Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #88

[anneg]

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding has an interesting thread on Twitter about the Oxford/Astrazeneca vaccine:
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1330785038737281025

I don't know how to copy the posts and put them here, sorry.

Here is the link to the BBC article linked in Dr. Ding's thread: Covid-19: Oxford University vaccine is highly effective

Excerpt:
Interim data suggests 70% protection, but the researchers say the figure may be as high as 90% by tweaking the dose.

The results will be seen as a triumph, but come after Pfizer and Moderna vaccines showed 95% protection.

However, the Oxford jab is far cheaper, and is easier to store and get to every corner of the world than the other two.

So the vaccine will play a significant role in tackling the pandemic, if it is approved for use by regulators.

 

[Sprockett7701]

Translation, please?

Just saying that all I see are comments on social media platforms, with people constantly defending their “rights” over everybody else’s. And how that ignorance leads to the destruction of the world we are seeing now.

What if a vaccine doesn’t come available to the public for another 12 mths? Is everybody going to get infected in the meantime? That seems to be the vibe I’m getting now...

 

[10ofRods]

I just tried to do an ETA on an above post of mine, darn was 1 minute over the 60 minute limit.

Anyway...

Could some of these folks that are asymptomatic be "carriers" in their nostrils or upper respiratory. Where it doesn't take hold in the lungs and be like the Energizer bunny and keep going and going and going, and is only for a time active in the nasopharynx for positive testing and no symptoms?

The nasal pharynx has ACE2 IIRC. They are located in multiple sites. Besides being in the lung, they’re in your mouth, nose, throat, stomach, small intestine, colon, skin, lymph nodes, thymus, bone marrow, spleen, liver, kidney, brain, and testes. It makes sense that if the virus only gets into your mouth or nose or throat, but not the lungs, that it would cause only cold-like symptoms. But if the virus gets all the way down into the alveoli of your lungs...

Could it be that the body fights off in the lungs due to IgG and IgM antibodies that have cross protection, yet IgA antibodies haven't wiped the nose virions out? (vs. just an issue with a smaller dose and never gets to lungs?) I have yet to see IIRC discussions of IgA which is one of the last antibodies to be developed (to be corrected by others here). Those antibodies lacking in the nasopharynx... would lead to a sort of "carrier state where they would be deemed asymptomatic yet positive on a test until the IgA antibodies developed?"

Analagous to typhoid Mary kinda situation short or longer term?

Not sure where I'm going with this.... just putting it out there as IgA hasn't been discussed in MSM at all, and not much at all from docs we follow here.

Short answer is absolutely. This is exactly what may be happening. In fact, this is why children are still spreaders. Many adults may have some prior cross-reactive immunity to COVID that keeps it from settling into their own bodies, but they're still carrying it around and transmitting it while their bodies go through that process. Great for them, horrible for everyone else.

On that note, the current fatality rate for people aged 40-50 who get COVID (the parent generation of the college students heading home, basically) is 0.5% (at least that's the estimate I keep reading). Sounds small, but really isn't. Way higher risk than that of getting murdered or dying in a car accident. Half a person per 100 is 1 person per 200.

1 person per 200 is a lot. This is of course, the rate of death per cases that are known (which includes more symptomatic people than a random sample). We don't actually know how many 40-50 year olds are asymptomatic (let's say it's half). That would improve that statistic considerably (1 in 400). Still a lot, with hundreds of thousands of asymptomatic young adult carriers heading home. Everyone thinks they are being "careful," but they are traveling in groups, local media is showing them piling into cars (unmasked, with their friends - because they all got a negative test before they set out).

Meanwhile, posters here are accurately giving information that during the first days of being infectious, a person may still test negative. And that's the "margin of error" in all of this. A person has COVID, it hasn't ramped up yet, tests negative, and 3 days later, arrives home at the peak of their infectiousness (still asymptomatic or largely so).

"Fatigue" is the usual symptom that the "asymptomatic" eventually reveal may, in retrospect, have been a clue. But nearly all college students feel fatigue at the end of the semester and traveling is tiring. If you ask college students what they think the symptoms of COVID might be, they list "coughing" and "cold-like symptoms" as the things to look out for. But there are many others, as we all know. Severe headache is common as an early symptom. Allergy-like symptoms of all kinds (including rashes) are common.

Anyway, I am tempted to turn off the television and shut down my Worldometers tab.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding has an interesting thread on Twitter about the Oxford/Astrazeneca vaccine:
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1330785038737281025

I don't know how to copy the posts and put them here, sorry.

Thanks! It took some reading and rolling and scrolling. It appears on his post #13 of the thread, that since this virus was and specific part inserted into an Adenovirus (as many are in trials) .. that the high dose makes the immune system target the carrier Adenovirus vs. COVID insertion? (Some mRNA are pure parts, the others are inserted into an adenovirus carrier which the immune system may focus on and split it's efforts?)

And the COVID insertion is only more recognized on the second dose? But why does that happen if both have the same injection.... just one that is so high on the first that antibodies are focused on the carrier?

Looking forward to ONE in depth on such as I may be misinterpreting.

This is a time I feel like I'm really trying to keep up, yet falling behind. Must refocus on science vs. MSM again?

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Just saying that all I see are comments on social media platforms, with people constantly defending their “rights” over everybody else’s. And how that ignorance leads to the destruction of the world we are seeing now.

What if a vaccine doesn’t come available to the public for another 12 mths? Is everybody going to get infected in the meantime? That seems to be the vibe I’m getting now...

Myself, I'm planning on only being able to get at next summer at the earliest after reading what I posted upthread.

In February, I planned on ok in summer
In July, I planned on ok in early 2021
Now.. only when I GET A VACCINE

I've not seen one report that it will take 12 months, yet 9 months vs. 12... SMH I get it... I do get where you are coming from. LONG DAMN TIME

For some, it actually could be unfortunately... but hope not. I really do think mainstream at this moment is targeted prior to next fall. As to the priorities.... normal population is way down the line... (see above priorities which I posted and what the availabilities projected will be ...)

 

[weepingangel]

FYI. Avoid cruising. Thank you cdc.

'All people' should avoid travel on cruise ships, CDC warns
More at link


The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has upped its warning on cruise ships, now advising that "all people avoid travel on cruise ships."

The federal agency now classifies cruise travel as "Level 4: Very High Level of COVID-19" and clarifies that this includes river cruises and applies worldwide.


At the end of October, the CDC lifted its months-long ban on cruise ships operating in and out of U.S. ports.

 

[24Roses]

Iowa numbers and news today: As of 10:00-11:00 a.m. we had 1,661 new "confirmed" cases for a total of 211,722 confirmed cases of which 116,807 are recovering (+502). 13 more were reported to have passed for a total of 2,205. 135 were hospitalized in the last 24 hrs. for a total of 1,333 (-7). There are 92,710 active positive cases with a 24 hr. positivity rate of 33% according to KWWL.
Here are the daily age group increases (I'm short 1 total): 0-17: 20,733 (+221); 18-40: 89,603 (+584); 41-60: 60,355 (+524); 61-80: 32,090 (+271); 81+: 8,886 (+60). Nov. 23: 1,661 new cases, 502 recoveries, 13 deaths
access Daily case numbers updated at 11:00 a.m.
MLB schedules game at Field of Dreams for next season
'I’m still feeling good' Sen. Grassley tweets update
Des Moines bar given 2-day license suspension
* On a side note and IMO-Along with the Test Iowa sites being closed on the weekend, there is a back log and a machine is also broke.

 

[Tillicum]

I have no words.
Coronavirus in Ohio Monday update: 11,885 new cases, state surpasses 6,000 deaths | NBC4 WCMH-TV

As of Monday, Nov. 23, a total of 363,304 (+11,885) cases have been reported in Ohio since the pandemic began, leading to 6,020 (+24) deaths and 24,705 (+282) hospitalizations.

The 11,885 new cases in the past 24 hours represents a record high and the first time there have been over 10,000 reported in a day. But DeWine said the number may be artificially high as two labs — Cincinnati’s Mercy Health and the Cleveland Clinic — failed to report for consecutive days. Both days were added to Monday’s total.

 

[Knitty]

I have no words.
Coronavirus in Ohio Monday update: 11,885 new cases, state surpasses 6,000 deaths | NBC4 WCMH-TV

As of Monday, Nov. 23, a total of 363,304 (+11,885) cases have been reported in Ohio since the pandemic began, leading to 6,020 (+24) deaths and 24,705 (+282) hospitalizations.

The 11,885 new cases in the past 24 hours represents a record high and the first time there have been over 10,000 reported in a day. But DeWine said the number may be artificially high as two labs — Cincinnati’s Mercy Health and the Cleveland Clinic — failed to report for consecutive days. Both days were added to Monday’s total.

I'm so sorry. Just last week, Florida reported more than 10,000 cases for the first time since July. It is coloring my approach to the coming holidays even more.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

I have no words.
Coronavirus in Ohio Monday update: 11,885 new cases, state surpasses 6,000 deaths | NBC4 WCMH-TV

As of Monday, Nov. 23, a total of 363,304 (+11,885) cases have been reported in Ohio since the pandemic began, leading to 6,020 (+24) deaths and 24,705 (+282) hospitalizations.

The 11,885 new cases in the past 24 hours represents a record high and the first time there have been over 10,000 reported in a day. But DeWine said the number may be artificially high as two labs — Cincinnati’s Mercy Health and the Cleveland Clinic — failed to report for consecutive days. Both days were added to Monday’s total.

Well, many at WS may agree MOO that every Sunday is low. And that might on Sunday not break the "record high".

Ummm, yes... it's a backup for testing as is always on Sundays as most all here know by now for many many many months. To say that a hospital "failed to report"... um yes.. we know that. It is par for the course, folks who follow get it.. and it has come to be "standard" MOO

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Today presser.

I learn so much about statistics and how some states handle from following him as to COVID . Many may agree to disagree, but I'm dumbfounded as to what I learn from these pressers as to SCIENCE to consider. Sticking to the original standards and plan for COVID, not wavering. I have learned so much from his pressers as to COVID.

 

[Rose in SC]

I have no words.
Coronavirus in Ohio Monday update: 11,885 new cases, state surpasses 6,000 deaths | NBC4 WCMH-TV

As of Monday, Nov. 23, a total of 363,304 (+11,885) cases have been reported in Ohio since the pandemic began, leading to 6,020 (+24) deaths and 24,705 (+282) hospitalizations.

The 11,885 new cases in the past 24 hours represents a record high and the first time there have been over 10,000 reported in a day. But DeWine said the number may be artificially high as two labs — Cincinnati’s Mercy Health and the Cleveland Clinic — failed to report for consecutive days. Both days were added to Monday’s total.

I'm surprised that Ohio (population 11.6 million) has "only" 6,000 deaths. Here in South Carolina (population 5.1 million) we're closing in on 4,000 deaths (3,987 as of today). Maybe Ohio's number isn't low comparatively; maybe South Carolina's is just too darn high. *sigh*

Other stats for South Carolina today:

For 14th time this month, S.C. reports more than 1,000 new COVID-19 cases
"The number of new cases has come in at more than 1,000 for 11 out of the last 12 days."

194,902 confirmed positive cases (+1,095)
3,987 confirmed deaths (+5)
Percent Positive - 10.7% (lowest percent positive since October 18 when it was 10.3%)

 

[dixiegirl1035]

In full: Boris Johnson gives Downing Street press conference as local COVID restrictions are unveiled

Winter plan to carry through the end of March.....

ETA: listening to, he is not even shown on the feed as must still be on quarantine, only audio..... akward for the guy for 40 minutes staring into space...

and just 5:00 into it... he says he'll give such information later this week... not today. (40 minutes so far as to presser... I'm behind).. he just said at 6:00 timestamp...."things will look and feel very different after Easter" (e.d. Deja Vu)

 

[SouthAussie]

Talk about a super spreader event- take a look at the airports- thousands of people obviously do not care about contracting the virus (believe of course it won't be them or it will be "nothing" or like the flu), and are selfish to the point of not caring if they spread it, if they do have it. It is clear all messaging is lost on these people.

Part of the problem is the way messaging is being conveyed: so i am watching MSNBC and the anchor says the CDC recommends we don't travel- then she shows video of the airports with massive crowds- I am thinking about this anchor "what is wrong with you- how can you sit there and tell people that CDC recommends not traveling when you can see thousands are not listening." It is a robotic message- What she should say is , if she was not reading from a teleprompter is: It is obvious you people out there are not listening to the message from the CDC- do you understand what you are doing? a percentage of you have the virus already and you are spreading it to those around you and you will give it to your mom, grandma and grandpa- that is a given- what is wrong with you? That is what she should say. And then Dr. Torres comes on as her guest and he says "well, i can understand why people are traveling- it is a holiday"- REALLY- YOU UNDERSTAND--then he blabs about well, if you are traveling, wear a mask, social distance, blah blah blah---- Useless information. will fall on deaf ears.

I agree ... I might even go so far as to say the whole problem is the messaging.

Yes, the US was precariously placed to deal with any pandemic - after the warning systems were removed, and the pandemic playbook was scrapped. But the messaging is terrible.

"DON'T TRAVEL FOR THANKSGIVING"
"Ooh, look at all the people cramming the airports. They look fine. If they are all doing it, why not?"

And, let's not forget one other important detail. The airlines are throwing on all these flights for this extensive travel.

When China just locked down Shanghai airport to test everyone, they cancelled 277 flights. The only reason that the western world knows this is because all of a sudden there was absolutely no Shanghai air traffic on flight tracker.

Here's a pic of the flight traffic in the US right at this moment.



Flightradar24: Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map

 

[HongKongPhooey]

In full: Boris Johnson gives Downing Street press conference as local COVID restrictions are unveiled

Winter plan to carry through the end of March.....

ETA: listening to, he is not even shown on the feed as must still be on quarantine, only audio..... akward for the guy for 40 minutes staring into space...

and just 5:00 into it... he says he'll give such information later this week... not today. (40 minutes so far as to presser... I'm behind).. he just said at 6:00 timestamp...."things will look and feel very different after Easter" (e.d. Deja Vu)

Yes what we need to know on Thursday, is which Tier our local areas will be in. Press rumour has it though that most areas will be Tier 2 or 3.

 

[SouthAussie]

Yes what we need to know on Thursday, is which Tier our local areas will be in. Press rumour has it though that most areas will be Tier 2 or 3.

Have your numbers been significantly improving?
Do you think there is leeway to allow this 5 day Christmas shopping spree?

I am losing track of how the UK is doing. I only know at this point that my UK cousin hasn't seen her UK parents for months and months, and they live relatively close.

 

[CoverMeCagney]

Have your numbers been significantly improving?
Do you think there is leeway to allow this 5 day Christmas shopping spree?

I am losing track of how the UK is doing. I only know at this point that my UK cousin hasn't seen her UK parents for months and months, and they live relatively close.

Yes, the lockdown seems to be working and we’re coming down from the peak of our second wave. However, the timing couldn’t really be worse and I dread to think what January will look like.

I don’t know what the answer is, when trying to simultaneously save lives and salvage the economy, but I’m not sure this is it.

 

[HongKongPhooey]

Have your numbers been significantly improving?
Do you think there is leeway to allow this 5 day Christmas shopping spree?

I am losing track of how the UK is doing. I only know at this point that my UK cousin hasn't seen her UK parents for months and months, and they live relatively close.

Same here SA. Mine are 10 mins drive and I last saw them weeks ago, and that was on their driveway dropping some winter bedding plants off.

Its not a 5 day shopping spree. It's supposedly to visit family, but further guidelines will be issued re vulnerables. Shops re-open on 3rd.

Covid-19: PM sets out 'tougher' post-lockdown tiers for England

This article explains about the Tiers. The idea is if you are in 2 or 3, there's no indoor mixing but this will be lifted in some way over Christmas.

It says there are 15,450 cases recorded today. Some areas are still rising. London is apparently easing. ETA - as Cags says though, overall numbers are coming down.

My area is 132 cases per 100,000.

Where is your family SA (roughly ofc), are they doing ok?

 

[SouthAussie]

As coronavirus cases spike, a national group that represents thousands of evangelical Christian doctors and other healthcare providers is asking churches to stop holding services in person.

In a statement provided to NPR, titled, "A Plea to Our Churches," leaders of the Christian Medical & Dental Associations say that Christians who persist in holding large gatherings at this time could "appear to care only about our individual freedoms and don't care that we may be contributing to others getting this illness because of our selfishness."

The statement, prepared for release on behalf of the group's 20,000 members nationwide, also says that the group is "saddened to learn not only that many churches have ignored our guidelines but that congregants have become infected with SARS-CoV-2 as a result of those decisions."

Evangelical Doctors' Group Pleads With Churches To Stay Home

 

[SouthAussie]

Same here SA. Mine are 10 mins drive and I last saw them weeks ago, and that was on their driveway dropping some winter bedding plants off.

Its not a 5 day shopping spree. It's supposedly to visit family, but further guidelines will be issued re vulnerables. Shops re-open on 3rd.

Covid-19: PM sets out 'tougher' post-lockdown tiers for England

This article explains about the Tiers. The idea is if you are in 2 or 3, there's no indoor mixing but this will be lifted in some way over Christmas.

It says there are 15,450 cases recorded today. Some areas are still rising. London is apparently easing. ETA - as Cags says though, overall numbers are coming down.

My area is 132 cases per 100,000.

Where is your family SA (roughly ofc), are they doing ok?

My UK family are in Kent. About 45 mins drive from the borough of Swale, where things are pretty bad (2nd highest rate in England).

They are okay. There are much loved grandchildren who are missed, but they are a pretty sensible lot.