Hurricane Irma

[Henry2326]

Noon version of GFS (American)....although intensity forecast are not very good, they have it at 885, Wilma was at 882 and 185 mph winds. Patricia was at 879 and 215 mph winds.

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[CARIIS]

Sadly we will have another named storm soon.

"Jose" behind her has a 60% chance, over next 5 days of developing

They used to be tracked by lat/long!

Hurricane Katrina in 2005: $16.3 billion
Superstorm Sandy in 2012: $8.3 billion
Hurricane Ike in 2008: $2.7 billion
Hurricane Ivan in 2004: $1.6 billion
Hurricane Irene in 2011: $1.3 billion
Source: Federal Emergency Management Agency

http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/22/weather/weather-naming-storms/index.html

 

[Henry2326]

Noon version, Canadian has a much weaker storm, 967, and running up the coast on land.

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[CARIIS]

I'm supposed to go for the first vacation in almost 5 years...to the DR. Leaving this Friday...anyone have thoughts on if I should be canceling the trip? Irma whyyyyyyyyy


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Goodness yes--cancel now , ahead of time so you can get your money back -- there was a family emergency remember

I would not get into the hurricane - who knows the fine print may say all kinds of stupid stuff
like we will refund your money related to a hurricane only if it hits your plane in flight

or the hotel fine print might read no refunds will be issued if the basic frame of the structure remains.

Lack of food , power, and water do not obligate a refund

Demolished runways do not obligate us to refund your fare.

We will not pay for canoes as a mode of transportation.

We are under no obligation to get you and your loved ones out of harms way. (Exception: Storm systems with in excess of 212 mph will be reviewed)




bla bla
moo

 

[Dwbsn]

and that is so bad cause she can scoot up all the while over all this warm water drinking its fuel

I have had stupid dreams of giant icebergs being dragged to right in front of a storm hopefully weakening them !!

Wherever she ends up it would be far better if she just slams into somewhere than cruising up the east coast.

She is gonna be a storm surge, wind, power loss monster.

Dear Cariis,
May all your dreams come true!

 

[CARIIS]

Ocean temps

Look at in front of MIA high octane.

https://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_data/?product=sst&region=floridacoast&nothumbs=0

 

[CARIIS]

Dear Cariis,
May all your dreams come true!

wouldnt that be cool

In like the 50's they tried seeding the clouds for that purpose -- it did not help but hey they get their energy from the ocean so my idea is better ha!

80 and above .............

Henry go nuts with me -- do you think that would help!!!1

 

[CARIIS]

Here you can see how much Harvey cooled off the Gulf over time

if were lucky Jose might get behind Irma and get into colder water-- but there is much ocean to cross

https://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_data/?product=sst_comp&region=gulfmexico&nothumbs=0

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

I'm supposed to go for the first vacation in almost 5 years...to the DR. Leaving this Friday...anyone have thoughts on if I should be canceling the trip? Irma whyyyyyyyyy

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What are your options for canceling the trip? If you've prepaid for your hotel or resort stay, are you entitled to a refund? Is there a cancellation charge? If you purchased travel insurance, you might have more options than if your trip is not insured.

How about airline tickets? Were they included with your hotel/resort package? If not, airline tickets are rarely refundable without travel insurance.

I think you'll need to weigh the possible financial loss if you cancel your trip with the possibility that the storm won't impact your destination.

 

[CARIIS]

HIghlights of what is happening now

eye is not as organized --intensity will alter a bit

sophisticated aircraft in route -- will have intensity numbers later today

There is a high pressure system kinda "above" her, which is keeping her going west.. I dont know visually do it like a basketball and then underneath it a golf ball (kinda!) just trying to give a visual !!


Forward speed expected to slow for a bit

She is gonna be heading into a bit wetter area in the atmosphere.

As is normal the eye will keep like restarting resulting in changing wind speeds - they call it eyewall replacement cycles

Here are actual eyewall replacements

[video=youtube;Uc30tKTYylM]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uc30tKTYylM[/video]


She is expected to grow in size which wil result in warnings etc going up sooner in island areas in her path.

Leeward Islands

Virgin Island PR heads up -- monitor

Bahamas later in week monitor closely

Intensity ranges between 115- 140 mph anticipated for the next several days

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 

[CARIIS]

[FONT=&amp]There are two main forces that control where a hurricane goes—the environment, and something called “beta drift”. The environment around a hurricane is the main force behind the direction the storm goes, “steering” it in one direction or another.

The primary environmental steering for storms that form in the deep Atlantic tropics—these are the systems that move off Africa and spin into tropical lows—consists of the east-to-west moving trade winds, which drive storms across the Atlantic and toward the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.

This is what is above her now (last post) :

[/FONT][FONT=&amp]Other environmental factors will also influence storm motion, particularly areas of high pressure and atmospheric troughs that serve as “roadblocks,” preventing storms from encroaching upon the pressure areas.

[/FONT][FONT=&amp]other factors that must be considered with storm direction—strength of trade winds, upper air flow, sea surface temperatures, interaction with land,

[/FONT][FONT=&amp]When they get over land they run out of fuel. THat is why Harvey was so awful his tushie stayed at the gas pump the whole time!

[/FONT]https://spacecityweather.com/hurricane-houston-track-steer/
[FONT=&amp]


[/FONT]

 

[CARIIS]

When the planes go into the storm they put these things into what look like where your put a bank deposit in a drive thru!

As they fall they transmit all sorts of data to the plane

Here is what they look like

A dropsonde is a sensor that measures temperature, pressure, wind and humidity of the atmosphere. The sensor is attached to a parachute and is dropped from an aircraft over a given area, and rapidly transmits data back to the aircraft that dropped it.




http://www.hurricanescience.org/science/observation/aircraftrecon/hurricanehunters/

Inside the planes

The drops

google images

A dropsonde is a sensor that measures temperature, pressure, wind and humidity of the atmosphere. The sensor is attached to a parachute and is dropped from an aircraft over a given area, and rapidly transmits data back to the aircraft that dropped it.

 

[Henry2326]

wouldnt that be cool

Henry go nuts with me -- do you think that would help!!!1

Cariiis- this photo you posted says it all....I think the only dreams that will come true is an eye wall replacement when this thing hits the hot water. This storm has all the charateristics of the storms in 2004 and 2005 with rapid intensification.

Your pic posted here gives everyone notice a week ahead that this won't be a garden party. We can only hope that something changes for the better before it hits. The Canadian forecast is a best case. The sooner it hits some land the better.

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[JerseyGirl]

I'm supposed to go for the first vacation in almost 5 years...to the DR. Leaving this Friday...anyone have thoughts on if I should be canceling the trip? Irma whyyyyyyyyy


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I'd wait to cancel, but watch continuously at where the hurricane is heading. If you cancel now or rebook, you may be hit with penalties and increased airfare for rebooking.

Usually ahead of an approaching storm, most airlines will allow passengers before or after a major storm to rebook flights to the storm's destination area without penalty. If the resort is closed you may also be able to get a refund.

Keep an eye out for the airport weather in DR and keep checking that your resort will stay open this week.

 

[JerseyGirl]

The Illinois National Guard has sent a C-130 cargo aircraft and its crew to the U.S. Virgin Islands to help prepare for Hurricane Irma.

http://www.sj-r.com/news/20170903/air-guard-helping-with-hurricane-irma-preparations

Weather.com was reporting Sunday that Irma had strengthened into a category 3 hurricane. Residents of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands were being advised to keep an eye on forecasts.

 

[CARIIS]

Thanks for posting this! We have family in different parts of Florida and I am no stranger to hurricanes coming up the east coast as we are still out of our house after Sandy. The good news is that the house lifting is scheduled to start in a week, the bad news is that hurricane season is in full bloom.

I hope it fizzles out or blows east once they have a direction in the coming days but this is a mighty powerful storm and even the waters here are warm.


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What are the criteria that detemine if you get FEMA help?

Are there all different catagories you can get help for ?

What are your proof of purchases>

What stuff have they have hassled you about?

Does having home insurance impact your access t FEMA

Can people be totally denied any and FEMA help ( I get that Bill Gates wont qualify but!!

How long did it take you to get money?

What was involved?

In short how does this work ha!

 

[CARIIS]

Cariiis- this photo you posted says it all....I think the only dreams that will come true is an eye wall replacement when this thing hits the hot water. This storm has all the charateristics of the storms in 2004 and 2005 with rapid intensification.

Your pic posted here gives everyone notice a week ahead that this won't be a garden party. We can only hope that something changes for the better before it hits. The Canadian forecast is a best case. The sooner it hits some land the better.

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I knew they were hot a couple of days ago -- I had no idea they were that hot man that is bad bad news folks in terms of physical damages and the size of the storm surge cause she is gonna be a mean lady .

Flooding wont be an issue she is a fast moving little lady but ugh

Scary stuff huh Henry?

I think we all are burnt out -- boy has my fondness of hurricanes gone away

I will get your bathtub thing Thurs !

Provides some feeling of comfort but the worst part might end up being not having you guys casue of power

You think my posts are horrid now you do not want me using a friends cell and trying to type on a keyboard the size of a piece a bread

ughhhhhhhhhhhhh

 

[CARIIS]

Sure hope we won't need this thread, but as was said above, this is my go-to place for serious business! Thanks, CARIIS, for thinking ahead.

I start em when it is like I need to know you guys are on the story so we can find out what is happening in any major event.

Every news organization should have a intern assigned to WS- we do pretty amazing news collecting !!

It was from here that over time I learned how wrong CNN is - often.

In there rush to be first they are often wrong

Not fake news - but wrong news is not news!!

I only check em out on breaking stuff , then come here and of course my MSNBC with our spy story!

 

[CARIIS]

Henry,

My sense from your writing style is that you are naturally inclined to be good with details. By that i mean it is not difficult for you remember details.

I am the opposite -I am big picture and I need to have a why about things.

Then I can remember -- but I must have an explaination for why something is!

I can not do rote memorization. Too concrete.

The only time I cheated was in the 11th grade when we had to regurgitate the capitals (she was a dingbat!)

First, I could not a reason why I would never need to know that ! Who cares? not me!

So I took out like 10 pages of notebook paper wrote it all down pushing real hard so it made an impression on the page underneath it!!

When told to pull out a sheet of paper and vomit the data up poof!

I did not get a 100 - got an a but several of them I spaced out and did not push down hard enough to make sure I had the imprint ha!

Are you more math oriented?

I. am. not.!

While on the subject (!) can you just , if offhand without hunting on line , review her barometric pressure history (roughly!)

That is the kind of thing I cant do! When she gets closer I will have to write it down but barometric pressure has been so helpful in truly being able to anticpate what a system is up to!!

And see that is something (like many things) why cant it be logical?

When driving a car the higher the number on the speedometer the faster you going.

I like this! This make much sense to me!

But no it is just the opposite of what makes sense

ANd . . why cant we have a nice easy to remember like 1-10! No we have to have 3 4 digit things ............

Up is higher faster bigger etc etc

But nope!...

This is just not fair!

 

[JerseyGirl]

What are the criteria that detemine if you get FEMA help?

Are there all different catagories you can get help for ?

What are your proof of purchases>

What stuff have they have hassled you about?

Does having home insurance impact your access t FEMA

Can people be totally denied any and FEMA help ( I get that Bill Gates wont qualify but!!

How long did it take you to get money?

What was involved?

In short how does this work ha!

If you don't have flood insurance, FEMA will help you out and get you back on your feet and find you housing somewhere else.

During Sandy, we stayed in the house and lived upstairs while we tore the main house downstairs apart. We had no power for two weeks and were in mandatory evacuation area, only primary residents allowed, only if you stayed during the storm. The Salvation Army came by once daily with hot food in containers, a few volunteers were allowed in and provided peanut butter and jelly sandwiches and hot coffee and bottled water which was nice.

My sister, a renter, received FEMA assistance. She did not have flood insurance. We own our home, I have flood insurance, which is required if you own a mortgage.

Since we live in a waterfront tourist area, a lot of homes did not have flood insurance, as they had no mortgage and the little bungalows were passed down a few generations. Those were hit hardest.

We used the insurance funds to rehabilitate the first floor. (which were a hot debate since the insurance company barely paid much).

A few years later, the State announced grant money to life homes to those who quality. We applied and were approved. We moved out and are awaiting the lift next week. If we don't lift, FEMA/Insurance companies have announced insurance rates will go up from about $1,000 to $15,000 a year depending on your base elevation sea level.

So now, no one is buying a home in this area that has not been raised, overwise they have to factor in $100,000 in the cost to raise it, which would be required, again, only if you are mortgaging the property.

We didn't received anything like food or housing vouchers or any kind of funds from FEMA. We did have to register with FEMA in order to file a claim with the insurance companies. Once FEMA came and gave us a number, all of our future discussions and checks were then handled by the insurance companies.