Bulgaria - Lars Mittank, 28, German tourist, Varna airport, 8 July 2014

I just started reading up on this LM case, though I have heard about it over the past year. Very sad/unfortunate case. Honestly, I have not read up that much on this. Here are some initial thoughts:

I'm not a doctor - but it appears that LM had some kind of reaction to the medication he was given - which may have caused disorientation/paranoia, etc. However, it's also possible his ruptured eardrum may have also caused him some kind of disorientation/balance issues, etc.

That being said - were people actually after him that meant him harm?! Possibly.

Unfortunately - since he hasn't been seen since he vanished, he's probably deceased. I don't see him cutting off all communication with his family. If he is still alive, it's possible he's living on the street(s) somewhere - but, IMHO this is unlikely.
 
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Aug 13 '23
Riccardo Valentino
https://medium.com/@ricksta_v?source=post_page-----cfd773579002--------------------------------
In the vicinity of Varna Airport in Bulgaria, on July 8, 2014, Lars Mittank, a 28-year-old individual, vanished without a trace. Intriguingly, fragments of his final known moments were captured on video.
''A journey that initially promised carefree moments and Eastern European exploration took a devastating turn, becoming a family’s worst nightmare and leaving an enduring mystery.

Lars Mittank, a 28-year-old resident of Berlin, Germany, embarked on a vacation to Bulgaria with his friends in 2014, but tragically, he never returned to his home.

As time passed, Lars Mittank became widely known as “the most famous missing person on YouTube due to the viral spread of an airport security video capturing his last confirmed sighting.

Despite millions of people viewing the footage online, his whereabouts remain a mystery, as he is yet to be found.

Just prior to boarding his return flight home, Mittank hurriedly fled the bustling Varna Airport. However, he carried a head injury resulting from a recent altercation a few days prior.''
 
I often think about Lars - even though I prefer not to, cause people's way of thinking is even more mysterious to me than his fate.

I probably said it before and I will again. This is just crazy.

Guy had no history of mental illness.
Wasn't too fond of alcohol.
Wasn't taking drugs.
What he liked was sports and healthy lifestyle.
By every account he was always using healthy diet.
Yet somehow him acting... the same exact way on vacation, not getting into "let's eat and drink as much as we can now when we have it all inclusive" made it as LEGIT reason to see his behaviour as strange right from the get go.
Just cause some guys who normally not so fond of healthy lifestyle and very into eating and drinking a lot vaguely pointed it out.

And just because, after night of partying and drinking while watching football match at the pub (and probably going through some serious hangover) they doubted in his story of being attacked by some random locals.
These guys had every reason to find that scenario weird, they knew nothing about Eastern Europe.
They had even more reasons to NOT find their judgement from that morning as the sharpest and clearest possible.
They weren't with Lars, they never claimed to be with Lars for many hours of that night.
Yet their best guess from the time somehow made it as the most reasonable judgement of the situation.
Despite of the fact that they made nothing but VERY, VERY poor decisions later.
How does that makes sense? How? How on Earth does it make any sense?
Somehow many people were willing to blame them for leaving Lars behind, even going as far as blaming them for the fact he went missing, but next to no one I ever heard or read was willing to consider that whoa, maybe their judgement and assumptions were poor all the time, not only at the point when they decided to use their tickets and fly home.

What his companions can confirm thou is that he was treated rather terribly by the local docs and that "unproffesional" is far from the right description of their attitude towards patient.
What his mother and PI can confirm is that evidence in this case was tampered with and that there was a pressure to stop trying to get deeper into it.
What plethora of tourists reviews from before and after Lars ended up in motel is that his impression of the place was pretty spot on
(not saying that his credit card data was copied or used, BUT that the standards of handling credit cards in Bulgaria were VERY different from Germany so it was fully understandable and easily explainable WHY and WHAT scared him and made him so suspicious that he called his mom and asked to block it).

Even the only somewhat named whitness, the doc at the airport was NOT claiming that he saw anything or knew anything what happened to the Lars at the airport.
He saw and whitnessed nothing but the brief, confusing, and by his account pretty inconsistent between several recollections - maybe he wasn't entirely forthcoming, maybe he was lying, maybe he didn't care, possibly he just didn't remember anything that well.
Surveillance is not providing much either.

So just because:
- bunch of drunk guys thought that Lars wasn't attacked cause they didn't saw it while they WEREN'T WITH HIM,
- guy who can't keep his story straight said that nothing weird happened neither at his office or anywhere else, where he WAS NOT PRESENT,
- and cause there is like one in the zillion chance that these antibiotics could cause some neurological issues, which is (and don't take me as an expert on that) but somewhat similar to a risk caused by spoiled banana or a random, poorly handled sandwich
it's somehow like oh yeah, so sad, he must have suffer from some undiagnosed mental illness.
Yeah, hell yeah, he might. That is a possibility and some may call it as likely. But IMO it's far from being obvious explanation for his disappearance.

I apologise for the rambling, but every time I see new youtube video "covering" his case I'm having a rage stroke.
 
I often think about Lars - even though I prefer not to, cause people's way of thinking is even more mysterious to me than his fate.

I probably said it before and I will again. This is just crazy.

Guy had no history of mental illness.
Wasn't too fond of alcohol.
Wasn't taking drugs.
What he liked was sports and healthy lifestyle.
By every account he was always using healthy diet.
Yet somehow him acting... the same exact way on vacation, not getting into "let's eat and drink as much as we can now when we have it all inclusive" made it as LEGIT reason to see his behaviour as strange right from the get go.
Just cause some guys who normally not so fond of healthy lifestyle and very into eating and drinking a lot vaguely pointed it out.

And just because, after night of partying and drinking while watching football match at the pub (and probably going through some serious hangover) they doubted in his story of being attacked by some random locals.
These guys had every reason to find that scenario weird, they knew nothing about Eastern Europe.
They had even more reasons to NOT find their judgement from that morning as the sharpest and clearest possible.
They weren't with Lars, they never claimed to be with Lars for many hours of that night.
Yet their best guess from the time somehow made it as the most reasonable judgement of the situation.
Despite of the fact that they made nothing but VERY, VERY poor decisions later.
How does that makes sense? How? How on Earth does it make any sense?
Somehow many people were willing to blame them for leaving Lars behind, even going as far as blaming them for the fact he went missing, but next to no one I ever heard or read was willing to consider that whoa, maybe their judgement and assumptions were poor all the time, not only at the point when they decided to use their tickets and fly home.

What his companions can confirm thou is that he was treated rather terribly by the local docs and that "unproffesional" is far from the right description of their attitude towards patient.
What his mother and PI can confirm is that evidence in this case was tampered with and that there was a pressure to stop trying to get deeper into it.
What plethora of tourists reviews from before and after Lars ended up in motel is that his impression of the place was pretty spot on
(not saying that his credit card data was copied or used, BUT that the standards of handling credit cards in Bulgaria were VERY different from Germany so it was fully understandable and easily explainable WHY and WHAT scared him and made him so suspicious that he called his mom and asked to block it).

Even the only somewhat named whitness, the doc at the airport was NOT claiming that he saw anything or knew anything what happened to the Lars at the airport.
He saw and whitnessed nothing but the brief, confusing, and by his account pretty inconsistent between several recollections - maybe he wasn't entirely forthcoming, maybe he was lying, maybe he didn't care, possibly he just didn't remember anything that well.
Surveillance is not providing much either.

So just because:
- bunch of drunk guys thought that Lars wasn't attacked cause they didn't saw it while they WEREN'T WITH HIM,
- guy who can't keep his story straight said that nothing weird happened neither at his office or anywhere else, where he WAS NOT PRESENT,
- and cause there is like one in the zillion chance that these antibiotics could cause some neurological issues, which is (and don't take me as an expert on that) but somewhat similar to a risk caused by spoiled banana or a random, poorly handled sandwich
it's somehow like oh yeah, so sad, he must have suffer from some undiagnosed mental illness.
Yeah, hell yeah, he might. That is a possibility and some may call it as likely. But IMO it's far from being obvious explanation for his disappearance.

I apologise for the rambling, but every time I see new youtube video "covering" his case I'm having a rage stroke.
I appreciate your perspective, but I don’t see things the way you do.

• Mental illness has to start sometime somehow. One doesn’t have to have a history of being mentally ill to have mental illness.
• Who is to say if he wasn’t fond of alcohol? It doesn’t matter anyways as no one reports he was drinking excessively or acting drunk.
• There is no way anyone can prove if he was using drugs or not. I don’t think he probably was, but who knows? No one.
• Not eating much at all but doing lots of exercise? That doesn’t make sense. The more calories you burn the more you need to eat. He wasn’t rapidly dropping weight that we know of.
• Maybe he was attacked but no one saw it. And then those men were out for revenge? Why? Makes no sense whatsoever. If he was in fact attacked, they followed Lars and did what with him to cause him to disappear for years? Makes no sense.
• How were doctors treating Lars horribly? He was given medicine. What more can you do? I’ve had a ruptured eardrum and it’s temporarily painful but no big deal. A grown man acting like it’s the end of the world to have a ruptured eardrum, that’s strange behavior. Sure, don’t fly with it, but he had other transportation options he didn’t take.
• So he was worried someone might fraudulently use his credit card? To the point that he cancels it so he can’t use it? That’s strange behavior.
• The dr. at the airport had inconsistent statements? Why would he be trying to hide anything? He had no connection to Lars and no reason to lie.
• I think the antibiotics are a total red herring. He was acting strange way before the antibiotics.
• The people he vacationed with, the people who knew him, they though Lars was acting strangely.

Somehow everyone Lars ran into and every place he went, people were out to get him. That’s not logical at all.
 
I often think about Lars - even though I prefer not to, cause people's way of thinking is even more mysterious to me than his fate.

I probably said it before and I will again. This is just crazy.

Guy had no history of mental illness.
Wasn't too fond of alcohol.
Wasn't taking drugs.
What he liked was sports and healthy lifestyle.
By every account he was always using healthy diet.
Yet somehow him acting... the same exact way on vacation, not getting into "let's eat and drink as much as we can now when we have it all inclusive" made it as LEGIT reason to see his behaviour as strange right from the get go.
Just cause some guys who normally not so fond of healthy lifestyle and very into eating and drinking a lot vaguely pointed it out.

And just because, after night of partying and drinking while watching football match at the pub (and probably going through some serious hangover) they doubted in his story of being attacked by some random locals.
These guys had every reason to find that scenario weird, they knew nothing about Eastern Europe.
They had even more reasons to NOT find their judgement from that morning as the sharpest and clearest possible.
They weren't with Lars, they never claimed to be with Lars for many hours of that night.
Yet their best guess from the time somehow made it as the most reasonable judgement of the situation.
Despite of the fact that they made nothing but VERY, VERY poor decisions later.
How does that makes sense? How? How on Earth does it make any sense?
Somehow many people were willing to blame them for leaving Lars behind, even going as far as blaming them for the fact he went missing, but next to no one I ever heard or read was willing to consider that whoa, maybe their judgement and assumptions were poor all the time, not only at the point when they decided to use their tickets and fly home.

What his companions can confirm thou is that he was treated rather terribly by the local docs and that "unproffesional" is far from the right description of their attitude towards patient.
What his mother and PI can confirm is that evidence in this case was tampered with and that there was a pressure to stop trying to get deeper into it.
What plethora of tourists reviews from before and after Lars ended up in motel is that his impression of the place was pretty spot on
(not saying that his credit card data was copied or used, BUT that the standards of handling credit cards in Bulgaria were VERY different from Germany so it was fully understandable and easily explainable WHY and WHAT scared him and made him so suspicious that he called his mom and asked to block it).

Even the only somewhat named whitness, the doc at the airport was NOT claiming that he saw anything or knew anything what happened to the Lars at the airport.
He saw and whitnessed nothing but the brief, confusing, and by his account pretty inconsistent between several recollections - maybe he wasn't entirely forthcoming, maybe he was lying, maybe he didn't care, possibly he just didn't remember anything that well.
Surveillance is not providing much either.

So just because:
- bunch of drunk guys thought that Lars wasn't attacked cause they didn't saw it while they WEREN'T WITH HIM,
- guy who can't keep his story straight said that nothing weird happened neither at his office or anywhere else, where he WAS NOT PRESENT,
- and cause there is like one in the zillion chance that these antibiotics could cause some neurological issues, which is (and don't take me as an expert on that) but somewhat similar to a risk caused by spoiled banana or a random, poorly handled sandwich
it's somehow like oh yeah, so sad, he must have suffer from some undiagnosed mental illness.
Yeah, hell yeah, he might. That is a possibility and some may call it as likely. But IMO it's far from being obvious explanation for his disappearance.

I apologise for the rambling, but every time I see new youtube video "covering" his case I'm having a rage stroke.
Thank you for your input. I think Lars was possibly drugged. I believe that the account that he was attacked is very possible.
It’s also possible he got hold of some marijuana that was laced with some type of hallucinogen.
His friends were obviously not very privy to what was going on, as they were likely highly intoxicated at the time. JMO
 
• Mental illness has to start sometime somehow. One doesn’t have to have a history of being mentally ill to have mental illness.
Yes, it has to, and it's even much more likely that it will in stressful situation. And so I said before that it is a possibility.
• Who is to say if he wasn’t fond of alcohol? It doesn’t matter anyways as no one reports he was drinking excessively or acting drunk.
His mother and friends, in later coverages.
It wasn't said that he wasn't drinking at all, just something to the accord that getting drunk on a party wasn't his idea of having fun.
• There is no way anyone can prove if he was using drugs or not. I don’t think he probably was, but who knows? No one.
Exactly. No reason to take it into consideration as a strong possibility.
• Not eating much at all but doing lots of exercise? That doesn’t make sense. The more calories you burn the more you need to eat. He wasn’t rapidly dropping weight that we know of.
Going on vacation in fancy hotel, all inclusive means guests can eat as much as they wish and what they wish, having a wide selection of snacks, sweets, and often delicious meals. Also all sorts of drinks, also available without any restrictions.
May be slightly different now but in 2014 most fancy foods and alcohol were significantly cheaper in countries like Bulgaria than they were in Germany. So often the deal was that people had access to lots of tasty things that they couldn't afford on daily basics. And that meant that they were just eating and drinking as much as they could, to take advantage of this situation.
It was pointed out that his friends were doing exactly that - so filling their stomach's with lots of food while Lars wasn't eating THAT much, which implies reasonable amount, not defficiencies.
• Maybe he was attacked but no one saw it. And then those men were out for revenge? Why? Makes no sense whatsoever. If he was in fact attacked, they followed Lars and did what with him to cause him to disappear for years? Makes no sense.
His friends haven't seen it. But they couldn't see that cause they weren't with him.
Why? Because they haven't finished beating him up and happened to meet him again.
Or cause he fought back and insulted them immensely this way.
For me it doesn't make less sense than attacking anyone for the first time. Does that make sense? Beating someone up just cause he's cheering for the other team? Or cause of his nationality? Or cause his looks? Doesn't make sense, yet it happens daily. And people who are capable of such things are usually not one timers, they're doing multiple assaults.

As I probably mentioned before somewhere. I'm not from Bulgaria but grew up in Eastern Europe.
And it wasn't weird at all to learn that after a party (no matter what kind of: so even weddings, funerals, birthdays or just random Sunday disco parties) attended by a bunch of young guys they attacked and beated up a "stranger" who dared to show up at the party, or visited the village and caught their eye in the wrong moment. Or cause they thought that guy caught the eye of their girlfriends. Or cause he didn't look many enough, was wearing wrong clothes.
And sure as hell they were more than willing to chase their victim in all sorts of crazy ways.

In some communities it'd be crazy to suspect that something like that could happen, cause it's just...
Well, it is what it is. In some places it doesn't happen. Luckily in my hometown it doesn't happen that often anymore either. But it was. And until I'll hear several accounts from 35+ Bulgarian people saying that such things were extremely unlikely to happen there, I'll keep believing those who were saying that it might.

There is no reason to consider only two or three scenarios:

1. Nothing happened, Lars just went crazy.
2. Lars got ear injury and went crazy.
3. Same group of guys attacked him after the match, chased him next night and somehow found him once again.

There is plenty more.
People who are already injured and scared are more likely to be targeted as targets of robbery and are at much, much greater risk of getting more injured why running away from the real or suspected danger than any random person.
• How were doctors treating Lars horribly? He was given medicine. What more can you do? I’ve had a ruptured eardrum and it’s temporarily painful but no big deal.
He had insurance that covered any sorts of medical needs. The doc that he went at first diagnosed ruptured eardrum, told him that he can't fly home and send him to the hospital in Varna. He was mocked at the hospital, they refused to talk with him in English or offer any sort of further explanations about his injury than the first doc did, they refused to let him stay overnight at hospital yet billed him for it anyway, gave him prescription without saying what it was and send him away.
A grown man acting like it’s the end of the world to have a ruptured eardrum, that’s strange behavior. Sure, don’t fly with it, but he had other transportation options he didn’t take.
Well, most men acts like it's end of the world when they're having a cold so I wouldn't call it strange that a guy who may have no idea what having rupture eardrum means and if that's only injury he got not wanting to risk permanent damage after he payed extra for medical insurance is not strange for me. So let's agree to disagree.
• So he was worried someone might fraudulently use his credit card? To the point that he cancels it so he can’t use it? That’s strange behavior.
There is only one way to cancel a credit card and it bans everyone from using it, including the owner. If his card was indeed copied then he won't have any money there anyway.
• The dr. at the airport had inconsistent statements?
Yes, he had.
Why would he be trying to hide anything? He had no connection to Lars and no reason to lie.
And you know that he had no reason to lie... how?
Being inconsistent and sharing several different stories about same event may be caused by several other reasons, not necessarily lying.
If he did nothing wrong then he had no reason to try to hide anything or no reason to lie.
If he did something wrong, likes to lie anyway, wasn't lying but got confused, was high or drunk at work, whitnessed his coworkers from airport doing something to Lars, or was working for 40 hours straight and couldn't feel his senses anymore...

But IMO I don't need super strong and specific theory explaining why he lied.
Cause as I pointed out several times already, lying is not even the only reason why his stories weren't consistent.
But it is, again, IMO good reason to not consider his input as particularly valuable.
• I think the antibiotics are a total red herring. He was acting strange way before the antibiotics.
Like when exactly?
• The people he vacationed with, the people who knew him, they though Lars was acting strangely.
Did they? There is a lot of that in "coverages" of this case, yet very little in actual quotes.
What I found is that they were surprised that he wasn't eating much at hotel, but there was a guy who was selling fruit snacks at the beach and by his account Lars was regular customer with him.
And that with whatever, undisclosed reason they were doubting that he was beaten up and got injured.
Same people claimed that they once lost sight of him as they got into McDonalds restaurant to get some food while Lars stayed outside and wandered away - but there was no walk-in McDonalds restaurant where they claimed to be, only a kiosk-like shack with kitchen and cashiers. And somehow these details aren't strange at all, just Lars stories are.
Somehow everyone Lars ran into and every place he went, people were out to get him. That’s not logical at all.
Nope, not everyone and not everywhere.

Some rather aggressive soccer fans, on the night with important, big time soccer match.
Then possibly same group of guys or some local thugs that were very common and easy to "meet" at night in that part of Varna.
Then... possibly someone who he met near or in airport toilets.

I agree that him being chased by the same group of guys all the time sound rather unlikely, mostly cause of the challenges of logistics... unless the taxi driver was kinda involved in it.

Lone German guy trying to mind his business around bunch of Eastern Europe soccer fans is like a red rug fur a bull.
Lone, scared tourist in yellow shirt with fancy looking bag in bad, high crime part of town is like a red rug for a bull.
And public toilets still are the most dangerous areas in rather safe buildings.

From all that I'd say that meeting dangerous situation at the airport toilet is the least likely, but at that point Lars already went through a lot and may need a little to get completely scared.
IF we'd insist that the danger he met was random. And it's still possible that it wasn't.
 
Yes, it has to, and it's even much more likely that it will in stressful situation. And so I said before that it is a possibility.

His mother and friends, in later coverages.
It wasn't said that he wasn't drinking at all, just something to the accord that getting drunk on a party wasn't his idea of having fun.

Exactly. No reason to take it into consideration as a strong possibility.

Going on vacation in fancy hotel, all inclusive means guests can eat as much as they wish and what they wish, having a wide selection of snacks, sweets, and often delicious meals. Also all sorts of drinks, also available without any restrictions.
May be slightly different now but in 2014 most fancy foods and alcohol were significantly cheaper in countries like Bulgaria than they were in Germany. So often the deal was that people had access to lots of tasty things that they couldn't afford on daily basics. And that meant that they were just eating and drinking as much as they could, to take advantage of this situation.
It was pointed out that his friends were doing exactly that - so filling their stomach's with lots of food while Lars wasn't eating THAT much, which implies reasonable amount, not defficiencies.

His friends haven't seen it. But they couldn't see that cause they weren't with him.
Why? Because they haven't finished beating him up and happened to meet him again.
Or cause he fought back and insulted them immensely this way.
For me it doesn't make less sense than attacking anyone for the first time. Does that make sense? Beating someone up just cause he's cheering for the other team? Or cause of his nationality? Or cause his looks? Doesn't make sense, yet it happens daily. And people who are capable of such things are usually not one timers, they're doing multiple assaults.

As I probably mentioned before somewhere. I'm not from Bulgaria but grew up in Eastern Europe.
And it wasn't weird at all to learn that after a party (no matter what kind of: so even weddings, funerals, birthdays or just random Sunday disco parties) attended by a bunch of young guys they attacked and beated up a "stranger" who dared to show up at the party, or visited the village and caught their eye in the wrong moment. Or cause they thought that guy caught the eye of their girlfriends. Or cause he didn't look many enough, was wearing wrong clothes.
And sure as hell they were more than willing to chase their victim in all sorts of crazy ways.

In some communities it'd be crazy to suspect that something like that could happen, cause it's just...
Well, it is what it is. In some places it doesn't happen. Luckily in my hometown it doesn't happen that often anymore either. But it was. And until I'll hear several accounts from 35+ Bulgarian people saying that such things were extremely unlikely to happen there, I'll keep believing those who were saying that it might.

There is no reason to consider only two or three scenarios:
1. Nothing happened, Lars just went crazy.
2. Lars got ear injury and went crazy.
3. Same group of guys attacked him after the match, chased him next night and somehow found him once again.

There is plenty more.
People who are already injured and scared are more likely to be targeted as targets of robbery and are at much, much greater risk of getting more injured why running away from the real or suspected danger than any random person.

He had insurance that covered any sorts of medical needs. The doc that he went at first diagnosed ruptured eardrum, told him that he can't fly home and send him to the hospital in Varna. He was mocked at the hospital, they refused to talk with him in English or offer any sort of further explanations about his injury than the first doc did, they refused to let him stay overnight at hospital yet billed him for it anyway, gave him prescription without saying what it was and send him away.

Well, most men acts like it's end of the world when they're having a cold so I wouldn't call it strange that a guy who may have no idea what having rupture eardrum means and if that's only injury he got not wanting to risk permanent damage after he payed extra for medical insurance is not strange for me. So let's agree to disagree.

There is only one way to cancel a credit card and it bans everyone from using it, including the owner. If his card was indeed copied then he won't have any money there anyway.

Yes, he had.

And you know that he had no reason to lie... how?
Being inconsistent and sharing several different stories about same event may be caused by several other reasons, not necessarily lying.
If he did nothing wrong then he had no reason to try to hide anything or no reason to lie.
If he did something wrong, likes to lie anyway, wasn't lying but got confused, was high or drunk at work, whitnessed his coworkers from airport doing something to Lars, or was working for 40 hours straight and couldn't feel his senses anymore...

But IMO I don't need super strong and specific theory explaining why he lied.
Cause as I pointed out several times already, lying is not even the only reason why his stories weren't consistent.
But it is, again, IMO good reason to not consider his input as particularly valuable.

Like when exactly?

Did they? There is a lot of that in "coverages" of this case, yet very little in actual quotes.
What I found is that they were surprised that he wasn't eating much at hotel, but there was a guy who was selling fruit snacks at the beach and by his account Lars was regular customer with him.
And that with whatever, undisclosed reason they were doubting that he was beaten up and got injured.
Same people claimed that they once lost sight of him as they got into McDonalds restaurant to get some food while Lars stayed outside and wandered away - but there was no walk-in McDonalds restaurant where they claimed to be, only a kiosk-like shack with kitchen and cashiers. And somehow these details aren't strange at all, just Lars stories are.

Nope, not everyone and not everywhere.

Some rather aggressive soccer fans, on the night with important, big time soccer match.
Then possibly same group of guys or some local thugs that were very common and easy to "meet" at night in that part of Varna.
Then... possibly someone who he met near or in airport toilets.

I agree that him being chased by the same group of guys all the time sound rather unlikely, mostly cause of the challenges of logistics... unless the taxi driver was kinda involved in it.

Lone German guy trying to mind his business around bunch of Eastern Europe soccer fans is like a red rug fur a bull.
Lone, scared tourist in yellow shirt with fancy looking bag in bad, high crime part of town is like a red rug for a bull.
And public toilets still are the most dangerous areas in rather safe buildings.

From all that I'd say that meeting dangerous situation at the airport toilet is the least likely, but at that point Lars already went through a lot and may need a little to get completely scared.
IF we'd insist that the danger he met was random. And it's still possible that it wasn't.
I agree with pretty much everything you say in this case. Thank you so much for your input.,
 
I guess multiple people can look at the same set of “facts” and come to completely different conclusions.
 
I guess multiple people can look at the same set of “facts” and come to completely different conclusions.
My guess is that within a 100 random people somewhat familiar with this case majority leans towards it being caused by mental issues of some sort.
And that if another 100 random people learned about this case from source that isn't strongly insisting on mental issues being the reason for Lars disappearance (as most do) some would conclude that's likely cause but that it'd be far from majority.
 

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