Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #45

[otto]

While I am handling our country's lockdown pretty well, with just minor cabin fever, I'm finding it really hard to retrain myself to not touch my face. I suffer from allergies and wear spectacles, and I constantly touch my face everyday. This virus has made me even more aware of how much I do it. So of course I am washing my hands frequently to try to counteract it. Does anyone have any tips?

Self-discipline is the only option. Remember the days, perhaps 1950s, when everyone carried a handkerchief? Something like that might be good to keep in or near one hand. If your nose is itchy or glasses need to be pushed up, cover your hand.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

BREAKING: CDC issues new guidance saying essential workers who have been exposed to COVID-19 can RETURN to work if showing no symptoms in first step towards reopening the U.S.

• The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released new guidelines Wednesday night for essential workers who are exposed to COVID-19
• Exposed critical workers can go back to work if they're asymptomatic
• Previously all exposed workers were told to isolate for 14 days
• They have to follow new guidelines including taking their temperature before work, wearing a face mask at all times, and practicing social distancing
• Employers in essential industries are also being told to send sick workers home, take temperatures of employees and increase air exchange in buildings
• Senate Democrats are now rallying behind these critical employees by calling for a 'Heroes Fund' to increase their pay by up to $25,000

CDC issues new guidance rules for essential workers exposed to coronavirus | Daily Mail Online

Won't this spread the virus faster among the essential workers? If people are contagious before symptoms show then sending employees home only after they get a temperature is too late. So much for flattening the curve...

MOO.

Alrighty then - I can go to my doc who has been exposed, and presymptomatic but covering his/her face. Um, no thanks. What a hot mess.

Here is a list of who is considered essential critical infrastructure workers.

There are 16 critical infrastructure sectors whose assets, systems, and networks, whether physical or virtual, are considered so vital to the United States that their incapacitation or destruction would have a debilitating effect on security, national economic security, national public health or safety, or any combination thereof. Presidential Policy Directive 21 (PPD-21): PPD-21 identifies 16 critical infrastructure sectors.

Chemical Sector
Commercial Facilities Sector
Communications Sector
Critical Manufacturing Sector
Dams Sector
Defense Industrial Base Sector
Emergency Services Sector
Energy Sector
Financial Services Sector
Food and Agriculture Sector
Government Facilities Sector
Healthcare and Public Health Sector
Information Technology Sector
Nuclear Reactors, Materials, and Waste Sector
Transportation Systems Sector
Water and Wastewater Systems Sector

Identifying Critical Infrastructure During COVID-19 | CISA

 

[cass523]

STAY SAFE: U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams shows easy way to make homemade face mask

 

[otto]

First patient tested positive was on February 25th, the schools were closed on March 13th, as well as the museums, galleries, restaurants, stores, public transportation etc., and the
army started building tents.

Self- isolating measures started then, as well as prohibiting more than 5 people at the same place (excuse my poor verbal skill at the moment, I am very tired).

Very same here. Schools on March 13 plus all public places, limits on numbers of people who could gather. We were given projections yesterday - they are scary.

"The probable scenario is that infections will peak in mid-May, according to modelling done by Alberta Health Services.

"From the beginning of the outbreak to the end of summer we could see as many as 800,000 infections, and between 400 and 3,100 deaths,"

Under a less likely elevated scenario, infections would peak at the beginning of May with as many as one-million positive tests and between 500 and 6,600 deaths.
...

Kenney provided a much more dire outlook for the province if physical distancing was not practiced and public health orders were not issued. If those key steps weren't taken, the province could have seen as many as 1.6-million infections and 32,000 deaths, or 640 deaths per day, the data shows."​

Alberta could see up to 800,000 COVID-19 infections in 'most likely' scenario

 

[JustEve]

Following the hint few posts before, i assume this is the right statistics
Croatia Coronavirus: 1,343 Cases and 19 Deaths - Worldometer
You are on a good way with those measures!
However i just think that the first infection is not directy impacting the death rate. As the statistics show the cases start climbing only late March, so i assume the next 2 weeks will show how the trend develops. Keeping all fingers crossed!

Well, thank you very much for your kindness, Darling 136!

Yes, this is exactly what our epidemiologists say: the peak will be in 2 to 3 weeks.

I hope US will reach maximum soon and your numbers will begin to fall!

 

[otto]

I think not. War in Bosnia was over in 1995. or 1996.

During the war there were not beds outside the hospitals nowhere, there would be too many victims, they were shooting and bombing all over.

I did not mean that- I meant that the countries here,
after the experience of war, are very quick and organized to respond to any threat.
One good thing you learn from the war.

Canada has not had war in the same sense as Europe. Mobilization will not be like China, where a hospital was built in 11 days, or a temporary military tent outside a hospital, more likely gymnasiums and indoor sport areas will be used.

 

[JustEve]

Very same here. Schools on March 13 plus all public places, limits on numbers of people who could gather. We were given projections yesterday - they are scary.

"The probable scenario is that infections will peak in mid-May, according to modelling done by Alberta Health Services.

"From the beginning of the outbreak to the end of summer we could see as many as 800,000 infections, and between 400 and 3,100 deaths,"

Under a less likely elevated scenario, infections would peak at the beginning of May with as many as one-million positive tests and between 500 and 6,600 deaths.
...

Kenney provided a much more dire outlook for the province if physical distancing was not practiced and public health orders were not issued. If those key steps weren't taken, the province could have seen as many as 1.6-million infections and 32,000 deaths, or 640 deaths per day, the data shows."

Oh, God... These numbers are horrifying

 

[margarita25]

BREAKING: CDC issues new guidance saying essential workers who have been exposed to COVID-19 can RETURN to work if showing no symptoms in first step towards reopening the U.S.

• The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released new guidelines Wednesday night for essential workers who are exposed to COVID-19
• Exposed critical workers can go back to work if they're asymptomatic
• Previously all exposed workers were told to isolate for 14 days
• They have to follow new guidelines including taking their temperature before work, wearing a face mask at all times, and practicing social distancing
• Employers in essential industries are also being told to send sick workers home, take temperatures of employees and increase air exchange in buildings
• Senate Democrats are now rallying behind these critical employees by calling for a 'Heroes Fund' to increase their pay by up to $25,000

CDC issues new guidance rules for essential workers exposed to coronavirus | Daily Mail Online

Won't this spread the virus faster among the essential workers? If people are contagious before symptoms show then sending employees home only after they get a temperature is too late. So much for flattening the curve...

MOO.

Hmmm.

Here is the full guidance from CDC:

“To ensure continuity of operations of essential functions, CDC advises that critical infrastructure workers may be permitted to continue work following potential exposure to COVID-19, provided they remain asymptomatic and additional precautions are implemented to protect them and the community.

A potential exposure means being a household contact or having close contact within 6 feet of an individual with confirmed or suspected COVID-19. The timeframe for having contact with an individual includes the period of time of 48 hours before the individual became symptomatic.

Critical Infrastructure workers who have had an exposure but remain asymptomatic should adhere to the following practices prior to and during their work shift:
-more at link
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

—

My first thought is I’m recalling what Dr. Maria said a couple times about being clear about “asymptomatic” vs. “pre-symptomatic”. She discussed the percentage of those who do go on to experience symptoms. I have the numbers she mentioned in my mind but don’t want to quote as moo without full reference in context and link & quote.

So, I’m confused. 48 hours from time of exposure, not 14 days? Am I understanding this correctly?

—

CDC issues new guidance to make it easier for essential workers exposed to coronavirus to return to work

“In a first, small step toward reopening the country, the Trump administration issued new guidelines Wednesday to make it easier for essential workers who have been exposed to COVID-19 to get back to work if they do not have symptoms of the coronavirus.

Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, announced at the White House that essential employees, such as health care and food supply workers, who have been within 6 feet of a confirmed or suspected case of the virus can return to work under certain circumstances if they are not experiencing symptoms.”

[...]

“Under the new guidelines for essential workers, the CDC recommends that exposed employees take their temperatures before their shifts, wear face masks and practice social distancing at work. They also are advised to stay home if they are ill, not share headsets or other objects used near the face and refrain from congregating in crowded break rooms.

Employers are asked to take exposed workers’ temperatures and assess symptoms before allowing them to return to work, aggressively clean work surfaces, send workers home if they get sick and increase air exchange in workplaces.”

—-

Yale Professor: Changes to CDC Guidelines for Workers Should Wait

“”For the most part, if you’ve had the virus you’re not getting it again. So, someone who’s been infected is one of your safest employees,” said Dr. Howard Forman, director of the Healthcare Management program at Yale University.

But for those employees who were exposed but have no symptoms, Forman says there needs to be a number of systems in place before those guideline changes. He says there should be plans to prevent the possible spread or on-site sickness by an asymptomatic employee.”

[...]

He says without access to rapid tests, it could be dangerous to the progress we’re making under current CDC guidance.

“Right now the most important thing is to see capacity in our hospitals go all the way back down to normal before we do relaxing of social distancing measures at all.””

[...]

“It is so important to get our economy back going but we do not want to do it at the expense of human lives.”

——

I want to make sure I’m totally clear about all this and up to date on the everything before commenting on this.

-

@Gardener1850 , re: the new CDC guidance, continuing from my above post, surely I’m missing something here? I must be misunderstanding this new guidance...surely...

Pandemic 101 is to isolate then quarantine all contacts...

48 hours from exposure? This makes no sense...

I am really struggling here...

This can’t be?

This goes against everything we’ve learned up to this point.

Are they basing this new decision off any new data perhaps I haven’t seen yet?

Where is the documentation that this is a safe decision?

I am trying to understand here.

I’m really confused.

How did this all go down
& come to pass?

Is there a video link with DT discussing this?

I know Dr. Mike said early on the asymptomatic transmission is not the main force driving the epidemic (when it was an epidemic and not pandemic), but as far as we know such transmission can still occur, right?

Have things changed? I’m all confused.

I realize that there must be huge staffing issues if one person is infected then the whole rest of the staff has to isolate...

Idk I feel like there’s something I’m missing.

Was this ordered by the President?

We know the State Department won over CDC last time when CDC had different recommendations re: the stranded passengers...But this is CDC’s guidance..

ETA: @dixiegirl1035 , thoughts? I must be missing some new information or reports...

I’m behind here so maybe this is discussed further, catching up.

 

[cass523]

During Wednesday’s World News Tonight, ABC’s Dr. Jen Aston promoted a pre-trial drug that blocked the virus from attaching to lung cells.

“It's a drug called EIDD 2801. A pill that blocks the coronavirus from attaching to lung cells in test tubes. It could be used to both treat and prevent COVID-19, and it set to start clinical trials in humans this spring,” she explained. “Not a moment too soon,” declared anchor David Muir.

Nets Hype Experimental Virus Treatments, Bash Drug Boosted By Trump

Clinical studies evaluating an antiviral drug that is in development against SARS-CoV-2 are expected to begin later this spring. Scientists working to develop the drug, which is called EIDD-2801, suggest that if trials are successful, the drug could not only be used to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2, but could also control future outbreaks of other emerging coronaviruses. EIDD-2801 is an orally available form of the antiviral compound EIDD-1931, which has shown promise in reducing lung damage in animal models.

Clinical Trial Evaluating Oral Drug against Coronavirus Expected to Start Later This Spring

 

[JustEve]

Canada has not had war in the same sense as Europe. Mobilization will not be like China, where a hospital was built in 11 days, or a temporary military tent outside a hospital, more likely gymnasiums and indoor sport areas will be used.

I know. And I think this is not important- China has built new hospital, ex- Yugoslavian countries are putting military tents outside, Canada will use gymnasiums, it is all the same and it is all good because only one thing is important now: not to mix Covid-19 patients with non- Covid- 19 patients.

 

[otto]

Well, thank you very much for your kindness, Darling 136!

Yes, this is exactly what our epidemiologists say: the peak will be in 2 to 3 weeks.

I hope US will reach maximum soon and your numbers will begin to fall!

That's interesting! There are parallels here and there with closure and self-isolation date, population and number of cases, yet peak prediction dates are different. For you, it is 2-3 weeks, meaning end April. For us it is mid-May if things go well. Early May if the current situation is not maintained. Will be interesting to see which prediction is accurate.

 

[Sundog]

Very same here. Schools on March 13 plus all public places, limits on numbers of people who could gather. We were given projections yesterday - they are scary.

"The probable scenario is that infections will peak in mid-May, according to modelling done by Alberta Health Services.

"From the beginning of the outbreak to the end of summer we could see as many as 800,000 infections, and between 400 and 3,100 deaths,"

Under a less likely elevated scenario, infections would peak at the beginning of May with as many as one-million positive tests and between 500 and 6,600 deaths.
...

Kenney provided a much more dire outlook for the province if physical distancing was not practiced and public health orders were not issued. If those key steps weren't taken, the province could have seen as many as 1.6-million infections and 32,000 deaths, or 640 deaths per day, the data shows."​

Alberta could see up to 800,000 COVID-19 infections in 'most likely' scenario

My brother lives outside of Edmonton so I've been following Kenney's briefings, especially the one last night and its dire projections.

 

[otto]

Oh, God... These numbers are horrifying

That's a population of 4 million all living with the same rules. A lot of people don't want to believe that it is accurate, but we know the numbers didn't come out of thin air.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

@Gardener1850 , surely I’m missing something here. I must be misunderstanding this new guidance...surely...

Pandemic 101 is to isolate then quarantine all contacts...

48 hours from exposure? This makes no sense...

I am really struggling here...

This can’t be?

This goes against everything we’ve learned up to this point.

Where is the documentation that this is a safe decision?

I am trying to understand here.

Are they basing this new decision off any new data perhaps I haven’t seen yet?

I’m really confused here.

How did this all go down
& come to pass?

Is there a video link with DT discussing this?

I know Dr. Mike said early on the asymptomatic transmission is not the main force driving the epidemic, but as far as we know it can still happen, right?

Have things changed? I’m all confused.

I realize there must be huge staffing issues if one person is infected then the whole rest of the staff has to isolate...

Idk I feel like there’s something I’m missing.

Was this ordered by the President?

We know the State Department won over CDC last time when CDC had different recommendations re: the stranded passengers...But this is CDC’s guidance..

Yep, it's a SNAFU of major proportions. The 48 hours comes into play such as this.

Jane gets COVID symptoms and is positive. Joe was around Jane 48 hours prior to Jane's symptoms, so Joe must wear a mask for 14 days. Yeppers, it doesn't go further back than that. That's based on data that the virus incubation doesn't create viral loading to spread until 2 days before symptoms I guess, even if the incubation for Jane was 8 days. But but but you ask and say... Jane was showing symptoms and didn't get tested/get test results for 7 days afterwards. (or was never tested at all these days)

My head's spinning... where is that old spinning emoticon we used to have.... I'm as confused as you are

As Dr. Campbell would say, this begs credulity. They're critical, so we are more lax with them... SMDH

.... pfffft.

 

[otto]

My brother lives outside of Edmonton so I've been following Kenney's briefings, especially the one last night and its dire projections.

It has to be the same predictions across the country, with BC and Ontario perhaps having an earlier peak date because they were later with implementing restrictions. Montreal is in trouble, most likely from cross border travel.

If there are 800,000 sick for each 4 million population, that's an entirely different story than we heard from China. That prediction would suggest 6 million Canadians will be infected (based on pop. of 33 million) by May.

On the other hand, US has 132 million pop. and is predicting a total of 1-2 million infected, or was that deaths. Does anyone remember Fauci's predictions?

 

[margarita25]

Yep, it's a SNAFU of major proportions. The 48 hours comes into play such as this.

Jane gets COVID symptoms and is positive. Joe was around Jane 48 hours prior to Jane's symptoms, so Joe must wear a mask for 14 days. Yeppers, it doesn't go further back than that. That's based on data that the virus incubation doesn't create viral loading to spread until 2 days before symptoms I guess, even if the incubation for Jane was 8 days. But but but you ask and say... Jane was showing symptoms and didn't get tested/get test results for 7 days afterwards. (or was never tested at all these days)

My head's spinning... where is that old spinning emoticon we used to have.... I'm as confused as you are

As Dr. Campbell would say, this begs credulity. They're critical, so we are more lax with them... SMDH

.... pfffft.

Thank you! I actually just shouted out to you in the above post as an eta to see specifically what your thoughts were.

Wth?!

I’m going to bed. I need to sleep on this.

I’m scared now. Really scared.

 

[JustEve]

That's interesting! There are parallels here and there with closure and self-isolation date, population and number of cases, yet peak prediction dates are different. For you, it is 2-3 weeks, meaning end April. For us it is mid-May if things go well. Early May if the current situation is not maintained. Will be interesting to see which prediction is accurate.[/QUOTE

That's a population of 4 million all living with the same rules. A lot of people don't want to believe that it is accurate, but we know the numbers didn't come out of thin air.

Well, I don´t understand these predictions.

In my country, they expect about 4 000 people getting sick and maximum 200 deaths.

I don´t know why.

Are the cities in your region of Canada "locked", so that you can´t travel from town to town?
Do you still have public transport?

 

[JustEve]

I’m going to bed. I need to sleep on this.

I’m scared now. Really scared.

Oh, margarita25... Don` t be scared- as stupid as I know it sounds- don´t be scared.

You are doing everything in your power to be safe, along with your loved ones.

Stay home as you do, stay safe and don´t be scared, dear.

We live in terrible times, but it will pass- even in 2022., but it will pass.

Stay safe and sweet dreams!

 

[otto]

Well, I don´t understand these predictions.

In my country, they expect about 4 000 people getting sick and maximum 200 deaths.

I don´t know why.

Are the cities in your region of Canada "locked", so that you can´t travel from town to town?
Do you still have public transport?

My comments refer to a province of 4.3 million, not the entire country. I think people are still travelling in the province for work - necessary for supply chain.

Croatia (56,594 km²) is 0.09 times as big as Alberta (661,850 km²). Different size means different measures.

MapFight - Croatia vs Alberta size comparison

I've wondered if living farther apart from each other could somewhat slow the spread.

 

[JustEve]

My comments refer to a province of 4.3 million, not the entire country. I think people are still travelling in the province for work - necessary for supply chain.

Croatia (56,594 km²) is 0.09 times as big as Alberta (661,850 km²). Different size means different measures.

Yes, that must be it.

But still, 800 000 sick people sounds terrible.

I really hope this is the worst case scenario that will not happen, I really do.