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I'm not seeing the ramp either. The speed limit on that road is likely only about 15 mph. She'd likely have just sunk into mud at that speed. On the other hand, if her rate of speed was fast enough to make any appreciable distance the splash likely would have been heard from the official campers at the campground. You really can't hit the water hard in a 3,500 lb car without making a sound. jmoHeadlights would reflect off the water though?
And if Kiely left around the same time as the others, it seems odd to me she would have driven into the lake from the ramp without anyone noticing. I don't think it would have been as dark at that time--based on an estimate of the amount of vehicles in the area, and cumulative light pollution from same--as people are theorizing.
She may still have driven her car into the lake, but the ramp seems unlikely to me.
Headlights would reflect off the water though?
And if Kiely left around the same time as the others, it seems odd to me she would have driven into the lake from the ramp without anyone noticing. I don't think it would have been as dark at that time--based on an estimate of the amount of vehicles in the area, and cumulative light pollution from same--as people are theorizing.
She may still have driven her car into the lake, but the ramp seems unlikely to me.
Also does anyone know the sky conditions? It is dark in the woods but you'd be surprised how much just the moon can illuminate the areaHeadlights would reflect off the water though?
And if Kiely left around the same time as the others, it seems odd to me she would have driven into the lake from the ramp without anyone noticing. I don't think it would have been as dark at that time--based on an estimate of the amount of vehicles in the area, and cumulative light pollution from same--as people are theorizing.
She may still have driven her car into the lake, but the ramp seems unlikely to me.
If loud music was still booming and kids were yelling, carrying on, I think it could have been a quiet splash, if any. Not like the car was dropped from the air and perhaps even if someone did hear a splash, they may have thought it was the partygoers doing god knows what.I'm not seeing the ramp either. The speed limit on that road is likely only about 15 mph. She'd likely have just sunk into mud at that speed. On the other hand, if her rate of speed was fast enough to make any appreciable distance the splash likely would have been heard from the official campers at the campground. You really can't hit the water hard in a 3,500 lb car without making a sound. jmo
Good point. Also, if She left about the same time as several others, she surely would have noticed that they all exited in the same direction, and it seems unlikely that she would have turned in the other direction, and ended up in the water, JMO
Helpful post. Yes that's what I think many of us locals are trying to say. Yes, there are some areas of thick brush and some embankments, but not as many or the way people who don't live here seem to be thinking.I think this is likely as well, but there's a few obvious questions...
If KR were driving the most direct route back to the Lost Trail Lodge and she went off the road, I think she would have been found by now. The road from the campground to 89 is highly trafficked, it does not have steep embankments.
If she made it to 89 and turned left (south), there are some embankments on both sides, but it's my understanding this area has been searched extensively.
If she made it down 89 to I-80, she'd go west for a couple of exits. I-80 for these couple of exits isn't remote, and has concrete barriers on both sides of the road. I think it's safe to say she didn't crash here.
That leaves the Donner Pass Road exit she would have taken to Cold Stream Rd. I mentioned this in my previous post. The sheriffs were searching this area today. I also searched this area. I went from the exit all the way to the lodge. This area is "wooded" but our definition of wooded in Tahoe is not like the rest of the country. I've attached a photo I took today. We don't get much rain here. We don't have thick foliage like you have in New England or the south. It's mostly large trees and some smaller manzanita bushes. It's not like a car could drive 30 feet off the road to be never seen again. You'd see it.View attachment 360112View attachment 360113View attachment 360114
You'd think, right? But think about the frequency that impaired drivers forget to turn their headlights on, especially if it is well lit when you leave your parking spot? And as I posted up thread, the quarter moon had set by 12:26am. It was dark!Headlights would reflect off the water though?
And if Kiely left around the same time as the others, it seems odd to me she would have driven into the lake from the ramp without anyone noticing. I don't think it would have been as dark at that time--based on an estimate of the amount of vehicles in the area, and cumulative light pollution from same--as people are theorizing.
She may still have driven her car into the lake, but the ramp seems unlikely to me.
Also does anyone know the sky conditions? It is dark in the woods but you'd be surprised how much just the moon can illuminate the area
Up thread I linked to a moon rise / set report. It was a quarter moon the night of 8/5. The moon set at 12:26pm on 8/6.Also does anyone know the sky conditions? It is dark in the woods but you'd be surprised how much just the moon can illuminate the area
I think this is typical of many boat launches in the U.S., based on my experience fishing and launching boats.Prosser boat ramp that is a normal paved road straight into the water in the middle of nowhere View attachment 360252
Except the moon set at 12:26am on 8/6 in LA (my initial link). And at 12:21am on 8/6 in Tahoe with this updated link. Moonrise, Moonset, and Moon Phase in South Lake TahoeLooks like a couple days past 1/4 moon. There would have been a fair amount of moon light.
As to weather. I don't live there, however, the weather data from Truckee (could be different at the camp ground) looks like it was foggy.
So, it looks to be really dark, and possibly foggy.Except the moon set at 12:26am on 8/6 in LA (my initial link). And at 12:21am on 8/6 in Tahoe with this updated link. Moonrise, Moonset, and Moon Phase in South Lake Tahoe
definitely saw a LE post saying they were using cadaver dogs. The searches have been extensiveNot to be the morbid one in the group but its been a long time for her to be out there with no food, if say she were lost or hurt somewhere. Perhaps some cadaver dogs should be introduced to the search, I have not seen any mention of them in this case but again I could have missed it and if so my apologies. These dogs have amazing noses, they can detect even a few drops of blood even if buried under cement as well as decomposition many many years later on land an in water. At least maybe a clue of where she is not, or where she is. All I'm saying is it couldn't hurt to try anything at this point nearly 2 weeks later.
rbbmI was assuming she left when everybody else did. Is there a chance she attempted to sleep in the car and then decided to leave latter.
I though I saw an earlier post that someone went to sleep in their car and stated that the Honda was still there at that time. Also, her friends thought she was camping there.
if she was driving after 11, driving others under 20 and drinking alcohol or more at 16, i dont think she will only drive 15 mph at all times there. when i think of ppl leaving the party there is usually a fair amount of peeling out.I'm not seeing the ramp either. The speed limit on that road is likely only about 15 mph. She'd likely have just sunk into mud at that speed. On the other hand, if her rate of speed was fast enough to make any appreciable distance the splash likely would have been heard from the official campers at the campground. You really can't hit the water hard in a 3,500 lb car without making a sound. jmo
Not with the possibility of drink/drugs and a party with strangers playing a part.Wondering if at this point circumstances can be narrowed down to only two possibilities....terrible accident or some psycho took her.