Found Deceased IN - Abigail (Abby) Williams, 13, & Liberty (Libby) German, 14, The Delphi Murders 13 Feb 2017 #133

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mekeritrig said:
Saw this posted elsewhere concerning just how rare stranger-involved kidnappings of young children are.

"According to an estimate from the federal Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention (OJJDP), there were just 105 "stereotypical kidnappings" in America between late 2010 and late 2011, the last period for which we have data. (For reference, there were about 73.9 million children in America that year.) Just 65 of these kidnappings were committed by strangers. Less than half involved the abduction of a child under age 12. Only 14 percent of cases were still open after one week, and 92 percent of victims were recovered or returned alive."
​
Using this data as a baseline, there might be somewhere around 30 young children abducted by strangers per year in the US. What are the odds in a country of 325+ million people that someone capable of abducting a child they don't know and attempting to murder them would be living so close to another similar violent crime against children? It would seem to be extraordinarily unlikely given the rarity of such criminal behavior. It would be quite a coincidence to have multiple predators of this type operating in one area.
Click to expand...

It's a coincidence that definitely happens though. Look at the Evansdale case in Iowa. There was not one but TWO other offenders in the same area who were abducting children who were strangers to them; one of which was apparently preferentially abducting pairs of girls! The abductor of pairs was ruled out as the abductor of the Evansdale victims. I don't know if the other offender was officially covered but like some of the previous persons of interest in Delphi, Iowa LE don't seem to be looking at him very hard anymore.

With regard to JBC, he may or may not have been a stranger to the 9 year old victim. If they were neighbors, and he was aware of her identity (even if she was not aware of him), that is usually not considered a "stranger abduction" in DOJ statistics. IMO
 
JnRyan said:
:):):)
Click to expand...

Jumping off above discussion re above mileage:
22.7, and 24.9 from@Lmustang89 ’s map (Google Maps)

OMGGGG, I just thought of something...remember my “magic numbers”?? :eek::eek: How did this not strike me before?
(I guess since I haven’t analyzed any data, as I’m still fetching it.)

Holy cow...per quick search on google, not exhaustive (some refers to disposal, but still, I have have commented on this wrt awareness space as well, etc.)
Found Deceased - FL - Gage Jackson, 19, Punta Gorda, Charlotte County, 19 Mar 2019
“@margarita25, here is your magic number again. 22.7 miles ...”

Identified! - CO - Remains Found at Oil and Gas Site, Weld County, Jul'19. Jonelle Matthews
“First thing is to read up on Jonelle’s case, which I had planned to do anyway today. As I mentioned earlier, I was not familiar with her case until yesterday when @kaimentioned her, but as soon as I saw the mileage and route I knew it looked practically perfect for a disposal ( @PommyMommy, did you see that? 21 miles! Almost the “magic number 22”!”

CO - CO - Suzanne Morphew, 49, did not return from bike ride, Chaffee County, 10 May 2020 #42
“Marg... I’ve been meaning to ask you, what’s that magic number I’ve seen you suggest in other missing persons cases? You’ve been pretty spot on in some, but I can’t remember the number! Thanks!”

“Thanks for remembering.

22-28 miles/minutes.

This is dependent on certain case factors, often random abductions, SA’s, etc. I’m not sure I would go with that formula here. I haven’t really dug in yet, but from I what I understand, there is a wide possible timeline? Still trying to get situated around the facts. Also, this terrain is a different beast. I’m actually working on a distance mileage time radius thingy.”

Found Deceased - FL - Gage Jackson, 19, Punta Gorda, Charlotte County, 19 Mar 2019
“@margarita25, here is your magic number again. 22.7 miles ...”
Click to expand...

(ETA, strange coincidence, imo - reminds me of “Eau Claire” in Jayme’s case, remember that, @human, @Jax49, @gregjrichards...I wasn’t referencing the street, but still...)
 
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sandy_80 said:
he was lucky in aspects but

a violent murder in daylight .. he was fully prepared and left undetected while others were arriving on the scene
but the detail that is most important here.. is the SCENE .. he left signatures that made multiple agencies including the FBI scratch their heads ..something that made them think he is in the SK category, is that your average offender ?
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mekeritrig said:
Saw this posted elsewhere concerning just how rare stranger-involved kidnappings of young children are.

"According to an estimate from the federal Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention (OJJDP), there were just 105 "stereotypical kidnappings" in America between late 2010 and late 2011, the last period for which we have data. (For reference, there were about 73.9 million children in America that year.) Just 65 of these kidnappings were committed by strangers. Less than half involved the abduction of a child under age 12. Only 14 percent of cases were still open after one week, and 92 percent of victims were recovered or returned alive."
​
Using this data as a baseline, there might be somewhere around 30 young children abducted by strangers per year in the US. What are the odds in a country of 325+ million people that someone capable of abducting a child they don't know and attempting to murder them would be living so close to another similar violent crime against children? It would seem to be extraordinarily unlikely given the rarity of such criminal behavior. It would be quite a coincidence to have multiple predators of this type operating in one area.
Click to expand...

IMO, the occurrence of non-family child abduction and DOUBLE homicide must surely be very rare. In addition, I believe that the staging of homicide scenes is also rare. How unusual must it be to have 2 similar cases with both features?

I have not found stats that I can link, but if anyone else finds them, please share.
 
CrimeAway said:
IMO, the occurrence of non-family child abduction and DOUBLE homicide must surely be very rare. In addition, I believe that the staging of homicide scenes is also rare. How unusual must it be to have 2 similar cases with both features?

I have not found stats that I can link, but if anyone else finds them, please share.
Click to expand...
This is why it freaked me the heck out when MJK (Klunder) was ruled out in Lizzie & Lyric’s case, after abducting two girls in Iowa, Kathlyn Shepard, whom he killed, the other little girl escaped, thankfully. I have never been comfortable with that rule out and wish we knew more.
 
JnRyan said:
As a avid and regular cyclist with WELL over a 100K RECORDED miles, I have serious doubts about his LONG bike rides. My definition of a long bike ride is anything over 30-40 miles. Riding around the block 4-5 times instead of 1 or 2....Nah.
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Oh I agree.

Idk that I’d count on him being able to do a 20 miler in the hills of southern Indiana, but I do think he was capable of a 20 miler (even each way) on the flat conditions of Delphi region.

It’s not like he couldn’t stop between points to rest and recover. Right?
 
margarita25 said:
That was the one that had the camper there, right? In the yard? I think I remember a camper pic.



Hey OBE, will we’ve got you on the line, can you please take a look at this slug and give me your impressions. I haven’t looked at it or studied it yet, still in robot mode, trying to bag and tag stuff before it goes poof, tia

@oceanblueeyes
Bullet pic
July 18, 2018
Facebook

eta: @@carbuff, whatcha think?
Inside red vehicle
March 9, 2017
Brian Chadwell
Click to expand...

I took a look at the FB page, and saw the bullet. It is not a slug; slugs look different. The bullet is inert as shown in the picture. It appears to be a 9mm bullet - hard to tell caliber without a physical examination - that is copper plated. This bullet has either been pried from a complete cartridge, which would have had a brass/metal case with a primer and gunpowder inside, or it could have been recovered from a fired round. A fired bullet can be recovered intact if it is fired into something very soft, but usually they are deformed after hitting a solid surface. It could also be a loose bullet that is used by reloaders - people who make their own ammunition from components. The picture in FB is bizarre...
 
margarita25 said:
Jumping off above discussion re above mileage:
22.7, and 24.9 from@Lmustang89 ’s map (Google Maps)

OMGGGG, I just thought of something...remember my “magic numbers”?? :eek::eek: How did this not strike me before?
(I guess since I haven’t analyzed any data, as I’m still fetching it.)

Holy cow...per google:
Click to expand...
Okay, that is just all creepy. Spooky. What are the odds?
 
Kudzu said:
New to this case, and pardon me for asking a basic question. What was the source of the artist renderings? Video or witness? And why did the original rendering change?
Click to expand...

LE never really told us the exact reason except to say that new information/evidence had come to light. For the record, the second rendering was created only 3 days after the girls' murders.

Although I have not been an active poster, I have followed this case from the beginning. None of the previous POIs had me feeling the way I do now. Chadwell checks all of the boxes. I pray that they have their man.
 
CNYDarkStar said:
Indeed, one of my first thoughts. However looking closer there is something else going on inside that jacket. There appeared to be distinct lines of something hard and a very strange poof coming out of the top.
Click to expand...
I have always wondered what that white stuff is at the neck of his jacket. It looks like a white supermarket bag (well, when we had such things).
 
Yemelyan said:
It's a coincidence that definitely happens though. Look at the Evansdale case in Iowa. There was not one but TWO other offenders in the same area who were abducting children who were strangers to them; one of which was apparently preferentially abducting pairs of girls! The abductor of pairs was ruled out as the abductor of the Evansdale victims. I don't know if the other offender was officially covered but like some of the previous persons of interest in Delphi, Iowa LE don't seem to be looking at him very hard anymore.

With regard to JBC, he may or may not have been a stranger to the 9 year old victim. If they were neighbors, and he was aware of her identity (even if she was not aware of him), that is usually not considered a "stranger abduction" in DOJ statistics. IMO
Click to expand...
BBM. That surprises me.
 
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