KaaBoom
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BBM
I'm not sure they're equally possible either, but here is my take on your reasons.
1. I wondered in my previous post if there would be repercussions if family and friends pursued the matter after the embassy had handled things. So their silence could mean she has returned to the China she scorned. But given her criticism of China, silence could also mean they need to be silent for their own protection.
2. A mental health crisis doesn't always result in hospitalization even in the U.S. Bodies can take time to be discovered if there is suicide or other cause of death during an episode (from exposure, snake bite, fall, etc). I know of several cases that took months, and I know of one that was never are found despite the vehicle being found and indications that there was suicide. So this scenario doesn't necessarily require records or a death certificate to be possible.
3. Same as #2. Victims of foul play are sometimes not found for years or ever (see Stephanie Warner's case in my signature). I'm not sure why Jenny's parents were told she had been seen alive if she wasn't, unless it was a case of mistaken identity and her body hadn't been found, so they assumed it was Jenny. Or it was a flat-out lie to pacify them and not upset trade relations between China and Mexico (my theory).
4. I'll add the possibility of a tragic accident/incident to round out the possibilities. Getting lost, falling, snake bite, fatal illness (she had visited a hospital earlier), dehydration etc. Again, bodies can take years to find, if ever.
Given what JR has posted, if accurate, and keeping it simple, I think foul play is 90-95% likely. I divide her taking off (to China or elsewhere), being sex trafficked, having an accident and committing suicide into the remaining percentage, not necessarily evenly.
Needless to say, my hope is that she took off and is still alive and well.
2, 3, or 4, her body has got to be some place. Mexico does investigate deaths. As for #1 Her criticism of China, would have nothing to do with her friends suddenly deciding to be silent. All these people just suddenly were intimidated into silence? By who?