NH NH - Maura Murray, 21, Haverhill, 9 Feb 2004 - #12

[Fireweed]

My contention is that if Maura was a no-show all week long, either Sara herself or the art gallery manager may want to get to the bottom of it and it would make sense for Sara to try and get ahold of Maura.

Yes but scoops, as far as I understand your theory, you seem to think that Maura was planning on killing herself Tuesday night (until plans changed after the crash). My point is that an adult can drop out of their life completely for two days without that being alarming enough to go looking for them.

Also, people who commit suicide do not plan it out like this. People who are on a mission to kill themselves do not give a darn about such small things; their minds are on something else.

The reason that I have always found your reasoning faulty is that there would not have been any repercussions to Maura if she were just going to kill herself! Why bother emailing anyone? She would have been dead by the time anyone even started to worry.

To me the emails point much more to Maura either intending on returning, or on her wanting at least week's head start.

 

[scoops]

Yes but scoops, as far as I understand your theory, you seem to think that Maura was planning on killing herself Tuesday night (until plans changed after the crash). My point is that an adult can drop out of their life completely for two days without that being alarming enough to go looking for them.

Also, people who commit suicide do not plan it out like this. People who are on a mission to kill themselves do not give a darn about such small things; their minds are on something else.

The reason that I have always found your reasoning faulty is that there would not have been any repercussions to Maura if she were just going to kill herself! Why bother emailing anyone? She would have been dead by the time anyone even started to worry.

To me the emails point much more to Maura either intending on returning, or on her wanting at least week's head start.

That is a possibility.

But I do know family was all over calling her places of work, just hours after they found out Maura's car was found in New Hampshire.

I don't know how the family would've reacted if Sara Alfieri as an example, called to inquire about Maura letting family know Maura wasn't showing up for work.

I don't think it would take long for family to even consider the white mountains though (if no one knew that Maura had left abruptly) because the white mountains were a favorite spot of hers.

I think mostly that Maura was concerned about people close to her finding out she was absent and wanting to get a hold of her.

I don't think Maura cared if a professor noticed she was absent or not.

Again that is my opinion


If Maura was facing disciplinary issues (which I think would've been addressed by the police and school faculty because it would point to a reason why Maura might have fled school) then why would she be emailing the faculty to excuse her absence.

Also, if she was planning on returning at all, then why pack up your dorm room? She wouldn't been a fugitive when she returned. She would've had ample time to pack up her dorm then.

I believe she packed up her dorm because she had absolutely no intentions of returning ever.

 

[Fireweed]

If Maura did not want people looking for her for two days, then the people she should have told a story to would have been her friends and family.

Okay, let's think about this for a minute. Maura was "missing" all of Monday. It was obviously not a big deal to her friends and family that they had not seen or heard from her for a day. This is my whole point: adults living away from home are not missed if they do not call or no one sees them for two or three days. It takes a while before that becomes worrisome.

I certainly agree that a packed up dorm room points to someone with no intentions of returning, but your leap from that to suicide has always been a big one to me. I definitely think suicide is a possibility here, but suicidal people are not concerned with missing class for two days, or people worrying about them or anything like that. They just take off and do their thing.

 

[Fireweed]

PS scoops, I think you ask some good questions regarding the logic of Maura emailing her profs, but I do not understand how you have been able to conclude that the only reasonable answer is that Maura committed suicide.

 

[scoops]

PS scoops, I think you ask some good questions regarding the logic of Maura emailing her profs, but I do not understand how you have been able to conclude that the only reasonable answer is that Maura committed suicide.

You are implying that this (Maura emailing her professors and leaving school) is how I came up with the suicide theory and that is not true at all.

I was in the camp of Maura just needing to get away for a break and when her car broke down in new Hampshire, she just freaked out and fled the scene on foot and tragically stumbled or got herself lost while then succumbing to the elements.

But a whole bunch of other stuff came into view, the more I researched the case.

Family spin and defensive answering (when it wasn't needed as far as I could tell) was a red flag.
Family (intentionally or not) leaving out important details when talking about the case with the meida was a red flag.
Maura bringing sentimental items (that IMO stroke up emotion) into the white mountains in a beat up car all alone at night time with booze was a red flag.


I mean lets just take that last point alone.

If you were to go and tell your closest loved one right now. Hey, I am going to be going away tomorrow. But don't worry about me, I am heading for the mountains all by myself in an unreliable car with booze ... I'll be fine.

I would think your loved one would be concerned.

Then you move onto other things like the packed up dorm with the personal note left on top that would have no interest to anyone other than Billy Rausch.

Maura (in my interpretation, I could be wrong but) was tying up loose ends before she left.

I think a person who was going to commit suicide would either A) just find the nearest closet and hang themselves or (B) they would spend time tying up loose ends before they took their life. Some people would even leave a note (and I actually think Maura had planned to do so).

But there are a lot of things (none of which is 100 percent fact and I have never said it was) that point to at least keeping the suicide theory open.

And I am not convinced that any of these other theories thrown out here hold any more weight than the suicide theory.

In fact, whether you believe Maura ran away to a new life, was abducted and killed, or that she was in some tandem plot with other people, those theories (at least how they appear to me) have been introduced with very little information to support them one way or the other.

It's like because Maura called this condo (that was more than one bedroom) that proves she was working in tandem with other people. I would at least expect there to be other things to come to that conclusion then just Maura's condo phone call. But if so, where are they?

 

[carpanthers]

If you were to go and tell your closest loved one right now. Hey, I am going to be going away tomorrow. But don't worry about me, I am heading for the mountains all by myself in an unreliable car with booze ... I'll be fine.

I would think your loved one would be concerned.?

Is it your contention that this is what Maura told her loved ones?

 

[Fireweed]

Scoops, I do agree with you that much of Maura's behavior and the behavior of the family could point to her being suicidal, but it could also point to the family covering up the fact that they helped Maura to get away, or that they now know where she is and are covering for her for some reason. Again, I have always kept the suicide theory open as has almost everyone else here. All we have ever asked of you is that you stop trying to shut down discussions of alternative theories and that you should at least concede that your conviction that Maura committed suicide based upon the evidence that you have is misplaced, and that, given the evidence, it is impossible for you to have the level of confidence that you have.

I do not think that the condo proves that Maura was driving in tandem with someone, but let's just put it this way: if I told you one fact about a case, and the only fact was that someone was looking for a two-bedroom condo, would you say it was just as likely that that person was traveling alone as they were traveling with other people? Of course you would answer that a two-bedroom condo points to multiple people needing a place to stay. Again, I am not saying it proves something, but it is certainly something to consider and build theories around. That is all people are doing here.

Your suicide theory has just as little evidence as any of the other theories. In fact, to a certain extent it has even less, because no body has ever been found, and under the theory you have presented, Maura's body would have to be somewhere within walking distance of the accident.

Again, I must reiterate that a desperate mind is not necessarily a suicidal mind.

 

[scoops]

Is it your contention that this is what Maura told her loved ones?

No, that was a hypothetical.

Maura did those things. (she drove an unreliable car into the white mountains at dark with sentimental items and booze).

I was saying if you or anyone else told someone you were going to do that ... they might be a tad concerned about you and your mental well-being.

 

[Ricochet]

I think what makes this case difficult is whatever theory is put out there an equally convincing argument can be made for a different theory. Also, Maura made a lot of illogical decisions which further complicates things. Fred in his statement to the police stated he came down over the weekend to look at cars with Maura, because hers was unreliable (yet she uses the unreliable car to leave UMass). He mentioned going to a dealership in Northampton, and I thought it was odd that no dealer ever came forward, and then in a previous post by Fireweed they expanded upon that by saying no one from the party ever came forward. It's very odd that no car dealer, mechanic, or anyone at this party can vouch for Maura's state of mind or just vouch for Maura being present. Also the fact that some of these people have no close ties to Maura would make it easier for them to come forward. They'd have nothing to lose since their not friends with her.

She gave notice to people at UMass and I don't think it matters whether it was professors or the nursing director. What's relevant is she emailed someone in authority. My understanding of the nursing program is that it had strict attendance guidelines, and a death in the family would be a valid reason for her to miss classes or clinicals and would support her intentions to return to UMass. However equally valid arguments could be made she was leaving to start a new life or going away to commit suicide and sending the email about a death in the family wouldn't raise suspicions about her absence. I find the idea of her leaving to start a new life a bit of a stretch.

I believe she was drinking the night she left. IF her intent was to just getaway for a few days, and then return to UMass, she'd have a motive to flee the scene. I suppose that motive would be applicable if she was going away to commit suicide or start a new life. She had a hearing on December 16, 2003 regarding the improper use of a credit card, she was found responsible, and if she went 3 months (March 16, 2004) trouble free the charges would be dismissed. IF she had stayed at the scene, and IF she had been drinking she'd have to deal with the consequences of a DUI and then deal with the consequences relating to the improper use of a credit card, and then be expelled from UMass. I believe she went in the forest and ultimately died from exposure. It's big, it's dark, and it'd be easy to become disoriented. They used dogs, but different breeds of dogs follow scents in different ways; some by air, and some by ground.

That's my theory, but if I wanted I could poke holes in it just like all the other theories out there.

 

[carpanthers]

You said before that you think that investigators agree with your evidence. What is it that you are using to arrive at this conclusion?

"Authorities are exploring four scenarios, all of which they say contain flaws. Least likely is that she committed suicide. She left no note. Her grades were excellent. Her medical records showed no issues, and her relationships appeared sound. One investigator characterized her ongoing e-mail exchange with her boyfriend, an Army lieutenant in Oklahoma, as "sappy."

Second unlikeliest is that, intoxicated, she ventured into the woods and was overcome by the elements. But dogs couldn't trace her scent, there were no footprints in the fresh snow, and helicopters equipped with heat-seeking devices were no help.

Third is that in the brief window of time, she was picked up by someone who abducted or killed her. But authorities believe the odds of a violent criminal coincidentally coming across her on the rural road are as remote as the location itself.

Fourth is that she was picked up by a passerby, taken to a bus station, and fled the area, possibly with little idea of the anguish she has left behind."

This is from a Globe article dated March 2, 2004.

I am not saying that a member of law enforcement has never said differently, but I am interested to know how you arrived at this conclusion.

The article can be found here:

http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2004/03/02/where_could_maura_be/

 

[scoops]

Scoops, I do agree with you that much of Maura's behavior and the behavior of the family could point to her being suicidal, but it could also point to the family covering up the fact that they helped Maura to get away, or that they now know where she is and are covering for her for some reason. Again, I have always kept the suicide theory open as has almost everyone else here. All we have ever asked of you is that you stop trying to shut down discussions of alternative theories and that you should at least concede that your conviction that Maura committed suicide based upon the evidence that you have is misplaced, and that, given the evidence, it is impossible for you to have the level of confidence that you have.

I do not think that the condo proves that Maura was driving in tandem with someone, but let's just put it this way: if I told you one fact about a case, and the only fact was that someone was looking for a two-bedroom condo, would you say it was just as likely that that person was traveling alone as they were traveling with other people? Of course you would answer that a two-bedroom condo points to multiple people needing a place to stay. Again, I am not saying it proves something, but it is certainly something to consider and build theories around. That is all people are doing here.

Your suicide theory has just as little evidence as any of the other theories. In fact, to a certain extent it has even less, because no body has ever been found, and under the theory you have presented, Maura's body would have to be somewhere within walking distance of the accident.

Again, I must reiterate that a desperate mind is not necessarily a suicidal mind.

FYI:

Maura went to clinicals (an hour and a half away with 6-8 people, they car-pooled). So that is a whole lot different than sitting in a lecture class.

But onto your point here.

I have never said other theories can't be explored or that it's all about the suicide.

To me the theories aren't even all that important.
I have my theory (Suicide), but I have never not enjoyed talking about other theories.

To me, it's about staying on track with the basic facts and working off of them.

The problem with some of these theories introduced is that they don't come from anything of substance with this case. They are people's opinions and maybe even imaginations that carry on and far away from what is known.

And that is OK I guess, but I have almost felt like it was my duty over the years to try and correct someone when they spout something that (has already been proven to not be true or was mis-interpretated).

Does that make sense.

I have never said it was my way or the highway.

I feel confident talking about any theory as well, not just suicide.

 

[scoops]

You said before that you think that investigators agree with your evidence. What is it that you are using to arrive at this conclusion?

"Authorities are exploring four scenarios, all of which they say contain flaws. Least likely is that she committed suicide. She left no note. Her grades were excellent. Her medical records showed no issues, and her relationships appeared sound. One investigator characterized her ongoing e-mail exchange with her boyfriend, an Army lieutenant in Oklahoma, as "sappy."

Second unlikeliest is that, intoxicated, she ventured into the woods and was overcome by the elements. But dogs couldn't trace her scent, there were no footprints in the fresh snow, and helicopters equipped with heat-seeking devices were no help.

Third is that in the brief window of time, she was picked up by someone who abducted or killed her. But authorities believe the odds of a violent criminal coincidentally coming across her on the rural road are as remote as the location itself.

Fourth is that she was picked up by a passerby, taken to a bus station, and fled the area, possibly with little idea of the anguish she has left behind."

This is from a Globe article dated March 2, 2004.

I am not saying that a member of law enforcement has never said differently, but I am interested to know how you arrived at this conclusion.

The article can be found here:

http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2004/03/02/where_could_maura_be/

No, you misunderstood.

I was talking specifically about what items Maura is believed to have taken from her car wreck. My research came to the same conclusion that the investigators did. It was 100 percent the same.

 

[carpanthers]

Here is what you said on 1/03 at 12:24 a.m.:

“Guys/gals.

A couple very big points.

While we have sat here over the years turning this case into the biggest perry mason episode ever with twists at every corner, the fact of the matter is police (from all indications) have never treated this case as anything more than an adult who chose to disappear on her own.

We can talk about inconsistent statements and the like, but the FACT is that in every interview I have ever seen dating back to 2004 to in the most recent year, Police have made the very same statement. "There is no evidence of foul play concerning Maura Murray."

Yes Police do hold back information, but if they had a serial killer on the loose ... Don't you honestly think they would have alerted the public by now to be cautious.

As far as police being "in" on knowing that Maura ran away to start a new life. that is also complete bunk. Police would not tell family where Maura was located currently, but they would let them know that they had located her and she wishes not to be contacted.

Police quit actively pursuing this case ... Oh, I don't know, one or two months after Maura went missing.

yes they are open to tips coming in through their tip-line and they would follow up on them because that is standard procedure.

But as far as them actively going out and chasing boogey-men or tracking down the elusive Maura, they gave up on that not too long after Maura went missing.

Most of what you have read about (concerning new leads and breakthrough discoveries) have panned out over the years to be a lot of nothing.

I don't like to go down the road of several theories (WITHOUT SOMETHING TO WORK WITH) because why add more to this story, when it has already become so complicated for really no good reason.

I entertain the vasi hit and run (that doesn't really even matchup with my suicide theory) because I think there is enough substance there to at least look at that theory harder.

But some of this other stuff. Show me something of substance and I will gladly get on board with trying to pursue the truth about it.”

 

[Fireweed]

And that is OK I guess, but I have almost felt like it was my duty over the years to try and correct someone when they spout something that (has already been proven to not be true or was mis-interpretated).

Well it wasn't, mainly because you have been wrong about some things, and also because you cannot possibly be sure that certain things that are given as facts in this case are actually facts. If Renner, a journalist, digs up things, then is that really different than the other journalists in this case gathering "facts"? Isn't that where you get your own information from? So if someone cites to the journalist Renner, they are wrong, but if you cite to a journalist from the Boston Globe, it is a fact of the case? That makes no sense, bro.

The reason I think you are too myopic and out of line in correcting people is that clearly the "facts" of this case have not led to a single, solitary clue. The "facts" we have from the "official story" are not helpful. They have done nothing to find Maura. So why not "play around" with some other kinds of theories here? What do we have to lose at this point?

If you are convinced that Maura committed suicide and that the people here are wrong, then why on earth do you even come here? It do not mean that sarcastically or in a mean way; I mean that seriously. What is the point of coming here?

 

[Fireweed]

I entertain the vasi hit and run (that doesn't really even matchup with my suicide theory) because I think there is enough substance there to at least look at that theory harder.

I still want to know what you know about the Vasi thing that the rest of us does not know. I am not being a bully or mean or hostile, or whatever else people here say when someone asks a hard question. I mean this very calmly and serious and totally earnestly. What is it that you know that has you so convinced that Maura hit Vasi? I would really love to know because I keep my mind very open about this case.

 

[scoops]

I still want to know what you know about the Vasi thing that the rest of us does not know. I am not being a bully or mean or hostile, or whatever else people here say when someone asks a hard question. I mean this very calmly and serious and totally earnestly. What is it that you know that has you so convinced that Maura hit Vasi? I would really love to know because I keep my mind very open about this case.

I will answer this.

But first, you have to understand something that I don't think you have been grasping, but I have tried to explain a million ways to sunday.

yes I have a theory. I believe Maura took her own life.

That theory is not that important. It is not something I have chosen to vigorously defend until the day I die.

I don't work that way. My process doesn't involve marrying a specific theory and then holding onto it.

I work from the basic facts forward. I don't like to stray too far away from those basic facts, but I am fully aware that just because someone says something, does not make it a basic fact. That is where research comes in and over the years, you can compare your research, notes, interviews and visibly find out where something went awry. some piece of information was taken as fact way back when and never corrected etc. A newspaper reporter described something in a different way than another reporter doing the same story and conflict developed even though both reporters were looking at the same piece of information (as another example).

Why I am on this board in particular (because its more serious than other boards IMO) and why I still maintain an interest in this case (even despite the suicide theory) is that because the case is UNSOLVED and I am interested in what happened. I don't think its case closed by any means, just because I have a theory.

Why I always seem to be associated with the suicide theory, is because everyone wants to work their hardest at trying to disprove it, so it keeps being brought up and we keep talking about it.

I notice with other theories, there is very little challenging. Why is that so?

So in this rambling, what I am saying is that I made it a mission early on (the first year when I was just learning about the case and recalling how frustrated I would get because the information was all over the place) to try and sort out this case down to basic facts and figure out why there was so much confusion and so many things stated as fact that were just simply not so.

It had nothing to do with theories.

I wanted a basic factually based story to work off of (I could've cared less which theory of the day got talked about) I just wanted to make sure that the case stayed on course with the basic facts. It is really just that simple.

What I have been confident about over the years, is that I have done enough research to understand what is really a fact, what has been introduced as a fact, but not proven to be so, and what has been introduced that has simply been false.

Am I right about everything concerning what is fact and what is not? Very likely not, but I am confident that I am very close and on the right path.

Just one more example:

Go back just a page or so and look at James responses to my suicide indicators and my responses to James. His responses are almost all opinion (which is fine, but you have to be very careful when you are spouting your opinion, especially when you do have people hanging over your every word when they read something you say.

He provides no proof, just straight opinion.

While I have suicide indicators (which by no means are evidence, just to me red flags that lean me to want to pursue a suicide theory) I didn't make those indicators up, those are all researched real bits of information about Maura's case. Now could I be interpretating them wrong, yes. But interpretating facts different from someone else is a whole lot different than just stating your opinion about an issue.

So onto vasi..

I have no clue honestly, if Maura was involved and I think I have stated that.

It doesn't fit my theory of suicide at all. In fact if she were involved, then I think she may have wanted to go to the white mountains to get rid of her car (evidence of a hit and run).

But because my process involves working through facts and eliminating theories that don't fit the facts, the vasi hit and run and Maura's involvement has not been DISPROVEN ENOUGH to my satisfaction to completely rule it out.

That is all I have ever been trying to say about the vasi hit and run

 

[KenShabby]

At the risk of being chastised, I don't think scoops has ever stated that he is convinced that Maura hit Vasi. My recent reading is that scoops has come around to realizing that it is at least an intriguing thing to consider, based on the timing and what we've been told about MM's behavior that evening. (Aside): Some seem to have dismissed the likelihood of her involvement based in part on the notion that she was assigned to the dorm duties that night, and that she would have needed a window of opportunity in excess of a standard break period (whatever that might have been; do we know?). However, from what we've gathered, MM seems to have bent some rules from time to time.

We're all here to turn over the few facts we have (along with the tons of speculation) and to try to puzzle things out. To see what might fit together. And to maybe guess at what those missing pieces might look like.

ADDED: my comments here were made at about the same time as scoops' immediately above.

 

[Fireweed]

At the risk of being chastised, I don't think scoops has ever stated that he is convinced that Maura hit Vasi. My recent reading is that scoops has come around to realizing that it is at least an intriguing thing to consider, based on the timing and what we've been told about MM's behavior that evening. (Aside): Some seem to have dismissed the likelihood of her involvement based in part on the notion that she was assigned to the dorm duties that night, and that she would have needed a window of opportunity in excess of a standard break period (whatever that might have been; do we know?). However, from what we've gathered, MM seems to have bent some rules from time to time.

We're all here to turn over the few facts we have (along with the tons of speculation) and to try to puzzle things out. To see what might fit together. And to maybe guess at what those missing pieces might look like.

ADDED: my comments here were made at about the same time as scoops' immediately above.

Okay but he has been very confident. It has only been the past day or two that he has started to back down. He always cites to his research and when I ask him what that research is, he will not discuss it in any detail.

 

[carpanthers]

No, that was a hypothetical.

Maura did those things. (she drove an unreliable car into the white mountains at dark with sentimental items and booze).

I was saying if you or anyone else told someone you were going to do that ... they might be a tad concerned about you and your mental well-being.

So then why isn't it normal for Fred's first reaction to be concern that she would do herself harm?

 

[carpanthers]

At the risk of being chastised, I don't think scoops has ever stated that he is convinced that Maura hit Vasi. My recent reading is that scoops has come around to realizing that it is at least an intriguing thing to consider, based on the timing and what we've been told about MM's behavior that evening. (Aside): Some seem to have dismissed the likelihood of her involvement based in part on the notion that she was assigned to the dorm duties that night, and that she would have needed a window of opportunity in excess of a standard break period (whatever that might have been; do we know?). However, from what we've gathered, MM seems to have bent some rules from time to time.

We're all here to turn over the few facts we have (along with the tons of speculation) and to try to puzzle things out. To see what might fit together. And to maybe guess at what those missing pieces might look like.

ADDED: my comments here were made at about the same time as scoops' immediately above.

My comments on Vasi are not that it is impossible. I think the Vasi theory and the suicide theory fit together just fine, although it has been represented that they do not, and I suspect that we will one day be told that they do.