IN - Lauren Spierer, 20, Bloomington, 03 June 2011 - #24

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Hmm.. I wonder if rather than a connection (such as religion) between the vic and perp/s a disconnect isn't more likely..as in ethnicity?

IMHO, it's more likely demographic and geographic than "ethnic". I was an out-of-state student at a big ten and tended to be thrown together with other out-of-staters for a variety of reasons, including housing choices, who joined which clubs/frats/sororities, who was in the honors college (largely out-of-staters because it was more competitive to get in from OOS), etc.
 
I would guess that LS' parents are wild about how much HT has been talking to the press, but I think that LS' relationship with BW was much deeper. They were camp friends, grew up together, visited each others' homes in the years before college; BW's parents have expressed fondness for LS, and so I would guess that LS' parents are very fond of BW, too.

ah... but IF they thought BW was hiding something... they would quickly lose that affection, I think... OTOH, BW may be the only true friend that LS had here...
 
This is an interesting theory and got me to thinking, since we have explored every other possible scenario, due to the lack of facts....

What if Lauren was in no shape to say "no".. And JR was there all along or came by and all three guys "had there way with her" so to speak. I have heard of this happening with an intoxicated girl at frat party and even with a girl in a group of jocks at a party, when I was in high school.. Often the girls are too embarassed or can't remember enough to report this type of thing, so the guys who are also usually drunk/high feel empowered or safe in "risking it". But what if in this case LS died either from something she had taken, alcohol posioning, her heart condition, or even because one of them got to rough with her... Then they came up with their story together: one of them, perhaps the best at lying agreed to be the last to see her and the one who is the worst at lying decided to just go with memory loss... and they have all stuck to the story because all of them would be implicated if she were found....

Now all of this is a whole lot of supposition, what ifs... etc. Just another thought to add to the many others we have talked about.

Angelonline - your theory really answers the question I had about "why her "friends" if they thought she had succumbed to an OD wouldn't have simply left her."
 
IMHO, it's more likely demographic and geographic than "ethnic". I was an out-of-state student at a big ten and tended to be thrown together with other out-of-staters for a variety of reasons, including housing choices, who joined which clubs/frats/sororities, who was in the honors college (largely out-of-staters because it was more competitive to get in from OOS), etc.

Thanks for that.

I think the cultural roots disconnect among this group is what has me wondering..not necessarily ethnicity or religion.
 
I've been thinking more about what might motivate everyone to keep quiet.

Sex surely qualifies, but they've all given DNA samples and their places have been searched, so I tend to rule that out (it still seems possible, certainly, but unlikely). [And as for the idea that "activity" means something, see the "just her presence" quote in this article - http://www.heraldtimesonline.com/stories/2011/06/09/news.635642.sto - which also makes clear that there was just one person with her ("somebody else").] "They," however, means the known POIs. We still have a likely fourth person (beyond JR, CR, and MB) at 5 North who may not have given a sample. It seems unlikely, however, that they had sex with LS without JR's knowledge and that this led to her death in a way that is consistent with JR's story, which he's told to a polygraph. They might have, however, if he passed out, which seems entirely possible if xanax was involved. But this still doesn't explain how she disappeared (more on that below)...

What else would motivate their not talking? Well, drugs, of course - you can easily base a murder charge on them. I speculate, based on crediting what has been said elsewhere, that LS got drugs from JR, whether sold or otherwise.

But that's only one person. I have no good reason to believe she got any drugs from CR, though it seems possible. Assuming she didn't, what makes him clam up? It's been claimed that he was "aggressive" towards her (http://www.examiner.com/headlines-i...f-last-man-to-see-missing-ny-coed-is-revealed). Perhaps that involved encouraging her to take more drugs (than she intended). Maybe it involved something else (non-sexual) that might have helped lead to a heart attack; that would be something to worry about as long as he's aware of the long QT syndrome. Makes sense, right?

As for MB, I don't really see how he fits in. Perhaps he was among the group at JR's - there's been inconsistent reporting on that score - and also encouraged her to do more drugs (or even supplied them). But if not, I would tend to think that he isn't talking because he really doesn't know anything that about the night in question that helps solve the case. One thing we know he does know, though, is LS' and CR's condition when they arrived home. For that reason, given his polygraph, I would tend to think the accounts we've heard on that score are reasonably accurate.

So I believe that JR and CR(?) aren't talking mostly because of potential drug-related responsibility, while MB (and CR?) can't say much because he(/they) doesn't(/don't) know.

But this doesn't explain how LS disappeared, of course. I can't come up with a scenario in which JR and CR dispose of the body without MB being involved. And I can't really believe that happened, given that they've all taken polygraphs. Of course, by that logic, it's also at least a little difficult to believe that JR disposed of the body alone or with some other person (though certainly possible - note the family's questioning JR's story that LS made the 4:15 call). Maybe JR and CR in fact (selectively) told the truth, and really have no idea what happened to her, but do know that they may well be liable for whatever did happen nevertheless. I feel like this might make the most sense from what we think they've said, as unlikely as it might seem.

But is there another theory that's consistent with their telling the (selective) truth that also involves their not telling the whole truth? Perhaps it's true that JR watched LS turn the corner alone, and that she seemed ok. But what if someone other than a random abductor knew she was coming around the corner and saw her later? Someone who was at JR's (and possibly but not necessarily involved in the earlier confrontation)? Maybe that person, I'll call them the Mystery POI (MPOI), had gone into the alley, either because they were heading home or in order to get their vehicle (perhaps to drive LS home, which supposedly was the purpose of the call to DR, or to drive home themselves). Whether or not she meant to meet up with this person, LS might have walked around the corner instead of into the alley because she didn't want to walk over the gravel on the way home/to meet up. Maybe something happened to LS after she turned the corner, after which she was found by the MPOI. Maybe this is even what was seen by the mystery witness, albeit at a different time than that reported. Suppose the MPOI disposed of her. Apply the same question - why would they do so? Because they had supplied/encouraged drugs as well and (knew they) might be liable on that basis? Because they are connected to/afraid of a drug network? Because they did something to LS? Hit her with their car (or startled her, causing a heart attack)?

Is there a way JR (or CR or perhaps MB) has not mentioned the MPOI and provided the relevant details to LE? It seems hard to imagine what the MPOI would have over JR (and CR). Is JR (and CR)'s own potential liability enough, knowing that fingering the MPOI makes it much more likely that LS is found and drugs discovered to be the cause of death? Perhaps JR has told the truth about what he knows, which is nothing about what happened after LS left (and CR likewise really doesn't remember). Is that possible? It seems likely JR would have contacted the MPOI (assuming he has their contact info), especially if they are an IU student. Could the MPOI have refused to respond? LE would presumably be all over them, in that case. Could the MPOI have simply lied to him and said they saw nothing? Probably not if he was supposed to drive LS home, but perhaps if they were both simply leaving at the same time. LE presumably would still be interested, however. Is the confrontation over JR's cooperation really about his willingness to speak about this MPOI? Is that why CS used all caps in her letter to a/the MPOI when she said "YOU HAVE NO IDEA WHO YOU HAVE TAKEN FROM US"? Because the MPOI didn't know LS? (this doesn't explain why she says "Perhaps we have met," or why she suggests the MPOI might know the family recently returned to NY for RS's birthday; those statements in fact might cause me to question my JW support if it were not for the all caps statement and the other evidence I've seen in support of the notion the family doesn't believe he's involved).

The big question, of course, is who is the MPOI? Are they perhaps the POI that LE had not interviewed and that had left the county (or State?) in this report (http://www.idsnews.com/news/story.aspx?id=81889)? This assumes that that POI is not JR himself (the early reports are a little vague on this score, but do suggest that JR was interviewed in some fashion in the days after 6/3, if not necessarily in person).

Is this a crazy theory?
 
Regarding Lauren's partying habits, I read on the phish site from a guy that I believe to be JW's roommate that that particular night was NOT typical. Here's the link:

http://phantasytour.com/bands/1/posts?page=15&topic_id=2744202

Thanks for that link.

Also, this thread at phish says that JW never spoke to CR, and he only tried to talk to JR. Then what was the 2nd confrontation at 5 North that morning to which CR's attorney referred? Was someone else continuing the Smallwood altercation?
 
Thanks for that link.

Also, this thread at phish says that JW never spoke to CR, and he only tried to talk to JR. Then what was the 2nd confrontation at 5 North that morning to which CR's attorney referred? Was someone else continuing the Smallwood altercation?

I think it's either that or other friends of LS. I'm not sure it's meaningful either way.
 
I hadn't seen the entirety of this article until now - http://www.lohud.com/article/20110905/NEWS02/109050313/Lauren-Spierer-s-college-friends-Where-you-

While it may not be meaningful, it seems clear there's some daylight between the family and HT

Tamir and Gornish said they have the same recurring nightmare in which they're frantically searching for Spierer, who suddenly appears out of nowhere, as if nothing happened.

"In all the dreams, all of us are freaking out, and she pops up saying, 'How's it going?' "

Interesting dream, and shared by two different people. These young women were close friends of LS. Maybe there is something that LS said once that could be a clue but they can't quite recall. Maybe it's something that they fear. What kind of person would let her friends go frantic, and then "pop up" as if nothing had happened? Could it be that they suspect that LS is an adult runaway?
 
Just a guess: both HT and LS looked up to JR as an "older brother"-figure. The tone of HT's comments about how she & LS spent a lot of time at his place their freshman year, and also JR's claim that he jokingly told LS she could not leave if she stumbled, all sounds very brotherly. LS was afraid that night, afraid to return to Smallwood, so she goes back to JR's place; so she must have trusted him. Therefore, JMO seems unlikely that JR, CR, or MB would have raped LS or acted to cover up a rape.

Great points and good reasons why HT and JR may have each others backs in the matter but for reasons other than to cover up a rape...say a suspected over dose...but a cover-up none-the-less.
I believe the body would have been discovered by now if JR, CR, or MB had disposed of it in the short time they would have had before daylight on 6/3. A whole lot of area has been searched.
If it was one of them then they certainly are good at hiding a body or just very lucky....especially being non-locals.

LE having not located the body yet leads me to believe that someone with strong knowledge of the area outside of Bloomington is more likely responsible for at least the disposal.

Where the body is eventually located will certainly help LE figure out who the perp/s is.
Likewise, figuring out who the most likely perp/s is can certainly help locate the body and incidentally (for now) this is the extent to which I am concerned with who did what.

Unless someone comes forward with a confession or damning evidence against another this case will likely sit idle until the body is located. Until then there is no evidence that a crime has been committed beyond illegal drug use/trafficking.
 
Just wanted to add a sidenote to the MPOI theory from above. I do think it serves us well to realize that at this point in time JR is the only person that we know of that can identify anyone at his house after a certain point. DR, CR, and MB can all comment on who was there *earlier* in the night, but at the critical second LS appearance, it is completely JR's whim to tell LE who was there. If he selectively forgets to mention someone for any reason, than LE would have no way to know they were there at all. Not even really risky to do when his sobriety can provide a fallback if need be.

Oh, figured I should add that I'm not trying to lend support to that theory, only that I thought it served as a reminder that JR can pretty much dictate anything he wanted without consequence so far.
 
I hasten to add that I have no particular suspect for the MPOI, though some obvious candidates present themselves. Maybe even a non-obvious candidate?
 
I hasten to add that I have no particular suspect for the MPOI, though some obvious candidates present themselves. Maybe even a non-obvious candidate?

I don't know either, but I will say that I find the prospect of a solo out of town guest utterly ridiculous. College kid driving 6+ hours alone to party it up? Just find that really hard to believe.

...unless JR was his passenger to/from home as well, which I suppose could be the case.
 
Just wanted to add a sidenote to the MPOI theory from above. I do think it serves us well to realize that at this point in time JR is the only person that we know of that can identify anyone at his house after a certain point. DR, CR, and MB can all comment on who was there *earlier* in the night, but at the critical second LS appearance, it is completely JR's whim to tell LE who was there. If he selectively forgets to mention someone for any reason, than LE would have no way to know they were there at all. Not even really risky to do when his sobriety can provide a fallback if need be.

Oh, figured I should add that I'm not trying to lend support to that theory, only that I thought it served as a reminder that JR can pretty much dictate anything he wanted without consequence so far.

Good point. Let me add two comments:
1. MB can tell who was at JR's earlier IF he was there (or if CR told him).
2. CR (and MB?)'s knowledge of who was there is not relevant if the MPOI did not show up until later in the night. CR, however, might have an inkling or more if the MPOI was involved in the confrontation.
 
Good point. Let me add two comments:
1. MB can tell who was at JR's earlier IF he was there (or if CR told him).
2. CR (and MB?)'s knowledge of who was there is not relevant if the MPOI did not show up until later in the night. CR, however, might have an inkling or more if the MPOI was involved in the confrontation.

It was quoted early on that the party at JR's had already run out of alcohol by the time LS and DR arrived. While providing some indirect evidence of drug use right there, I think this also provides a source that there had to have been many other unnamed people there. These people might not be important at all, but I think they are precisely the type of people who the Spierer family would like to hear from and exactly the people who have felt better staying back in the shadows.
 
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