PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #12

[SuperSmith]

Yet there is evidence supporting it. There is none for foul play.

So why do you then still give foul play a 40% chance?

 

[SuperSmith]

No, some of these people's views of RFG are shaped by this experience.

For example, Bryant ran against RFG, saying how "unseemly" it was for him to lobby to go full time.




Like asking for his salary to be nearly doubled?

Bryant actually questioned the "morality" of some of RFG's actions. http://www.collegian.psu.edu/archives/article_90281759-b91a-5f97-b446-4453359ce320.html

Or saying, ""I think they'll have to put in double doors to fit (Gricar's) ego."

http://www.collegian.psu.edu/archives/article_fb8e6ad1-a7cb-5cce-97b0-4180eec8ea8b.html

Now, since Bryant knew him, a poster makes the suggestion that we should listen to him. So, perhaps we should assume that RFG had questionable "morality" in his official conduct and a double door sized ego? :floorlaugh:

I hope it very comes to that, in spite of the suggestion.

You made my point for me. Bryant wasn't a fan of Gricar to be sure and I only said he "knew" Gricar. If anyone was going to say "Walkaway" it clearly would've been Bryant. Walkaway from your family and career paints a bad image of Ray Gricar. The reference to Bryant and his opinion was strictly for the disappearance! :floorlaugh:

 

[J. J. in Phila]

So why do you then still give foul play a 40% chance?

I have not given it 40%; I gave foul play 44% prior to the financial data coming out.

Now, the answer to your question, why is foul play so high, is here:

http://www.centredaily.com/2013/07/28/3709197/a-challenge.html

 

[J. J. in Phila]

You made my point for me. Bryant wasn't a fan of Gricar to be sure and I only said he "knew" Gricar. If anyone was going to say "Walkaway" it clearly would've been Bryant. Walkaway from your family and career paints a bad image of Ray Gricar. The reference to Bryant and his opinion was strictly for the disappearance! :floorlaugh:

Why would Bryant say that. There seems to be an assumption that Bryant would see something "wrong" in leaving voluntarily. I'm curious as to why any poster would regard that as a widespread thought.

Since the claim was that Bryan had more intimate knowledge of RFG to base his opinion, then these other opinions of RFG must be regarded as accurate. I doubt that Bryant has is an intimate knowledge of RFG.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Is anyone familiar with the three motels near the Allenwood Prison complex along Route 15 north of Lewisburg?

I would guess that they cater to visitors to the prison.

Visitation is Friday-Sunday 8:00 AM to 3:00 PM (with some exceptions). http://www.bop.gov/locations/institutions/alp/ALP_visit_hours.pdf

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Is anyone familiar with the three motels near the Allenwood Prison complex along Route 15 north of Lewisburg?

I would guess that they cater to visitors to the prison.

Visitation is Friday-Sunday 8:00 AM to 3:00 PM (with some exceptions). http://www.bop.gov/locations/institutions/alp/ALP_visit_hours.pdf

Its a long shot, but there are about 11 motels in "rural" areas within about 15 miles (as the crow flies) of the parking lot in Lewisburg.

 

[MissJ]

and I have seen no evidence of walkaway. No reasons, no notes, no credit card activity, no communication, no plans.

Thanks. JMO but I've (in the past) been wealthy and then not so and what I find is that people live up to their income. Just because they make a certain amount doesn't mean that they save a lot. A lot of people depend on their government(employee) pensions exclusively. If he didn't have savings how does that point to walkaway? All the more reason he would stay and collect his pension. Because he would need it. I don't see how he funded this walkaway. Secret bank account? I don't think so. I agree with you.:twocents::moo::drumroll::drumroll:

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Thanks. JMO but I've (in the past) been wealthy and then not so and what I find is that people live up to their income. Just because they make a certain amount doesn't mean that they save a lot. A lot of people depend on their government(employee) pensions exclusively. If he didn't have savings how does that point to walkaway? All the more reason he would stay and collect his pension. Because he would need it. I don't see how he funded this walkaway. Secret bank account? I don't think so. I agree with you.:twocents::moo::drumroll::drumroll:

There are potentially a number of reasons.

People do spend money, however we have these descriptions of RFG as "frugal."

We also don't have a lot of tangible property that RFG spent his money on since 2001. We have a car that was probably between $16 K and $23 K, a house that would probably below $53 K and a desktop computer (probably less than $2 K).

We do know that a guy grossing in excess of $115 K each year for 4 years, had less than $100 K in assets.

That also assumes that RFG was broke after his divorce, and there is no indication that he was.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

The reason that I am looking at motels is because of Robert Buehner's letter of 6/3/08 that was previously posted:

Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #12

He identifies the day that the Mystery Woman was seen as 4/16/05, Saturday. He said, specifically, "It is my understanding that there is a pretty clear description of the female seen in Ray's presence on Saturday, April 16, 2005."

The only press accounts put RFG with the Mystery Woman on Friday, 4/15/05. I'm not sure if he made a mistake or if there was an additional witness(es) on 4/16, including some that saw RFG with the Mystery Woman.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Zaccagni said something similar. This is from Renner's November 2005 article (reprinted at the link) with a quote from Zaccagni:

"We can definitely put him there on Saturday too. There's a museum right here, across from the park. I think it's called Cottingwood House. The employees watched Ray bring his car and park it two or three different times across the street. He came and left, came and left, came back. He got out of his car, sat on a bench. He was reading a newspaper or something, he just seems to have fallen off the earth."

http://z10.invisionfree.com/usedtobedoe/index.php?showtopic=2226

If it is a mistake DZ and BB are making a similar mistake, about 2 1/2 years apart.

 

[SeekingJana]

It's difficult to think of a hypothetical scenario where Mr. Gricar could be a victim of homicide with both the BPD and Bob B. stating they have info to collaborate that he was in Lewisburg on the 15th and 16th.

IMO, if they are correct, and since BPD is the official investigating body, I think it is wise to believe what they say as factual, then I think this is a clue towards walkaway.

This whole case is strange and confusing.... if someone wanted to leave, why wait a day and be seen in the town? Surely he knew that Patty would call BPD and report him missing on the night of the 15th. What assurance did he have that they wouldn't find him before he got out of Lewisburg?
And if he did walk away from his life, how did he get out of Lewisburg?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Snipped:

It's difficult to think of a hypothetical scenario where Mr. Gricar could be a victim of homicide with both the BPD and Bob B. stating they have info to collaborate that he was in Lewisburg on the 15th and 16th.

Well, a while back, I did talk to Renner, who wrote the article quoting DZ. He thought it was possible that DZ confused the dates. It is actually called the "Packwood House."

Bob B.'s statement on "Quarryville, Bucks County," was not accurate, and it possible that he was similarly confused here.

IMO, if they are correct, and since BPD is the official investigating body, I think it is wise to believe what they say as factual, then I think this is a clue towards walkaway.

If accurate, it would eliminate a number of murder scenarios. RFG obviously wasn't lured to Lewisburg and ambushed by some ex-Hells Angel, or anyone else. He wouldn't be spending the night if this was a case related clandestine meeting.

In terms of foul play, the only thing we're left with is that he met a woman, who was somehow involved in killing him.

This whole case is strange and confusing.... if someone wanted to leave, why wait a day and be seen in the town?

Making final arrangements, like picking up a car/RV? He might have been waiting for a bus.

Surely he knew that Patty would call BPD and report him missing on the night of the 15th. What assurance did he have that they wouldn't find him before he got out of Lewisburg?

Maybe not. There are several variables. First, he might have thought that PEF wouldn't call until Saturday AM. Second, he might have thought even when reported, the BPD might wait until 24-48 hours had elapsed. When the BPD actually got the call, they actually called Chief Dixon and asked what they should do.

One good thing PEF and the BPD did was get the ball rolling on the night of 4/15-4/16. In a walkaway case, RFG could have thought that no one would be looking for him until the afternoon of 4/17.

And if he did walk away from his life, how did he get out of Lewisburg?

And that is the key question.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I looked up the sale price of PEF's house a while back (I'd prefer not to post the address). It was $66 K in 2002.

It was the family home of PEF so buying it would be from her parent's heirs or her parent. If the former, we don't know if the $66 K was the total value or the amount of her share. If it is the first, the amount of the mortgage might be 2/3 of that.

Usually, a down payment is required, usually, but not always, it is 20% of the value. We don't know what was paid.

We don't know when RFG paid on the mortgage. PEF could have been paying on it for several years and have paid it down a bit (and probably did).

The "standard" Mini Cooper was $16.5 K. The Mini Cooper S, is about $19.5 K; I think it was this model. There are several packages that could add $3-4 K. There is also tax.

http://www.newcartestdrive.com/review-intro.cfm?Vehicle=2004_Mini_Cooper&ReviewID=4025

 

[J. J. in Phila]

RFG drove a Mitsubishi Spider convertible while married. I'd assume he kept it in the divorce. If sold in 2004, that might raised $3-8 K.

In a photo montagne used in both Disappeared and the recent NG show, there is a photo of him sitting in it. It was red, just like they Mini.

 

[SeekingJana]

http://www.centredaily.com/2014/02/10/4029051/state-police-to-take-over-investigation.html

It was announced today, around 1 hour ago, that the Pennsylvania State Police is taking Mr. Gricar's investigation over. The article above states that this was done at the request of the Bellefonte Police Department and the Task Force, specifically.

This is good news- very late in the case- but still, good news. :seeya:

Hoping they have a committed information department and that we will learn some new case info SOON.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Snipped



I believe that the Chief of Police is in a position to know, and that Rickard was properly waiting for the comment to come from the Chief, for a variety of reasons.

Some of you might have thought this comment was a bit cryptic. Now you know.

The supposed "confusion" over the Hells Angels was do to changes in the case assignment. That minor mystery has been solved.

Keep in mind I sometimes can't say everything I'd like, but I can guide people in the right direction.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

New blog up on it: http://www.centredaily.com/2014/02/11/4029637/movement-of-the-case.html

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Altoona Mirror story: http://www.altoonamirror.com/page/c...e-police-taking-over-Gricar-case.html?nav=742

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Patriot News story: http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/in...mystery_state_polic.html#incart_river_default

They noted that it was "in the works since November."

Rickard was not the lead detective from mid September, but that isn't from the article.

 

[Lord_Chatterly]

Just saw the news about case assignment to PSP, and of course "Sporadic" on Centre Daily Times was my first stop on the news. Glad this has come about, to rekindle things. Just hope there is some transparency. In any regard, best regards to all...hope there is resolution...after all this time. Good to be back.