Found Deceased IL - Jake Cefolia, 49, jogging, car found, SVP of United Airlines, Chicago, 6 Aug 2020

Regarding the dogs stopping 20 yards into a wooded area.. I hope the investigators had the presence of mind to look "up."

Suicide by hanging has been overlooked in cases before, IMO.

They've been in there searching several times. They even went a few months later, when the leaves had fallen from the trees, so it seems pretty likely they would have seen a body hanging over the trail at that time. Also, in the days and weeks after he disappeared, the decomposition of a body would have gotten their attention.
 
Snipped by me - i was thinking about the Sawmill creek running through the park and into the DePage River. Are these waterways that could accommodate an inflatable kayak or something all the way to the Lewis University Airport which (I think is) downriver from where Sawmill and DePage intersect?

I would need to check further on the creek, but from the video posted in the link above, the creek looked very shallow, as in a depth of 6 inches or less. It has some deeper pools. It's always possible, but he would have needed to buy a kayak and transport it there. In the video of him at the nearby gas station, he didn't have a kayak.

Google Maps

I hope they thoroughly searched all the small ponds in that area.
 
Why would someone walk 20 yards into nature, then go back and get into a mystery vehicle? We need a SARs expert to advise - is it more likely he did that or more likely the dogs simply lost the scent though he continued walking into nature?
 
JMO, if the scent ended 20 yards in, what happened? They searched the area and didn't find his body. If the dogs were able to track his scent, and it sounds like they were able, it sounds like he backtracked to the parking lot, got into another vehicle and left. I'm not an expert in this field, but from following other cases, a scent disappears when someone goes into water, gets into an automobile or is removed from the scene in some other way. Humans don't suddenly stop leaving a scent trail.

Absolutely agreed. And it looks like the place the scent trail ends wasn't the edge of a body of water, so unless he was capable of levitating or teleporting - and he doesn't look Kryptonian to me - he probably got in a car. And I think that tells us something.

I'll avoid doxxing the guy but I'll say his home address at the time isn't extremely difficult to find. We can trace an approximate route from his home, to the Shell station, to the traffic camera. He's at the Shell station at 09:19, the traffic camera at 09:23, his neighbor says they think they probably saw his Range Rover leaving his home around noon (I believe the neighbor says they're 60 to 70 percent sure, which isn't conclusive but it's something), then that's all. If the neighbor is wrong, then Jake probably hopped onto 83 after passing the traffic camera, drove down it to Waterfall Glen, then vanished. If the neighbor is right, Jake drove away from the Shell station then did something for two and a half hours that ended with him back at his house, then left his house, then presumably headed for Waterfall Glen, then vanished.

He left his devices at home. His bank accounts and credit cards have been inspected. No mention of charges from a rideshare service or calls to anyone. He had mentioned wanting to go off the grid previously. I suspect the devices were left at home instead of in the car because he didn't want to be tracked between his house and the preserve. Otherwise he'd have left them in the car - that would look more normal than leaving home without your phone or smartwatch.

I lean slightly in the direction of thinking the neighbor is right. If Jake were driving a car he planned to abandon (which is how it looks), I'd expect him to drive directly to the spot. Route 83 picks up right next to his house. He could have driven straight there. Instead, he went a little out of his way to a Shell station near his house, then set off. And if he'd been low on gas, why fill it up just to drive to the preserve? What did sixty bucks get him that five or ten wouldn't, unless he had more driving to do before abandoning the vehicle?

Also, rideshares and taxis would have mandated masks in August of 2020. He had one hanging off the steering wheel. The convenience of location suggests that was the closest and easiest mask to hand, but he left the car without it. I suspect the driver of that car was someone he knew pretty well.

I think he had a pre-arranged pickup with someone. Those two and a half hours are probably when he made some final preparations. I suspect this person knew when to go get him, rather than having him call them to pick him up once he arrived. How far in advance that was arranged, I couldn't say. Whomever that person is, they know where Jake Cefolia is now, alive or dead (I'm not positive which, but if he's alive then he's somewhere within the US, probably somewhere with low-ish population density and I suspect somewhere mountainous). Because here's what I am fairly confident about: The balance of probability indicates he got out of his car and then into someone else's, and no one has come forward to admit to being that person. No indication has been found of him arranging that pickup, yet he plainly did and it plainly happened. Evidence suggests he did not want to be tracked between his house and that pickup spot. He abandoned his car at a place he knew well, a place where there weren't cameras. A warrant was executed at his home the previous day, and it appears tied to an ongoing investigation, and his behavior later that night was of someone very stressed out. Whatever happened the next day on August 7th, I think he did it intentionally.
 
I think he had a pre-arranged pickup with someone. Those two and a half hours are probably when he made some final preparations. I suspect this person knew when to go get him, rather than having him call them to pick him up once he arrived. How far in advance that was arranged, I couldn't say. Whomever that person is, they know where Jake Cefolia is now, alive or dead (I'm not positive which, but if he's alive then he's somewhere within the US, probably somewhere with low-ish population density and I suspect somewhere mountainous). Because here's what I am fairly confident about: The balance of probability indicates he got out of his car and then into someone else's, and no one has come forward to admit to being that person. No indication has been found of him arranging that pickup, yet he plainly did and it plainly happened. Evidence suggests he did not want to be tracked between his house and that pickup spot. He abandoned his car at a place he knew well, a place where there weren't cameras. A warrant was executed at his home the previous day, and it appears tied to an ongoing investigation, and his behavior later that night was of someone very stressed out. Whatever happened the next day on August 7th, I think he did it intentionally.

Snipped by me.
I suppose a related - though opposite - scenario is also possible. That whatever the investigation was about, perhaps Jake met with an alleged co-conspirator in that investigation and that person did something bad to Jake. That could have taken place in the 2 hours and the neighbor may have seen someone else in Jakes car at Jake's house.

All speculation. I'm just trying to come up with scenarios that could be related to the investigation and search warrant that are not going off the grid to start a new life.
 
Here's something else that just jumped out at me. Maybe it means something and maybe it doesn't. Law enforcement were at his home the previous day executing on a warrant to collect something, whatever it was.

When he disappeared the next day, he left behind his Apple watch and a cell phone that was known to be his.

Whatever police did when they showed up on 8/6, he still had those electronic communication devices when they left.

So whatever the investigation was about, they had enough to go on that they believed something pertaining to it was inside his house (or on his person, possibly), but not on his phone. I have a feeling this might suggest something about what the investigation could relate to, but I can't yet see what it is.

It's not unthinkable they had enough to convince a judge to sign a warrant for whatever the other thing was but not the phone, but that too would be pretty strange.
 
Here's something else that just jumped out at me. Maybe it means something and maybe it doesn't. Law enforcement were at his home the previous day executing on a warrant to collect something, whatever it was.

When he disappeared the next day, he left behind his Apple watch and a cell phone that was known to be his.

Whatever police did when they showed up on 8/6, he still had those electronic communication devices when they left.

So whatever the investigation was about, they had enough to go on that they believed something pertaining to it was inside his house (or on his person, possibly), but not on his phone. I have a feeling this might suggest something about what the investigation could relate to, but I can't yet see what it is.

It's not unthinkable they had enough to convince a judge to sign a warrant for whatever the other thing was but not the phone, but that too would be pretty strange.
Great thoughts about them not needing electronics.

Hypothetically, what if the investigation was one brought about by his drunken behavior alleged by his ex wife the night before? Could she have reported this as possibly it impacts her son in some way? An investigation involving a minor would not be public or be able to be discussed by LE, correct?
 
From the article I linked:

The bloodhounds tracked the scent south-east from where the SUV was parked but lost the scent 20 yards in and stopped, according to police reports.

My understanding is that his car was found at class and bluff as mentioned here: Photos of missing United Airlines executive Jake Cefolia’s abandoned car show face mask, clothing item left behind
as shown here:
Google Earth Link


Google Earth
#googleearth

20 yards SE is a bit unclear because it could really just be the parking area.

I took the liberty of creating a map showing 20 yards (60 feet) SE. I think the visual will help you see it’s possible he never made it into the preserve. I would like to know if it’s possible he wasn’t in the car when it was parked? If someone else moved an item of his from his car to another would a dog think that was Jake as his scent would be on it?

And yes, people are carjacked daily without leaving evidence behind. I hope foul play has been given ample consideration. I hope all ex girlfriends, girlfriends and people in the gf’s lives (jealous ex-boyfriends etc) , the one who was the POA, and those involved in the investigation against Jake Cefolia have been investigated.
 

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Absolutely agreed. And it looks like the place the scent trail ends wasn't the edge of a body of water, so unless he was capable of levitating or teleporting - and he doesn't look Kryptonian to me - he probably got in a car. And I think that tells us something.

I'll avoid doxxing the guy but I'll say his home address at the time isn't extremely difficult to find. We can trace an approximate route from his home, to the Shell station, to the traffic camera. He's at the Shell station at 09:19, the traffic camera at 09:23, his neighbor says they think they probably saw his Range Rover leaving his home around noon (I believe the neighbor says they're 60 to 70 percent sure, which isn't conclusive but it's something), then that's all. If the neighbor is wrong, then Jake probably hopped onto 83 after passing the traffic camera, drove down it to Waterfall Glen, then vanished. If the neighbor is right, Jake drove away from the Shell station then did something for two and a half hours that ended with him back at his house, then left his house, then presumably headed for Waterfall Glen, then vanished.

He left his devices at home. His bank accounts and credit cards have been inspected. No mention of charges from a rideshare service or calls to anyone. He had mentioned wanting to go off the grid previously. I suspect the devices were left at home instead of in the car because he didn't want to be tracked between his house and the preserve. Otherwise he'd have left them in the car - that would look more normal than leaving home without your phone or smartwatch.

I lean slightly in the direction of thinking the neighbor is right. If Jake were driving a car he planned to abandon (which is how it looks), I'd expect him to drive directly to the spot. Route 83 picks up right next to his house. He could have driven straight there. Instead, he went a little out of his way to a Shell station near his house, then set off. And if he'd been low on gas, why fill it up just to drive to the preserve? What did sixty bucks get him that five or ten wouldn't, unless he had more driving to do before abandoning the vehicle?

Also, rideshares and taxis would have mandated masks in August of 2020. He had one hanging off the steering wheel. The convenience of location suggests that was the closest and easiest mask to hand, but he left the car without it. I suspect the driver of that car was someone he knew pretty well.

I think he had a pre-arranged pickup with someone. Those two and a half hours are probably when he made some final preparations. I suspect this person knew when to go get him, rather than having him call them to pick him up once he arrived. How far in advance that was arranged, I couldn't say. Whomever that person is, they know where Jake Cefolia is now, alive or dead (I'm not positive which, but if he's alive then he's somewhere within the US, probably somewhere with low-ish population density and I suspect somewhere mountainous). Because here's what I am fairly confident about: The balance of probability indicates he got out of his car and then into someone else's, and no one has come forward to admit to being that person. No indication has been found of him arranging that pickup, yet he plainly did and it plainly happened. Evidence suggests he did not want to be tracked between his house and that pickup spot. He abandoned his car at a place he knew well, a place where there weren't cameras. A warrant was executed at his home the previous day, and it appears tied to an ongoing investigation, and his behavior later that night was of someone very stressed out. Whatever happened the next day on August 7th, I think he did it intentionally.
I’m on the same page as you. As odd as it sounds it makes the most sense to me. Do we know if the credit card he used to buy gas was found at his home with his phone and other items? If it was that would add credibility to the neighbor’s 60-70% certainty that he saw Jake leave his home that afternoon.
 
Why would someone walk 20 yards into nature, then go back and get into a mystery vehicle? We need a SARs expert to advise - is it more likely he did that or more likely the dogs simply lost the scent though he continued walking into nature?
In the recent disappearance of Philip Kreycik in CA, the dogs lost his scent right at the beginning of the trail and he was later found miles from the trailhead. Unfortunately he didn’t make it.
 
In the recent disappearance of Philip Kreycik in CA, the dogs lost his scent right at the beginning of the trail and he was later found miles from the trailhead. Unfortunately he didn’t make it.
I think in Kreycik's case the extreme heat was cited as a reason for dogs losing the scent. With Cefolia, the weather was significantly cooler (mid 80s for a high) so presumably the tracking conditions would have been better.
Chicago, IL Weather History | Weather Underground
 
From the article I linked:

The bloodhounds tracked the scent south-east from where the SUV was parked but lost the scent 20 yards in and stopped, according to police reports.

My understanding is that his car was found at class and bluff as mentioned here: Photos of missing United Airlines executive Jake Cefolia’s abandoned car show face mask, clothing item left behind
as shown here:
Google Earth Link


Google Earth
#googleearth

20 yards SE is a bit unclear because it could really just be the parking area.

I took the liberty of creating a map showing 20 yards (60 feet) SE. I think the visual will help you see it’s possible he never made it into the preserve. I would like to know if it’s possible he wasn’t in the car when it was parked? If someone else moved an item of his from his car to another would a dog think that was Jake as his scent would be on it?

And yes, people are carjacked daily without leaving evidence behind. I hope foul play has been given ample consideration. I hope all ex girlfriends, girlfriends and people in the gf’s lives (jealous ex-boyfriends etc) , the one who was the POA, and those involved in the investigation against Jake Cefolia have been investigated.

Thanks for the map, it's very helpful. It really is a mystery why the scent didn't track very far. As noted in the post above, the weather was favorable that day, and for the next few days, for dogs to be able to track the scent. Not too hot and no rain.

Since there was no blood, no signs of a struggle in the area, it seems most likely he left his own car and got into another car, leaving the area. Leaving his phone at home seems to be another clue. Most people would take their cell phone with them and either put it in a pocket or leave it in the car. Same thing with the Apple watch. Most would carry it with them or wear it while hiking. From the Apple web site, it appears all models of the Apple watch have GPS tracking capability, so that may say something about why it was left behind.

Watch

Foul play, mugging, etc. are possibilities, but the fact he left his cell phone and Apple watch at home is unusual.

It also seemed unusual that he granted power of attorney to allow someone to handle his affairs and complete the sale of his home in his absence. That sounds very much like someone who planned to leave for an extended period of time - one way or another.
 
Great thoughts about them not needing electronics.
rsbm
Great points. I looked up the original report about the search warrant. It's not clear Jake was himself the subject. Could his ex-wife or someone else who may have lived there briefly have been the subject? That could explain him being able to keep the phone.

Jake Cefolia disappearance: United Airlines executive from Elmhurst missing for a year
FOX 32 Chicago has also learned Elmhurst Police executed a search warrant at Cefolia's house on August 6 – the day before he disappeared.

According to the report, evidence was collected and packaged.

Several published reports indicate Cefolia had been the subject of a criminal investigation by Elmhurst Police. Those reports have not been confirmed.
 
Snipped by me - i was thinking about the Sawmill creek running through the park and into the DePage River. Are these waterways that could accommodate an inflatable kayak or something all the way to the Lewis University Airport which (I think is) downriver from where Sawmill and DePage intersect?
Local here. Sawmill creek is very, very shallow, people often just walk in it/let their dogs play in it. Dupage River is definitely accessible by kayak however. I’d argue it’s even frequented by kayaks/boaters, making it unlikely for him to stay hidden long there.
 
Great thoughts about them not needing electronics.

Snipped for brevity.

Whatever the criminal investigation was about, he knew enough to not use any electronic devices while involved in the activity. That’s probably why LE is having a tough time putting it all together. No digital evidence. His alleged criminal involvement goes back far enough to coincide with him talking about going off grid. He knew he was going to get caught, sooner or later. Maybe even blackmailed into the crime. So he starts setting the scene. Cleaning up his affairs. Selling the house. Dropping hints that he wanted to be in the mountains and off grid. Probably stashing money. As an airline employee, he probably was not subject to searches at the airport. I’m guessing the every present drug running scenario. Profits were stashed. No trace of large sums of money disappearing or not being accounted for bc it was cash.
 
Great points. I looked up the original report about the search warrant. It's not clear Jake was himself the subject. Could his ex-wife or someone else who may have lived there briefly have been the subject? That could explain him being able to keep the phone.

Jake Cefolia disappearance: United Airlines executive from Elmhurst missing for a year
FOX 32 Chicago has also learned Elmhurst Police executed a search warrant at Cefolia's house on August 6 – the day before he disappeared.

According to the report, evidence was collected and packaged.

Several published reports indicate Cefolia had been the subject of a criminal investigation by Elmhurst Police. Those reports have not been confirmed.

He knew it was over. Maybe even hastened his departure. I don’t think LE found anything of great value. He was very careful with his actions. But it’s being investigated by local LE. Maybe other LE agencies are involved but not revealed.
 
Was the gas gauge of the car showing completely full when they found it?

One theory above was he gassed up around 9am, but neighbor saw him leaving the house closer to noon, so he may have driven substantially after the gas fillup and before going to the preserve.
 
"Police are investigating after possible human remains were found in the Waterfall Glen forest preserve Friday, authorities said.

DuPage County Forest Preserve Police said they were notified late Friday morning by a contractor in the area that potential human remains had been discovered in the 700-acre forest preserve.

An investigation is underway, but further details weren't immediately released."

Possible Human Remains Found in Waterfall Glen Forest Preserve; Investigation Underway
 
"Police are investigating after possible human remains were found in the Waterfall Glen forest preserve Friday, authorities said.

DuPage County Forest Preserve Police said they were notified late Friday morning by a contractor in the area that potential human remains had been discovered in the 700-acre forest preserve.

An investigation is underway, but further details weren't immediately released."

Possible Human Remains Found in Waterfall Glen Forest Preserve; Investigation Underway
This sounds like it could be Jake.
 

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