I'm certainly not an expert on accident analysis, far from it. But I do understand the theory you're proposing. If Max lifted the scooter by the handle to carry it downstairs, it would certainly pivot wildly. If he lifted to shoulder height, and in such a confined area, it would have swung around and done quite a bit of damage to the post and to his shoulder and neck.
Having handled my kids' scooters when they were young, those things are heavier and more solid than you realize, esp. if they're a good quality brand. I've picked them up just a few inches off the ground and had it pivot around and crack me in the shin pretty good. I was always concerned with handling them in the garage for fear they would hit one of our cars and leave a nasty dent or scrape.
They pivot smoothly and quickly and if you try to halt them from going in one direction, they rotate just as quickly in the opposite direction. They're much more easily maneuvered if left on the ground and pushed along. So your scenario of the footbed swinging wildly to hit the newel post from both sides seems possible, IMO.
I also agree that the momentum of the swinging, then falling scooter could have pulled a child of MS's size over the stair railing if he held onto the handlebar. The railing is not very high at those top steps. I'm not sure, though if the scooter or Max hit the chandelier. It seems more likely it would have been the scooter, since it fell after he did. Your diagram of his back wound seems to fit the pattern.
In my non-expert opinion you may be right. I hope some day his fall is more thoroughly analyzed and reconstructed. Though it won't bring him back, it will hopefully bring an end to the accusations and anger.