Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #13

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markoid said:
LE have clearly stated today (and again) that NB did not leave the area. And that no other persons entered the area. I struggle with how that could not be any clearer? They have admitted that they'll keep other lines of inquiry open, but are still working on the basis NB did not leave the area, ergo is in the water.
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Argh I don't understand why this is so confusing for everyone. All I am saying is *we don't know* whether she left or not, because there is no CCTV covering *her* usual exit. Ergo, had she left, we'd be none the wiser.

The police are saying she is most likely in the river, and whilst I agree that eventuality is *quite* likely, it is not necessarily true just because we don't have CCTV of her leaving. We don't have CCTV of her leaving *because we don't have CCTV*.

In the first few days, I also thought her being in the river was most likely, but this is where 3 weeks later, the lack of body and/or any evidence IMO decreases the likelihood she went in, and increases the likelihood she left voluntarily.

I hadn't wanted to speculate but since it's proving so hard for everyone to understand I will highlight just *some* of the possibilities given we haven't found her in the river:

1. She decided to leave, walked back along the river path, crossed the road, back onto river path the other side and took her life in a remote field.

2. She decided to leave, and has completed a 'Darwin's Canoe' (Google if you don't know)

3. She decided to leave, and is living with a friend/family/lover

I'm not saying any individual option is *likely*, I am saying that given the options are infinite, the combined probability is pretty close (or more than!) the river option for which we HAD no evidence, and still have no evidence. So I just wanted LP to say what gave them reason to speculate the river as opposed to every other infinite possibility for where she could be.

Hope that clears things up for you.
 
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PeggyHenry said:
The police were informed she had a number of specific vulnerabilities.. does that mean they take it as a given? I’m hoping that whilst they would take this information into account that they get that backed up medically or from a number of sources. I remain firmly of the belief this was not a tragic accident.
This is a physically fit mother who is able to take care of her appearance and hold down a job.
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They need corroboration for a vulnerable/high-risk status, but they will also seek to ensure the corroboration is solid/proven (ie medical/official/historical etc).
 
Kor_Phaeron said:
If she had epilepsy, I'm not sure she'd be permitted to drive. However, it did cross my mind that perhaps she has some form of terminal cancer. This would certainly fit within 'vulnerabilities' as well as explain the Marie Curie post on her SM as well as the general lack of SM interaction over the last few months. A brain tumour could certainly trigger some kind of change of behaviour/seizure which could result in NB entering the river either intentionally or otherwise. It may also be why the particular 'vulnerability' has never been made public - I suspect that if a diagnosis was relatively recent, they probably haven't informed the children yet.
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I have a family member who didn't know they had epilepsy until their first seizure in their 30s - could have had a first one. Also allowed to drive if seizure free for long enough

Epilepsy and driving

You must tell DVLA if you've had any epileptic seizures or blackouts - download the correct form to let them know
www.gov.uk www.gov.uk
 
ADMIN NOTE:

LE has now indicated that NB was deemed high risk "following the information that was provided to the police by her partner Paul and based on a number of specific vulnerabilities that we were made aware of" LE themselves have opened up speculation in regard to personal reasons NB may have disappeared.

Additionally, a reporter has indicated they are aware of what those vulnerabilities are, so we do now know they exist. The fact that LE has specified they exist but is not addressing them further is certainly not going to discourage speculation as to what may have happened. Had they said nothing in that regard, it would be status quo here at WS, but based on their comments, we are opening up discussion of the possibility that NB may have disappeared voluntarily or possibly committed suicide.

Discussion and speculation of what those vulnerabilities may consist of or what they may have resulted in (i.e. voluntarily missing or suicide) is allowed but at all times members must remain respectful and refrain from unnecessary graphic details of what you think may have happened.

Any questions, please use the Report feature to ask and we will try to get back to you as soon as possible.
 
Mo100 said:
Sky News has just read out the statement from police. She was suffering with alcohol & menopause issues.

I completely sympathise with this. I am a similar age to her with severe menopause symptoms & it can be awful for some women.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1625913534331617284
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This explains why the police are so adamant she fell in the river. <modsnip: not victim friendly>
 
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Lucy6226 said:
This explains why the police are so adamant she fell in the river. <modsnip>
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We obviously know very little about Nicola's exact circumstances but I do know from first hand experience that alcoholics can hide their intake very well. <modsnip - quoted post was snipped>

(edited to correct spelling)
 
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We now know NB had significant issues with alcohol, and that police and ambulance were called to her and PA's house on Jan 10. Together with PA's description of NB's behaviour on the morning of her disappearance being different to usual, it sadly doesn't appear her disappearance was foul play or an accident. A tragic situation all around.
 
katykat said:
We obviously know very little about Nicola's exact circumstances but I do knew from first hand experiences that alcoholics can hide their intake very well. <modsnip>
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Yeah absolutely and she might have been drinking down there, had very little prior to the school run. Either way, poor Nicola and am so sorry for her family.
 
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Missing mother Nicola Bulley had "some significant issues with alcohol" brought on by struggles with the menopause, police have said.

The 45-year-old went missing on 27 January during a riverside dog walk in St Michael's on Wyre.

Lancashire Police said Ms Bulley had been considered a high-risk missing person from the start of the investigation into her disappearance.

The force said it was called to a concern for welfare at her home last month.

www.bbc.co.uk

Nicola Bulley: Missing mother had alcohol issues, police say

The mother's problems with drinking were brought on by her struggles with the menopause, police say.
www.bbc.co.uk
 
Interested_But_Confused said:
We now know NB had significant issues with alcohol, and that police and ambulance were called to her and PA's house on Jan 10. Together with PA's description of NB's behaviour on the morning of her disappearance being different to usual, it sadly doesn't appear her disappearance was foul play or an accident. A tragic situation all around.
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Oh my. That's not good. I wonder if there was a domestic dispute, what with the police being called as well. I wonder if the neighbours called the police? Or even PA himself? Oh dear.

The poor children are really having a terrible time and it's not fair on them. They're at the age where they know what's going on too, and you can't pretend.
 
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