Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #37

WASHINGTON — President Trump said Thursday that he planned to label different areas of the country as at a “high risk, medium risk or low risk” to the spread of the coronavirus, as part of new federal guidelines to help states decide whether to relax or enhance their quarantine and social distancing measures.

“Our expanded testing capabilities will quickly enable us to publish criteria, developed in close coordination with the nation’s public health officials and scientists, to help classify counties with respect to continued risks posed by the virus,” Mr. Trump said in a letter to the nation’s governors.

Trump Says He Will Label Regions by Risk of Coronavirus Threat
One would have to be completely ignorant to think any area of the country right now is anything OTHER than high risk. ANYWHERE.
 
This is what is very worrisome to me.
you get the virus, you get over it, then it comes back?
#1. How does that happen?
#2. Are You now still able to transmit this virus to others?
#3. Is your re-infection, less of more vibrant? Is it a mutation?
#4. Is it a stronger or weaker virus? I have read, stronger.


Blood Test for Coronavirus Immunity

Antibody tests won’t face the same bureaucratic hurdles diagnostic testing initially did. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration relaxed its rules last month, and body-fluid tests can proceed to market without full agency review and approval.

Several private companies have begun selling blood tests for COVID-19 antibodies outside the United States, including California-based Biomerica Inc (BMRA.O) and South Korean test maker Sugentech Inc (253840.KQ).

Biomerica said its test sells for less than $10 and the company already has orders from Europe and the Middle East. Chembio Diagnostics

Inc CMI.O of New York said it received a $4 million order from Brazil for its COVID-19 antibody test, and it plans a study of the test at several sites in the United States.

If testing goes forward on a wider scale, some public health experts and clinicians say healthcare workers and first responders should take priority.

Detecting immunity among doctors, nurses and other healthcare workers could spare them from quarantine and enable them to keep treating the growing surge of coronavirus patients, they say.

It could also bolster the ranks of first responders, police officers and other essential workers who have already been infected and have at least some period of protection from the virus, the experts say.

The Mayo Clinic MAYO.UL in Rochester, Minnesota, researchers are preparing to start a clinical trial in which patients who test positive for COVID-19 would have their blood collected at the time of diagnosis, and again 15 to 20 days after that in the patient’s home.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it is working on its own version of antibody tests, but it has not given a timetable. The agency has said extensive research is underway. One challenge for the CDC and other labs is to get enough blood samples from people who have already been infected to verify the antibody results.

The agency faced heavy criticism for sending a faulty diagnostic test to state and local labs early in the coronavirus epidemic and then taking weeks to fix it. The federal government is still trying to expand diagnostic testing capacity.

False positives are erroneous results that, in this case, could lead to a conclusion that someone has immunity when he or she does not.

“You are likely to have immunity for several months,” said Dr. Stanley Perlman, a professor of microbiology and immunology at the University of Iowa. “We just don’t know. This is an incredibly important question.”

Perlman said many of the new antibody tests coming on the market now may be highly effective, but researchers want to see data to back that up.

U.S. companies, labs rush to produce blood test for coronavirus immunity
 
This is what is very worrisome to me.
you get the virus, you get over it, then it comes back?
#1. How does that happen?
#2. Are You now still able to transmit this virus to others?
#3. Is your re-infection, less of more vibrant? Is it a mutation?
#4. Is it a stronger or weaker virus? I have read, stronger.
I've not seen any data to answer any of your questions. I've seen guesses, but that's not data...
 
Here is what my friend did at Firestone a couple days ago. She wrote down what she needed done, on a post it, with her cell number...and put it on the ignition key---went inside briefly and handed it off.

then she went out to her friend's car--who had followed her there...she waited for their call- they discussed what she needed, 2 back tires, and she sat in car w/friend while they finished her car up.

Then she just had to give them her card number over the phone, and they wrote her receipt and emailed her....she then got in her car and drove home....:)

This plan would require Mrs. 22 to follow you in another vehicle....you could make it a date, like the good ol days...
Bring a homemade picnic (car picnic) lunch with you!
 
OREGON NEWS ROUND UP

Another death and 50 new cases.
Another death from COVID-19 in Oregon, positive cases rise to 316

Oregon’s hospitals could become overwhelmed if current stay-home orders are not followed.
Models show Oregon hospitals could easily be overwhelmed if social distancing isn't followed

This model predicts the last day each state can act before the point of no return

Child abuse reports plummeted after schools closed—no one can watch out for them.

Oregon child abuse reports drop dramatically after schools shut statewide

Some Oregon employers flout stay-home rule

Oregon employers flout stay-home order amid coronavirus outbreak, fueling anxiety and confusion

IN SOUTHERN OREGON’S RURAL COUNTIES (My area)

In Jackson county where I live, a 34 year old father of 4 is hospitalized...the first case of community transmission here.

Medford man says he tested positive for COVID-19 - KOBI-TV NBC5 / KOTI-TV NBC2

Possible COVID-19 exposure on a flight from Seattle to Medford (Jackson County)

Jackson County Public Health looking into possible COVID-19 exposure on flight to Medford

Two more cases in Josephine county for a total of 4.

Two more Josephine County patients test positive for COVID-19

Second Klamath county case is a hospital worker.

Second Klamath County COVID-19 case was Sky Lakes employee, medical center says
 
Wow. Dr Birks is explaining how the numbers aren't corresponding with the models. It seems it won't be as bad as originally thought. Obviously it's bad but I'm hopeful the numbers will be lower than expected.

First projection was 2.2 million deaths in USA, IIRC. We faltered a little in taking steps, but the most populous states have definitely gone into "stay at home" mode. I don't want to get overly optimistic, though, because we are different from the nations that the predictions were modeled on. It's not over yet in Italy - they are stuck at about 700 deaths a day now for several days.
 
On a happy note, our little, 70 seat restaurant in California is receiving so much support!
I sent an email blast out today, asking our community to support all small businesses here.
Mentioning, that it's good for our community as a whole to receive support, through these times, so our small businesses can still be there in the future.
Not only did our customers show up for to go orders, but, some brought bags and bags of fruit.
We have bags, of lemons, oranges and grapefruit all over our kitchen.
Yes, we live in an agricultural town.
Believe it or not, San Diego, California, is much more then our downtown area.
Both Mr. KALI and I, are so grateful.
 
First projection was 2.2 million deaths in USA, IIRC. We faltered a little in taking steps, but the most populous states have definitely gone into "stay at home" mode. I don't want to get overly optimistic, though, because we are different from the nations that the predictions were modeled on. It's not over yet in Italy - they are stuck at about 700 deaths a day now for several days.
In reading this thread, I think I saw that the experts who compiled the report she is basing those new predictions on are saying (in so many words) "she got it wrong." Check back a few pages, I think Henry has the links and quotes. IMO
 
Hong Kong epidemiologist warns pandemic's end may not be straightforward

Dr. Gabriel Leung is an infectious disease epidemiologist and the dean of medicine at The University of Hong Kong. He's also the founding director of the WHO's Collaborating Center for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control. He spoke to The World's host Marco Werman about how the pandemic might end.

Marco Werman: Is having a quarter of the world's population stay home necessary to slow the pandemic?

Dr. Gabriel Leung: Evidently so. The world has hopefully learned from the China response, the South Korean response. You are seeing the differences of government or whole-of-society responses and the outcomes. And that's why I suspect that what some people may have objected to in terms of citywide lockdowns or even countrywide lockdowns, now you see being the de facto response in most populations.

So, there's a constant question, not just here in the US, but everywhere: When will this be over? Are you saying the answer to that question is entirely —
Months, months, months.

Right. And is that dependent on finding a vaccine?
It really depends on what is the attack rate in high-burdened populations which have already gone through a first wave, such as Wuhan, the original epicenter, or in Daegu in South Korea. So, these places, because they had very large outbreaks and they have now come and gone through the first wave, if you then go and lead a sample of the population there, you can measure whether they have been previously infected by looking at the antibody titers (test). And that kind of data is going to allow us to then infer, well, every time it sweeps through a population in a wave, how infectious is it such that we would now have immunity in a certain proportion of that population. And that would then help us predict, well, if and when a second wave comes, how much more of the population it's going to infect and then give immunity to. And then we can sort of gauge that in terms of the vaccine availability timeline.

Hong Kong epidemiologist warns pandemic's end may not be straightforward
 

Ack. Sky Lakes in Klamath Falls is one of the main healthcare providers for my area, for any medical needs more specialized than what our very small local hospitals can provide. I've been there myself, several years ago when I needed a dermatologist to have a suspicious mole removed. I wonder which field this healthcare worker was in.
 
NEW: Germany’s Bosch says it has developed a test for Covid-19 that can deliver a diagnosis in under 2.5 hours, and does not need to be taken to a lab
Developed in just 6 weeks, can also check for nine other respiratory diseases, including the flu, using a single sample.
Darren McCaffrey on Twitter
Now THIS would be AMAZING!
 

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