OH OH - Brian Shaffer, 27, Columbus, 1 April 2006 - #3

[embufum]

Paying with cash is easy. The hard part is acquiring more of it to continue to live your life after it runs out, while doing so off the grid. That would either require a job that pays cash under the table, or stealing/forging an identity, or maybe panhandling on the streets. That’s not to say those things are impossible, but they’re really hard to do, especially while remaining unseen. It would also be really hard for him to avoid being recognized with all the publicity his case has gotten. Just like it was really hard for him to leave Ugly Tuna without being seen. Do you see where I am going with this? It would be hard enough for one of these things to happen, but when you string together all of them, you get a theory that just seems incredibly unlikely.

Two of my closest friends live in Columbus and never heard of Brian Shaffer until I mentioned him and they have lived there for over 20 years. Just because we keep up on Brian's case doesn't mean other people will automatically recognize him.

There are plenty of jobs that pay cash that don't require panhandling or breaking the law. I have a friend who made a great living selling jewelry at a large flea market. Only a few years ago did he start accepting CC payments and that's because of how easy it is now with a smart phone.

I have another friend who sells pecans on amazon (don't laugh) in bulk and makes about 4 K monthly. Now that's not under the table obviously but my point is there are a multitude of things Brian could be doing and how do we know he's not in a relationship. This would make it even easier if he collected his on line business profits in another persons name.

 

[Looking4Brian]

No, they don’t have to be lying, and it would be very easy for them to be mistaken. They said 1:55, but it could have been 1:50 or 1:45. He could have talked to the band before he was seen outside the bar. Or, he could have told them he was going to talk to the band but actually went outside. The human mind can alter timelines / what was said / sequence of events. Even moreso after a few drinks.

Think about one specific thing you did 3 days ago. Now tell me EXACTLY what time you did it. Unless it’s something that had a predetermined time (like a meeeting or appointment), I bet you can’t give it an exact time—if anything, there’s probably at least a +/- 15 minute window around it. That’s the experience Clint and Meredith would have had when giving detectives the timeline 3 days later.

A lot of people make it practically seem like Clint and Meredith were carrying around a notepad and wrote down “1:55am, Brian tells us he is going to talk to the band,” making notes of things that would have seemed inconsequential at the time, and that’s just not real life.

I agree with you 100%. I think the drinks were flowing and timing got misconstrued! Meredith passed her polygraph so she really believes in the timing she stated. However that doesn’t make it set in stone to me. Anyone that has ever been out drinking with their friends knows how time gets away from you.

 

[Satch]

I am not sure the methods that were taken by LE but I will definitely see if Sergeant Hurst will clear this up for us. My co-host Nick has been to the bar numerous times and got a private tour of the whole building and where each camera is located and what it records. I’m not sure if you heard the podcast and heard Sergeant Hurst say that one of the cameras operators had accidentally turned off the automatic pan button. When the door opens the camera is supposed to automatically start recording the door. Since the automatic pan was turned off that camera was not working. So that is 2 exits Brian could have used without cameras to get out of the building (counting the hallway with service elevator and stairway.)

Oh WOW!,

So we know that there was a camera not working and therefore turned off the night that Brian disappeared? I listed to the Podcasts, how could I have not caught that? My question would be how much time or information would not be gathered from seeing the bar patrons with that automatic pan feature on the camera turned off? It also raises the question why everyone else was seen exiting and not Brian? In other words, wouldn't that camera turned off had not caught other bar patrons leaving as well?

Satch

 

[Looking4Brian]

Oh WOW!,

So we know that there was a camera not working and therefore turned off the night that Brian disappeared? I listed to the Podcasts, how could I have not caught that? My question would be how much time or information would not be gathered from seeing the bar patrons with that automatic pan feature on the camera turned off? It also raises the question why everyone else was seen exiting and not Brian? In other words, wouldn't that camera turned off had not caught other bar patrons leaving as well?

Satch

It was not the pan of the escalator camera that was turned off. It was another exit leading to the construction site. Meaning there were now 2 other exits Brian could’ve taken without going down the escalator that we’re not on camera that night.

 

[Satch]

I am not sure the methods that were taken by LE but I will definitely see if Sergeant Hurst will clear this up for us. My co-host Nick has been to the bar numerous times and got a private tour of the whole building and where each camera is located and what it records. I’m not sure if you heard the podcast and heard Sergeant Hurst say that one of the cameras operators had accidentally turned off the automatic pan button. When the door opens the camera is supposed to automatically start recording the door. Since the automatic pan was turned off that camera was not working. So that is 2 exits Brian could have used without cameras to get out of the building (counting the hallway with service elevator and stairway.)

How many cameras are in the Ugly Tuna today? Both accessible to the public, and any cameras available to employees only?

Satch

 

[Looking4Brian]

How many cameras are in the Ugly Tuna today? Both accessible to the public, and any cameras available to employees only?

Satch

In 2006 there were not any cameras inside the UTS. Today there are 2-3 I believe. All cameras are ran by Gateway security is what I’m led to believe so I doubt UTS employees would have access to the cameras if that’s the case.

 

[embufum]

So according to records Clint and Meredith say after Brian spoke to the girls he came back in and said he was going to speak to the band. LE ask the band, the staff, and many many other people if they can recall seeing Brian back in the bar after 1:55am and no one else can put him back in the bar.

Meredith took a polygraph so I would imagine that one of the questions she was asked was what time was it when Brian said he was going to talk to the band. I've always understood it as when Brian came back into the bar Clint and Meredith were ready to go and Brian said he was going to talk to the band so they waited.

So I'm wondering how could both Meredith and Clint be mistaken about the time when they said they waited for him after he mentioned he was going to talk to the band and when he didn't come back they walked around the bar looking for him and called his cell phone. After a quick search they were seen leaving the bar going down the escalator at 2:09.

Also, people just can't assume that Meredith was drunk or even drinking at all. So her memory being impaired from alcohol may not have been an issue. The fact that she was driving she may have wanted to stay sober.

 

[XPh]

Brian is seen outside talking to the two girls at 1:55. This is on video with a time stamp. So all other points you make are moot.

Huh????

The claim is that he may not have reentered the bar after he was seen on camera. The supposed counterargument to that is that Clint and Meredith saw him after he reentered around 1:55 and he said he was headed toward the band.

If Clint/Meredith don’t remember the exact timeline or sequence of events, then there is a flaw in the counterargument, and he indeed may not have reentered.

So no, this is at the very crux of the issue as to whether or not he reentered, and not a “moot point.”

 

[embufum]

Huh????

The claim is that he may not have reentered the bar after he was seen on camera. The supposed counterargument to that is that Clint and Meredith saw him after he reentered around 1:55 and he said he was headed toward the band.

If Clint/Meredith don’t remember the exact timeline or sequence of events, then there is a flaw in the counterargument, and he indeed may not have reentered.

So no, this is at the very crux of the issue as to whether or not he reentered, and not a “moot point.”

You're assumption based on what?

 

[XPh]

You're assumption based on what?

What?? There is no assumption here. This is based on logic.

Point: Brian may not have reenteted the bar

Supposed counterpoint: Clint and Meredith said they say him after he was seen on video outside the bar.

Flaw in that counterpoint: Human memory is imperfect, Clint for sure had been drinking, Meredith may have been drinking too. Regardless, there is plenty of reason to think they may have the time wrong.

Therefore, the supposed counterpoint of “Clint and Meredith saw him renter the bar after he was seen on camera, therefore he must have” is invalid. Meaning it’s quite possible he didn’t reenter.

What assumption are you talking about??

 

[XPh]

Two of my closest friends live in Columbus and never heard of Brian Shaffer until I mentioned him and they have lived there for over 20 years. Just because we keep up on Brian's case doesn't mean other people will automatically recognize him.

There are plenty of jobs that pay cash that don't require panhandling or breaking the law. I have a friend who made a great living selling jewelry at a large flea market. Only a few years ago did he start accepting CC payments and that's because of how easy it is now with a smart phone.

I have another friend who sells pecans on amazon (don't laugh) in bulk and makes about 4 K monthly. Now that's not under the table obviously but my point is there are a multitude of things Brian could be doing and how do we know he's not in a relationship. This would make it even easier if he collected his on line business profits in another persons name.

To your first point, I dont expect everyone (or even many people at all for that matter) to recognize him, but to avoid ALL people that could recognize him for 12 years would be exceedingly difficult. It would probably be easier today, but especially tough in the first year or so after his disappearance due to the media coverage at the time.

To your second point, I still think you’re underestimating how hard this would be. There might be legal jobs that pay in cash, but last I checked, it’s still illegal to not file your taxes. If you’re running a business of any kind, no matter how small, it takes resources. For example, an “online business” as you suggest takes a computer and internet connection at bare minimum. Whose name is the internet service registered under? Unless he truly does have some sort of partner who is supplying him with everything he needs in his partner’s name and/or just providing for him entirely, this is just incredibly unlikely.

As I said before, it’s not impossible, but it’s far-fetched.

 

[embufum]

What?? There is no assumption here. This is based on logic.

Point: Brian may not have reenteted the bar

Supposed counterpoint: Clint and Meredith said they say him after he was seen on video outside the bar.

Flaw in that counterpoint: Human memory is imperfect, Clint for sure had been drinking, Meredith may have been drinking too. Regardless, there is plenty of reason to think they may have the time wrong.

Therefore, the supposed counterpoint of “Clint and Meredith saw him renter the bar after he was seen on camera, therefore he must have” is invalid. Meaning it’s quite possible he didn’t reenter.

What assumption are you talking about??

There is no "logical" reason to dismiss what Clint and Meredith said. Saying that "human memory is imperfect" doesn't make your assumption any stronger or anymore logical. By your logic we can and must dismiss anything that someone says simply because "human memory is imperfect".

Nothing about the human body is perfect so why would you assume that we need perfection to recall something that happened especially on a night so important.

Also Det Hurst said that the only people that puts Brian "BACK INTO THE BAR" is Clint and Meredith. Why would he word it that way? It's because both Clint and Meredith were aware of the time because they wanted to go. They knew the bar was winding down. I really doubt that Det Hurst was leading the two of them on so he could somehow try and get Brian back in the Tuna after he was seen on video turning towards the doorway.

For years people have wondered if Brian actually went back in the bar and now that we finally have two people that say he did and they just happen to be the people he came with well people are still dismissing it. At this point I don't think it even matters. Brian got out of there IMO one way or another and the real question in my mind is where is he.

One more point, you said "Clint and Meredith said they say him after he was seen on video outside the bar." I doubt that's what they said and here's why. What came first the police releasing the video tape or the interview with Clint and Meredith? To my knowledge the tape came out weeks later. Clint and Meredith were questioned early on. So it was Clint's and Meredith's testimony about the time line that corresponded to the video not the other way around.

Clint and Meredith were most likely not even aware of any video when they were questioned but by some coincidence Brian is seen on video ending a conversation and walking back towards the Tuna at the exact time Clint and Meredith said they spoke to him.

 

[embufum]

To your first point, I dont expect everyone (or even many people at all for that matter) to recognize him, but to avoid ALL people that could recognize him for 12 years would be exceedingly difficult. It would probably be easier today, but especially tough in the first year or so after his disappearance due to the media coverage at the time.

To your second point, I still think you’re underestimating how hard this would be. There might be legal jobs that pay in cash, but last I checked, it’s still illegal to not file your taxes. If you’re running a business of any kind, no matter how small, it takes resources. For example, an “online business” as you suggest takes a computer and internet connection at bare minimum. Whose name is the internet service registered under? Unless he truly does have some sort of partner who is supplying him with everything he needs in his partner’s name and/or just providing for him entirely, this is just incredibly unlikely.

As I said before, it’s not impossible, but it’s far-fetched.

He's not avoiding "ALL" people just the one's that knew him and most of them were in Columbus 12 years ago and some unfortunately are dead. How would it be tougher in the beginning? No one that I know of that lives near there even remembers hearing about it when it happened. I'll bet there are people who were at the bar that night that don't even know.

When I was talking to one of my friends from Columbus on the phone he even yelled to his wife if she knew who Brian Shaffer was "the guy that disappeared" and she never heard of him and she grew up there. Brian could have easily moved and no one would ever known who he was no matter when it was.

There is nothing hard what so ever about staying off the grid. It's even easier to do today. I know plenty of people who work for cash and they aren't even trying to hide. As far as Internet goes you can use a VPN network while using free WIFI and you can set up a website out of the country anonymously. You can accept cryptocurrency as payment. Of course I know that stuff like Bitcoin hasn't been around that long.

I could go on and NO I DO NOT condone doing this but my point is it's possible. I've been in the INTERNET sales business for over 25 years in many different aspects. All of these things you say that are "incredibly unlikely" doesn't make them so just because you might lack the knowledge of how these things you mention can be done.

 

[XPh]

There is no "logical" reason to dismiss what Clint and Meredith said. Saying that "human memory is imperfect" doesn't make your assumption any stronger or anymore logical. By your logic we can and must dismiss anything that someone says simply because "human memory is imperfect".

Nothing about the human body is perfect so why would you assume that we need perfection to recall something that happened especially on a night so important.

Also Det Hurst said that the only people that puts Brian "BACK INTO THE BAR" is Clint and Meredith. Why would he word it that way? It's because both Clint and Meredith were aware of the time because they wanted to go. They knew the bar was winding down. I really doubt that Det Hurst was leading the two of them on so he could somehow try and get Brian back in the Tuna after he was seen on video turning towards the doorway.

For years people have wondered if Brian actually went back in the bar and now that we finally have two people that say he did and they just happen to be the people he came with well people are still dismissing it. At this point I don't think it even matters. Brian got out of there IMO one way or another and the real question in my mind is where is he.

One more point, you said "Clint and Meredith said they say him after he was seen on video outside the bar." I doubt that's what they said and here's why. What came first the police releasing the video tape or the interview with Clint and Meredith? To my knowledge the tape came out weeks later. Clint and Meredith were questioned early on. So it was Clint's and Meredith's testimony about the time line that corresponded to the video not the other way around.

Clint and Meredith were most likely not even aware of any video when they were questioned but by some coincidence Brian is seen on video ending a conversation and walking back towards the Tuna at the exact time Clint and Meredith said they spoke to him.

You're all over the place here, and honestly your posts are hard to follow. But the only point here is that we do not know for a fact that Brian re-entered the bar (not that he definitely DID or DID NOT, but that we simply don't know). And I definitely stand by that. I also think it probably doesn't matter in the long run, but as people consider the possibilities of what happened that night, it's important that they know that he may or may not have reentered after being picked up on surveillance.

Also, for someone stating that I am making assumptions (still don't know what they are?), you seem to have a ton of them in this post. You think the way Det. Hurst phrased it means Clint and Meredith were aware of the time? That's quite a stance.

 

[XPh]

He's not avoiding "ALL" people just the one's that knew him and most of them were in Columbus 12 years ago and some unfortunately are dead.

That's basically exactly what I said--he would need to avoid "ALL people that could recognize him." Although I would add that includes not only friends and family, but people who might have seen his case through the media. I suggest you read more carefully before posting a misleading quote of what I said.

How would it be tougher in the beginning? No one that I know of that lives near there even remembers hearing about it when it happened. I'll bet there are people who were at the bar that night that don't even know.

Because like essentially every missing persons case, the bulk of the media coverage is going to be in the first year. Go back and look when most of the media stories were written/aired. A lot of them are soon after the disappearance, because it's considered a current event then.

When I was talking to one of my friends from Columbus on the phone he even yelled to his wife if she knew who Brian Shaffer was "the guy that disappeared" and she never heard of him and she grew up there.

I don't know what this adds to anything.

There is nothing hard what so ever about staying off the grid. It's even easier to do today. I know plenty of people who work for cash and they aren't even trying to hide. As far as Internet goes you can use a VPN network while using free WIFI and you can set up a website out of the country anonymously. You can accept cryptocurrency as payment. Of course I know that stuff like Bitcoin hasn't been around that long.

I could go on and NO I DO NOT condone doing this but my point is it's possible. I've been in the INTERNET sales business for over 25 years in many different aspects. All of these things you say that are "incredibly unlikely" doesn't make them so just because you might lack the knowledge of how these things you mention can be done.

I agree it's possible, but we're going to have to agree to disagree on how likely it is. You think I lack the knowledge of how to accomplish these things, but I think I'm being realistic. It's one thing to get paid in cash or to run an internet business etc. and another thing to do that while remaining completely hidden from LE, the public eye, the IRS, etc. I agree it's possible, but I stand by it being far fetched.

 

[embufum]

You're all over the place here, and honestly your posts are hard to follow. But the only point here is that we do not know for a fact that Brian re-entered the bar (not that he definitely DID or DID NOT, but that we simply don't know). And I definitely stand by that. I also think it probably doesn't matter in the long run, but as people consider the possibilities of what happened that night, it's important that they know that he may or may not have reentered after being picked up on surveillance.

Also, for someone stating that I am making assumptions (still don't know what they are?), you seem to have a ton of them in this post. You think the way Det. Hurst phrased it means Clint and Meredith were aware of the time? That's quite a stance.

No I'm not all over the place at all. Everything that I said was pretty clear and I break things up into paragraphs . I never said it was a fact he went back into the bar. I just disagree as to why you said he didn't and your telling me it's not logical and humans don't have perfect memories, but I covered all that.

What is your assumption? You're assumption is that "Brian did not re-enter the bar based on humans don't have perfect memories."

In black highlight. Not what I said. Clint and Meredith were aware of the time simply because they were ready to go because it was getting late and the bar was going to close soon and at some point I don't think it far fetched that they looked at the time either by means of a watch or phone or both.

Now as far as how Det Hurst worded it you said its quite a stance. Do you think that he shouldn't have worded it that way? When he asked Clint and Meredith that last time they saw Brian and they said approx 1:55 or even 2 am and that just happens to line up with the video of Brian walking towards the door. How is any of that quite a stance???

 

[Looking4Brian]

Let me tell you when I began this project I was just like you guys. We can literally argue every theory in Brian’s disappearance and have valid points. That is why this case is both confusing and intriguing to me. We have been told by numerous people that in order to investigate this properly we have to forget everything we think we know and start fresh and in some times we have to “be” Brian. There is so much false information out there for us to research down to Brian’s birthday. What I can say without giving anything away about future episodes is.....

1) The family dynamic wasn’t exactly reported accurately.

2) Everyone and I mean everyone involved in this case believe with 100% certainty that Brian got out of the Ugly Tuna Saloona.

3) You will learn exactly what was going on with Brian and the Girl and the conversation they had. (This was not the only time they spent together that evening)

4) You will learn more about Brian and his personality. This man was a free spirit that wanted to do things his way!!

5) Brian was a drastic changer from one extreme to the next.

And now one last tidbit (only because it comes out in Episode 3 either tomorrow or Tuesday lol). What if I told you Brian was an hour late to his own moms funeral whom he loved very much! And the whole funeral was put on hold until he arrived!! When he did he gave the excuse he overslept and no one believed him!!!!

 

[embufum]

That's basically exactly what I said--he would need to avoid "ALL people that could recognize him." Although I would add that includes not only friends and family, but people who might have seen his case through the media. I suggest you read more carefully before posting a misleading quote of what I said.

Suggestion noted


Because like essentially every missing persons case, the bulk of the media coverage is going to be in the first year. Go back and look when most of the media stories were written/aired. A lot of them are soon after the disappearance, because it's considered a current event then.

There are hundreds of missing people every year if Brian took off to another state or even another part of Ohio how can you assume that anyone in the country would even know about Brian? Bulk of media is local and by the time it was played out on a couple national TV shows it wasn't really current news anymore.


I don't know what this adds to anything.

It wasn't meant to add up to anything. I made a clear point and the statement stands on it's own,



I agree it's possible, but we're going to have to agree to disagree on how likely it is. You think I lack the knowledge of how to accomplish these things, but I think I'm being realistic. It's one thing to get paid in cash or to run an internet business etc. and another thing to do that while remaining completely hidden from LE, the public eye, the IRS, etc. I agree it's possible, but I stand by it being far fetched.

Answers above.

 

[XPh]

You're assumption is that "Brian did not re-enter the bar based on humans don't have perfect memories."

Responding to your posts has become exhausting because it's like talking in circles, and to make matters worse you continue to misquote me and/or fail to understand what I am saying.

Case in point: I did NOT assume this--because I have never said that he absolutely didn't re-enter. I said it's possible that he didn't re-enter (i.e., that we don't know one way or another). There's a subtle but VERY important difference.

 

[XPh]

Let me tell you when I began this project I was just like you guys. We can literally argue every theory in Brian’s disappearance and have valid points. That is why this case is both confusing and intriguing to me. We have been told by numerous people that in order to investigate this properly we have to forget everything we think we know and start fresh and in some times we have to “be” Brian. There is so much false information out there for us to research down to Brian’s birthday. What I can say without giving anything away about future episodes is.....

1) The family dynamic wasn’t exactly reported accurately.

2) Everyone and I mean everyone involved in this case believe with 100% certainty that Brian got out of the Ugly Tuna Saloona.

3) You will learn exactly what was going on with Brian and the Girl and the conversation they had. (This was not the only time they spent together that evening)

4) You will learn more about Brian and his personality. This man was a free spirit that wanted to do things his way!!

5) Brian was a drastic changer from one extreme to the next.

And now one last tidbit (only because it comes out in Episode 3 either tomorrow or Tuesday lol). What if I told you Brian was an hour late to his own moms funeral whom he loved very much! And the whole funeral was put on hold until he arrived!! When he did he gave the excuse he overslept and no one believed him!!!!

Can't wait for the next episode!