Found Deceased IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #37

[carbuff]

That kind of boxy SUV or van is extremely common though. There are three of them on our hill alone--maybe 25 houses total--all owned by people who make their living as contractors of one sort or another and only one of them with the business name on the side. In a city of 160,000+, that's probably 10-20,000 white vans.

 

[Squeeze]

RBBM ... "getting them from the back of the lake"

I have often wondered if the girls were lured into a home or garage that backed on to the lake. From what I understood WC to say when she left with her grandson to look for the girls, was she didn't see anyone? I took that to mean she couldn't find the girls, but also didn't see another person. moo

That was one or my theories early on. There is a house near that end of the lake that was for sale and vacant at the time. They could have been lured there and kept in the basement for a while. Or pulled into a garage and bound, maybe killed right away. I remember Olipop saying he lives near the lake, and nobody came knocking on his door.

 

[Grainne Dhu]

On the subject of who it might be: I read a couple weeks ago about a cold case that was solved via DNA. The perpetrator turned out to be a friend of a friend of one of the victim's siblings. Name never came up in the investigation because no one in the victim's family knew the perpetrator. He'd seen the victim at a large party and apparently stalked her for some period of time before killing her.

That's the kind of connection I wonder about in this case. So tenuous that it's almost not a connection at all.

 

[carbuff]

On the subject of who it might be: I read a couple weeks ago about a cold case that was solved via DNA. The perpetrator turned out to be a friend of a friend of one of the victim's siblings. Name never came up in the investigation because no one in the victim's family knew the perpetrator. He'd seen the victim at a large party and apparently stalked her for some period of time before killing her.

That's the kind of connection I wonder about in this case. So tenuous that it's almost not a connection at all.

Yeah. Me too. Maybe because it happened at the same time as Jessica Ridgeway, I get the same vibe of a young and dangerous predator who maybe doesn't have a long record but has some significant clues. Like Jessica's murderer, who had tortured and killed a cat.

 

[Grainne Dhu]

Yeah. Me too. Maybe because it happened at the same time as Jessica Ridgeway, I get the same vibe of a young and dangerous predator who maybe doesn't have a long record but has some significant clues. Like Jessica's murderer, who had tortured and killed a cat.

That makes sense to me. Supposedly the rule of thumb is that young male perpetrators tend to select very young or elderly victims, people they feel confident they can control and overwhelm. On the other hand, taking more than one victim at a time indicates an older and more experienced perp but more about this below.

So, so, so... where does that take me? It makes me wonder if the boxy white vehicle that was seen that day was being driven by the under aged son of the owner. In Iowa, 16 year olds can get an intermediate driver's license. In fact, reflecting Iowa's rural heritage, kids as young as 14.5 years old can get school licenses under certain conditions, which allow them to drive themselves back and forth from school but since Elizabeth and Lyric disappeared during school break, I think a driver who only had a school license would have looked enough out of place to attract attention.

Back to a hypothetical perp who was maybe 17 years old. Old enough for an intermediate license which would allow him to drive without adult supervision except 12:30 am to 5 am. Any list compiled from the vehicle license databank would show the adult who owned the vehicle. Would they question every single person who owned such a vehicle? I doubt it because such a list would include literally thousands of people. It would only be useful as a way to narrow the potential pool of suspects by comparing it to other lists.

If the registered owner of the vehicle worked, it was probably during the day since most people work during the day. I can think of a dozen ways a kid with a big bad secret could hide vehicle use from a parent who was at work. For instance, have a part time job and occasionally fake shifts to get time to stoke fantasies and go trolling for a victim. If the teen perp was able to function more or less normally in every day life or at least in front of his parents, the parents probably weren't in the habit of checking with his work supervisor to make sure he was actually working all the shifts he claimed.

Why two victims? I just thought of this. The two girls were riding their bicycles but I bet they got separated by several seconds at times. What if, for whatever reason, Lyric was ahead, turned a corner and was confronted by an assailant before Elizabeth got there? The perpetrator just wanted one victim but now he's got two and can't let either one go for fear of being identified.

Or flip it: what if the girls decided to race and agreed to give Lizzie a headstart to make the race more fair? The perp confronts Elizabeth and then suddenly there's Lyric, too.

Either way, the perpetrator could have had control over one girl (either physically holding onto one or showing a weapon) and the other girl would go along out of love and loyalty.

 

[Grainne Dhu]

Another thought about a perpetrator younger than 18: one of the things on the checklist the PD released about behaviours that might indicate guilt is the perpetrator moving away from the area after the crime.

What would be more natural than an 18 year old going away to school (college, technical school, etc) in September? With such an obvious and normal explanation for leaving the area, might people who know him cross that behaviour off the list?

 

[carbuff]

Your analysis brings up another possibility: two perps, one older.

 

[Grainne Dhu]

Your analysis brings up another possibility: two perps, one older.

The following question is not meant in a skeptical or mean spirited way; I'm still (after so long) trying to put theories together in my head.

What is it that leads you to think that one perp would be older? I'm assuming by older you mean significantly older, as in a matter of several years, rather than meaning one is older by less than a year (which would mean the two perps were in the same age cohort).

Something John Douglas wrote years ago has stuck with me for a long time and caused me to really look at many situations with a different eye. It has been several years since I read it but the gist of it is this: He used the example of an elementary school principal who had a thing for watching young kids laugh while he tickled their bare feet, to the point where he was bribing kindergarteners and first graders with candy to let him take off their shoes and tickle their feet in his office. He wasn't touching their genitalia, he wasn't fondling himself in front of them, it was a very low level and non-damaging type of interaction. The question was whether John Douglas thought the principal should be prohibited from any job interacting with children or whether seeking out counselling and enforcing rules about door always open when children are in his office or another adult always present when children went to his office would be enough.

John Douglas said that he didn't think that what the principal had done was psychologically damaging to children because tickling is a common activity between kids and between adults and children. However, Mr Douglas felt that the principal should be prohibited from working with children nonetheless because if the principal ever acted on his urge again and the child threatened to tell, that the principal might kill the child in the panic of the moment.

Then I think over the last few years where there have been several high profile cases where teenage boys partying egged each other into getting a girl drunk or drugged, then sexually assaulting her and recording the assaults with their cell phones.

See where I'm going with this? I wonder if two teenage boys, maybe drunk or high, egged each other on into doing something neither of them would have done by himself. And then when the assault was over, they panicked.

 

[pappa rob]

I would think if it had been just teens that they'd been caught already. I know when I lived in a small town in Iowa, it was pretty hard to get away with anything. It seemed everybody knew what everyone else was up to. I'll admit this was a long time ago, but small towns don't seem to change much. I think it took a lot of planning or luck for whom ever did this getting away with this for so long.

 

[Squeeze]

But, that would explained why no one was caught via DNA. I still think of the skate park, and if they had gone the route of Fareway as has been suggested, they world have gone by it.

 

[pappa rob]

But, that would explained why no one was caught via DNA. I still think of the skate park, and if they had gone the route of Fareway as has been suggested, they world have gone by it.

First LE has to a sample of the perps DNA before they can be caught. Without that, it's all guesswork.

 

[Grainne Dhu]

I would think if it had been just teens that they'd been caught already. I know when I lived in a small town in Iowa, it was pretty hard to get away with anything. It seemed everybody knew what everyone else was up to. I'll admit this was a long time ago, but small towns don't seem to change much. I think it took a lot of planning or luck for whom ever did this getting away with this for so long.

Evansdale has a small town atmosphere but it is part of the Waterloo/Cedar Falls metro area; the perps may not have been from Evansdale.

On the other hand, whoever did it knew about the bike trail and about the particular bit of bike trail where the bicycles were left, which argues for someone local to that spot.

 

[Aymstriss]

First LE has to a sample of the perps DNA before they can be caught. Without that, it's all guesswork.

I would bet every penny I have, as well as my life, that LE did obtain DNA from Seven Bridges....

 

[song22]

http://www.kcrg.com/subject/news/iowa-driver-pulled-over-by-suspected-police-impersonator-20150529

Highly doubtful that something like this happened, because you'd think a witness would have seen--but it still made me think of possibilities.

 

[SeriouslySearching]

I find it interesting no one has thought of a second perp as being a woman. Why couldn't it be a couple?

If they did find DNA at the scene (which is entirely possible), they can't get search warrants to test everyone. If it doesn't turn up in the data base then LE is pretty much at a standstill until it does or until they can get a sw to swab a POI/Suspect. No DNA match could only mean no past criminal history where they collect DNA not that the perp doesn't live in the area.

 

[Grainne Dhu]

http://www.kcrg.com/subject/news/iowa-driver-pulled-over-by-suspected-police-impersonator-20150529

Highly doubtful that something like this happened, because you'd think a witness would have seen--but it still made me think of possibilities.

Depends on exactly where the girls were abducted.

If the perp found them at Meyers Lake, sitting inside the fenced area where their bicycles were found, he could have been on foot and relied on a fake uniform and/or badge to fool them. Maybe tell them they were in trouble and to come with him, walk them through the little wooded area and into a vehicle parked on Maiden Lane.

If he abducted them somewhere other than that one spot, then a vehicle with police-style lights could have been used but that would up the risk of detection, as you noted. It seems like it would be too much risk but many perps have demonstrated insane levels of risk taking. Sometimes it leads to the perp being caught right away, sometimes the case goes cold until the perp is arrested for something else.

Like the Brooke Wilberger case. Joel Patrick Courtney abducted her from an open parking lot sometime in the morning on 24 May 2004 by simply driving up near her, asking her for directions and then grabbing her when she came closer to him. He used the same MO to abduct a woman in Albuquerque New Mexico in the early evening. Even though both crimes were committed out in the open, there were no eye witnesses to either attack.

So many possibilities...

 

[Grainne Dhu]

I find it interesting no one has thought of a second perp as being a woman. Why couldn't it be a couple?

If they did find DNA at the scene (which is entirely possible), they can't get search warrants to test everyone. If it doesn't turn up in the data base then LE is pretty much at a standstill until it does or until they can get a sw to swab a POI/Suspect. No DNA match could only mean no past criminal history where they collect DNA not that the perp doesn't live in the area.

Well, one argument against it being a woman is that it is unusual for a woman to be involved in this sort of crime. Not completely unheard of but very unusual.

If LE did get DNA, I infer that it was male DNA because I'm absolutely certain that if they found female DNA, they'd hit the media ASAP with that info.

No match so far could also mean that the perp does have a criminal record but his DNA swab is caught in some state's backlog, waiting to be sequenced and recorded. In early 2014, the IADCI had 3000 DNA tests in their backlog.

 

[threecrazykids]

I would bet every penny I have, as well as my life, that LE did obtain DNA from Seven Bridges....

And if that DNA matched anyone who has ever been charged with a crime (at least since they started taking DNA for anything over a misdemeanor) they'd be able to put them at the scene.

I just can't believe the lack of chatter around town of "so and so had the cops at his house last night - asking them about E&L case" or "I heard from Gladys Kravitz that she saw Jimmy B driving his grandpas old white SUV" and all that jazz that goes along with small town gossip. Yes Evansdale is a part of a greater area but it is still small enough that people have the "town gossipers".

I am sort of surprised we haven't had any word on the case since Mr. Can'tKeepHisPantsOn got fired.

 

[carbuff]

The following question is not meant in a skeptical or mean spirited way; I'm still (after so long) trying to put theories together in my head.

What is it that leads you to think that one perp would be older? I'm assuming by older you mean significantly older, as in a matter of several years, rather than meaning one is older by less than a year (which would mean the two perps were in the same age cohort).

Something John Douglas wrote years ago has stuck with me for a long time and caused me to really look at many situations with a different eye. It has been several years since I read it but the gist of it is this: He used the example of an elementary school principal who had a thing for watching young kids laugh while he tickled their bare feet, to the point where he was bribing kindergarteners and first graders with candy to let him take off their shoes and tickle their feet in his office. He wasn't touching their genitalia, he wasn't fondling himself in front of them, it was a very low level and non-damaging type of interaction. The question was whether John Douglas thought the principal should be prohibited from any job interacting with children or whether seeking out counselling and enforcing rules about door always open when children are in his office or another adult always present when children went to his office would be enough.

John Douglas said that he didn't think that what the principal had done was psychologically damaging to children because tickling is a common activity between kids and between adults and children. However, Mr Douglas felt that the principal should be prohibited from working with children nonetheless because if the principal ever acted on his urge again and the child threatened to tell, that the principal might kill the child in the panic of the moment.

Then I think over the last few years where there have been several high profile cases where teenage boys partying egged each other into getting a girl drunk or drugged, then sexually assaulting her and recording the assaults with their cell phones.

See where I'm going with this? I wonder if two teenage boys, maybe drunk or high, egged each other on into doing something neither of them would have done by himself. And then when the assault was over, they panicked.

Sorry for the delay responding. I was down with a sinus/migraine for several days.

I was thinking of a Dean Corll sort of situation, with a younger boy bird-dogging for the older man, but your scenario of two boys egging each other on really fits this situation very well emotionally and psychologically.

 

[Marilynilpa]

I find it interesting no one has thought of a second perp as being a woman. Why couldn't it be a couple?

If they did find DNA at the scene (which is entirely possible), they can't get search warrants to test everyone. If it doesn't turn up in the data base then LE is pretty much at a standstill until it does or until they can get a sw to swab a POI/Suspect. No DNA match could only mean no past criminal history where they collect DNA not that the perp doesn't live in the area.

I think it is quite possible a woman was involved in some aspect of the kidnapping. JMO.