Reason I think this is because if it's the same guy then Isa is likely no longer with us and I don't want to think that.

I see this other perp as the peeping Tom SO type and for some reason I feel like Isa was targeted in some way. Plus, the other guy broke into the house and molested the girls there. Isa was taken away.

But as for the video and release date, yes I think it was a cat and mouse. How about one of the 5 come forward and confirm the date was wrong. Until then, don't believe it.

I don't want to think Isabel is no longer with us either but sadly statistics are against her. The first 24-48 hours are crucial in a missing child case. It's now 11 days and still no closer than we were day 1. Praying and hoping for a miracle at this point.

From the beginning, I said Isa's perp could be a young guy. Someone possibly connected to her brother. A friend, an acquaintance. I questioned whether he had older friends. The guy involved in the sexual assault case is being described as a 20 year old. I don't know all the details in that case. How did he get in? Did he not take a child because he didn't get the opportunity to?

I wouldn't dismiss a connection until all facts are known. I believe it's highly possible this creep struck before and will strike again. He's probably not even in the database as a registered sex offender.

Hopefully it's not too late for Isa. As horrible and horrific their assault was, these 3 little girls were very lucky in that they weren't kidnapped or killed, IMO

 

[oceanblueeyes]

I find it highly coincidental that 10 days after Isabel was kidnapped, a perp assaults 3 young girls (one the same age as Isabel) only 10 miles away. On the same day the news of these assaults, the surveillance tape that was released in Isabel Celis case was retracted claiming it was the wrong day and supposedly the day (night) after Isa was kidnapped where we clearly do not see any police presence in the video which was taken only a few blocks from Isa's home. Furthermore, the fact that police asked the 5 in the video to come forward and identify themselves without any mention of the 6th. person in the video to come forward makes me suspect. The 6th. person was brought up because people noticed. When one of our own members called TPD, they claimed to not have noticed the 6th. person (IIRC and paraphrasing).

I find all of the above suspicious. Not saying LE doesn't make mistakes in releasing a wrong video but I doubt this was a mistake. I think it could have been a strategic move that may have backfired. JMO

I have watched LE PCs for years..never have I seen ones like the ones that have gone on in the past week and a half. Imo, they are clueless and imo they are a waste of time. I think if they were asked if they thought the sun was going to rise today they would say 'we cant comment on that.' And of course due to that it makes everyone's speculations run rampant when they dont answer any question asked of them...no matter what the questions happens to be.

As far as this guy invading a home in order to molest children it doesnt come as a surprise to me. I have been reading about perps for years who are entering homes with families were present and molesting children there or taking them out of the home at night and molesting them elsewhere. These horrible events didnt just start happening and that is why I dont quite understand why some cant believe Isa is also another victim of another predator.

Imo, Isa is the right age group to be a targeted victim by a pedophile. I no more believe Isa was taken in retaliation for a drug debt or for any other reason connected to her family. There hasnt been one thing that supports that either, imo. None.

Well Im headed to work today and hope when I return there will be some news on Isa instead of another useless PC which tells nothing.

IMO

 

[dsntslp]

WARNING! May be disturbing to some.

D e c a y R a t e s of H u m a n R e m a i n s in an Ar id
E n v i r o nme n t

A l i s o n Ga l l o w a y , 1 Ph. D . ; W a l t e r H. B i r k b y , 2 Ph. D . ;
A l l e n M. Jone s , 3 M . D . ; T h o m a s E. He n r y , 3 M . D . ; a n d
B r u c e O. P a r k s , 3 M . D .

http://library-resources.cqu.edu.au/JFS/PDF/vol_34/iss_3/JFS343890607.pdf

============
I am trying to find an answer for Dr. Know. Bloat and insect activity create heat...so the question of whether the infrared will detect a human body will depend on decay rates in an arid environment and this paper is specific to AZ.

IMO, the bloat stage would have ended but I am not sure about the insect activity question.
I haven't read the whole paper but will do so tomorrow, Dr. Know.

In the meantime it would be great, and so much easier, if one of our AZ SAR (or nearby) would weigh in.

G'night all.

Good morning happy people!

Dr. Know,
Well, I was hoping that this paper would provide specific case studies such as the Body Farm does but unfortunately it does not.
As I thought, bloat is usually finished by day 7 but this paper says it may be prolonged due to arid conditions. Insect activity may be retarded by many variables as well.
We are at day 11 here, right?
Could there possibly be enough heat created by insects and decay that the body might show on infrared? I would venture to say that it is possible but not probable.
As I thought, there are no definitive answers because there are so many variables. I was hoping more for studies that were more specific than "seasonal".
I do believe that even a scientist reading this paper will tell us the same...variables, variables, variables. I would love for one to weigh in though and educate me!

Long story short...no, I don't think they will locate remains eleven days in using infrared but if they are still trying they are running out of time very,very quickly.

Just my non-professional opinion.
Sorry I can't be of more help Dr. Know.

Apologies to all for the nature of the discussion so early in the morning.

 

[Zuckerschnecke]

I don't want to think Isabel is no longer with us either but sadly statistics are against her. The first 24-48 hours are crucial in a missing child case. It's now 11 days and still no closer than we were day 1. Praying and hoping for a miracle at this point.

From the beginning, I said Isa's perp could be a young guy. Someone possibly connected to her brother. A friend, an acquaintance. I questioned whether he had older friends. The guy involved in the sexual assault case is being described as a 20 year old. I don't know all the details in that case. How did he get in? Did he not take a child because he didn't get the opportunity to?

I wouldn't dismiss a connection until all facts are known. I believe it's highly possible this creep struck before and will strike again. He's probably not even in the database as a registered sex offender.

Hopefully it's not too late for Isa. As horrible and horrific their assault was, these 3 little girls were very lucky in that they weren't kidnapped or killed, IMO

Oh I agree anything is possible. I am hoping there is DNA or scent from both places that can be matched. Police are not saying much at all, which makes me think they are either sly or stumped.

 

[Lava]

Any reason why "STREAMING LIVE: News Conference on Isabel Celis" Is on the top of www.tucsonnewsnow.com? I've only seen that pop up 10 mins before the pressers.

 

[passionflower]

I am thinking if this is an inexperienced younger kidnapper, wouldn't he be 'sloppy'?
Leave clues or evidence behind?

 

[Lava]

Composite sketch of suspect in break in/assault.

http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/story/17969327/suspects-composite-flotus-and-most-dangerous-park

 

[~n/t~]

Day 11


Sounds like they may have a new video?

They say they're working to get new video after they discovered video of a group of people released on Friday was actually from the day after Isabel disappeared. Police say if the new video could lead to more tips, they'll release it to the media.

http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/story/17996641/finding-isabel-day-11

 

[nursebeeme]

new thread coming shortly...

 

[nursebeeme]

new thread... this one closing shortly
AZ Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #9 - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community