It has been raining off and on on Central FL east coast. The intracoastal waterway is getting rough with craft warnings. Expected surf size up to 9 feet by the end of the week. That sound you hear are the surfers yelling "Surf's Up".
2023 Hurricane and Tropical Weather
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PayrollNerd
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It’s raining here!!! A nice steady light rain. Perfect for my garden beds.
PayrollNerd
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A couple rainy & windy areas out there.
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There are two areas being watched by the National Hurricane Center today, the older area has a 50% chance to develop, and has actually dropped in chances, but those in Jamaica, Cuba, and the Turks and Caicos and Southeastern Bahamas should keep watch on that in case it does develop around this weekend.
The other area which is currently making it windy over much of Florida today (and likely a lot of rain later today and tomorrow, especially in South Florida/Keys) likely has a 10% chance to develop once over the Atlantic, but would be moving away from land but could impact areas in New England later. Both are likely fast moving systems, and odds are they won't have long enough to get fully organized. Neither are listed as invest areas at this time.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is associated with a broad trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system begins moving northeastward across the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles through the end of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
2. Offshore Southeast Coast of United States:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop near southern Florida in a day or so. This system is then forecast to move northeastward near the Bahamas and offshore of the east coast of the U.S. late this week and over the weekend. Although development into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely, this system is expected to produce gusty winds and heavy rains across portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas during the next couple of days. For more information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Forecaster Kelly
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There are two areas being watched by the National Hurricane Center today, the older area has a 50% chance to develop, and has actually dropped in chances, but those in Jamaica, Cuba, and the Turks and Caicos and Southeastern Bahamas should keep watch on that in case it does develop around this weekend.
The other area which is currently making it windy over much of Florida today (and likely a lot of rain later today and tomorrow, especially in South Florida/Keys) likely has a 10% chance to develop once over the Atlantic, but would be moving away from land but could impact areas in New England later. Both are likely fast moving systems, and odds are they won't have long enough to get fully organized. Neither are listed as invest areas at this time.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is associated with a broad trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system begins moving northeastward across the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles through the end of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
2. Offshore Southeast Coast of United States:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop near southern Florida in a day or so. This system is then forecast to move northeastward near the Bahamas and offshore of the east coast of the U.S. late this week and over the weekend. Although development into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely, this system is expected to produce gusty winds and heavy rains across portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas during the next couple of days. For more information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Forecaster Kelly
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The 7-day outlook map from the National Hurricane Center:A couple rainy & windy areas out there.
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There are two areas being watched by the National Hurricane Center today, the older area has a 50% chance to develop, and has actually dropped in chances, but those in Jamaica, Cuba, and the Turks and Caicos and Southeastern Bahamas should keep watch on that in case it does develop around this weekend.
The other area which is currently making it windy over much of Florida today (and likely a lot of rain later today and tomorrow, especially in South Florida/Keys) likely has a 10% chance to develop once over the Atlantic, but would be moving away from land but could impact areas in New England later. Both are likely fast moving systems, and odds are they won't have long enough to get fully organized. Neither are listed as invest areas at this time.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is associated with a broad trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system begins moving northeastward across the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles through the end of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
2. Offshore Southeast Coast of United States:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop near southern Florida in a day or so. This system is then forecast to move northeastward near the Bahamas and offshore of the east coast of the U.S. late this week and over the weekend. Although development into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely, this system is expected to produce gusty winds and heavy rains across portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas during the next couple of days. For more information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Forecaster Kelly
PayrollNerd
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Invest 98L being watched in Caribbean as tropical development off Southeast coast remains possible
Hurricane season may end this month, but that’s not keeping the tropics from remaining active.
www.foxweather.com
PayrollNerd
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My aunt and uncle in Sebastian have had nonstop rain, thunder and high winds today.
Only good part is we don't have to add water to the pool.
PayrollNerd
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Potential Tropical Cyclone 22 fizzles before turning into Vince
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two prompted Tropical Storm Watches from the Caribbean to the Bahamas. All alerts have been allowed to expire as the system races through the Atlantic.
www.foxweather.com
PayrollNerd
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HmmMysterious
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The WMO Hurricane Committee didn't retire any Atlantic names, not even Idalia. Though, to be honest, Idalia caused damage that was too light for a hurricane of its strength. The 2023 list will be used again in 2029 without any changes.
WMO Hurricane Committee retires the names Otis and Dora from the eastern North Pacific basin name list
WMO Hurricane Committee retires the names Otis and Dora from the eastern North Pacific basin name list
Puzzles8
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I just read a very interesting article regarding forecasts of the potential 2024 Hurricane season. It explains the effect of Summer La Nina and El Nino pattern of water temperatures based in the Pacific Ocean.
Apparently 2024 is projected to be more active than the 2023 season............
Hoping their forecast is wrong.
JMO
Apparently 2024 is projected to be more active than the 2023 season............
Hurricane season forecast is already looking grim: Here's why hot oceans, La Niña matter
El Niño is fading and could give way to a La Niña, which could be bad news for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season given the warm ocean temperatures.
www.usatoday.com
Hoping their forecast is wrong.
JMO