FL FL - Austin Stephanos & Perry Cohen, both 14, Jupiter, 24 July 2015 - #1

[whulfc86]

I think the search will be called off soon, I read an article a few days ago that said what they take into account when searching. What they could have with them, how long they could survive. Right now we are at the point when the Coast guard has said no one could possibly survive this long hanging onto anything floating in the ocean for this long.

 

[KristiA]

I have to wonder why these boys were going out into the water when many boats were coming into shore.

Why do a lot of people think these boys are still alive?

Do those boys have better skills/resources than the sailors on the USS Indianapolis had?

Is the Pacific Ocean more dangerous than the Atlantic Ocean?

Please, school me.

[video=youtube;u9S41Kplsbs]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9S41Kplsbs[/video]


http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/the-worst-shark-attack-in-history-25715092/?no-ist

I can't really answer your questions, but that is the best scene from Jaws, IMO.

I can't speak for anyone except myself, but I am losing hope they will find them alive, if at all. [emoji29]


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[WhiskeyBent]

I don't think it was meant as a "rich vs poor" thing; just that they can afford things like a $400 EPIRB; but didn't have one in the boat; but they had a $399 cooler.

Obviously not anyone's place to judge; but it's a question a lot of local people have asked behind closed doors. Rich vs poor or privileged vs non-privileged isn't the issue; its priorities I guess you could say. I'd compare it to selling your car to make the car payment...

Sorry if I'm not making sense, I'm fried right now.


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[whulfc86]

I don't think it was meant as a "rich vs poor" thing; just that they can afford things like a $400 EPIRB; but didn't have one in the boat; but they had a $399 cooler.

Obviously not anyone's place to judge; but it's a question a lot of local people have asked behind closed doors.


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My thoughts exactly if your 14 year old kids own their own boat and have a $400 Yeti cooler they could have afforded the other basic safety needs for a boat. They obviously live in a privileged neighborhood if Joe Namath is your neighbor and immediately offers 100K for any information.

 

[WhiskeyBent]

All I can hope for is that lots of boats in Jupiter (or anywhere for that matter) are better equipped as a result of all this.

It's a sad reminder that even though you may have grown up on the water, the water doesn't care.


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[tiffay01]

All I can hope for is that lots of boats in Jupiter (or anywhere for that matter) are better equipped as a result of all this.

It's a sad reminder that even though you may have grown up on the water, the water doesn't care.


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I agree with you completely! The water is unforgiving without a doubt. I do hope that anyone with a boat makes sure it has every safety and location devices on them. Especially if their children are allowed to operate the boat.

 

[WhiskeyBent]

My thoughts exactly if your 14 year old kids own their own boat and have a $400 Yeti cooler they could have afforded the other basic safety needs for a boat. They obviously live in a privileged neighborhood if Joe Namath is your neighbor and immediately offers 100K for any information.

Even still, that's half of Jupiter. Lots of money and lots of "Celebrities"- Alan Jackson, Celine Dion, Tiger Woods, Burt Reynolds, Ernie Els, Greg Norman, Joe Namath etc etc etc...

It's not about the money though. I keep seeing the "it's the Jupiter lifestyle" excuse. It's not; it's complacency. It's "that happens to other people, not me". It's "I've been out here a million times and nothing has ever happened". It's "I'm a mighty seafarer and I don't need no stinkin life jacket!"

I don't know how else to explain it, but I can tell you I have personally never seen an adult/teenager on a boat in Jupiter (in shore or off shore) wearing a life jacket.


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[Unsolved]

Oh no. Local news just mentioned that the Coast Guard is also searching for a who is missing from Normandy Beach (about 45 min drive north of Jupiter). He was last seen the same day the boys went missing:

U.S. Coast Guard officials continued searching Thursday for a Stuart last seen July 24.

They have covered more than 12,000 square miles between Daytona Beach and Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, since William Morlock, 58, was reported missing, said Coast Guard Petty Officer 2nd Class Anthony Soto.

http://www.tcpalm.com/news/local-news/stuart/missing--search-covered-over-12000-miles_22241472

I've never seen a wearing a lifevest

 

[WhiskeyBent]

Yeah, sadly his story was immediately eclipsed by Austin and Perry. I was hoping that the search for them would find him, but it's not looking that way either. They've searched less broad area specifically for him because he was close to shore. His paddleboard was found, but I don't remember exactly when.


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[Elainera]

Without a vest? Not very good. With a vest, slightly higher perhaps- depending on how quickly you get away from the boat (which could easily hit you in the head or any other number of what ifs)

I'm not 100% sure on how long the storm lasted, but in the summer they roll in fast, and they roll out fast. I'd venture to guess maybe an hour at the most, but it was intense.


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Thank you, your posts are very informative!

One more question, if they survived the initial storm would they have lost orientation when going over board and during the storm and later have no idea in which direction to swim? Would they know how to read the night sky in terms of direction? Or wouldn't it have mattered because the current is too strong anyway to try and swim in the direction of land?

I hope these are not too dumb questions! I'm just wondering, if they survived the loss of the boat and the storm, what would have likely been their plan at that point?

 

[ATasteOfHoney]

When a boat capsizes in these kind of waves, what are the chances to survive this with a life vest, and without a life vest?

If they didn't have a vest on would they have drowned immediately after going overboard? Or can you stay on top of it?

How long did this storm on Friday last? Was this an hour, or hours?

The storm rolled in quickly & furiously at 2pm & high tide was at 3pm.
If I recall, the storm lasted a while.....very windy too.
It was like a mini-hurricane but fast & furious. Then done.

 

[mrsu]

Just for reference- I don't know exactly how far offshore this was, but this is between 1 and 2pm on Friday, offshore Jupiter. Taken by a friend from a 30 foot twin-engine boat.

If they were taking seas like this in a single-engine open transom 19-ft... I really don't even have to say it.

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The ocean is terrifying to me. You'll never ever find me out there. I'll stay on my lakes.

 

[Hiandmighty]

You dont swim unless you are like a mile from shore. Even that would be too taxing. You try to find something to hold on to or even better sit on and get out of the water and wait to be rescued.

 

[Elainera]

Even still, that's half of Jupiter. Lots of money and lots of "Celebrities"- Alan Jackson, Celine Dion, Tiger Woods, Burt Reynolds, Ernie Els, Greg Norman, Joe Namath etc etc etc...

It's not about the money though. I keep seeing the "it's the Jupiter lifestyle" excuse. It's not; it's complacency. It's "that happens to other people, not me". It's "I've been out here a million times and nothing has ever happened". It's "I'm a mighty seafarer and I don't need no stinkin life jacket!"

I don't know how else to explain it, but I can tell you I have personally never seen an adult/teenager on a boat in Jupiter (in shore or off shore) wearing a life jacket.


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bbm

So if we believe that it is very likely that both of them did not wear a life vest it would be almost impossible that they even survived beyond Friday afternoon.

 

[mrsu]

I hope more than anything they are found but even with life jackets, I am just not sure. We have vacationed on Lake Michigan before and at times the waves were huge - looked like the ocean. One of my kids had a life jacket on and was constantly tossed each time a wave came. Sometimes the wave going over her head. This was a day when the weather was sunny, no wind, and just big waves. I cannot not imagine the huge ocean waves and 40mph winds. Just thinking about it makes me ill. [emoji25]

 

[allmybecsloveme]

Not only would I be afraid of sharks if they HAD survived the storm, but this was one of the "shark attack years". Which makes me even more worried. People keep saying "oh they're probably tied to the cooler, so just look for the cooler". Sharks are in major hunting mode this season.

I'm also getting super annoyed seeing people every few hours say things like "why haven't they found them yet ugh so stupid come onnn". Like really have you never seen the ocean before? It's kind of...big.

 

[mrsu]

bbm

So if we believe that it is very likely that both of them did not wear a life vest it would be almost impossible that they even survived beyond Friday afternoon.

On both of their Instagram accounts there is not one image of them wearing a life jacket out on a boat. [emoji17][emoji53]

 

[WhiskeyBent]

Thank you, your posts are very informative!

One more question, if they survived the initial storm would they have lost orientation when going over board and during the storm and later have no idea in which direction to swim? Would they know how to read the night sky in terms of direction? Or wouldn't it have mattered because the current is too strong anyway to try and swim in the direction of land?

I hope these are not too dumb questions! I'm just wondering, if they survived the loss of the boat and the storm, what would have likely been their plan at that point?

There are so many variables that I can't really answer, but they could easily have become disoriented when the boat dumped. Imagine doing a somersault into the pool... Keep your eyes closed and tell me which way is up? Unless they could see land without binoculars, they'd have to wait to see which direction the sun moved in. The night sky, I'm not sure if they had that knowledge or not. The current is also dependent on where they were exactly, how far out, in the Gulf Stream (east or west, etc)... Too many variables


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[mommylicious]

bbm

So if we believe that it is very likely that both of them did not wear a life vest it would be almost impossible that they even survived beyond Friday afternoon.

Unfortunately, that's what I'm thinking. I don't know how much time they had to "prep" before the boat capsized. I keep hearing about how the cooler floats and they could make a raft with the life vests... But that's all assuming they were able to grab any of that once they went in - hopefully they at least got life vests on. They didn't capsize in calm waters.

I feel for their families. They've got to be going through so many "what ifs" right now?

 

[WhiskeyBent]

bbm

So if we believe that it is very likely that both of them did not wear a life vest it would be almost impossible that they even survived beyond Friday afternoon.

They could have possibly put them on if they noticed it was getting hairy and put them on real quick, no way to know.


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