Please correct me if I'm wrong, but she was referring to the first few days of the search, I believe.
When I read her post, I thought she meant that it appeared as if LE in the first couple days had 'decided' what they thought happened. I took it to mean that LE thought he did indeed run away and a real search as they would do for a child they suspected was abducted, or was harmed wouldn't be necessary... Their thinking in the first few days is well-documented in regard to them saying they believed he was a run-away.
I didn't take her comment to mean that LE immediately suspected MR, or that there was anything involving the lake whatsoever - especially not that in the first days of the search that he was indeed in the lake and just decided to wait until Spring...
As I recall the immediate searches were to look for clues along the roadway, and that would actually indicate that at that time they believed MR's hypothesis that he left the house of his own accord. Even when parents insist their child has not run away, sometimes LE still treats it that way - especially with teens.
All of the theories, and suspicions about the Lake itself has come way after the fact that police announced they no longer believed it was a case of DR running away, and that they had declared it officially a criminal investigation.
I'm just jumping in here because I actually think you are both on the same page, and don't even realize it perhaps...
