Japan - Miyazawa family of 4 murdered, Setagaya, Tokyo, 30 Dec 2000 #2

[fridaybaker]

I know the theory seems to be that the killer is no longer in Japan. But I was just reading information about Satoshi Kirishima, a Japanese terrorist & criminal who had been hiding in Japan since 1975. He was found only because he confessed. So, I guess it is possible that a highly-wanted criminal (including his mugshot being displayed in police stations across Japan) in Japan could avoid detection....

Yes, and apparently his face was plastered all over Japan!

Now, if we could only find the other Satoshi: Nakamoto. But I digress. Carry on…

 

[FacelessPodcast]

I know the theory seems to be that the killer is no longer in Japan. But I was just reading information about Satoshi Kirishima, a Japanese terrorist & criminal who had been hiding in Japan since 1975. He was found only because he confessed. So, I guess it is possible that a highly-wanted criminal (including his mugshot being displayed in police stations across Japan) in Japan could avoid detection....

Oh it’s absolutely possible for someone to live off the grid for years and that includes the killer in this case. We’ve seen in other high-profile murders, such as Ichihashi’s case, he went on the run for years and changed his face — only getting caught when he more or less gave up.

It’s simply my theory that the murderer in the Miyazawa case has left because that seems far likelier / the evidence compels me that way. Also if the police are correct and the killer was as young as 15, it’s hard to imagine him having the resources to disappear in the way someone in the Scorpion Cell of the EAAJAF might be able to…

 

[10ofRods]

See my previous post just now, @10ofRods! But yes, 27.5cm shoe while only being around 5'7. Pretty big shoes for a guy of that height. This number I've been looking for isn't an exact science of course, it's just for the purposes of showing that while the population of Tokyo is vast, the population in which he could actually be hiding must necessarily be much, much smaller. [For a project I'm currently working on]. And, sure enough, according to my stats friend, it's just over 5,000 based on stuff like his blood type, age, etc. And we didn't even use the full range of details about him we know meaning the real number is likely far smaller.

And within that group, I predict there would be only ONE person with that mtDNA and that Y chromosome pattern (I did a bit of math on the mtDNA - it's a very small percentage of the population and almost none of them would be in Japan...at any point in time as H15 is thoroughly European - and fairly rare).

I really like your approach to this case. While we may never actually find the killer, you're amply demonstrating how a strong investigation could proceed. IGG would be the way to go with this one - but it looks like the people of Japan are not as likely to use 23andme or Ancestry and therefore, even less likely to load up to Othram or other IGG sites. I think the overall low crime rates in Japan (historically) probably factor into this.

I have now located your podcast and queued it up. Looking forward to it very much.

 

[dms]

And within that group, I predict there would be only ONE person with that mtDNA and that Y chromosome pattern (I did a bit of math on the mtDNA - it's a very small percentage of the population and almost none of them would be in Japan...at any point in time as H15 is thoroughly European - and fairly rare).

I really like your approach to this case. While we may never actually find the killer, you're amply demonstrating how a strong investigation could proceed. IGG would be the way to go with this one - but it looks like the people of Japan are not as likely to use 23andme or Ancestry and therefore, even less likely to load up to Othram or other IGG sites. I think the overall low crime rates in Japan (historically) probably factor into this.

I have now located your podcast and queued it up. Looking forward to it very much.

It's very, very good.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

And within that group, I predict there would be only ONE person with that mtDNA and that Y chromosome pattern (I did a bit of math on the mtDNA - it's a very small percentage of the population and almost none of them would be in Japan...at any point in time as H15 is thoroughly European - and fairly rare).

I really like your approach to this case. While we may never actually find the killer, you're amply demonstrating how a strong investigation could proceed. IGG would be the way to go with this one - but it looks like the people of Japan are not as likely to use 23andme or Ancestry and therefore, even less likely to load up to Othram or other IGG sites. I think the overall low crime rates in Japan (historically) probably factor into this.

I have now located your podcast and queued it up. Looking forward to it very much.

Thank you so much, @10ofRods! Here's hoping you enjoy it.

You're right about the lack of interest in 23andMe etc in Japan. There's simply no demand for it, ignoring the privacy concerns and lack of legal framework. Plus, as my Japanese friend said, due to long-held prejudices, some people might be getting 'unwelcome' news re: their heritage (considering they view themselves as 'unique' and whatnot). I think the best hope on the DNA front in Japan is that a law will be passed that allows for new investigative techniques to be applied in certain exceptions. The Miyazawa case would be the first in line there. But there are others. Ryushi, my project partner in the podcast for example, spoke with a man whose wife and child were murdered in their apartment. I think this was in Osaka. The man moved out immediately but has been paying rent on that apartment ever since as it contains the killer's DNA. So, while the police have their hands tied, he keeps that apartment as a time capsule in the hope the law changes and the killer's DNA can actually be looked into (as he's not on the offender database).

Now, all that said, if there's the most remote chance the killer in the Miyazawa case is beyond Japanese borders, I simply see no solid reason why the TMPD couldn't contact their counterparts in the US or Europe to share fingerprints, the killer's DNA sample, or even his criminal profile with them. (I can think of a few reasons *why* they might be unwilling but frankly, beyond trying to save face, none are compelling to me).

 

[FacelessPodcast]

It's very, very good.

@dms

 

[10ofRods]

Thank you so much, @10ofRods! Here's hoping you enjoy it.

You're right about the lack of interest in 23andMe etc in Japan. There's simply no demand for it, ignoring the privacy concerns and lack of legal framework. Plus, as my Japanese friend said, due to long-held prejudices, some people might be getting 'unwelcome' news re: their heritage (considering they view themselves as 'unique' and whatnot). I think the best hope on the DNA front in Japan is that a law will be passed that allows for new investigative techniques to be applied in certain exceptions. The Miyazawa case would be the first in line there. But there are others. Ryushi, my project partner in the podcast for example, spoke with a man whose wife and child were murdered in their apartment. I think this was in Osaka. The man moved out immediately but has been paying rent on that apartment ever since as it contains the killer's DNA. So, while the police have their hands tied, he keeps that apartment as a time capsule in the hope the law changes and the killer's DNA can actually be looked into (as he's not on the offender database).

Now, all that said, if there's the most remote chance the killer in the Miyazawa case is beyond Japanese borders, I simply see no solid reason why the TMPD couldn't contact their counterparts in the US or Europe to share fingerprints, the killer's DNA sample, or even his criminal profile with them. (I can think of a few reasons *why* they might be unwilling but frankly, beyond trying to save face, none are compelling to me).

That's a fascinating thought! If they sent the DNA they have through Othram and the other IGG providers, they might get a familial hit - especially on the mother. With regular genealogical methods, after that hit, they might be able to provide the Japanese authorities with leads.

It's still a long shot, but if a sibling of the killer's mother or the mother herself had other children and one of them moved to the US, they could be in the database. Or their own children could be in the database, but that would still create a family tree.

 

[TravelingBug]

I haven't read the first thread yet (but I will) and I will start listening to the podcast tonight.

I'm guessing from what I've read so far that neither the mtDNA nor the Y chromosome haplogroup has been leaked. Is that right?

So I wish we knew the exact letters for both the mtDNA and Y chromosome (due to its greater mutability, it has more subgroups and therefore more specificity - but can only be gotten from a male).

HTH.

So glad you're here, @10ofRods

 

[Charlot123]

That's a fascinating thought! If they sent the DNA they have through Othram and the other IGG providers, they might get a familial hit - especially on the mother. With regular genealogical methods, after that hit, they might be able to provide the Japanese authorities with leads.

It's still a long shot, but if a sibling of the killer's mother or the mother herself had other children and one of them moved to the US, they could be in the database. Or their own children could be in the database, but that would still create a family tree.

Several years ago I was tracing one line (maternal) of someone that looked like a poi at that time. Different case, of course. And to my surprise, found out that in his mom's family, lots of women died young, or never got married, or left no kids. There were just a couple of direct maternal lines. Very interesting. So we assume that maternal mito DNA is "nameless" because women get married and change names, but maybe there were few girls born in the family, or most died childless. And given that H15 (now I can name it as @FacelessPodcast did) is not very common, it might be a viable way to go. (Or maybe, FMS will narrow it down).

 

[10ofRods]

Several years ago I was tracing one line (maternal) of someone that looked like a poi at that time. Different case, of course. And to my surprise, found out that in his mom's family, lots of women died young, or never got married, or left no kids. There were just a couple of direct maternal lines. Very interesting. So we assume that maternal mito DNA is "nameless" because women get married and change names, but maybe there were few girls born in the family, or most died childless. And given that H15 (now I can name it as @FacelessPodcast did) is not very common, it might be a viable way to go. (Or maybe, FMS will narrow it down).

Seems to me that the vast majority of women with that mtDNA are living in Central and Eastern Europe (I think Serbia has the highest number). H1 and H3 are far more common (as is H).

So, an Eastern/Central European woman gave birth to the killer, and was joined with an East Asian male. I can't find a genealogical group for H15 (some Y chromosome patterns have their own groups - but I can't find any for O-M). i haven't spent hours and hours looking and I don't read or type Japanese or any Eastern European language, which hinders the process - if such sites exist.

Probably not a ton of marriages of that type (or sexual liaisons).

I'll throw one more thing out there. I firmly believe that people who commit crimes like this typically have another gene that creates an abnormal right pre-frontal cortex (found in research on serial killers and murderers in prison) and there might be a specific gene related to the amygdala or hippcampus as well. IOW, this was the work of a cold-blooded sociopath and there's good research that states such a state is highly linked to a smaller right pre-frontal cortex. They can certainly learn all the things, they just don't run it through a moral compass before they act - and they don't feel guilty. Indeed, men with that gene are likely to have more children with multiple partners and spend little to no resources on raising their children (or even remain in the picture).

These are just hunches, but somewhere out there it's likely there's a mother who raised a highly anti-social son, who committed these crimes.

IMO.

 

[dotr]

2013

'Professor James Fallon explains the beginnings of his work studying the brians of criminals and murders. Would his work prove the existence of a signature brain profile of a serial killer or are there other factors to consider?'

 

[Charlot123]

Seems to me that the vast majority of women with that mtDNA are living in Central and Eastern Europe (I think Serbia has the highest number). H1 and H3 are far more common (as is H).

So, an Eastern/Central European woman gave birth to the killer, and was joined with an East Asian male. I can't find a genealogical group for H15 (some Y chromosome patterns have their own groups - but I can't find any for O-M). i haven't spent hours and hours looking and I don't read or type Japanese or any Eastern European language, which hinders the process - if such sites exist.

Probably not a ton of marriages of that type (or sexual liaisons).

I'll throw one more thing out there. I firmly believe that people who commit crimes like this typically have another gene that creates an abnormal right pre-frontal cortex (found in research on serial killers and murderers in prison) and there might be a specific gene related to the amygdala or hippcampus as well. IOW, this was the work of a cold-blooded sociopath and there's good research that states such a state is highly linked to a smaller right pre-frontal cortex. They can certainly learn all the things, they just don't run it through a moral compass before they act - and they don't feel guilty. Indeed, men with that gene are likely to have more children with multiple partners and spend little to no resources on raising their children (or even remain in the picture).

These are just hunches, but somewhere out there it's likely there's a mother who raised a highly anti-social son, who committed these crimes.

IMO.

It is the beginning, but very interesting. I can see where the amygdala could be involved, and maybe prefrontal cortex in general. I wonder if smaller R prefrontal cortex in sociopathy correlates with handedness, i.e., does it apply to R-handed people?

About mitogroups. Even the same subclade doesn’t mean much. Mine, I thought, was the commonest, but FTDNA where I did full mitochondrial sequence revealed a private mutation, so now it is “very rare”. I wonder if the perp’s H15, rare as it is (Southern Europe, but some other areas, e.g. met among the Druzes), might also be more specific if they do full mito.

 

[SteveL]

When I first read up on this case, it appeared almost certain to me that the family holding out and not selling their home to developers seemed like the obvious motive for murders. However, after listening to the "Faceless" podcast, I'm inclined to agree with Nic's theory this wasn't necessarily the case. But, it still sticks with me the family not selling the home is somehow connected to the murders.

It's so strange that the home was highly sought for development, yet still stands to this day. Is it common for crime scenes in Japan to be saved for so long? Is the adjoining home still standing as well? What about the other homes in the vicinity that also had not yet sold at the time of the murders. Were they quickly "willing" to sell after the murders? In the USA, the Moscow, Idaho crime scene was quickly demolished, despite protests it may hold evidence for the upcoming trial.

I know it's a reach, but it almost feels like a slap in the face to the developers plans that the home still stands. Are there potential leads that can come from the home still standing? Maybe TMPD suspects the desire to finally tear down the home is motivation for someone to come forward with information. The house still standing today in and of itself feels like a vital clue. There just seems to be an intent to keep the home up, other than the evidence it may contain. After all, there's already thousands of pieces of valuable evidence already collected.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

When I first read up on this case, it appeared almost certain to me that the family holding out and not selling their home to developers seemed like the obvious motive for murders. However, after listening to the "Faceless" podcast, I'm inclined to agree with Nic's theory this wasn't necessarily the case. But, it still sticks with me the family not selling the home is somehow connected to the murders.

It's so strange that the home was highly sought for development, yet still stands to this day. Is it common for crime scenes in Japan to be saved for so long? Is the adjoining home still standing as well? What about the other homes in the vicinity that also had not yet sold at the time of the murders. Were they quickly "willing" to sell after the murders? In the USA, the Moscow, Idaho crime scene was quickly demolished, despite protests it may hold evidence for the upcoming trial.

I know it's a reach, but it almost feels like a slap in the face to the developers plans that the home still stands. Are there potential leads that can come from the home still standing? Maybe TMPD suspects the desire to finally tear down the home is motivation for someone to come forward with information. The house still standing today in and of itself feels like a vital clue. There just seems to be an intent to keep the home up, other than the evidence it may contain. After all, there's already thousands of pieces of valuable evidence already collected.

Hi Steve, thanks for listening to the podcast

RE: the land grab motive theory. Put simply, there is very little for it and a mountain of reasons standing against it. First and foremost, the Miyazawas had already agreed to sell up. So that, right there, immediately cuts this theory down. But then let's consider the scenario. There were four houses (of the original 200) that were still occupied, including Ann and the family next door. So, why did only the Miyazawas die? Would the developer somehow hope that their sushi-knife assassin was going to take out everyone in the housing complex? It doesn't pass the smell test. Also, for some reason, people always refer to some nebulous developer -- it was the City of Tokyo that was buying the land back in order to expand the park. Not some cut-throat bubble economy outfit. Sure, they may have been third parties in between and the construction gig is notoriously fertile ground for mafia, but how would any of that connect to a killer as young as 15 (according to the TMPD, not me) murdering kids with a sushi knife? Lastly, the City now owns the house itself. Ann, I believe, inherited the property and then sold up. So, all of that to say, if the motive behind these murders was to get that land and the Miyazawas were standing in the way, would this be mission accomplished? It seems not, given the house is still standing 23 years later and, I would imagine, nobody involved in that expansion project is still around.

As for demolishing the house, the supposed reason is for safety. It's going to fall down sooner or later given how seismic Japan is. I suspect the secret reason is that it's a shameful reminder. I can't speak to crime scenes being preserved in this way. As per one of my recent posts, I know that one particular apartment where a man's wife and child were murdered is still kept by him, he pays the rent and so on, waiting for the day that DNA laws change. But no, I've never heard of a house being kept like this.

So, I would disagree about the significance of the house itself. The very premise requires a materially-driven motive. So, that is to say, money. And when you consider Yasuko was left *without a face*, when you consider Niina's front teeth were knocked out, when you consider the killer sliced open his own hand while stabbing Mikio in the head and yet, he did not flee, but simply switched to his left -- put all of that together and I think the driver is far more visceral than money. It's a total guess of course and while I know this case inside out, my guess is no better than anyone else's when you boil it down... But I see rage in these murders. Or hatred.

 

[Charlot123]

Hi Steve, thanks for listening to the podcast

RE: the land grab motive theory. Put simply, there is very little for it and a mountain of reasons standing against it. First and foremost, the Miyazawas had already agreed to sell up. So that, right there, immediately cuts this theory down. But then let's consider the scenario. There were four houses (of the original 200) that were still occupied, including Ann and the family next door. So, why did only the Miyazawas die? Would the developer somehow hope that their sushi-knife assassin was going to take out everyone in the housing complex? It doesn't pass the smell test. Also, for some reason, people always refer to some nebulous developer -- it was the City of Tokyo that was buying the land back in order to expand the park. Not some cut-throat bubble economy outfit. Sure, they may have been third parties in between and the construction gig is notoriously fertile ground for mafia, but how would any of that connect to a killer as young as 15 (according to the TMPD, not me) murdering kids with a sushi knife? Lastly, the City now owns the house itself. Ann, I believe, inherited the property and then sold up. So, all of that to say, if the motive behind these murders was to get that land and the Miyazawas were standing in the way, would this be mission accomplished? It seems not, given the house is still standing 23 years later and, I would imagine, nobody involved in that expansion project is still around.

As for demolishing the house, the supposed reason is for safety. It's going to fall down sooner or later given how seismic Japan is. I suspect the secret reason is that it's a shameful reminder. I can't speak to crime scenes being preserved in this way. As per one of my recent posts, I know that one particular apartment where a man's wife and child were murdered is still kept by him, he pays the rent and so on, waiting for the day that DNA laws change. But no, I've never heard of a house being kept like this.

So, I would disagree about the significance of the house itself. The very premise requires a materially-driven motive. So, that is to say, money. And when you consider Yasuko was left *without a face*, when you consider Niina's front teeth were knocked out, when you consider the killer sliced open his own hand while stabbing Mikio in the head and yet, he did not flee, but simply switched to his left -- put all of that together and I think the driver is far more visceral than money. It's a total guess of course and while I know this case inside out, my guess is no better than anyone else's when you boil it down... But I see rage in these murders. Or hatred.

Rage, hatred and perhaps, some mistaken identity, or projection?

 

[FacelessPodcast]

Rage, hatred and perhaps, some mistaken identity, or projection?

I would be inclined for the first two. My feeling is that he didn't know the family, at least very well, but he decided to take out on them whatever emotion he had within him. I have been assured that there was no sexual component to the case. I also believe the TMPD would have worked out a personal connection between him and the family had it been a close one. And yet the murders themselves 'feel' personal. So, I think the emotion inside the killer was raw and visceral, even if it wasn't the Miyazawas who necessarily provoked it.

My guess is that they were surrogates for his rage or hatred.

 

[fridaybaker]

I've sort of been out of commission and off the thread for a while lately, but wanted to let folks here know that I recently finished Nic's book: "Blue Light Yokohama". I highly recommend it for anyone interested in detective/crime books. I found it compelling on several levels, most of all for the sort of tight, complex (but not too convoluted) main plot, but also the many interesting characters and the backdrop of ever-fascinating Tokyo. Kudos to our resident author here. May he be as effective in solving our real-life murder as Inspector Iwata was at his.

 

[Charlot123]

I would be inclined for the first two. My feeling is that he didn't know the family, at least very well, but he decided to take out on them whatever emotion he had within him. I have been assured that there was no sexual component to the case. I also believe the TMPD would have worked out a personal connection between him and the family had it been a close one. And yet the murders themselves 'feel' personal. So, I think the emotion inside the killer was raw and visceral, even if it wasn't the Miyazawas who necessarily provoked it.

My guess is that they were surrogates for his rage or hatred.

This is why I wonder if he was a younger child. Perhaps having a smart older brother who the family was proud of? (Quietly “extinguishing” the youngest son so that he doesn’t watch what comes to follow looks merciful in comparison with the rest.)

 

[Incoherent]

Hi all. New member here. 15 year resident of Tokyo but recently moved close to the Chitose Karasuyama station which is about a 15 minute walk from the Kamisoshigaya Park where the house is, and the station the family shopped days before the murder.

I decided to walk and see the house for myself a few weeks ago to see how it looked in 2024. I arrived there around 17:15 just as dusk hit. I was surprised to see no security besides it being fenced off. There was no police officer stationed by the house either, although it’s possible it isn’t a 24 hour operation or more likely that they leave at the end of the work day.

I was able to go right up to the house to take some pictures which I’ll post here for the curious. They are not fantastic as it was already dark by the time I arrived, but I didn’t expect to be able to get up so close. You can see the back of the house is protected by a plastic wall but the front has hardly anything. I could have gone right to the front door if I pushed through the fence.

There were signs saying the house is alarmed and has CCTV so I didn’t want to try my luck any further and get in any trouble with the police. And to be honest, being so close to the house after reading and learning about the case for years and years had my heart pumping.

Anyway, the photos for the curious. I also hope no one thinks too badly of me for taking the photos of such a place.

 

[Frankie Hellis]

Hi all. New member here. 15 year resident of Tokyo but recently moved close to the Chitose Karasuyama station which is about a 15 minute walk from the Kamisoshigaya Park where the house is, and the station the family shopped days before the murder.

I decided to walk and see the house for myself a few weeks ago to see how it looked in 2024. I arrived there around 17:15 just as dusk hit. I was surprised to see no security besides it being fenced off. There was no police officer stationed by the house either, although it’s possible it isn’t a 24 hour operation or more likely that they leave at the end of the work day.

I was able to go right up to the house to take some pictures which I’ll post here for the curious. They are not fantastic as it was already dark by the time I arrived, but I didn’t expect to be able to get up so close. You can see the back of the house is protected by a plastic wall but the front has hardly anything. I could have gone right to the front door if I pushed through the fence.

There were signs saying the house is alarmed and has CCTV so I didn’t want to try my luck any further and get in any trouble with the police. And to be honest, being so close to the house after reading and learning about the case for years and years had my heart pumping.

Anyway, the photos for the curious. I also hope no one thinks too badly of me for taking the photos of such a place.

Wow thank you! It is so nice to see these photos. Thank you so much!