Found Deceased IN - Abigail (Abby) Williams, 13, & Liberty (Libby) German, 14, The Delphi Murders 13 Feb 2017 #121

[rosesfromangels]

I'm thinking about cyclical behavior this morning.
To the best of knowledge, we haven't seen another attack that seems closely similar since the children were murdered in 2017.

For those of you who have studied SK's, have the experts observed particular patterns of behavior as far as frequency, timing, triggers, geographic patterns, etc.? Are these Perp's random killing machines, or have we learned anything about predictive modeling/triggers?

I'm wondering what the Perp has been doing since 2017. Has he continued to offend at some level such as assaults, or other criminal behaviors? Is he traveling around assaulting, or staying in a particular region?

If any of you have studied this, please chime in. I'll see if I can find anything about predictive modeling of SK's. I'm interested in this for another case I am following as well, where the POI is known, but seems to be acting like a choir boy.

Amateur opinion and speculation

 

[Ozoner]

I'm thinking about cyclical behavior this morning.
To the best of knowledge, we haven't seen another attack that seems closely similar since the children were murdered in 2017.

For those of you who have studied SK's, have the experts observed particular patterns of behavior as far as frequency, timing, triggers, geographic patterns, etc.? Are these Perp's random killing machines, or have we learned anything about predictive modeling/triggers?

I'm wondering what the Perp has been doing since 2017. Has he continued to offend at some level such as assaults, or other criminal behaviors? Is he traveling around assaulting, or staying in a particular region?

If any of you have studied this, please chime in. I'll see if I can find anything about predictive modeling of SK's. I'm interested in this for another case I am following as well, where the POI is known, but seems to be acting like a choir boy.

Amateur opinion and speculation

All I have is anecdotal info. The Green River Killer and BTK are a couple of SKs who sent dormant for years. They're not the only ones...the Golden State killer comes to mind...the Grim Sleeper...

I think there's too much variability to draw any conclusions.

 

[rosesfromangels]

All I have is anecdotal info. The Green River Killer and BTK are a couple of SKs who sent dormant for years. They're not the only ones...the Golden State killer comes to mind...the Grim Sleeper...

I think there's too much variability to draw any conclusions.

In the cases you mention, how long did they sit dormant, and do we have any idea if there was a trigger that got them to reoffend such as an anniversary date of sorts, or? Any info you have studied would be interesting. TIA.

 

[minazoe]

BTK 's crimes are unspeakable..Israel Keyes is another, took me a long time to finally read the book on him. These two names are role models in the murder culture.

BTK fills me with cold anxiety and I cloud over. I find him unbearable. Both cunning yet hardly intellectual..as all of these losers are deeply disappointing when you scratch the surface and go inside their heads. When you go inside and look around you find them lacking for any kind of revelation or self awareness.

mOO

 

[Ozoner]

In the cases you mention, how long did they sit dormant, and do we have any idea if there was a trigger that got them to reoffend such as an anniversary date of sorts, or? Any info you have studied would be interesting. TIA.

Regarding the Green River Killer, I just found this (on Wikipedia":
"Author Pennie Morehead interviewed Ridgway in prison, and he said while he was in the relationship with Mawson, his kill rate went down, and he truly loved her.[18] Of his 49 known victims, only three were killed after he married Mawson. Mawson told a local television reporter, "I feel I have saved lives...by being his wife and making him happy."[19]
18. "Married to a Monster". Who the (BLEEP) Did I Marry?. Season 1. Episode 9. October 13, 2010. Investigation Discovery. Archived from the originalon October 21, 2010.^
19. "Wife of Nation's Worst Serial Killer Shares Her Story". KIRO-TV. May 22, 2007. Archived from the original on October 20, 2010. Retrieved October 14,2010.

It seems like the Green River Killer started his murder spree after his divorce from his first wife, but he apparently had violent tendencies long before that.

 

[sunshineray]

rosesfromangels, I found this New Yorker article. It's a great read. You might find it helpful for what you're seeking, very informative.

The Serial-Killer Detector

 

[rosesfromangels]

Regarding the Green River Killer, I just found this (on Wikipedia":
"Author Pennie Morehead interviewed Ridgway in prison, and he said while he was in the relationship with Mawson, his kill rate went down, and he truly loved her.[18] Of his 49 known victims, only three were killed after he married Mawson. Mawson told a local television reporter, "I feel I have saved lives...by being his wife and making him happy."[19]
18. "Married to a Monster". Who the (BLEEP) Did I Marry?. Season 1. Episode 9. October 13, 2010. Investigation Discovery. Archived from the originalon October 21, 2010.^
19. "Wife of Nation's Worst Serial Killer Shares Her Story". KIRO-TV. May 22, 2007. Archived from the original on October 20, 2010. Retrieved October 14,2010.

It seems like the Green River Killer started his murder spree after his divorce from his first wife, but he apparently had violent tendencies long before that.

Thank you Ozoner. Interesting. Can you imagine the horror of finding out you were married to an SK? It is interesting to me that having a partner seemed to significantly abate, or slow down the killing spree. I have to think about that. It certainly suggests that they do have impulse control, just choose to ignore it.

Amateur opinion and speculation

 

[rosesfromangels]

rosesfromangels, I found this New Yorker article. It's a great read. You might find it helpful for what you're seeking, very informative.

The Serial-Killer Detector

This is hands down the best article I have read on the topic; THANK YOU. An excerpt, sticking to the 10% rule:

"...“Serial killers tend to stick to a killing field. They’re hunting for prey in a concentrated area, which can be defined and examined.” Usually, the hunting ground will be far enough from their homes to conceal where they live, but not so far that the landscape is unfamiliar. The farther criminals travel, the less likely they are to act, a phenomenon that criminologists call distance decay..."

Amateur opinion and speculation

 

[JnRyan]

rosesfromangels, I found this New Yorker article. It's a great read. You might find it helpful for what you're seeking, very informative.

The Serial-Killer Detector

Very good article. I did note they say it doesn't really work for killers who go a good distance away to kill. If Abigail and Liberty's killer is from, say, 100 to 200 miles away and is killing others this algorithm may not identify the killings as belonging to one person. I just have this feeling that the killer in this case lived or visited Delphi sometime in the past, but now lives quite a distance away now.

 

[Dotrat]

DBM

 

[Dotrat]

Then we should look at bridge hunters site. He should be there. He has to look through many bridges during his daydreaming.

Possibly along with that, railroad/train enthusiast

 

[Charlot123]

In the cases you mention, how long did they sit dormant, and do we have any idea if there was a trigger that got them to reoffend such as an anniversary date of sorts, or? Any info you have studied would be interesting. TIA.

I know about the GRK. He started killing after he came home from being deployed abroad and his first wife left him. It is a theory that one of prostitutes during his deployment have him STD.

Then he started killing. Then he met and married his 2nd wife. She was very much loved by him. She suffered from obesity. They had a child.
He somehow found the money (inherited?) and she had plastic surgery. After that, he went on a killing spree again.
His others break was during his 3d marriage.

 

[Pavelsky]

I think, without walking on a railroad track and with no injuries left to his right knee/leg, nobody would recognize BG's gait now in 2020. In 2017 on video, I guess, it was difficult to recognize and compare too.
The jacket would only be recognized, if BG had this clothing before the double murder and was seen with it or if he borrowed it from a close relative/friend (perhaps never gave it back).
Perhaps the jacket was "bought" (exchanged?) from the gardener? Or from the property caretaker? A person like this wouldn't have the desire, to call the LE-hotline or FBI or whatever about that. MOO

I agree...if this was a jacket that was often worn by the suspect then it would be recognizable to people who know him. But if it was worn one time, destroyed after this event then it is not significant as others would not connect it. I guess I felt that this jacket was one this man liked and was comfortable in...he seems so sure and comfortable and not furtive. IMO

 

[Ozoner]

Thank you Ozoner. Interesting. Can you imagine the horror of finding out you were married to an SK? It is interesting to me that having a partner seemed to significantly abate, or slow down the killing spree. I have to think about that. It certainly suggests that they do have impulse control, just choose to ignore it.

Amateur opinion and speculation

I agree; they can control their impulses, but they don't because they enjoy what they do. I can't recall any names, but I've read that some serial killers and serial rapists will go dormant after being interviewed by police. So they are certainly able to control their impulses in order to keep from getting caught once the police are onto them.

Very good article. I did note they say it doesn't really work for killers who go a good distance away to kill. If Abigail and Liberty's killer is from, say, 100 to 200 miles away and is killing others this algorithm may not identify the killings as belonging to one person. I just have this feeling that the killer in this case lived or visited Delphi sometime in the past, but now lives quite a distance away now.

If BG killed Lyric and Lizzie, maybe he lives roughly equidistant from the two areas. Of course, he may have relocated, or he may have a job that takes him all over the region

 

[rosesfromangels]

I agree; they can control their impulses, but they don't because they enjoy what they do. I can't recall any names, but I've read that some serial killers and serial rapists will go dormant after being interviewed by police. So they are certainly able to control their impulses in order to keep from getting caught once the police are onto them.

If BG killed Lyric and Lizzie, maybe he lives roughly equidistant from the two areas. Of course, he may have relocated, or he may have a job that takes him all over the region

My question would be, what behaviors did the Perp display (aside from murder) during this "inactive" time period that served as a release valve? Were they harming animals, raping, or robbing? I think the behavior would have to transfer and manifest in some other anti-social behavior?

During the non perpetrating time frame did they gamble excessively? Shop excessively? Hyper sexual? Drink excessively? Work out excessively? I think any of these "hyper" behaviors that started unexpectedly after these murders would be, at minimum, a flag.

I have frequently observed that any obsession that is reigned in, may often manifest in another obsessive behavior.

Amateur observations, speculation, and opinion

 

[JnRyan]

Off topic, but I noticed when Abigail and Liberty's page became active here again, my Alerts increased to a noticeable degree. I expected them to increase again with the Covid-19 issues across the country and abroad and folks staying home. They haven't. I hope everyone is taking every possible measure they can to protect themselves.

 

[carbuff]

From what I've read over the years on the cases I've followed--some random thoughts.

Many serial killers kill to relieve some sort of internal tension or distress. Often it's inadequacy, which is why being in a successful relationship can lead to no killings. But when something happens to trigger those feelings, they perceive a need to kill. Something like losing a job, getting dumped, having a parent die can be the trigger. (Interestingly, DN was the only person of the many possibilities we've mentioned for BG who had a pattern of committing offenses in response to stress. And his earlier sexual assaults followed a field pattern, where he'd go 30ish miles from home to find a victim. But it's a common pattern with serial rapists too.)

Some are thrill killers. They get their thrill from the planning, the hunt, the execution of their plans. Israel Keyes seems to have been this kind. He spent months planning some of his crimes.

A common reason for gaps is that the person is in jail, usually for something besides the murders.

Some serial killers go for the sexual thrill. Others feel powerless in their everyday lives and seek to compensate by the power they feel over their victims. It might include rape or other sex crimes, but the point is the control, not the sex itself.

Some killers who travel a lot find their victims wherever they happen to be. Rodney Alcala appears to have been this type. Sam Little. Several suspected truck driver killers.

Just some thoughts that popped into my head...

 

[Ozoner]

From what I've read over the years on the cases I've followed--some random thoughts.

Many serial killers kill to relieve some sort of internal tension or distress. Often it's inadequacy, which is why being in a successful relationship can lead to no killings. But when something happens to trigger those feelings, they perceive a need to kill. Something like losing a job, getting dumped, having a parent die can be the trigger. (Interestingly, DN was the only person of the many possibilities we've mentioned for BG who had a pattern of committing offenses in response to stress. And his earlier rapes followed a field pattern, where he'd go 30ish miles from home to find a victim. But it's a common pattern with serial rapists too.)

Some are thrill killers. They get their thrill from the planning, the hunt, the execution of their plans. Israel Keyes seems to have been this kind. He spent months planning some of his crimes.

A common reason for gaps is that the person is in jail, usually for something besides the murders.

Some serial killers go for the sexual thrill. Others feel powerless in their everyday lives and seek to compensate by the power they feel over their victims. It might include rape or other sex crimes, but the point is the control, not the sex itself.

Some killers who travel a lot find their victims wherever they happen to be. Rodney Alcala appears to have been this type. Sam Little. Several suspected truck driver killers.

Just some thoughts that popped into my head...

I wasn't aware of any rapes committed by DN; I read about the hatchet incident and some previous incidents of peeping and playing with himself in public.

 

[carbuff]

I wasn't aware of any rapes committed by DN; I read about the hatchet incident and some previous incidents of peeping and playing with himself in public.

You're right, I don't think they were actual rapes. I corrected it to sexual assaults.

Still creepy stuff. And I'm thinking the mods deleted my discussion of the details back then, so I probably hadn't better say any more than this.

 

[Ozoner]

You're right, I don't think they were actual rapes. I corrected it to sexual assaults.

Still creepy stuff. And I'm thinking the mods deleted my discussion of the details back then, so I probably hadn't better say any more than this.

Do you think JMW fits the profile? I think he matches the part about looking younger than his actual age. I thought he was in his 20s based on his picture, but then I read that he's 42. He doesn't look like the new BG sketch, though.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/florida-keys/article239397083.html