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I've been trying to rationalize the current 8 month radio silence as a positive. It certainly is preferable to Doug Carter issuing confusing and contradictory statements every few months. There is frequent DNA discussion on Reddit, apparently moreso than here. Yesterday in a thread there a poster very well versed in genealogical DNA was talking about 5th cousins and how long it would take to piece together toward the suspect, if that's all you had. The high profile cases that have been solved by this method have been very fortunate, with close enough proximity like 3rd cousins or nearer.
I thought I remembered reading something that broke down each category by how much backfitting it required. I found that link today:
Most People of European Ancestry Can Be Identified From a Relative’s DNA
This is the key paragraph:
“A second-cousin match is the sweet spot where it’s easy,” says Kennett, whereas a fourth-cousin match might take “thousands and thousands of hours’ work.” Identifying someone through a single third-cousin match is somewhere in the middle: It’s not trivial, but it’s very much possible."
***
I hope that's what is going on in this case behind the scenes...a painstaking 4th cousin family tree build. It's not likely, but IMO that is by far the best hope. In reading about every solved case via genealogical DNA the aspect that stands out is how frequently the term 3rd cousin is used. For more than a year I've been thinking that the related software and methods have got to be improving at rapid rate, to the point the more difficult cases can be attempted. They aren't going to try that type of thing without either high profile urgency, or plenty of money, or most likely a combination of the two. Delphi would seemingly be a great candidate...IF they have sufficient DNA that likely sources from the killer.
I hope that's the case because I'm sick of arguing about the particulars. For example, on another site I received a PM indicating that the hair being drawn on Bridge Guy is intended to mirror a specific suspect. That's why they are so adamant about it...they are trying to draw their guy onto the still frame and convince law enforcement to run around in circles and react. The PMer said not all of the posters are involved in that type of specificity -- that many simply believe it is hair alone -- but the ones taking it furthest own that bias. It makes perfect sense to me because straying from probability to greatest extreme almost always involves agenda fanaticism.
I knew it had to be something like that because one of the related posts matter of factly emphasized local guy. I was thinking...what does hair alone have to do with whether or not he was local?
It does if you're not trying to make a point so much as peg a name
re: third cousins and genaology tools:
I'm not sure how much help software would be with matches beyond third cousins. At that distance, lack of information becomes the big issue. Third cousins share a great-great-grandparent. That will take most families back at least a hundred years and into an era when people didn't pay as much attention to recordkeeping. What sources there are may have been lost or damaged, and they aren't on line. It was much more common in the US to repeat names within a family, so determining if the "Peter Smith" who married "Mary Lamb" is the same "Peter Smith" who married "Mary Pumpkin" can be tricky. Same guy, two marriages? Two guys, two marriages? One guy, one woman who was previously married? And in many cases Mary Lamb's birth name might not be recorded anywhere.
I have endless admiration for the people who have the knowledge and patience to unscramble the trail piece by piece.
I was thinking of it too. How organized should one be to prepare it all - hang antlers in advance, only to replace them with something special later?I have often thought this too... and I clearly recall LE saying waaaay back they at first they did not realize it was a crime scene (sadly no link) so I have oft wondered if girls were hung or up in trees somehow.
AFAIK (not a hunter myself) some hunters do like to hang stuff from trees (animal hides, antlers, deer heads or whatever) but I can't imagine BG had much time. Yeah, "looked up" and saw them. Makes me wonder.
Had a chance to see 'The Wall' concert in NYC as a kid...I passed!! Lol, got the t-shirt though
I've been trying to rationalize the current 8 month radio silence as a positive. It certainly is preferable to Doug Carter issuing confusing and contradictory statements every few months. There is frequent DNA discussion on Reddit, apparently moreso than here. Yesterday in a thread there a poster very well versed in genealogical DNA was talking about 5th cousins and how long it would take to piece together toward the suspect, if that's all you had. The high profile cases that have been solved by this method have been very fortunate, with close enough proximity like 3rd cousins or nearer.
I thought I remembered reading something that broke down each category by how much backfitting it required. I found that link today:
Most People of European Ancestry Can Be Identified From a Relative’s DNA
This is the key paragraph:
“A second-cousin match is the sweet spot where it’s easy,” says Kennett, whereas a fourth-cousin match might take “thousands and thousands of hours’ work.” Identifying someone through a single third-cousin match is somewhere in the middle: It’s not trivial, but it’s very much possible."
***
I hope that's what is going on in this case behind the scenes...a painstaking 4th cousin family tree build. It's not likely, but IMO that is by far the best hope. In reading about every solved case via genealogical DNA the aspect that stands out is how frequently the term 3rd cousin is used. For more than a year I've been thinking that the related software and methods have got to be improving at rapid rate, to the point the more difficult cases can be attempted. They aren't going to try that type of thing without either high profile urgency, or plenty of money, or most likely a combination of the two. Delphi would seemingly be a great candidate...IF they have sufficient DNA that likely sources from the killer.
I hope that's the case because I'm sick of arguing about the particulars. For example, on another site I received a PM indicating that the hair being drawn on Bridge Guy is intended to mirror a specific suspect. That's why they are so adamant about it...they are trying to draw their guy onto the still frame and convince law enforcement to run around in circles and react. The PMer said not all of the posters are involved in that type of specificity -- that many simply believe it is hair alone -- but the ones taking it furthest own that bias. It makes perfect sense to me because straying from probability to greatest extreme almost always involves agenda fanaticism.
I knew it had to be something like that because one of the related posts matter of factly emphasized local guy. I was thinking...what does hair alone have to do with whether or not he was local?
It does if you're not trying to make a point so much as peg a name