Goat, I am so glad you brought this up. I wanted to but I am too confused by the LISK site. Really intriguing. First question I had was: Is this really Mari Gilbert? They play so many games at LISK, who knows? and Is she saying she talked to Shannan the day after she talked to Hackett? Is she saying Shannan was alive until May 3?
NY-LI 10 bodies found on Beach-Poss. SrlKlr-12/10-4 id'd; more found 3/11 #11
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Peter; Long Island is not at a seasonal island. ALC worked out of her home. She had more than enough local Long Island business to keep her busy. No need to travel all the way to NYC. I doubt she even had a valid credit card to rent a hotel room to work out of in the city. Long Island provided her a steady income year round. Unless you have proof that she worked out of NYC, why confuse the case any more by suggesting it.
To be honest with you, many of your assumptions about Long Island are way off.
Is this what we are left with when a case goes cold?
To be honest with you, many of your assumptions about Long Island are way off.
Is this what we are left with when a case goes cold?
Wish they would just pull the plug on that comedy show at that website. Nothing but a bunch of clowns. If that is SG's mom, I Kinda feel sorry that they lured her into their web of lies.
Odds are that it is not her. If so, then she better back up her statements with hard evidence.
Peter Brendt
New Member
Wait wait wait ... according to the press, Pak drove Shannan to LI and spent time playing online poker on the phone, which was allegedly confirmed by the police (as I understood, they could ping him). And a witness, the old man who's name I always forget, saw Shannan and a dark SUV with Asian looking driver. Or am I mixing things here?
Peter Brendt
New Member
Okay, lets see. Police followed the LI trail and it went cold. So you force everyone following any other idea to let this go cold as well. Sounds good, Seaslug.
And now we use a little bit logic: Brainard-Barnes, last trace in NY. Waterman lived only temporsary in Hauppauge to work season and local clients, but her "friend" Cruz, had a place in NY, not LI. Melissa Barthelmy, last seen in the Bronx ... which is NY too. So, here we are with the last one, Amber Lynn Costello. Now, we can assume, that all those brave husbands and middle class family dads are regularly rent-a-hooker and can get the money for it out of the household cash without their wives noticing. Feel free to do so. But as you said yourself, no seasonal renting in the area, which means not many men alone and in need except for the usual party animals. Manhattan on the other hand has business travelers and they are not all in the rent-a-$10,000 to a luxury five star hotel. So, first thing, I doubt your assumption, especially after it is now clear there is not much seasonal male supply, that she had a nice steady income from LI alone. And it was easier and probably in general also safer to work Manhattan hotels than LI outcalls to homes of men she didn't know. Please remember Schaller's testimony, that she normally didn't go to homes of men she didn't know, but knew that one and felt comfortable with him. So, if he didn't meet her the first time at his home and not at her home (because Schaller would have known him in that case at least from the sight), where did she meet him?
Of course, you can follow any other theory you favor, that was my suggestion a few posts ago. And if you feel, my ideas are way off, fine, bring anything different productive.
Peter Brendt
New Member
Now look at this
http://www.longislandpress.com/2011/03/05/feds-to-search-laptop-of-megan-waterman-pimp/
So, this proves, Megan Waterman had really a place in NY, in fact the place of her pimp in Brooklyn. The trips to LI were bimonthly, the rest of the time, they were in NY (well Cruz occasionally in jail). Seems, another one of my "assumptions" became a fact ...
http://www.longislandpress.com/2011/03/05/feds-to-search-laptop-of-megan-waterman-pimp/
So, this proves, Megan Waterman had really a place in NY, in fact the place of her pimp in Brooklyn. The trips to LI were bimonthly, the rest of the time, they were in NY (well Cruz occasionally in jail). Seems, another one of my "assumptions" became a fact ...
goathairjones
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Peter,
I agree with Seaslug here. There are 7.5 Million year-round residents on Long Island. So there is enough year-round business to keep her on Long Island and not need to go into NYC.
And I do believe that it was said that ALC mostly did in-calls to the house they were renting in West Babylon / North Babylon.
Prostitution is probably not a seasonal business on Long Island. It's year round and probably never slows down.
I agree with Seaslug here. There are 7.5 Million year-round residents on Long Island. So there is enough year-round business to keep her on Long Island and not need to go into NYC.
And I do believe that it was said that ALC mostly did in-calls to the house they were renting in West Babylon / North Babylon.
Prostitution is probably not a seasonal business on Long Island. It's year round and probably never slows down.
goathairjones
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Reanin,
I'm almost positive that it is Mari Gilbert. She talks about the LISK on her facebook page. She knows there are a bunch of crazies on there but she definitely reads it. And this is probably her attempt to squelch some bad information.
Regarding Shannan, she said that she was the last person to talk to Shannan on the phone the night of 4/30/10. And then the next call she received was on 5/1/10 from CPH's home phone, from a man stating he was CPH, and he said that he ran a halfway house and that Shannan was there but left with her driver that morning.
Peter Brendt
New Member
First, I have to ask a general question: After Le tried to dig up LI stone by stone and ended empty handed, are you ready and willing to think a little outside the box or is that just a general "no" to any idea leading outside of the area, that has already proven as not very "findy"?
If the answer is "no, it's not a general dismissal of anything outside the box", lets explain from where I come, just to make that point clear. Originally, I came out of historic profiling. Only much later I came to offender profiling. My main interest is behavior.
So, what general knowledge about behavior tells me is, that wives normally react a little touchy if the hubby goes regularly to prostitutes. Since most of those permanent 7.5 million residents of LI are married and have families or kids out of the house but still married, the big mass of those 7.5 million (of which not even half are male adults), have no chance to bring a prostitute home. Exceptions like Brewer are rather rare. Subtract all children and females of those 7.5 millions and you end up rather with 2.5 million males. What would your guess, how many of them are married and haven't the financial possibilities to pay prostitutes and hotel rooms on a regular base? Half a million? Maybe less? And how many of them would really do it? It's not that every man who can goes regularly to prostitutes. And of those, how many use Craigslist instead of the street corners and underground scene of NYC which is so nice far away from home and family? So my bet is, the numbers are a lot lower than you expect.
But here is the next part of the story:
Maureen Brainard-Barnes, last time heard of from Port Authority Bus terminal, NYC. As I looked up, this is a few blocks away from Hell's Kitchen and the Carousel, right? Her Hotel was at 46th Street, which is also in walking distance to Hell's kitchen and the underground parties of Manhattan.
Melissa Barthelmy, last time seen in the Bronx, NYC. This is about 45-60 minutes by subway to Hell's Kitchen, right?
Megan Waterman, disappeared from Hauppauge, true, but had at least half of her business obviously in NYC because she traveled according to her mother, for a year between LI and Brooklyn, where her pimps apartment was. And Brooklyn is also about 60 minutes to Hell's Kitchen.
That leaves us with Amber Lynn Costello. I'm still digging. But as you wrote, she would have needed an hour to the area, where the regular prostitution business, the underground parties and also some part of the street prostitutes are basically concentrated.
Then we have the phone calls from Melissa's phone. As far as I can find, there were six of them. The first two were from Massepequa (or how this is spelled), which is away from the islands at the interstate to NYC. No articles told about the numbers 3 and 4, but the last two calls were pinged near Madison Square Garden and Times Square. We can note, that this places the killer only some blocks away from the area where three out of four victims were busy. Additionally, we have to notice, that Megan Waterman offered BDSM (opposite to the other victims). Which means, she had most likely contacts to that scene as well and the underground parties are, you guess it, in Manhattan, mostly also Hell's Kitchen and direction Times Square if I understand the map right.
So we have out of four victims and one SK one victim definitively pinned to Manhattan and two more highly likely and the SK was also there, in only some blocks distance. Well, we can ignore it and say, Massepequa is LI and so it's all LI, but in fact, it's a lot farer away from the dump site at Gilgo Beach than the pinged phone calls From the places where MBB had her last phone talk, where MW lived when she wasn't in Hauppauge and where Melissa Barthelmy lived.
The next reason, why I follow a New York City connection is, that the dump site on Gilgo Beach is exactly that, a mere dump site. It obviously isn't the kill site. We have no ME reports and I doubt, they can't find some conclusive evidence after all that time, the bodies were exposed to the weather, so we can't say, whether he keeps them for some days, or kills them the same day. But he has to bring them somewhere and that is probably always the same place. So, most communities around Oak Beach consist of about thirty homes. Oak Beach is a little bigger? So can you tell me, how an SK would have there a kill place without dragging attention of nosy neighbors? To garnish this with numbers: Ted Bundy transported his victims and parts of them up to more than two-hundred miles from the kill place. Ridgeway drove the bodies out to the Greenriver valley, which gave him his media nickname Greenriver Killer. Rifkin dropped his victims on LI, because he didn't live there. Albright brought his victims out to a field, outside of the city, killed them there and dropped the bodies then near the places, where he had them picked up in the first place. SKs normally don't drop bodies right in their backyard unless they have reasons which are usually connected to their fantasies. They drop them where they fall if they are mobile (that's pretty common for trucker-SKs in the US and Europe) or they drive them away form their comfort zone to protect the comfort zone. So the Gilgo Beach dump site makes it highly unlikely, that we look for someone living permanently at LI. You can call this "assumption" or compare to other cases.
The next point, why NYC is interesting is, that also Terry got phone calls. He was Barthelmy's boyfriend or, more likely, her pimp. You can say, this doesn't mean anything because the killer can call from anywhere (even we know, the last two calls to Melissa's sister were from Manhattan). But it means something on the behavioral level. If an SK calls the little sister of a victim, I can maybe assume, he is a sadist who adds just additional mental torture to the family of the victim to complete the fantasy. But he also called the pimp. He had even memorized what he only could have learned from Melissa, the sex practices of Terry and Melissa. Now here is the question to the subject: Could he assume, he can mentally torture a pimp with telling about the sex, the pimp had with the victim? No, he can't. But then, what would be the reason to call in the first place? This looks personal and that means, he knew Terry and Melissa at least from sight. Which would place him either to the Bronx where they lived or to Manhattan, where she most likely worked half of the time.
Next hint pointing to NY: The timeline. It is highly unlikely that those four are his only victims. He would have had a constant cool down time of a little over a year with a break in 2008. Now we can speculate, that he was maybe in jail in 2008 for an unrelated crime. But that would be pure speculation and the math would speak against it. SKs have a kill frequency according to their fantasy and the personality disorders which drive this fantasy. There is the type with a long first cool down, which goes then over time exponentially down. Dahmer was one of those. Seven years between the first and the second murder, but in the end, he hunted weekly. Irregular times, growing longer, shorter, longer again, and shorter again. This is typically for travelers, mostly truckers. They kill along a certain route when they are there and they are there if they have a freight. But those times are in general diminishing and the killing area grows over time. And we have SKs with short constant rythms. This earthquake guy in California, I forgot his name, had a constant rythm of a few weeks. Now, what we have here looks like a long constant cool down period. Which is unlikely. So he kills probably also in other places. But then we have to ask, why is he killing in the time between June and September and drops those victims at LI? The answer is, he must be in some way seasonal resident. Resident of NYC or LI? We know, he is physically fit (he carried the bodies from a vehicle in the bushes at Gilgo Beach), we know, he is pretty hands-on (strangulation). We know, he wrapped his victims in burlap. So, does that look like a regular businessman? Or more like some kind of craftsman? There are a lot of construction businesses around in the area who work nationwide and most of them have NYC area codes. Small enterprises, sometimes only one person as it looks, who travel as subcontractors. Snd by what I could find out about that business, it appears as if a lot of them works in the NY area till the weather gets colder and then take contracts down South over the winter. Kind of constructing snowbirds. Which, maybe by accident, fits the time frame of the four murders, we know off. But as I said, a lot of those phone numbers lead to NYC, not to LI.
And, after this is anyway already much too long, here are the questions, I'm still chewing on:
- Amber Lynn Costello. This is just going over all the articles again, but she was within an hour driving time to Manhattan's underground and sex scene, so she didn't need a place in NYC. It would be however interesting to see, from where she used her cell phone in the months before she was snatched, but I can't find anything and I have no contact to the SCPD which would allow me such questions. I hoped honestly, I would find on a forum like this maybe someone who has an idea or possibility.
- I try to figure out, how sharp patrolled the area and especially the expressway near to the dump site is at night. Someone mentioned, the police is patrolling there, but not how often. To drop bodies in a patrolled area that looks remote indicates only a casual knowledge of the area. However, that no patrols saw anything means either, they don't drive around there too often or the drop was quick. Technically, the unsub has to drive a car that drags no attention if something body-sized wrapped in burlap lays around in or on it. If the drop was quick, it would mean, he would drive an SUV or better a pickup. Something, that allows a quick grab of the wrapped body. But to estimate this, it would be interesting to know how often does the police patrol there.
- The sparse details of the ME reports I could find, report nothing of broken bones except for signs of strangulation. That means, the bodies were transported either before rigor mortis set fully in or after it disappeared again. But since it would be alone thirty minutes from this Massepequa thing to the beach and we talk about warm summer nights, rigor mortis would latest start on the way. So either he had to keep the bodies somewhere till they were "movable" again, which would have cause some problems (smell for example) or he had a possibility to transport them stretched out. Which makes me think again SUV or pickup.
- And my next to last problem is really speculation. The body dump is unceremonious. There is no sign of staging, no sign of remorse, just drop. That appears as if the victims didn't mean anything to him after they were dead. But in one case, Melissa Barthelmy, we have those phone calls and I still think, especially the calls at Terry had a personal note. So here is a contradiction. Which COULD mean, he has a little problem with his self-esteem (that fits also the theory of a quick drop). What, if he felt as if he couldn't invest more time? The image of being caught with a dead body on the arms is probably a little scary for any SK. So this is more under the thought of lets get over with it and fast. Most SKs who drop bodies do it outside their comfort zone. And those who do, like Hanson for example, have different dropping patterns. This one put together his own little graveyard and this is in it's basics inconsistent with the unpersonalized way of just dropping them in the bushes. Again, my area is behavior. And this indicates, there is a good chance, he was already nervous on the way to drop a body. If there are some traffic cams, the red light kind, there would be, if I'm right, a good chance, that either an SUV or a pickup not from LI drove occasionally over a red light somewhere along the way onto the peninsula and down to Gilgo. But I have no idea where those cameras would be, whether they were there already when the bodies were dropped and who to ask at SCPD.
- and finally, my last problem is a little of a male problem. I have not much ideas about makeup and changing hair colors and such. To me, all four appear quite different. But to make sure, I would like to ask the women on this board to do a little creative beauty work. Can you imagine, you could, with usual makeup and hair dye and hair cuts, make them look alike or at least similar? This little game has a serious background. Narcissists/Sadists react in the choice of their victims often to things, that are rather hidden behind the obvious. Nose shapes, bone structure, a high forehead, things like that. I learned it the hard way with the Alcala case, that females are totally changeable with those tricks and as man you don't see behind it anymore. I'm pretty sure they are different, but I want to make sure, I'm right about this victimology.
So, now you can ignore this and agree to let the case go cold or getting to a little work. Not every lead leads to something, but in a situation in which the inthe box thinking ran out of any lead, it's maybe worth a try.
Hi Peter,
2 quick questions about your recent post...
first off, what is the direct connection to Hell's Kitchen? I mean, there are many nightclubs concentrated in the area but I would not exactly consider it to be an "underground sex scene" rampant with streetwalkers...maybe I'm wrong, but we used to frequent the area when I was in college and I didn't see anything out of the ordinary clubgoer routine...
in addition, you mention the pings to the massapequa tower...massapequa is probably like 15-20 minutes from Gilgo and very close to the Nassau dump site. its definitely not closer to NYC than to Gilgo. Also, I'm not sure how many towers there are on LI and what their radius of coverage is, and I think someone had discussed this in a previous post on this forum way back when, but its possible that the actual location of the cell phone was closer to Gilgo than the tower...that is, the cell was picking up the signal from the massapequa tower because it was the closest tower in range, but the cell was actually located in western suffolk somewhere closer to the GB dump site. purely speculation on my part. but I can definitely confirm that Massapequa is closer to Gilgo than it is to NYC...
2 quick questions about your recent post...
first off, what is the direct connection to Hell's Kitchen? I mean, there are many nightclubs concentrated in the area but I would not exactly consider it to be an "underground sex scene" rampant with streetwalkers...maybe I'm wrong, but we used to frequent the area when I was in college and I didn't see anything out of the ordinary clubgoer routine...
in addition, you mention the pings to the massapequa tower...massapequa is probably like 15-20 minutes from Gilgo and very close to the Nassau dump site. its definitely not closer to NYC than to Gilgo. Also, I'm not sure how many towers there are on LI and what their radius of coverage is, and I think someone had discussed this in a previous post on this forum way back when, but its possible that the actual location of the cell phone was closer to Gilgo than the tower...that is, the cell was picking up the signal from the massapequa tower because it was the closest tower in range, but the cell was actually located in western suffolk somewhere closer to the GB dump site. purely speculation on my part. but I can definitely confirm that Massapequa is closer to Gilgo than it is to NYC...
ElizaAvalon
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Peter -
My theory is the perp is someone from LI who lives inland now who has spent summer time fun in the general area and probably grew up on the south shore.
I think the perp knows the area. One cannot guess as to the desolateness of Ocean Parkway at night unless they have driven it. It's scary and dark. Anyone who goes to the beach in the summer drives over the Robert Moses Causeway and can see how deserted Ocean Parkway is right from the bridge. Most LI residents who normally travel to the beach all summer long and and who may hit Ocean Pkwy once a week then, never go near Ocean Pkwy in winter unless they live on it or they know a resident.
Also - there are 3 main beaches - Jones, Moses and Smith Point. People tend to go to the one closest to their home. So my guess is the perp either lives or grew up anywhere west of the Nassau border to about the Oakdale/Sayville/Ronkonkoma line. East of there would be the Smith Point crowd. People from the North Shore go to the ocean all the time so you can't rule them out. However, south of the expressway is more likely, IMO. Those north of the expressway are less likely to have intimate knowlege of Ocean Pkwy and woud be more inclined to choose a North shore location instead of Manorville as a 2nd dumping spot, IMO. And I'm more inclined to believe this person grew up south of the expressway and does not necessarily live there now. In fact, I would be inclined to believe he lives north of the expressway.
Seasonal rentals are really not the norm near Gilgo/Ocean Pkwy. If you want to rent a summer-only place you would most likely choose a house on Fire Island that requires a boat/ferry to get to.
And about Manorville - it's probably the furthest west "rural" area of LI. This is something you can't see from google maps/earth - it's just stuff you know on the ground. The image of Manorville to someone who lives further west is basically "the sticks".
And as for your question about burlap bags - it's what they deliver the corn in. There are local farm stands everywhere from the Queens border all the way to Montauk selling sweet LI corn all summer long.
My theory is the perp is someone from LI who lives inland now who has spent summer time fun in the general area and probably grew up on the south shore.
I think the perp knows the area. One cannot guess as to the desolateness of Ocean Parkway at night unless they have driven it. It's scary and dark. Anyone who goes to the beach in the summer drives over the Robert Moses Causeway and can see how deserted Ocean Parkway is right from the bridge. Most LI residents who normally travel to the beach all summer long and and who may hit Ocean Pkwy once a week then, never go near Ocean Pkwy in winter unless they live on it or they know a resident.
Also - there are 3 main beaches - Jones, Moses and Smith Point. People tend to go to the one closest to their home. So my guess is the perp either lives or grew up anywhere west of the Nassau border to about the Oakdale/Sayville/Ronkonkoma line. East of there would be the Smith Point crowd. People from the North Shore go to the ocean all the time so you can't rule them out. However, south of the expressway is more likely, IMO. Those north of the expressway are less likely to have intimate knowlege of Ocean Pkwy and woud be more inclined to choose a North shore location instead of Manorville as a 2nd dumping spot, IMO. And I'm more inclined to believe this person grew up south of the expressway and does not necessarily live there now. In fact, I would be inclined to believe he lives north of the expressway.
Seasonal rentals are really not the norm near Gilgo/Ocean Pkwy. If you want to rent a summer-only place you would most likely choose a house on Fire Island that requires a boat/ferry to get to.
And about Manorville - it's probably the furthest west "rural" area of LI. This is something you can't see from google maps/earth - it's just stuff you know on the ground. The image of Manorville to someone who lives further west is basically "the sticks".
And as for your question about burlap bags - it's what they deliver the corn in. There are local farm stands everywhere from the Queens border all the way to Montauk selling sweet LI corn all summer long.
Your assumptions that the Long Island male population cannot support the Long Island-based providers is still way off. Do your research before making these statements. All of the data is out there on the web for you to easily discover. Simply look at the ads on BP or on ErolsNy or any of the hundreds of provider sites, sort by Long Island, and you will see that there is a booming underground business here. And your assumption that the average "Jon" is married and can't sneak around or squeeze out the $200 from their household budget is completely off as well. The average Jon is more like JB; divorced or never married.
This business about Mari Gilbert claiming that CPH called her on 5/1/10 seems like a critical piece of information OR a red herring that should be disposed of. She (or someone claiming to be her) is emphatic that CPH (or someone claiming to be CPH ) and using his phone (as verified by Mari's caller id) had told her that he had arranged to put SG in a rehab facility but that she had left with her driver that morning. If this is true, it's a bombshell; CPH has some serious role in SG's disappearance and he is holding back critical information. If this is untrue, it is a pointless distraction that needs to be put to rest. CPH may be a meddler but he probably has nothing to offer the investigation.
If Mari Gilbert has the phone number from her caller id that shows what number the "mystery caller" called from, and if in fact, it was CPH's number then LE can simply obtain the phone records (it would have been a toll call) and settle the issue once and for all. If CPH did make the call, they would not necessarily release this information to the media but hey would be all over CPH. He would certainly be the prime suspect for SG and a strong POI for all of the other victims. Certainly his home and any businesses or property he owns would have been searched. Neighbors and acquaintances would have been interviewed and he would have retained a criminal lawyer (who would have told him not to talk to LE, the media or anyone else about the case). If the phone number is for someone other than CPH, they would definitely find out who it belonged to and proceed from there.
We have no information that any of this has happened, but who knows? It is not a crime to call the mother of someone who "just happened to go missing" the day before. CPH can't be prosecuted for that. He can only be prosecuted for a real crime that that phone call might lead to.
If Mari Gilbert has the phone number from her caller id that shows what number the "mystery caller" called from, and if in fact, it was CPH's number then LE can simply obtain the phone records (it would have been a toll call) and settle the issue once and for all. If CPH did make the call, they would not necessarily release this information to the media but hey would be all over CPH. He would certainly be the prime suspect for SG and a strong POI for all of the other victims. Certainly his home and any businesses or property he owns would have been searched. Neighbors and acquaintances would have been interviewed and he would have retained a criminal lawyer (who would have told him not to talk to LE, the media or anyone else about the case). If the phone number is for someone other than CPH, they would definitely find out who it belonged to and proceed from there.
We have no information that any of this has happened, but who knows? It is not a crime to call the mother of someone who "just happened to go missing" the day before. CPH can't be prosecuted for that. He can only be prosecuted for a real crime that that phone call might lead to.
Seriously. From everything we know about SG, she is a real handful who could easily kick CPH's *advertiser censored*. She is so seriously bipolar that she is on meds to control her anger/rages. I think the only reason why she ran off on foot screaming and crying is because she was so tough (and was too much for even two or three guys to keep under control).
I know this might sound highly impossible (but I hope for the sake of her family that it is), but I still think that there is a strong possiblity that SG is alive and well living somewhere in hiding. I sense her presence and it's so strong that she almost has to be alive. My biggest fear for her is not that they find her remains but that they find her alive but not well (living in a hostage/slave situation).
I know this might sound highly impossible (but I hope for the sake of her family that it is), but I still think that there is a strong possiblity that SG is alive and well living somewhere in hiding. I sense her presence and it's so strong that she almost has to be alive. My biggest fear for her is not that they find her remains but that they find her alive but not well (living in a hostage/slave situation).
truthspider
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I know we covered this in the beginning, but I think it's worth a revisit now that we all know so much more, and since there are many new members. When we initially covered the topic of this white truck parked on the side of Ocean Parkway I didn't realize two important things:
1) The truck was parked literally exactly at the location of Maureen Brainard Barnes (2007) or Melissa Barthelmy's (2009) remains. We didn't have all these convenient remains maps back then
2) Most importantly, I believe this picture was taken during the early part of 2010: January - April 1st. due to the complete lack of green vegetation.
* There is actually still some green foliage around here in November/December.
* the images on bing maps that you see when you select birds eye view are not taken from a satellite, but from low flying aircraft, also this image is copyrighted 2010.
* I think when we first covered this topic I and some others assumed the picture was taken during or after the investigation (post december 2010) I no longer believe this to be the case.
If this picture was indeed taken before December ~10th of 2010, then I think we need to consider the possibility, that the SK was hanging out next to his sanctuary. There aren't any trails or turn-arounds or other reasons why someone (surfer,fisherman,etc) should be parked at this location. To determine where this truck is parked, so you don't have to take my word for it, find it on bing maps (birds eye view), and notice that the truck is just a tad west of the middle mosquito canal that partitions the body of water running east/west. Then cross reference that with any and all maps of the locations of the remains.
I'm inclined to believe that the officer and his dog that found the first remains weren't really on a "training exercise" 5-6 miles away from oak beach and coincidentally happened upon the remains, but may have been acting on information given to them by someone questioned in the investigation. Somebody may have offered up something like, "yeah I've seen so and so parked down on ocean parkway just east of gilgo". SK's are known for revisiting the remains of their victims right?
1) The truck was parked literally exactly at the location of Maureen Brainard Barnes (2007) or Melissa Barthelmy's (2009) remains. We didn't have all these convenient remains maps back then
2) Most importantly, I believe this picture was taken during the early part of 2010: January - April 1st. due to the complete lack of green vegetation.
* There is actually still some green foliage around here in November/December.
* the images on bing maps that you see when you select birds eye view are not taken from a satellite, but from low flying aircraft, also this image is copyrighted 2010.
* I think when we first covered this topic I and some others assumed the picture was taken during or after the investigation (post december 2010) I no longer believe this to be the case.
If this picture was indeed taken before December ~10th of 2010, then I think we need to consider the possibility, that the SK was hanging out next to his sanctuary. There aren't any trails or turn-arounds or other reasons why someone (surfer,fisherman,etc) should be parked at this location. To determine where this truck is parked, so you don't have to take my word for it, find it on bing maps (birds eye view), and notice that the truck is just a tad west of the middle mosquito canal that partitions the body of water running east/west. Then cross reference that with any and all maps of the locations of the remains.
I'm inclined to believe that the officer and his dog that found the first remains weren't really on a "training exercise" 5-6 miles away from oak beach and coincidentally happened upon the remains, but may have been acting on information given to them by someone questioned in the investigation. Somebody may have offered up something like, "yeah I've seen so and so parked down on ocean parkway just east of gilgo". SK's are known for revisiting the remains of their victims right?
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Peter Brendt
New Member
The connections are (there are several):
- Megan Waterman
She offered BDSM/Domina services. A few years ago. the sex clubs were pretty much ground down by NYPD. Things like fellatio is considered a danger to public health and such. But especially, the BDSM clubs were the ones going underground as in becoming private (as in not public) clubs in which one could only come with invitation, thus taking the the legal leverage from the police. All I did was pretending to be a businessman from outside coming for New York and looking for some "amusement". Guess, where those "private" clubs are? A lot of other private specialty clubs as well, by the way.
- The 46th Street basically borders to the area. I called a little around (I know some businessmen and some other authors as well who did book research on the subject) and it seems, the hotels in the area (park authority/Times square till Hell's Kitchen) are frequently used by Craigslist Escorts who don't escort. Someone, I talked to, called that "the three star menu" obviously to difference it from the pricier and a lot more discrete "five star menu".
- Park Authority's Bus Terminal, Times Square, Madison Square Garden are not far from the underground scene in Hell's Kitchen and it appears (it would be good to interview some NYC cabbies) as if cab drivers also recommend the area to foreigners on discrete questions where to go cherche la femme.
So this all fits together. More interesting, but in connection to one of the unidentified other victims, there are also private gay clubs featuring males in women clothes. But I know no gays who would go there, so there it ends.
Maybe wrong worded: It is shorter from Times Square to Hell's Kitchen then from Massapequa to Gilgo Beach. Some for the bus terminal. It's shorter from the bus terminal to Hell's Kitchen than from Massapequa to Gilgo Beach. It's shorter from Madison Square Garden and Times Square to the 46th Street and Hell's Kitchen than from Massapequa to Gilgo Beach.
As I said, that was misunderstandingly worded from my side. I compared the distances between Times Square and 46th Street to the distance Massapequa to Gilgo. But you are right about cell towers in general. Only LI is one of the most populated areas in the world (as far as the mainland site is concerned). Each tower can hold only a certain number of calls at the same time, that is the reason why they build more towers in urban areas. It's not only a question of range. For Massapequa and also Manhattan, both populated areas with probably a lot of towers, the ping on a cell phone is likely much more accurate than for example a ping somewhere in a Midwestern prairie. In fact, the Massapequa pings were exact enough to pin two calls down to two different hotel buildings.
Peter Brendt
New Member
I agree, that the perp somehow knows the area. My question is, how good. If you are right, he would know it also at night because he grew up there? Would he know, the police patrols the Parkway at night?
You are right, someone just looking at Google maps wouldn't imagine this remoteness. How about an SK, who looks for a dumping ground? SKs with a little higher degrees of organization tend to study other serial killers, sometimes intensely. Nut usally, that leads to some glitches because you can't find out all details just with indirect research. A SK studying LISK1 aka Joe Rifkin, would know, there is enough remote space available but not, that police patrols there. But then, so would for example a construction worker who has seen the area only in daylight.
Under the theory, Manorville and LISK2 are the same person, that makes sense. Nice behavioral pattern. Since I can defend the ttheory they are not one and the same person by the different signatures, which obviously doesn't count as evidence, it's worth to follow your theory up, just to be on the safe side. Based on what you say, how would you profile the unsub in terms of age, education level, ethnicity and other details?
But as a pimp, I would set up my girl in a hotel and let the boat owners come to there because I wouldn't have a boat. And there are the occasional permanent residents looking for recreation as well. Which is, what Cruz did.
I live in the Midwest now and grew up in Germany, studying in the Blackforest and so o, so Manorville appeared somewhat remote to me, but not extraordinary. Maybe, I have still the wrong measure for those things. However, there seems to be some forest along Halsey Manor Rd?
I knew burlap bags only from other uses. This is a nice extension to the possibilities. Indirectly, it would also extend my suspect pool from construction workers also to farm workers, right?
Peter Brendt
New Member
Fine, lets do some math:
According to the 2010 census, just exemplary for Norfolk County
- 51.6% of the population are female (we can exclude them as Johns, can we?)
- 12.8% are male children and teenagers under 18 years (which makes them unlikey by age and financial means)
That leaves us with 100%-51.6%-12.8%=35.6%
5.5% of Norfolk's population lives under the poverty level
435,764 households are counted with average 3.05 persons living in them. The average household income is $40,515 before taxes.
Even more interesting, 33.5% of the population claimed to be householders, 21.2% claimed to be spouses to the householders and 32.6% are labeled children. The missing 12.7% are adult children and other relatives living in the househoulds. That says us, that a maximum 12.3% of the population is bachelors as in living alone in their houses. Projected up on 7.5 million total population of LI, that leaves us with about 933500 candidates with an average income of $40,000 per year before taxes. Those girls took $250/h. What do you think, how often those bachelors can afford this? And what income base, divided by the number of prostitutes would that establish per prostitute? Your idea sounds great, and if those four would be the only ones working LI, they would have a more sufficient income. But there are some thousand more and that makes the pieces of the cake small. As you stated yourself, there is a lifevy underground sex business with a lot of adding. Of course there is. The narrower a market the higher the advertisment activity because the fight for the share is harder.
Peter Brendt
New Member
Wow, we are really so different. I really rarely miss something in behavior, but hell, foliage? You see me utterly impressed, honestly. Now, in the light, what I "assume", a truck would make sense (I understand that as some kind of pickup, not a semi?). Nobody would care about anything wrapped laying on the bed of a truck. January is a little early for me, but beginning to middle April, the first construction snowbirds start to come back to the East Coast.
I'm too blind, I only see something white. So I take your word and call it teamwork.
They exercised in that areas several times over the years. Which was another detail obviously unknown to the unsub. But it wouldn't make a difference.
Some SKs do. If this one is really like a stalker variant, he would. Parking there in the knowledge the bodies are there would allow him to revisit and restrengthen the relation to his victims. That is more than trophy behavior, but it happens again and again in such cases. It explains also the building of an own grave yard or body collection in a relative narrow area.
ElizaAvalon
FBI Agent in the next life
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I actually know of someone who "squeezed out" $75,000 by forging his wife's name on a HELOC - for prostitution. Divorced now. Very sad.
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