4 Univ of Idaho Students Murdered, Bryan Kohberger Arrested, Moscow, Nov 2022 #89

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I simulated CAST and it is clearly not too far.

Will the defense say this? I have no idea, but shouldn't the prosecutor be forewarned? How would they counter? Ideas?

Dateline made this claim. I doubt AT would say there was "precious little" evidence found during the investigation if the source of the murder weapon had actually been found. But, yes, we are having to wait until trial to find out for absolute certain.

All IMOO.
I mean the the distance between tower and the library, and the tower and 1122 are too far apart for confusion.
 
No, this would not be his alibi for the murders at all. However, this would be a reasonable explaination as to why his phone pinged near 1122 King Rd 12 times prior to the murders. These are the library's hour during each semester:

Semester Hours​

August 20 - December 15, January 8 - May 10

Monday - Thursday6:00am - 2:00am
Friday6:00am - 8:00pm
Saturday12:00pm - 6:00pm
Sunday12:00pm - 2:00am
That you for the clarification. Although the library wouldn't be too far to hit the same tower, it would be much too far to "touch" their wifi as we have heard happened. I won't go deeper into the cell data, because I'm completely unqualified for that. :)

ETA clarification
 
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I doubt AT would say there was "precious little" evidence found during the investigation if the source of the murder weapon had actually been found

Why do you doubt that? Defense attorneys make this sort of claim all the time.

From the lawyer of the recently-arrested, suspected Long Island/Gilgo Beach serial killer Rex Heuermann:


“The assertions contained in the people’s moving papers might be construed as rising to the level of a reasonable suspicion, but that is a far cry from the standard of probable cause required to justify granting the order sought by the people,” Coysh reportedly wrote, arguing prosecutors didn’t have probable cause to show her client was the killer.
<modsnip: off topic>
 
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Why do you doubt that? Defense attorneys make this sort of claim all the time.

From the lawyer of the recently-arrested, suspected Long Island/Gilgo Beach serial killer Rex Heuermann:




(Weirdly, Rex doesn't have a bunch of people defending him online like BK does.)
MOO the difference is the people that are paying attention to this college crime are in great part a young audience.
MOO they going to be very interested, analytical and open to conspiratorial theories. It's a college ghost story that is getting embellished as time goes on.
 
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I simulated CAST and it is clearly not too far.

Will the defense say this? I have no idea, but shouldn't the prosecutor be forewarned? How would they counter? Ideas?

Dateline made this claim. I doubt AT would say there was "precious little" evidence found during the investigation if the source of the murder weapon had actually been found. But, yes, we are having to wait until trial to find out for absolute certain.

All IMOO.
Maybe you could post your simulated CAST. As far as the prosecutor being "forewarned": you do know that discovery works BOTH WAYS. The defense is responsible to give discovery to the prosecution, the same as the prosecution is responsible to give discovery to the defense. That way, there is no trial by ambush. If the defense knows something the prosecution doesn't know, they would be wasting the taxpayers money not disclosing it. And it would also be illegal for them not to do so. If the prosecution found the "source" of the alleged murder weapon, and I'm certain, disclosed it to the defense, the defense is not going to bring that up, just like they haven't brought up the sheath DNA. The defense hasn't yet argued any EVIDENTIARY facts, due to them being FACTS. IMO JMO
 
<snipped for focus>

I don't see anyone stating that "BK is innocent no matter what". I see posters looking at the evidence from the defense's perspective at times, which is certainly a legitimate exercise.


edited spelling
Exactly, I don't see BK as innocent or guilty. He's just a placeholder in the process. What I see is a prosecution case that is weak and unfortunately incredibly easy to punch holes into. <modsnip: personalizing/rude>

JMO.
 
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Not a cell phone expert either, but I do know that there are way more towers and masts in Moscow than the ones we learned about in the PCA. Many of them would contain information of a ping or attempt at a handshake (even if the phone could not use that tower or mast). I would assume that LE has gotten information from some of those other towers and/or masts.

And I bet they went to that Albertson's in Clarkston (I think it was Clarkston) and tried to get records on whether his phone had any interaction with store wifi (which likely exists). Even if he didn't sign on.

Many of these masts or systems might turn up as dead ends. But the fact that he was seen twice in Clarkston (once by a coffee kiosk clerk and once by cameras at Albertson's) implies that he could have been "seen" a few more times as the investigation rolled on and his face was in the media. He does have a memorable face and bearing, IMO.

IMO. I don't know about UofI's data retention policies, but at many college libraries, they keep the records of whose phones/devices contact their wifi...indefinitely. For good reason, too. People use college libraries for all kinds of nefarious purposes. So, I believe LE would know if his phone reached out to the library on that night of the murders (or perhaps at any other time). Since it appears both universities are fully cooperating with the investigation, I doubt a subpoena would be necessary - and of course, the State would share what it found with the Defense.

My guess is that nothing exonerating was found (crazy of me to guess that, I know - obviously, if something exonerating had been found and BK's phone was near or in the library that night at any time, the Defense would be using that as part of his alibi).

IMO: The CAST analysis will be a key part of this case, as will all forms of documented travel of BK's phone and the same rigor applied to his computer use and searches.
 
Exactly, I don't see BK as innocent or guilty. He's just a placeholder in the process. What I see is a prosecution case that is weak and unfortunately incredibly easy to punch holes into. <modsnip>

JMO.
<modsnip: quoted post was snipped> > I just think it's premature to call the prosecution's case "weak and incredibly easy to poke holes in" when there is a gag order in place and 51GB of discovery that we haven't seen and won't see for months. Possibly not for years, although I certainly hope not.

Being so confident that the State has moved forward with a laughably weak case surprises me, given your earlier statement that LE and the Prosecution are heroes. It also suggests that the judge who signed off on the PCA did not do a good job either. IMO, it's much more like that on such a high profile case, LE and the Judges would have been very careful to at least try and dot every I and cross every T they encountered. Are they perfect? See paragraph 1. Have they done a crappy job? I certainly hope not but, again, see paragraph 1. MOOooo
 
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I believe the Defendant is due to vigorous defense, and he is certainly getting it with AT & Company, but that doesn't mean we should suspend all legitimate explanations as to the State's evidence either.
<snipped for focus>

Agree, we should not suspend information from either side and hear the arguments of both the state and the defense, especially since that is what a jury will be charged to do.
 
That you for the clarification. Although the library wouldn't be too far to hit the same tower, it would be much too far to "touch" their wifi as we have heard happened. I won't go deeper into the cell data, because I'm completely unqualified for that. :)

ETA clarification
If Bk had his phone on during the 12 prior occasions then Imo there will likely be more than just CAST analysis of pings to pinpoint his location. Forensic analysis of BK's phone since arrest may well produce gps data and other application data that shows location in more detail. The only reason the ping data is emphasised so much in PCA is because that was all they had at the time. That data, according to the geo fence warrants, is accurate within half a mile. If BK's phone was on who knows what apps operating in the background have revealed re prior visits to the neighbourhood.Moo. Also my guess is the libary is out for the night in question seeing as how the early morn hours of a Sunday are the focus there. The d should be laughing if he was using the library I would think because wouldn't there be stored surveilance footage to prove it? - I mean late night security would surely call for cameras around the library I would have thought. So that shouldn't be a problem for the D, Imo if he really used it regularly. I do have my doubts however, because I'm taking a guess that investigators for the state probably had a squiz at library footage in the investigation's early days- Jmo.
 
If Bk had his phone on during the 12 prior occasions then Imo there will likely be more than just CAST analysis of pings to pinpoint his location. Forensic analysis of BK's phone since arrest may well produce gps data and other application data that shows location in more detail. The only reason the ping data is emphasised so much in PCA is because that was all they had at the time. That data, according to the geo fence warrants, is accurate within half a mile. If BK's phone was on who knows what apps operating in the background have revealed re prior visits to the neighbourhood.Moo. Also my guess is the libary is out for the night in question seeing as how the early morn hours of a Sunday are the focus there. The d should be laughing if he was using the library I would think because wouldn't there be stored surveilance footage to prove it? - I mean late night security would surely call for cameras around the library I would have thought. So that shouldn't be a problem for the D, Imo if he really used it regularly. I do have my doubts however, because I'm taking a guess that investigators for the state probably had a squiz at library footage in the investigation's early days- Jmo.
BK has already stated through his attorney that he was out driving on the night of the murders <modsnip> So the UofI library would have nothing whatsoever to do with that night.
 
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One thing to remember about the various dna companies is that some offer testing and processing and others don't. Ancestry and 23&Me sell kits and will process/analyze data and produce a profile that is uploaded on their site. That's why they're the most locked-down. Your kit is yours and protected unless there's a successful court order.

GEDmatch and it appears Othram (don't know for sure, just from browsing the Othram site) don't offer testing/processing. You take your already completed profile and willingly upload it to these sites. GEDmatch allows you to compare your dna kit to people who have tested at other sites--like an Ancestry kit vs a 23&Me kit. They have a lot of dna tools as well for more advanced researchers and ancestor projects, etc. At GEDmatch you're given the choice to allow it to be used for law enforcement or not.

Just based on the defense saying they don't intend to call the IGG experts at trial (and common sense) I think the defense will try to steer clear of anything dna related, including IGG. Their only reason for bringing this in now is to get the dna thrown out. Once it's in, they have no reason to challenge any of it at trial. The prosecution didn't use it for the PCA so I doubt they'll bring it in. If the dna isn't thrown out, we likely don't see IGG until appellate unless the defense figures out a way to use IGG to cast doubt on the dna match results. If they're reading this thread, though, maybe they're seeing that could work lol.

Well, let me be 100% honest. They didn't need to stay clear of IGG, but it so happened.

At the horrible CS, LE found DNA that might have been the killer's. What I think happened next - and I am not accusing anything - I am just trying to imagine. Pure imagination.

Owing to GSK group unyielding hard work coupled with no less unyielding self-promotion, GSK is behind bars, but people stopped trusting Gedmatch. TBH, DNA criminology was used before, since early 2000s. But those articles about how the GSK hunters made a profile, loaded into Gedmatch to compare with ours...Predictably, users got scared. All of it was published at the wrong time, too. People got paranoid. Many had strong views about LEO. As the result, Gedmatch's huge comparison database shrank overnight.

Now, several things happened afterwards. Gedmatch used to be an enthusiasts' haven. Now it is bought by some company, it became paid, and you can use it for yourself or you can opt into LE comparison database, too. If you want. Or, you do nothing and it means you opt-out.

I personally opted in. Our police is overwhelmed, our state is known for SKs, some of "DNAs" under my care agreed, some not; given how many people have disappeared here, I think i did the right thing.

Now imagine this. The profile of alleged Idaho 4 killer has been compared to the DNAs opted in. Imagine the hits were so few or so remote, they couldn't work with them. Won't there be a temptation to compare the DNA with the whole database, opted in and out? Surely. Just to see what to do afterwards.

And imagine there is a hit. Meaning, someone bought DNA kit, did all tests, got results, downloaded into Gedmatch, opted out.

It is only my theory.

To remind, the hit is with some relative of a perverse, scary, broken criminal, who killed four people for nothing. And - he was getting Ph.D. in criminology, in my state. Someone we can't even allow to be on the streets because he has smelled the blood. Now LE know who he is, and think they can pull together the case on all other clues. Bypassing the DNA.

Wish them luck, pulling it together. I think the true problem is weak PCA. I hope LE can make a good job of it. They could've done it without DNA, now they need DNA to prove but it is unusable. They'd explain how come, only place in the house, or maybe not only. They'd make a good case. But they can't use the DNA. Why - I don't know. I have one version, maybe it was something else.

Where I think it will all go? This guy - to prison. Eventually. What to do with DNA criminology is a serious issue. Give LEO and FBI group money, have them meet with the Interpol, make a worldwide group. Hire very good lawyers and unify the rules. Talk to people. Explain why. (People here know my views - liberal; but i am tired of the money spent on some a$$... you know, when we probably will see Postcovid rise in suicides, homicides and mental illness). Legalities should be stronger. At the same time, genetic criminology is like fingerprints.

On the mainstream social media, there are questions indicating people never tested themselves. I can't imagine planting DNA in a zip file onto the crime scene, but I can imagine misusing it, potentially, because it is easy to steal someone else's used napkin. This needs to be discussed, eventually.
 
Exactly, I don't see BK as innocent or guilty. He's just a placeholder in the process. What I see is a prosecution case that is weak and unfortunately incredibly easy to punch holes into. <modsnip>

JMO.

IMO, the DNA evidence, if allowed to be presented, will seal his fate.

Think of all the murder cases where they didn't have DNA and still convicted.

Just my opinion.
 
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<modsnip> I just think it's premature to call the prosecution's case "weak and incredibly easy to poke holes in" when there is a gag order in place and 51GB of discovery that we haven't seen and won't see for months. Possibly not for years, although I certainly hope not.

Being so confident that the State has moved forward with a laughably weak case surprises me, given your earlier statement that LE and the Prosecution are heroes. It also suggests that the judge who signed off on the PCA did not do a good job either. IMO, it's much more like that on such a high profile case, LE and the Judges would have been very careful to at least try and dot every I and cross every T they encountered. Are they perfect? See paragraph 1. Have they done a crappy job? I certainly hope not but, again, see paragraph 1. MOOooo

Having been behind-the-scenes on many cases (both criminal and civil, of varying levels of moving toward trial and during trial), I can say that the Judge is key, here. The Judge has *all* the information and evidence from both sides, plus the ability to talk to both sides at will, if he wishes.

His actions tell me that he, as the Judge, thinks this should go to trial. He knows that this is not a case built merely of legal arguments, but that there are actual facts contained in the camera surveillance of the car, the actions of BK's phone, and the presence of BK's DNA at the crime scene.

Juries are the triers of facts. Juries get to decide what to do about going onward to trial.

Further, there are obviously many more facts (including the complete DNA match to the sheath DNA) and the autopsy facts and the footprint analysis, etc. as well as further cell phone data/GPS that must be explained to a jury.

There's no way that Judge Judge is letting this proceed to trial if there are not a strong set of facts.
He had a chance to eliminate the GJ indictment (after review of the proceedings) and therefore, acts exactly as a Judge does in a Preliminary Hearing.

People thinking that the entire case is in the PCA are mistaken (every attempt is made to merely meet the bar of probable cause, not the bar of beyond reasonable doubt. People who think this case is based on the PCA, at this point, do not understand the crucial importance of a trial judge's experience and their access to all facts of the case, not just what will be presented in court.

So the Judge knows what the footprint analysis says; what all the GPS data is; what the autopsies show about the murders - and possibly, the forensic radiology on this case (which could show that the murder weapon was indeed a Ka-Bar, tightening the evidentiary array, IMO).

Instead of relying on endless criticism of the fact pattern of the PCA, it's better to realize that this is now a desperate legal battle between a Defense (who has admitted their client was out driving around that night and therefore are prepared to have the video of the several passes past 1122 King by their client that night...introduced at trial). They are trying an unusual gambit regarding the DNA (and that will almost certain be dealt with by a higher court).

If the Defense decides to file something in federal court, then I predict Bryan Kohberger will be sitting in Latah County Jail, in Moscow, for at least 5 more years. Because federal court is complex, arcane, slow and there are many appeals above the first level (which both sides will available themselves of). Just getting the Attorney General to start the case and getting it docketed would take six months to a year - and then likely 2-3 more years to prepare the briefs (the AG is almost certainly going to refuse to force the FBI to turn anything more over, than what has already occurred - so it would be on toward the Supreme Court, I guess).

Maybe that's the way BK wants this to play out. Certainly keeps him away from the DP - possibly for a decade if they do in fact try to get pre-trial motions into play in federal court.

I wish we had a lawyer to weigh in on whether the trial could proceed under ordinary rules from Judge Judge, while this Defense conducts this parallel process. I'm feeling so sad for the citizens of Moscow, who want Justice as soon as possible and for the victims' families. OTOH, in the end, there will be a trial and I don't think these delays (even if massive) are going to affect the verdict.

IMO.
 
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Well, let me be 100% honest. They didn't need to stay clear of IGG, but it so happened.

At the horrible CS, LE found DNA that might have been the killer's. What I think happened next - and I am not accusing anything - I am just trying to imagine. Pure imagination.

Owing to GSK group unyielding hard work coupled with no less unyielding self-promotion, GSK is behind bars, but people stopped trusting Gedmatch. TBH, DNA criminology was used before, since early 2000s. But those articles about how the GSK hunters made a profile, loaded into Gedmatch to compare with ours...Predictably, users got scared. All of it was published at the wrong time, too. People got paranoid. Many had strong views about LEO. As the result, Gedmatch's huge comparison database shrank overnight.

Now, several things happened afterwards. Gedmatch used to be an enthusiasts' haven. Now it is bought by some company, it became paid, and you can use it for yourself or you can opt into LE comparison database, too. If you want. Or, you do nothing and it means you opt-out.

I personally opted in. Our police is overwhelmed, our state is known for SKs, some of "DNAs" under my care agreed, some not; given how many people have disappeared here, I think i did the right thing.

Now imagine this. The profile of alleged Idaho 4 killer has been compared to the DNAs opted in. Imagine the hits were so few or so remote, they couldn't work with them. Won't there be a temptation to compare the DNA with the whole database, opted in and out? Surely. Just to see what to do afterwards.

And imagine there is a hit. Meaning, someone bought DNA kit, did all tests, got results, downloaded into Gedmatch, opted out.

It is only my theory.

To remind, the hit is with some relative of a perverse, scary, broken criminal, who killed four people for nothing. And - he was getting Ph.D. in criminology, in my state. Someone we can't even allow to be on the streets because he has smelled the blood. Now LE know who he is, and think they can pull together the case on all other clues. Bypassing the DNA.

Wish them luck, pulling it together. I think the true problem is weak PCA. I hope LE can make a good job of it. They could've done it without DNA, now they need DNA to prove but it is unusable. They'd explain how come, only place in the house, or maybe not only. They'd make a good case. But they can't use the DNA. Why - I don't know. I have one version, maybe it was something else.

Where I think it will all go? This guy - to prison. Eventually. What to do with DNA criminology is a serious issue. Give LEO and FBI group money, have them meet with the Interpol, make a worldwide group. Hire very good lawyers and unify the rules. Talk to people. Explain why. (People here know my views - liberal; but i am tired of the money spent on some a$$... you know, when we probably will see Postcovid rise in suicides, homicides and mental illness). Legalities should be stronger. At the same time, genetic criminology is like fingerprints.

On the mainstream social media, there are questions indicating people never tested themselves. I can't imagine planting DNA in a zip file onto the crime scene, but I can imagine misusing it, potentially, because it is easy to steal someone else's used napkin. This needs to be discussed, eventually.

I don't remember people saying the PCA was weak at the time. You have an interesting post here to say the very least. I think they put in the bare minimum because of the circumstances that relate to the gag order. They wanted to put in just enough, holding back critical elements. JMOO
 
<snipped for focus>

I don't see anyone stating that "BK is innocent no matter what". I see posters looking at the evidence from the defense's perspective at times, which is certainly a legitimate exercise.


edited spelling
Completely agree it's legitimate to explore reasonable explanations for the various elements of the PCA. Personally, I tend toward skeptical until I see everything laid out at trial, especially when I can think of reasonable explanations.

<modsnip>
 
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Well, let me be 100% honest. They didn't need to stay clear of IGG, but it so happened.

At the horrible CS, LE found DNA that might have been the killer's. What I think happened next - and I am not accusing anything - I am just trying to imagine. Pure imagination.

Owing to GSK group unyielding hard work coupled with no less unyielding self-promotion, GSK is behind bars, but people stopped trusting Gedmatch. TBH, DNA criminology was used before, since early 2000s. But those articles about how the GSK hunters made a profile, loaded into Gedmatch to compare with ours...Predictably, users got scared. All of it was published at the wrong time, too. People got paranoid. Many had strong views about LEO. As the result, Gedmatch's huge comparison database shrank overnight.

Now, several things happened afterwards. Gedmatch used to be an enthusiasts' haven. Now it is bought by some company, it became paid, and you can use it for yourself or you can opt into LE comparison database, too. If you want. Or, you do nothing and it means you opt-out.

I personally opted in. Our police is overwhelmed, our state is known for SKs, some of "DNAs" under my care agreed, some not; given how many people have disappeared here, I think i did the right thing.

Now imagine this. The profile of alleged Idaho 4 killer has been compared to the DNAs opted in. Imagine the hits were so few or so remote, they couldn't work with them. Won't there be a temptation to compare the DNA with the whole database, opted in and out? Surely. Just to see what to do afterwards.

And imagine there is a hit. Meaning, someone bought DNA kit, did all tests, got results, downloaded into Gedmatch, opted out.

It is only my theory.

To remind, the hit is with some relative of a perverse, scary, broken criminal, who killed four people for nothing. And - he was getting Ph.D. in criminology, in my state. Someone we can't even allow to be on the streets because he has smelled the blood. Now LE know who he is, and think they can pull together the case on all other clues. Bypassing the DNA.

Wish them luck, pulling it together. I think the true problem is weak PCA. I hope LE can make a good job of it. They could've done it without DNA, now they need DNA to prove but it is unusable. They'd explain how come, only place in the house, or maybe not only. They'd make a good case. But they can't use the DNA. Why - I don't know. I have one version, maybe it was something else.

Where I think it will all go? This guy - to prison. Eventually. What to do with DNA criminology is a serious issue. Give LEO and FBI group money, have them meet with the Interpol, make a worldwide group. Hire very good lawyers and unify the rules. Talk to people. Explain why. (People here know my views - liberal; but i am tired of the money spent on some a$$... you know, when we probably will see Postcovid rise in suicides, homicides and mental illness). Legalities should be stronger. At the same time, genetic criminology is like fingerprints.

On the mainstream social media, there are questions indicating people never tested themselves. I can't imagine planting DNA in a zip file onto the crime scene, but I can imagine misusing it, potentially, because it is easy to steal someone else's used napkin. This needs to be discussed, eventually.
To be clear, they aren't trying to steer clear of the dna match. That will be crucial to the case. They're trying to steer clear of the IGG leading them to the dna match. They laid out a series of events involving standard investigative techniques that led to testing for a match in the PCA. We do not know the true timeline of when the IGG gave them a name.

If the FBI used Othram as is being reported, the issue of possible violations of TOS using matches that didn't opt-in is not going to be an avenue to get the dna thrown out since Othram is 100% opt-in.
 
You're confusing the 12 times he was allegedly stalking 1122 King Rd with the night of the murders. Since LE never talked to BK before they arrested him, they never had the opportunity to ask him about the 12 times. However, him being at the library is actually a very realistic possibility for a grad student. Certainly I spent a lot of time at the library of a different university than the one I went to while in grad school and I know many others who did the same thing I did. So it's not like it is unusual.
Sure. AND Possibly a Two-Fer.

The hypoythetical studying at the library then a loop and park by 1122 before going home going home.
 
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