Welcome.
This is a very interesting group. Your request for direction and references, suggestions, etc., is hard to give. I used to data-dump on people. The information was good, but it may have been too much -- the consequence of enthusiasm for the Websleuths and true crime with like-minded people.
Exploring Crime Analysis: Readings on Essential Skills. (3rd edition) ISBN: 9781977937186
This is one book I just received. It's a thick book for a college course, but it might be useful for personal study. Otherwise, find credible posters who demonstrate diligent analytical modeling and work with them.
And, in my own work over time, I have been wrong before. No one has a perfect score.