OH OH - Brian Shaffer, 27, Columbus, 1 April 2006 - #3

[CARIIS]

Have you not read any of the previous posts on this issue?

These articles are food for thought:

Missing DJ's body found in nightclub

Missing Man Found in Chimney 27 Years Later

Questions Remain 3 Years After Woman's Body Was Found Inside LA Hotel's Rooftop Water Tank

Body of Missing Farmington Hills Woman Found

Missing Texas Woman Found Dead in Air Duct

https://nypost.com/2015/09/30/body-of-18-year-old-missing-for-7-years-found-in-chimney/

https://nypost.com/2018/05/03/man-who-got-stuck-in-wall-crawled-into-his-own-tomb/

Man's body found stuck between walls of Clover flea market

ty!

only the cecil hotel one which was mental illness

as far as we know brian as far as we know was not psychotic a burglar ,a sexual offender which are what the others appear to be moo

but we must take things in entirety as far as we can

if cops did not lay out case as outlined above this would be missing drunk man never seen

the body inside a club was only fermented by the accounting for everyone by supposedly the only exit which is not the case, ! that is very important and just makes no sense!!

In addition the nonsense that he was not seen on any camera elsewhere happens all the time years later when cctv is far more sophisticated

finally the area is crime ridden it was first night of spring break ( desire to jump kids with money) and the alleyway he would have in all likelihood headed is creepy as heck !!

 

[neesaki]

ty!

only the cecil hotel one which was mental illness

as far as we know brian as far as we know was not psychotic a burglar ,a sexual offender which are what the others appear to be moo

but we must take things in entirety as far as we can

if cops did not lay out case as outlined above this would be missing drunk man never seen

the body inside a club was only fermented by the accounting for everyone by supposedly the only exit which is not the case, ! that is very important and just makes no sense!!

In addition the nonsense that he was not seen on any camera elsewhere happens all the time years later when cctv is far more sophisticated

finally the area is crime ridden it was first night of spring break ( desire to jump kids with money) and the alleyway he would have in all likelihood headed is creepy as heck !!

Please excuse me, but sometimes I can be a little dense...so regarding the third paragraph from the bottom, what body was fermented in a club, or what exactly happened s that about? No doubt I could be misunderstanding something. TU !

 

[XPh]

as far as we know brian as far as we know was not psychotic a burglar ,a sexual offender which are what the others appear to be moo

You are suggesting that these sorts of accidents, which have been well documented over and over again, can only occur to people who are "psychotic, a burglar, a sex offender" etc. That's quite a leap. Even if for some reason that was true (which is questionable), I certainly think it's possible that Brian was under the influence of drugs and/or disoriented. This could certain explain Clint's silence too. At a minimum we know he was drinking.

In addition the nonsense that he was not seen on any camera elsewhere happens all the time years later when cctv is far more sophisticated

I would strongly disagree that this "happens all the time." Can you cite other cases where there was only one PUBLIC exit in which the person in question is seen entering but not exiting?

finally the area is crime ridden it was first night of spring break ( desire to jump kids with money) and the alleyway he would have in all likelihood headed is creepy as heck !!

At no point have you answered the important question of what you think happened to the body, his phone, his wallet, or ANY trace of Brian. You really think that some shady characters just had a "desire to jump kids with money" and hid his body so cleverly that not one shred of evidence was found? Despite widespread national coverage?

It's like you keep making the same argument over and over, but you've done nothing to explain the major holes in it. Where's the body? Why would the police exaggerate their statement about Brain and the other patrons being accounted for? It's like you're trying to make this argument fit your narrative honestly, IMO.

 

[CARIIS]

Please excuse me, but sometimes I can be a little dense...so regarding the third paragraph from the bottom, what body was fermented in a club, or what exactly happened s that about? No doubt I could be misunderstanding something. TU !

imo the cops planting the seed that he never left turned this into a different thing

 

[CARIIS]

You are suggesting that these sorts of accidents, which have been well documented over and over again, can only occur to people who are "psychotic, a burglar, a sex offender" etc. That's quite a leap. Even if for some reason that was true (which is questionable), I certainly think it's possible that Brian was under the influence of drugs and/or disoriented. This could certain explain Clint's silence too. At a minimum we know he was drinking.



I would strongly disagree that this "happens all the time." Can you cite other cases where there was only one PUBLIC exit in which the person in question is seen entering but not exiting?



At no point have you answered the important question of what you think happened to the body, his phone, his wallet, or ANY trace of Brian. You really think that some shady characters just had a "desire to jump kids with money" and hid his body so cleverly that not one shred of evidence was found? Despite widespread national coverage?

It's like you keep making the same argument over and over, but you've done nothing to explain the major holes in it. Where's the body? Why would the police exaggerate their statement about Brain and the other patrons being accounted for? It's like you're trying to make this argument fit your narrative honestly, IMO.

the first one that comes to mind is Joey - he was in a bustling downtown area and not one business camera caught him

I was only referencing the cases poster linked!

My core narrative is he left the bar -- what happened after that is like any other missing cases!

Noone has Ryan cell phone and stuff tons of these missing persons no checking account used, wallet found , cell phone located etc etc that is one core piece of amany of the missing people cases we discuss here -- that is the situation more often than not on that angle

there were several exits why do they have to be public??

there are fire laws -- it was in a mall the cops declaration that there was only one way out of a huge complex is imo ludicrous nor true!! pics posted earlier

the notion of matching up every human that went in and out on really horrible video . going down with faces the other way would then have to be they used clothing for the matches

if two 5 5 dudes got on the little escalator followed by two football players the two smaller guys would be out of view of the camera -- kinda like lost in a crowd on a tiny darkly lit grainey video pretty far fetched

again that declaration takes into a whole different orbit that is all I am saying!! He left the building and then ?

IMO

 

[XPh]

the first one that comes to mind is Joey - he was in a bustling downtown area and not one business camera caught him

I was only referencing the cases poster linked!

My core narrative is he left the bar -- what happened after that is like any other missing cases!

Noone has Ryan cell phone and stuff tons of these missing persons no checking account used, wallet found , cell phone located etc etc that is one core piece of amany of the missing people cases we discuss here -- that is the situation more often than not on that angle

there were several exits why do they have to be public??

there are fire laws -- it was in a mall the cops declaration that there was only one way out of a huge complex is imo ludicrous nor true!! pics posted earlier

the notion of matching up every human that went in and out on really horrible video . going down with faces the other way would then have to be they used clothing for the matches

if two 5 5 dudes got on the little escalator followed by two football players the two smaller guys would be out of view of the camera -- kinda like lost in a crowd on a tiny darkly lit grainey video pretty far fetched

again that declaration takes into a whole different orbit that is all I am saying!! He left the building and then ?

IMO

Joey Labute's case doesn't support your argument whatsoever. I asked you to provide an example of a case where there was one public entrance/exit, and a person is seen using it to enter but NOT seen using it to exit. Joey WAS seen on camera leaving, so I don't know how this could support your notion that this "happens all the time." But since you brought up Joey, it's worth noting that he WAS seen leaving AND his body turned up thereafter--that is what usually happens when one leaves an establishment and then meets harm; they are seen leaving and their body eventually turns up, NEITHER of which happened in Brian's case!! I will ask a second time--can you cite other cases where someone is seen on camera entering an establishment but not leaving it?

It matters that there was one exit that was public, because why would he go any other way? Everyone used the same entrance/exit including Brain himself earlier that evening. It would be VERY ODD for him to use any other exit, and your theory that he just decided to make some strange exit AND he just happened to meet foul play AND there's incredibly no body or no sign of him whatsoever strings together multiple unrelated events. It's WILDLY coincidental, and while it is of course possible, the unlikelihood comes from how many conditions would need to be met for this theory to be true. Understanding this argument requires a basic understanding of probability theory, which from your posts I am not sure that you possess.

Also, the other exits from the building were under surveillance (which Brian wasn't seen on), except the construction area.

Brian is easy to identify on videos we have all seen. Law enforcement had access to much more footage than us, and they are TRAINED TO DO THIS. They stated, unequivocally, that Brian did not leave via the escalator or the fire exit. Yes, he could have headed to the construction area--we certainly agree on that, but not what happened afterwards.

There is no reason to doubt LE's ability to do their job, and they've come forward with these statements. You can't just ignore it and write it off. It's counterproductive. It's ludicrous to suggest that the police have clumsily misled the public, particularly in such a widely publicized case.

 

[CARIIS]

220610Joey Labute's case doesn't support your argument whatsoever. I asked you to provide an example of a case where there was one public entrance/exit, and a person is seen using it to enter but NOT seen using it to exit.

I dont know- I have never heard of anyone publicly stating that they have accounted for every human being in a crowded bar on the first night of spring break in a major university city using CCTV equipment that was very poor!


Joey WAS seen on camera leaving, so I don't know how this could support your notion that this "happens all the time."

Joey, like Brian was never seen leaving the bar. He was last seen heading in some direction that might be toward the exit !

But since you brought up Joey, it's worth noting that he WAS seen leaving AND his body turned up thereafter--that is what usually happens when one leaves an establishment and then meets harm; they are seen leaving and their body eventually turns up, NEITHER of which happened in Brian's case!!

There are endless cases where the victim in never ever found while not being inside the building they were last known to be in

will ask a second time--can you cite other cases where someone is seen on camera entering an establishment but not leaving it?

No _ I have never heard anyone declare as unequivocally, totally, without doubt, for sure ,with certainty, absolutely, or conclusively that anyone did NOT exit someplace at some time that had been seen going in! That is the whole issue!


It matters that there was one exit that was public, because why would he go any other way?

We can't be saying that he was so high which would account for a fall in the construction area while ruling out that for the exact same reason why he might have exited from one of the many exits that a sober individual would not typically use!

Everyone used the same entrance/exit including Brain himself earlier that evening.

how do we know this?

It would be VERY ODD for him to use any other exit,

I dont really know if someone is buzzed for someone to do something odd is all that odd actually! !

and your theory that he just decided to make some strange exit AND he just happened to meet foul play AND there's incredibly no body or no sign of him whatsoever strings together multiple unrelated events.


I have never stated that leaving from the other exits is strange - they are exits that is what they are for !! People , daily, do strange things! I have not ruled in or out foul play.

The notion that it is incredible that people totally disappear often is contradicted by 92% of the threads here!

It's WILDLY coincidental, and while it is of course possible, the unlikelihood comes from how many conditions would need to be met for this theory to be true.

Practically all missing cases consist of all these dynamics. That is my problem with him still being is the building!

Understanding this argument requires a basic understanding of probability theory, which from your posts I am not sure that you possess.

You are correct! I despised statistics in grad school and only go through cause I had an incredible professor! Hated it. It was torture total torture.

Also, the other exits from the building were under surveillance (which Brian wasn't seen on), except the construction area.

This is incorrect. THe camera for the emergency exit downstairs is located across the street (subject to rain etc) and was motion activated, One has to ask themselves why someone would be checking , on a regular basis a motion activated camera that has no reason to be checked in that there had not been any emergencies for god knows how long!

I would also assume motion activated back then might have a high a probability to stop being motion activated and no one would notice!

Therefore being able to conclude that one did not exit from a door with such camera can not be stated as fact.

Brian is easy to identify on videos we have all seen.

I cant tell who anyone is in any of the ones I have seen but that could just be me!!

Law enforcement had access to much more footage than us, and they are TRAINED TO DO THIS.

I really am not sure , 11 years ago , there was training needed to watch a TV.

They stated, unequivocally, that Brian did not leave via the escalator or the fire exit.

That is a huge problem imo!

Yes, he could have headed to the construction area--we certainly agree on that, but not what happened afterwards.

There is no reason to doubt LE's ability to do their job, and they've come forward with these statements.

There are many many cases where it is discovered that LE makes many many mistakes .

You can't just ignore it and write it off. It's counterproductive. It's ludicrous to suggest that the police have clumsily misled the public,

I have not implied that they purposely did anything wrong. IMO a statement such as: we have scrutinized the grainy dark video available to us and as far as we can ascertain Brian might have not exited from the one exit we know a video was recording. At this time we can not ascertain if any of the other ways to exit the structure were or were not used to exit the the facility!

moo

 

[CARIIS]

c

 

[itsrak]

The problem with this case is that people are drawn to the nefarious. IMO, they read far too much into Brian's personal life, his body language on CCTV, the other people on the footage, and his friend's cagey behaviour etc. The most logical explanation: that a drunk Brian took a wrong turn and died in the construction site is a dead-end and doesn't stimulate much debate. Unless they use some kind of ground penetrating radar, we'll never know, but I'm fairly sure that's what happened. It fits the circumstances perfectly compared to anything else.

Yup. The simplest explanation in the Brian Shaffer case fits the fact so well:

* Not observed leaving the building like everyone else - because he tried to exit via construction area
* Friends couldn't find him in the bar at closing time - because he was already in the construction area, probably already dead.
* Never used his phone after around 2am - because he died shortly after 2am.
* All calls post 2am went straight to VM - because phone was with Brian under collapsed dirt, and dirt very effectively blocks cell signals.
* Personal belongings never found - wallet contents, clothes, phone - because they are with body
* Never made another financial transaction - because he was dead.
* Was never seen outside the building - because he never left.
* Not caught on numerous cams outside the building - because he never left.
* Murdered body never found - because there was no murder.
* Murderer never snitched on - because there was no murder.
* Body not found post suicide - because there was no suicide.
* Never spotted in Margaritaville - because he never ran to Margaritaville.
* Failed to meet his love for planned special vacay - because he was dead.
* Didn't strangely abandon bro and dad - he was dead.
* Didn't abandon promising career - he was dead.
* Didn't inexplicably end a life filled with promise - drunken Brian met an accidental death in treacherous 'construction area'.
* Body never found - construction area, which lead detective suggests Brian entered, was 'dangerous' and 'completely dug up'. Think piles of loose dirt next to trenches.
* Body never found - dug up areas were paved over not long after Brian disappeared.

 

[CARIIS]

Yup. The simplest explanation in the Brian Shaffer case fits the fact so well:

* Not observed leaving the building like everyone else - because he tried to exit via construction area
* Friends couldn't find him in the bar at closing time - because he was already in the construction area, probably already dead.
* Never used his phone after around 2am - because he died shortly after 2am.
* All calls post 2am went straight to VM - because phone was with Brian under collapsed dirt, and dirt very effectively blocks cell signals.
* Personal belongings never found - wallet contents, clothes, phone - because they are with body
* Never made another financial transaction - because he was dead.
* Was never seen outside the building - because he never left.
* Not caught on numerous cams outside the building - because he never left.
* Murdered body never found - because there was no murder.
* Murderer never snitched on - because there was no murder.
* Body not found post suicide - because there was no suicide.
* Never spotted in Margaritaville - because he never ran to Margaritaville.
* Failed to meet his love for planned special vacay - because he was dead.
* Didn't strangely abandon bro and dad - he was dead.
* Didn't abandon promising career - he was dead.
* Didn't inexplicably end a life filled with promise - drunken Brian met an accidental death in treacherous 'construction area'.
* Body never found - construction area, which lead detective suggests Brian entered, was 'dangerous' and 'completely dug up'. Think piles of loose dirt next to trenches.
* Body never found - dug up areas were paved over not long after Brian disappeared.

as outlined above this was a major police investgation (as told by cops) have any crime pics of this trecherous construction area ever been released?

Was amyone if lawsuit america ever sued for this trecheroues contratuction site killing Brian

When sonsturction crews arrived that monday are we to assume that LE never contacted anyone on the consturction site to inform them they have a missing person pls be aware of what you are doing there might be a dead person somewhere in here?

Investigators knew it was possible that the cameras at the Ugly Tuna might have missed him as one camera panned across the area, while the other was operated manually.

the shores and near the bridges of the Olentangy River, which flows through Columbus adjacent to the OSU campus and is about one mile from Brian’s apartment

might this be similar to the dozens and dozens of white early 20;s collage students out drinking with friends near bodies of water who have gone missing closing time ? some have shown up many have not

Was this comprhensive and complete investigation (that might not have any pics of this dangeroues site, left open next to a bar for a a huge amount of drunk people to congreate fail to interview the last two people who saw Brain alive on CCTV?

With all this sparkling clear CCTV video would it be hard for these skilled investigators to identify these last people who interacted with Brian/ They asked others to take lie detectives why would this comprehensive investigation not do so>

The two women Brian had last been seen talking to were later identified in 2009 and claim that they had never been asked to take the test.

Why is this statistic ignored

The neighborhood around South Campus Gateway was known at the time to be a high crime area.

just discovered another exit door ugh oh employee entrance that had no security cameras.

Might we consider some partying having some party drugs on him and getting mugged for possible drugs in this busy high crime area? Might trying to go to the band 5 minutes before closing be drug score related?

finals stimulants often used dad concerned he looked wiped ( the crash from stimulants ) speculating

I did not recall that there was lots of bodies of water near that area might that mirror the many many instances of drunk men at closing with their cell phones etc never used and never found be more compelling?

I understand that a six foot man buried in a construction site might be more intriguing than another missing man but there are a wide variety of other options that are far more possible and likely like the many many missing men cases throughout the last several decades /



employee entrance that had no security cameras.

Disappearance of Brian Shaffer - Wikipedia

A Guy Walks Into a Bar — and Is Never Seen Again – MEL Magazine





http://charleyproject.org/cases/s/shaffer_brian.html

 

[neesaki]

Joey Labute's case doesn't support your argument whatsoever. I asked you to provide an example of a case where there was one public entrance/exit, and a person is seen using it to enter but NOT seen using it to exit. Joey WAS seen on camera leaving, so I don't know how this could support your notion that this "happens all the time." But since you brought up Joey, it's worth noting that he WAS seen leaving AND his body turned up thereafter--that is what usually happens when one leaves an establishment and then meets harm; they are seen leaving and their body eventually turns up, NEITHER of which happened in Brian's case!! I will ask a second time--can you cite other cases where someone is seen on camera entering an establishment but not leaving it?

It matters that there was one exit that was public, because why would he go any other way? Everyone used the same entrance/exit including Brain himself earlier that evening. It would be VERY ODD for him to use any other exit, and your theory that he just decided to make some strange exit AND he just happened to meet foul play AND there's incredibly no body or no sign of him whatsoever strings together multiple unrelated events. It's WILDLY coincidental, and while it is of course possible, the unlikelihood comes from how many conditions would need to be met for this theory to be true. Understanding this argument requires a basic understanding of probability theory, which from your posts I am not sure that you possess.

Also, the other exits from the building were under surveillance (which Brian wasn't seen on), except the construction area.

Brian is easy to identify on videos we have all seen. Law enforcement had access to much more footage than us, and they are TRAINED TO DO THIS. They stated, unequivocally, that Brian did not leave via the escalator or the fire exit. Yes, he could have headed to the construction area--we certainly agree on that, but not what happened afterwards.

There is no reason to doubt LE's ability to do their job, and they've come forward with these statements. You can't just ignore it and write it off. It's counterproductive. It's ludicrous to suggest that the police have clumsily misled the public, particularly in such a widely publicized case.

I have a question, for you and for Ozoner et al.....
Why is it you are so dead set on this idea he is buried somewhere in the construction site? I really want to know!

Do you guys know something you need to share with LE? ! Otherwise, I’m rather curious why are you so adamant about it, because honestly, it seems far fetched to me, jmo.

Otherwise, then its a theory, right?

So, IMO , I suppose anything is possible, but it’s a less plausible theory than something happening to him after he exited the building. Or, that he left with a plan, purposely on his own.
But admittedly I have very few facts, so just a theory and MOO. Thanks for the Interesting discussion though, stimulates the senses. .

 

[CARIIS]

I have a question, for you and for Ozoner et al.....
Why is it you are so dead set on this idea he is buried somewhere in the construction site? I really want to know!

Do you guys know something you need to share with LE? ! Otherwise, I’m rather curious why are you so adamant about it, because honestly, it seems far fetched to me, jmo.

Otherwise, then its a theory, right?

So, IMO , I suppose anything is possible, but it’s a less plausible theory than something happening to him after he exited the building. Or, that he left with a plan, purposely on his own.
But admittedly I have very few facts, so just a theory and MOO. Thanks for the Interesting discussion though, stimulates the senses. .

I have wondered this as well

jmo i think someone getting jumped in a high crime area is more plausible than someone being left or not found in a commercial building

I think something drug related iis more plausible than someone being left or not found in a commercial building

I think someone drunk falling into a river and vanishing is more plausible than someone being left or not found in a commercial building

I think old video equipment not working correctly is more plausible than someone being left or not found in a commercial building

I think anyone starting a tv screen for hours could miss something is more plausible than someone being left or not found in a commercial building

etc etc

I think the similiarites to so many missing men are astounding

educated in collage

out drinking

with friends

closing time

around water

looks are similar

athletic

liked

family system appear connected

have people who care about them (opposed to prostitute etc_

heavy searches

media coverage

no money spent

no cell phone located

going to VM

keys never found

none of this is coincidences they are chains of events that have lots in common that result in one basic end missing and gone

the old cliche if it looks like a duck......might be a lot more possible than someone not being found after huge searches in a building


and really as far as true crime goes in reality we could be talking about an MO not all of course but there certainly is a possibility some are connected

compare bodies found in buildings 25 years later could it happen of course but the similarities are just present

 

[Satch]

as outlined above this was a major police investgation (as told by cops) have any crime pics of this trecherous construction area ever been released?

Was anyone if lawsuit America ever sued for this treacherous construction site killing Brian

When construction crews arrived that Monday, are we to assume that LE never contacted anyone on the construction site to inform them they have a missing person pls be aware of what you are doing there might be a dead person somewhere in here?

Investigators knew it was possible that the cameras at the Ugly Tuna might have missed him as one camera panned across the area, while the other was operated manually.

the shores and near the bridges of the Olentangy River, which flows through Columbus adjacent to the OSU campus and is about one mile from Brian’s apartment

might this be similar to the dozens and dozens of white early 20;s collage students out drinking with friends near bodies of water who have gone missing closing time ? some have shown up many have not

Was this comprehensive and complete investigation (that might not have any pics of this dangeroues site, left open next to a bar for a a huge amount of drunk people to congregate fail to interview the last two people who saw Brain alive on CCTV?

With all this sparkling clear CCTV video would it be hard for these skilled investigators to identify these last people who interacted with Brian/ They asked others to take lie detectives why would this comprehensive investigation not do so>

The two women Brian had last been seen talking to were later identified in 2009 and claim that they had never been asked to take the test.

Why is this statistic ignored

The neighborhood around South Campus Gateway was known at the time to be a high crime area.

just discovered another exit door ugh oh employee entrance that had no security cameras.

Might we consider some partying having some party drugs on him and getting mugged for possible drugs in this busy high crime area? Might trying to go to the band 5 minutes before closing be drug score related?

finals stimulants often used dad concerned he looked wiped ( the crash from stimulants ) speculating

I did not recall that there was lots of bodies of water near that area might that mirror the many many instances of drunk men at closing with their cell phones etc never used and never found be more compelling?

I understand that a six foot man buried in a construction site might be more intriguing than another missing man but there are a wide variety of other options that are far more possible and likely like the many many missing men cases throughout the last several decades /



employee entrance that had no security cameras.

Disappearance of Brian Shaffer - Wikipedia

A Guy Walks Into a Bar — and Is Never Seen Again – MEL Magazine





http://charleyproject.org/cases/s/shaffer_brian.html

Good stuff!

However, note that Wikipedia is usually not a good source of information, because, while moderated OK, it can be edited by anyone.

Satch

 

[Ozoner]

I have a question, for you and for Ozoner et al.....
Why is it you are so dead set on this idea he is buried somewhere in the construction site? I really want to know!

Do you guys know something you need to share with LE? ! Otherwise, I’m rather curious why are you so adamant about it, because honestly, it seems far fetched to me, jmo.

Otherwise, then its a theory, right?

So, IMO , I suppose anything is possible, but it’s a less plausible theory than something happening to him after he exited the building. Or, that he left with a plan, purposely on his own.
But admittedly I have very few facts, so just a theory and MOO. Thanks for the Interesting discussion though, stimulates the senses. .

Why are we focused on burial or entombment in the construction site? Logic. It is a theory, but it's the only plausible one given the known facts.

Other posters and I have provided you with multiple examples of deaths within buildings remaining undiscovered for years, and we've even mentioned several ways that such a death could have occurred in Brian's case, yet the theory still seems far-fetched to you? Really? That tells me that you're making a deliberate choice not to use logic so that you can continue to cling to the happy ending that you prefer to believe in.

The idea that Brian ran off and is living his life, playing guitar on some Caribbean island, is silly. You can call that a theory, but it might be more apropos to call it a fantasy--pure wishful thinking.

An unattended death in the construction area concomitant with inadvertent concealment of the body is far and away the most likely scenario.

 

[CARIIS]

RE:
The idea that Brian ran off and is living his life, playing guitar on some Caribbean island, is silly. You can call that a theory, but it might be more apropos to call it a fantasy--pure wishful thinking.

I have never bought this Jimmy Buffet silliness or wanting to start a new life.

Folks who go through getting a seat in grad school are pretty darn committed to their career path.
Someone mentioning that they would like to be on some island with a cocktail does not translate to (after two years) of this is not the career I want.

My deal is he left the building.

If we are going to look at probabilities, however, we must look at some numbers:

Number of people who died inside a structure never to be seen again: 4,231 (made up)

Number of people who left last known location never to be seen again:

Compare . Contrast.

Your with me!

By the numbers: Missing persons in the USA

 

[neesaki]

Why are we focused on burial or entombment in the construction site? Logic. It is a theory, but it's the only plausible one given the known facts.

Other posters and I have provided you with multiple examples of deaths within buildings remaining undiscovered for years, and we've even mentioned several ways that such a death could have occurred in Brian's case, yet the theory still seems far-fetched to you? Really? That tells me that you're making a deliberate choice not to use logic so that you can continue to cling to the happy ending that you prefer to believe in.

The idea that Brian ran off and is living his life, playing guitar on some Caribbean island, is silly. You can call that a theory, but it might be more apropos to call it a fantasy--pure wishful thinking.

An unattended death in the construction area concomitant with inadvertent concealment of the body is far and away the most likely scenario.

But wait, you left out the first theory I mentioned , which is him exiting the building and something happening to him after. I don’t know what, could have been... a mugging turned violent, a run in with the wrong persons, bad drugs or drugs combined with a lot of alcohol, a drug deal gone wrong, a pick up / date with someone who turns out to be a a psycho who targets guys like him..... If he did make it out of the area we don’t know where he headed after that. Did he walk, was he picked up or did he get a ride, did he make it home and something happened there? ... there are several possibilities.

Yes, I would like to find out he had left on his own and is alive and happy somewhere, but I also realize it’s not as likely as something happening to him and he is no longer with us.

According to the detective his scent was tracked to an area outside of the UT building, the Wendy’s parking lot wasn’t it? If so can we more or less safely assume he did make it out at least to that point? Actually, I’m quite curious about this and wonder if you all could weigh in on this, I.e., do you believe this information is credible? And if not why not. TIA.

 

[itsrak]

According to the detective his scent was tracked to an area outside of the UT building, the Wendy’s parking lot wasn’t it? If so can we more or less safely assume he did make it out at least to that point? Actually, I’m quite curious about this and wonder if you all could weigh in on this, I.e., do you believe this information is credible? And if not why not. TIA.

I had posted quite some time ago about stats showing sniffer dogs to not be very reliable. This dog you reference can, obviously and unfortunately, not tell us if he was, X number of day's following Brian's disappearance, on Brian's scent, sniffing his way to a Wendy's burger, etc.

To me, case facts suggest that Brian never left the building. Turns out, there was within mere feet of Brian's last known location, a construction site deemed treacherous, and the lead investigator suggests that Brian entered that construction area, which the detective noted was 'completely dug up'. The lead investigator also suggests that Brian exited the construction area. Maybe. But give that he was never seen again, I doubt it. To me, Brian's having met an accidental death in the construction area, while seemingly unlikely, is the least unlikely of all of the unlimited potential scenarios.

 

[Deleted member 155000]

I'll just quickly add to this conversation that the articles at the time, some of which are cached and still discoverable, quote dedicated officers who reviewed the security footage frame by frame and could account for the exit of every other person who entered except for Brian. And like someone just said, they did acknowledge there was a chance that a panning camera which could be controlled by security guards could have create a blind spot during the time when Brian left. But that explanation does lower the probability bc it forces us to believe that not only was Brian the only one who escaped view of the camera, but he's also the only one who disappeared never to be seen again.

The early articles also quote the original police team members who reviewed the construction site and they discussed it as being difficult to walk through, but did not judge it to be in a stage of construction that would result in a concealed body. So I personally believe Brian may have intentionally left on the down low (late, with a staff person or band member etc.) and then come into harm's way. If he DID meet his death inside the building, I would lean toward the manager/owner/staff etc. intentionally covering it up to reduce their liability rather than him accidentally falling into some non-existent space that concealed him from the dogs they brought through.

I still think Clint knows more about why Brian may have left unexplainably or quickly, even if he does not know for sure what happened to Brian.

 

[Deleted member 155000]

According to the detective his scent was tracked to an area outside of the UT building, the Wendy’s parking lot wasn’t it? If so can we more or less safely assume he did make it out at least to that point? Actually, I’m quite curious about this and wonder if you all could weigh in on this, I.e., do you believe this information is credible? And if not why not. TIA.

I do remember hearing the Wendy's parking lot bit, but I think it was mentioned by one of the people involved (Brian's dad or former gf) rather than being reported by police or media at the time.

There was also the suggestion from Brian's dad that his phone at some point months later appeared to temporarily ring and, when triangulated, it pinged as if someone had turned it on in a nearby part of Ohio. It was never conclusively said whether this could be a glitch in the network vs. someone discovering/maintaining the phone somewhere and turning it on.

 

[Zoomy]

I do remember hearing the Wendy's parking lot bit, but I think it was mentioned by one of the people involved (Brian's dad or former gf) rather than being reported by police or media at the time.

There was also the suggestion from Brian's dad that his phone at some point months later appeared to temporarily ring and, when triangulated, it pinged as if someone had turned it on in a nearby part of Ohio. It was never conclusively said whether this could be a glitch in the network vs. someone discovering/maintaining the phone somewhere and turning it on.

Hi, this is my first post on this case. I only heard about it for the first time in April (I live in the UK). I think he was intent on getting lucky that night. His girlfriend was away for the weekend, if it is true he was planning to propose, maybe he thought that weekend was his last chance to have a bit of fun as 'a single man' so to speak. I recently read a reply on a you tube video on this case, and a girl left a reply saying that she was one of the women that Brian was speaking to outside the bar, and he had offered to walk them to their car. She has not said much more than that, but I am assuming they refused. I also noticed on the CCTV one of the women appears to point down the escalator, possibly, as if to say our car is just outside, meaning there is no need for him to walk with them. This leads me to think, did he then try to follow them out, but left by a different exit, as he didn't want to be seen by the other men and security, following them, if they had refused his offer. Maybe he thought if he caught up with them and persisted, they would give in and maybe offer him a lift. This could possibly tie in with his scent being found in the Wendy's car park, if this is where their car was parked.