MN MN - Brandon Swanson, 19, Marshall, 14 May 2008

[Ciriii57]

great effort man thanks for laying it all out visually. a few jumbled thoughts of mine that ive read on this case before that sometimes get missed...he may have gone in the river but his scent was tracked out of the river as well...not only that but supposedly the scent ended at a gravel road...this detail can be difficult to find sometimes because it might be insignificant but the road or roads were resurfaced that very next day or day of cant remember. like re graded. last thing supposedly israel keyes a prolific serial killer was in the region at the time and had travelled between eastern north dakota and the twin cities ? i believe. i saw someone mention he was known to have used route 3 frequently. i feel that his involvement is such a longshot but with the vicap classification god only knows? im kind of inclined to think either he dealt with after being caught trespassing or perhaps come upon by someone on the roadway possibly hit by a vehicle? its hard to say though...i just personally dont think its as simple as, he fell in the river.

Hi, Thanks I'm glad it helped.
You just pointed out something I had completely overlooked! Thank you! Yes that road was graded I believe the morning right after he vanished! So that makes sense as to why his scent trail stopped. I'm not really sure what grading a gravel track would entail but could it ruin a scent trail do you think?

I had looked up Israel Keyes because quite honestly I'd never heard of him! Possible...but I just find it such a remote chance that anyone with nefarious intent was there...I mean hell even Brandon wasn't supposed to be there...he didn't even know he was there!
I do think the trespassing or coming across poachers is a possibility though. Also potentially there may have been meth labs in the area which could be highly dangerous. I think I'd read a meth lab was shut down in 2005 in this very area?

ViCAP does suggest a serial offender though yes. I had a quick look through the other similarly aged young men entered there and he was the only one for the attention of sex crimes analysis units. In fact I only found 2 others who were young boys who disappeared together decades ago (i didnt have a detaiked look so there may be others too. It does make me wonder what they think they know?

 

[mike2013]

Hi, Thanks I'm glad it helped.
You just pointed out something I had completely overlooked! Thank you! Yes that road was graded I believe the morning right after he vanished! So that makes sense as to why his scent trail stopped. I'm not really sure what grading a gravel track would entail but could it ruin a scent trail do you think?

I had looked up Israel Keyes because quite honestly I'd never heard of him! Possible...but I just find it such a remote chance that anyone with nefarious intent was there...I mean hell even Brandon wasn't supposed to be there...he didn't even know he was there!
I do think the trespassing or coming across poachers is a possibility though. Also potentially there may have been meth labs in the area which could be highly dangerous. I think I'd read a meth lab was shut down in 2005 in this very area?

ViCAP does suggest a serial offender though yes. I had a quick look through the other similarly aged young men entered there and he was the only one for the attention of sex crimes analysis units. In fact I only found 2 others who were young boys who disappeared together decades ago (i didnt have a detaiked look so there may be others too. It does make me wonder what they think they know?

Yeah Im unsure of the significance of the road being regraded is...its possible it could throw a scent trail off and possibly unknowingly erase potential evidence. Yeah i think the Israel Keys thing is an extremely low possibility but thought id mention anyway. the accidental death via a vehicle ? or stumbling upon someone/something seems slightly more likely...i wouldnt be all that surprised about someone being a bit trigger happy on a trespasser at such a late hour...some people who live out in the countryside are very wary of strangers. the Vicap classification is telling most cases i see on there they seem to suspect foul play of some sort...they have their suspicions of some sort..interesting on the sex crime classification for sure.

 

[Valiant]

Regrading a road is less invasive than plowing a field. The plow digs deep into the earth and turns it over. Grading a road just smooths out the surface. So if there was a scent, regrading would scatter and spread the scent.

 

[Ciriii57]

Regrading a road is less invasive than plowing a field. The plow digs deep into the earth and turns it over. Grading a road just smooths out the surface. So if there was a scent, regrading would scatter and spread the scent.

Thank you for explaining.
So do you think the scent would still be trackable?
In fact the reports are that the scent dog had reached the limit of its tracking abilities at that time and I assume there wasn't another to follow the scent across the road.

 

[Valiant]

Thank you for explaining.
So do you think the scent would still be trackable?
In fact the reports are that the scent dog had reached the limit of its tracking abilities at that time and I assume there wasn't another to follow the scent across the road.

I would have no idea as I know nothing about scent dogs. It is possible it would be too scattered to follow.

 

[Gophers_FTW]

Hi, Thanks I'm glad it helped.
You just pointed out something I had completely overlooked! Thank you! Yes that road was graded I believe the morning right after he vanished! So that makes sense as to why his scent trail stopped. I'm not really sure what grading a gravel track would entail but could it ruin a scent trail do you think?

I had looked up Israel Keyes because quite honestly I'd never heard of him! Possible...but I just find it such a remote chance that anyone with nefarious intent was there...I mean hell even Brandon wasn't supposed to be there...he didn't even know he was there!
I do think the trespassing or coming across poachers is a possibility though. Also potentially there may have been meth labs in the area which could be highly dangerous. I think I'd read a meth lab was shut down in 2005 in this very area?

ViCAP does suggest a serial offender though yes. I had a quick look through the other similarly aged young men entered there and he was the only one for the attention of sex crimes analysis units. In fact I only found 2 others who were young boys who disappeared together decades ago (i didnt have a detaiked look so there may be others too. It does make me wonder what they think they know?

My thoughts:

Serial killer - Extremely unlikely
Poacher(s) - Highly unlikely
Drug lab, etc. - Drug labs or illegal grow operations are not uncommon in rural Minnesota. There have been some found in that general area. They are sometimes found on rural farms or abandoned properties. Operators of such things can be very unfriendly to unexpected guests, to put it lightly. If there was foul play, this would be one of the most likely scenarios (IMO).
ViCAP - Unknown relevance, TBD

 

[Gophers_FTW]

I thought it might be interesting to see a comparison of where Brandon WAS versus where he THOUGHT he was. I angled the roads so they are showing from Brandon's perspective (facing south) and both images are using the same scale and it is quite revealing. The layout of the land is very similar right down to roads and rivers and the locations of the towns, I can now totally understand why he was so turned around.
The first image is where Brandon ACTUALLY WAS and I have highlighted his known route in Yellow. The second image is where he THOUGHT he was and based on the speculation of the Jeff Hasse where he thought he was headed. I have marked in yellow an approximation of the possible theorised route he thought he was that corresponds to the route he was actually on as shown in the first image. Based off my own idea.


View attachment 471564
View attachment 471567

I thik this makes it easy to see how he mistook Taunton for Marshall and Porter for Lynd. The roads throught the fields are all just the same square shape and even Highway 68 is in the same place as Highway 23 from his perspective. There is even a farmhouse at the same approximate location as the abandoned one he found. I suspect that when he entered that farm he expected it to be the one he knew around Lynd that would lead him down a track towards Lynd. Instead he found the foundations of an abandoned farm. This must have been confusing, but still I think he believed he was just outside Lynd. When he came across the Yellow Medicine River he probably thought this was the Redwood River which runs in the same general direction along the highway. By cutting cross country and following the course of the Redwood River he would have known he would have ended up in Lynd. Only he was following the wrong river and was still some distance away from Porter.
He was hopelessly lost and after losing his phone must have been even more so. He was supposedly following the lights of Porter, believing them to be Lynd....so I can't help but wonder why he seems to have inexplicably changed diretion to the North. I can only think that there was something that blocked the light source.

One other thought that just occurred to me. Brandon and his father's phonecall ended at 3.10am. It was still dark and moonless. I checked the records (link below) and on that day the sun rose at 5.54am. I think it's safe to say that whatever had befell Brandon had already happened by this point (within those 2 and three quarter hours) because presumably once the sun had risen he would have realised where he was and made his way to a highway or farmhouse.

ESRL Global Monitoring Laboratory - Global Radiation and Aerosols

The Global Monitoring Laboratory conducts research on greenhouse gas and carbon cycle feedbacks, changes in clouds, aerosols, and surface radiation, and recovery of stratospheric ozone.

gml.noaa.gov

Very interesting analysis. A few things I have trouble with:

Brandon mistaking Taunton for Marshall - This one is tough for me to understand. Marshall is almost 100 times larger in terms of population. It is a regional hub with box stores, traffic lights, a college, and even a regional airport (visible on your map). I can see mistaking Porter for Lynd though.

How Brandon could've possibly thought he was anywhere near Lynd - He grew up in this area, and would've at least been familiar with the main highways going out of Marshall, and general direction of neighboring towns. It's impossible to get from Canby to anywhere near Lynd without crossing Highway 19 at some point. And if he started his final route by going east out of Canby, which he presumably did, it is also impossible to get near Lynd without crossing Highway 68. If he crossed neither...it's just so puzzling that he wouldn't have realized that.

 

[Gophers_FTW]

I also thought it would be interesting and useful to show some google earth images of the main locations in Brandon's travels. I personally find visualisations very useful to get an idea of where things were happening. Obviously these are more modern images, but you still get an idea.

This is the minimum maintenance road (farm track) that Brandon drove down and got his car stuck while turning. The track is barely visisble today because it is so grown over.
View attachment 471580

He then walked south for half a mile down the Lyon-Lincoln County Road. Remember it is picth black.
View attachment 471589

At this intersection he decided to turn west into 390th Street. This made sense in his mind as he thought he was headed to Lynd. Frustratingly the Highway was just three quarters of a mile in a straight line south.
View attachment 471590

he walked 1 mile down 390th Street. The lights of Porter, which he thought was Lynd, would have been visible to his far right from his point of view which may explain why he changed course eventually heading North, since his last sighting indicated it was this way.
View attachment 471591


But I am not convinced he could see the lights from this point as they would have been blocked by the tree line you see in the below image (Blue pin is Brandon then trees between him and Porter). I think that he could see the light of Porter from his car, but once he started walking he lost them which is why his direction seems so off.
View attachment 471592

On reaching the end of the road Brandon turns North towards County Road 16 and presumably the direction he last saw the lights. Frustratingly at this point the Highway is 1,300 feet to his left....but he turns right! Walking along this road he passes over several brigdes, perhaps explaining why he hears water. One can be seen towards the top if the image.
View attachment 471593

After half a mile he turns into the driveway of an abandoned farm. He possibly thought this was a similarly located farm near Lynd that would lead him to the town.
View attachment 471595

On reaching the foundations of the abandoned farm Brandon was faced with field and woods and chose to cut across country, following the course of the Yellow Medicine River:
View attachment 471596

I am not sure at what point he entered the water and left it again but it seems he left the course of the river, followed this drainage ditch and joined another gravel road (160th Avenue) from where the scent dog was no longer able to follow as it had reached it's limit of trailing for that time.
View attachment 471599

From here it is unknown on the exact route he took. But cadaver dogs have consistently indicated in areas North-West of this point in the fields around the Mud Creek which suggests that he continued in a North-Westerly route and something happened to him in the below area:
View attachment 471605

I am certain that alot of these fields have already been cleared by SAR, but since we have never been told which ones we can't specifically rule any out. Hopefully by now most of the farmers have allowed their properties to be searched as well.

A few additional pictures from ground level, taken recently that I found on another site. The minimum maintenance road (now farm road) may have been in better shape years ago, but still...why go down it at all, instead of just staying on the main gravel road? I wonder if the street signs would've been there in 2008, though as you've said they may not have been much help.

 

[Ciriii57]

Very interesting analysis. A few things I have trouble with:

Brandon mistaking Taunton for Marshall - This one is tough for me to understand. Marshall is almost 100 times larger in terms of population. It is a regional hub with box stores, traffic lights, a college, and even a regional airport (visible on your map). I can see mistaking Porter for Lynd though.

How Brandon could've possibly thought he was anywhere near Lynd - He grew up in this area, and would've at least been familiar with the main highways going out of Marshall, and general direction of neighboring towns. It's impossible to get from Canby to anywhere near Lynd without crossing Highway 19 at some point. And if he started his final route by going east out of Canby, which he presumably did, it is also impossible to get near Lynd without crossing Highway 68. If he crossed neither...it's just so puzzling that he wouldn't have realized that.

I totally thought this at first too. Then when I was looking around on google earth I also got hopelessly lost and that was with an aerial view! I think the abundance of all those gravel tracks and farm roads all in the same grid pattern with no names/confusing numbers is a nightmare and I can see the confusion.
I do not know the area at all and so I don't know how obstructed by trees or small hills the lights might be but I suspect the lights of one town might appear very similar to another; especially at this time of day when really the only lights will be street lights.
Take into account that Brandon had absolutely terrible vision and had possibly been drinking both alcohol and taking drugs and you have a reciope for confusion.

I can't explain why he didn't realise he hadn't crossed the Highway. My only possible suggestion would be that when he left Canby he thought he was to the West of Highway 68 and headed south on those tracks, whe in fact he was actually East of the Highway?

I also think Brandon's own personality played a key role in this. Descriptions of Brandon by his sister suggest that he would refuse to accept he was wrong, even when he had been proven wrong. I think even if he had an inkling he had made a mistake he refused to accept it and admit it, even to himself. I think his own refusal to acceot his failings may have tragically cibtributed to his demise.

 

[Ciriii57]

A few additional pictures from ground level, taken recently that I found on another site. The minimum maintenance road (now farm road) may have been in better shape years ago, but still...why go down it at all, instead of just staying on the main gravel road? I wonder if the street signs would've been there in 2008, though as you've said they may not have been much help.

Yeah that road barely exists today, it is all grown over.
I don't think he intentionally chose to go down it as opposed to the gravel track; in his mind I think he was on a different road. I also highly doubt he was able to tell the difference between a gravel track and a minimum maintanance road with just his headlights. It would have been pitch black and his vision was very poor.

 

[cenazoic]

Gravel roads ‘feel’ different than minimal maintenance roads. IMO, it’s not necessary to see the gravel to know you’re on a gravel road. Distinctive sounds, too.

 

[Gophers_FTW]

Gravel roads ‘feel’ different than minimal maintenance roads. IMO, it’s not necessary to see the gravel to know you’re on a gravel road. Distinctive sounds, too.

Agreed. I grew up in rural MN a few hours north of Marshall. The last mile on the route to our house was on a county gravel road, similar to the roads Brandon would've been driving on. Our long driveway was basically a one-lane minimum maintenance road. They are very different, and a person would definitely be able to tell if they were on one vs. the other IMO.

 

[Ciriii57]

Agreed. I grew up in rural MN a few hours north of Marshall. The last mile on the route to our house was on a county gravel road, similar to the roads Brandon would've been driving on. Our long driveway was basically a one-lane minimum maintenance road. They are very different, and a person would definitely be able to tell if they were on one vs. the other IMO.

You'll have to explain this to me please? My brain might be slow so be gentle! I dont see what significance it makes if he could tell or not he was on a gravel road or not when hed taken a wrong turn? Remember he didn't intentionally drive down it, he knew he'd gone down the wrong road, hence his turn at the end. (Ive never 100% managed to understand how that was worked out, since he thught he was somewhere else, but thats what LE and SAR say based on how the car was found and where). There probably wasn't anywhere to turn around even if he did realise he wasn't on a gravel road. Hedge on one side, field of crops on the other. Once he was on it, he was on it until the end. Which is what happened. And then unfortunately he drove into a ditch.

But please point me right if I've made a mistake.

 

[Gophers_FTW]

You'll have to explain this to me please? My brain might be slow so be gentle! I dont see what significance it makes if he could tell or not he was on a gravel road or not when hed taken a wrong turn? Remember he didn't intentionally drive down it, he knew he'd gone down the wrong road, hence his turn at the end. (Ive never 100% managed to understand how that was worked out, since he thught he was somewhere else, but thats what LE and SAR say based on how the car was found and where). There probably wasn't anywhere to turn around even if he did realise he wasn't on a gravel road. Hedge on one side, field of crops on the other. Once he was on it, he was on it until the end. Which is what happened. And then unfortunately he drove into a ditch.

But please point me right if I've made a mistake.

Starting with definitions in Minnesota. A county gravel road is regularly maintained, and wide enough for vehicles to travel on in both directions. Minimum maintenance roads are not regularly maintained, and are often one-lane roads only wide enough for one vehicle. They can also be dead ends, or have other unmarked hazards. That is why, by law, they must be marked as such (example in attached picture).

"A road authority, other than the commissioner, may by resolution designate a road under its jurisdiction as a minimum-maintenance road if it determines that the road or road segment is used only occasionally or intermittently for passenger and commercial travel. The resolution must identify the beginning and end points of the road being designated. After adopting the resolution, the road authority must post signs on the road to notify the motoring public that it is a minimum-maintenance road and that the public travels on the road at its own risk. A road authority must notify the road authorities of adjoining jurisdictions of designations under this section."

Sec. 160.095 MN Statutes

If you are lost or uncertain of your location while driving late at night, turning down a minimum maintenance road is an absolutely terrible idea. Especially if it is one you are not familiar with and haven't traveled before.

Brandon had two choices at that fateful intersection:

1) Stay on the maintained two-lane county gravel road (110th Ave) as it turned southward, and continue on safely in the direction of the main highway

2) Turn right off of the maintained county gravel road, and then make an immediate left (westward) on to a one-lane minimum maintenance road (now only a farm road) at his "own risk"

He is believed to have gotten stuck while attempting to turn left (southward, toward the main highway) on to another county gravel road (Lyon Lincoln County Road), at the exit of the minimum maintenance road. He had to have intentionally chosen to go down that minimum maintenance road.

 

[Ciriii57]

Starting with definitions in Minnesota. A county gravel road is regularly maintained, and wide enough for vehicles to travel on in both directions. Minimum maintenance roads are not regularly maintained, and are often one-lane roads only wide enough for one vehicle. They can also be dead ends, or have other unmarked hazards. That is why, by law, they must be marked as such (example in attached picture).

"A road authority, other than the commissioner, may by resolution designate a road under its jurisdiction as a minimum-maintenance road if it determines that the road or road segment is used only occasionally or intermittently for passenger and commercial travel. The resolution must identify the beginning and end points of the road being designated. After adopting the resolution, the road authority must post signs on the road to notify the motoring public that it is a minimum-maintenance road and that the public travels on the road at its own risk. A road authority must notify the road authorities of adjoining jurisdictions of designations under this section."

Sec. 160.095 MN Statutes

If you are lost or uncertain of your location while driving late at night, turning down a minimum maintenance road is an absolutely terrible idea. Especially if it is one you are not familiar with and haven't traveled before.

Brandon had two choices at that fateful intersection:

1) Stay on the maintained two-lane county gravel road (110th Ave) as it turned southward, and continue on safely in the direction of the main highway

2) Turn right off of the maintained county gravel road, and then make an immediate left (westward) on to a one-lane minimum maintenance road (now only a farm road) at his "own risk"

He is believed to have gotten stuck while attempting to turn left (southward, toward the main highway) on to another county gravel road (Lyon Lincoln County Road), at the exit of the minimum maintenance road. He had to have intentionally chosen to go down that minimum maintenance road.

Thank you for your patience in explaining this! And thank you for the detailed explanation, that makes much more sense! I am glad to have input from someone who has driven on roads similar to these.
So, it was theorised that Brandon thought he was on another minumum maintenance road down by Lynd, so I suppose technically he could have very well driven down it on purpose, only realising it was the wrong road when he resched the end? But I think you have already said you find that difficult to believe? Do you have any theory as to why he ended up where he did and didn't realise?

I do have a question for you if you wouldn't mind, as someone who may have driven on similar roads. Putting yourself in Brandon's shoes-you are driving down these kinds of roads in the dead of night and you end up getting the car stuck. Do Brandon's actions make sense in that he left the vehicle? I could never understand why he left the car to wander around the countryside if I am honest. I get that he thought he was within walking distance of Lynd, but for a guy with terrible vision to start wandering around these mazelike lanes never made that much sense to me. Neither did the fact that once he didn't reach his intended target he didn't tuen back.
Also-would it be reasonable in this area to go and knock on a farmer's door to use the phone/ask for directions or is this a big no no?

I think if imagining ourselves in Brandon's shoes there's an important point to remember too. Although it's easy for us to look back and say he was lost, Brandon wasn't actually lost. In his own mind he thought he knew exactly where he was. Could that be an important factor in his decision making process? And also remember, he had terrible vision and depth perception and yet he still chose to go wandering around fields in the dark.

...and finally because I mentioned being in Brandon's shoes. His white sneakers. Although I can imagine maybe his clothes being torn up, deteriorating or what not, I kind of think the sneakers would be alot longer lasting-especially the soles. Somewhere out there there should be a cellphone, a pair of white sneakers and a chunky silver necklace. I am struggling to beleive that after all this time not one shred of his clothing or anything has been discovered. The only thing is his scent and, more recently, the smell of decomposition-what if it's not Brandon out there decomposing at all!

 

[Gophers_FTW]

Thank you for your patience in explaining this! And thank you for the detailed explanation, that makes much more sense! I am glad to have input from someone who has driven on roads similar to these.
So, it was theorised that Brandon thought he was on another minumum maintenance road down by Lynd, so I suppose technically he could have very well driven down it on purpose, only realising it was the wrong road when he resched the end? But I think you have already said you find that difficult to believe? Do you have any theory as to why he ended up where he did and didn't realise?

I do have a question for you if you wouldn't mind, as someone who may have driven on similar roads. Putting yourself in Brandon's shoes-you are driving down these kinds of roads in the dead of night and you end up getting the car stuck. Do Brandon's actions make sense in that he left the vehicle? I could never understand why he left the car to wander around the countryside if I am honest. I get that he thought he was within walking distance of Lynd, but for a guy with terrible vision to start wandering around these mazelike lanes never made that much sense to me. Neither did the fact that once he didn't reach his intended target he didn't tuen back.
Also-would it be reasonable in this area to go and knock on a farmer's door to use the phone/ask for directions or is this a big no no?

I think if imagining ourselves in Brandon's shoes there's an important point to remember too. Although it's easy for us to look back and say he was lost, Brandon wasn't actually lost. In his own mind he thought he knew exactly where he was. Could that be an important factor in his decision making process? And also remember, he had terrible vision and depth perception and yet he still chose to go wandering around fields in the dark.

...and finally because I mentioned being in Brandon's shoes. His white sneakers. Although I can imagine maybe his clothes being torn up, deteriorating or what not, I kind of think the sneakers would be alot longer lasting-especially the soles. Somewhere out there there should be a cellphone, a pair of white sneakers and a chunky silver necklace. I am struggling to beleive that after all this time not one shred of his clothing or anything has been discovered. The only thing is his scent and, more recently, the smell of decomposition-what if it's not Brandon out there decomposing at all!

Tough to say that any of his actions make sense once he turned on to that minimum maintenance road IMO. We do see a pattern of him heading generally west and turning away from the main highway whenever the choice is presented. Both in the car, and while walking.

His biggest errors:

-going down a minimum maintenance road alone late at night
-leaving his vehicle on foot once it was stuck
-choosing to go off-road once on foot

I guess it is possible he was trying to turn around and go back the way he came when he got stuck. I hadn't considered that.

Many people would be hesitant to approach an unfamiliar home or property late at night. Especially if they weren't in danger. Once he may have gotten wet or cold, then the chances of doing so became much greater IMO.