Found Deceased AL - Paighton Houston, 29, left bar with 2 men, Birmingham, 20 Dec 2019 #3

[margarita25]

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence

More on the question ‘When does absence of evidence constitute evidence of absence?’ How Bayesian confirmation theory can logically support the answer - ScienceDirect

(Wow, that’s actually a real thing lol)

ETA:
Philosophy of science - Bayesian confirmation

“If, at a particular stage in an inquiry, a scientist assigns a probability distribution to the hypothesis H, Pr(H)—call this the prior probability of H—and assigns probabilities to the evidential reports E conditionally on the truth of H, PrH(E), and conditionally on the falsehood of H, Pr−H(E), Bayes’s theorem gives a value for the probability of the hypothesis H conditionally on the evidence E by the formulaPrE(H) = Pr(H)PrH(E)/[Pr(H)PrH(E) + Pr(−H)Pr−H(E)].”

 

[PeachyMystery]

I could possibly be WAY off base here, y’all...but I have followed up on numerous cases that, to the public, have so many unanswered questions after a body is recovered and foul play is speculated, along with accidental death. I will say this in the most diplomatic way I know how...it seems when this has been the situation in MANY scenarios, LE has solidified THEIR answers lawfully and forensically...and has answered what the missing’s families want to know, privately-therefore, they have zero obligation to give the public any details, after the fact. I do believe we as the public will be given more insight than we have now as far as PH, but don’t be surprised if it’s not a smoking gun coming from the guy on the grassy knoll. MOO.

 

[squareandrabbet]

More on the question ‘When does absence of evidence constitute evidence of absence?’ How Bayesian confirmation theory can logically support the answer - ScienceDirect

Is that like the logic/science behind "you don't know what you don't know"?

 

[margarita25]

Is that like the logic/science behind "you don't know what you don't know"?

Yeah it basically means we don’t know squat!

In all seriousness, a wise man knows he’s a fool and a fool thinks he’s wise.

 

[squareandrabbet]

Yeah it basically means we don’t know squat!

In all seriousness, a wise man knows he’s a fool and a fool thinks he’s wise.

Agreed! I know I can "kind-of" explain it colloquially, but there's always the chance that A, nobody will understand me after I've done it; B, everyone will look at me as if I'm some kind of moron. Whereas, I'm betting nobody gives the author of that article "Look B"!

 

[margarita25]

So, I’ve decided the above formula, Bayesian Confirmation Theory, is about as complex as Rossmo’s theory, which DOES bring to mind geographic profiling and awareness space. We can’t use Rossmo’s Theory here specifically though, bc that formula requires 5 variables. There is also no indication necessarily that this is the work of a serial offender(s), IF we are to consider the possibility that the whole story is untrue, and/or this crime was personal, etc.

Rossmo's formula - Wikipedia

—-

ETA: I think most of us can agree here that the perp(s) was likely “aware” of this property. So awareness space is indeed potentially applicable here, moo.

 

[justaparent]

snipped... I've ever heard LE refer to a human grave as a hole. Hence the reason it really stood out to me. It makes me think it actually was a hole already there in the ground, and not a freshly dug shallow grave.

That’s seems logical to me, too. It can be time-consuming and difficult to dig a long pit even if it isn’t very deep, especially if the area was as muddy (heavy) as some have indicated.

It sounds like this might have been an area that was already indented and then covered with some of the mess already on the property.

The place was likely known to the person(s) who did this.

It seems like an unusual place to hide a body unless the person felt very rushed.

JMO

 

[margarita25]

Automobile gps?

Yeah, again this was what led LE to the abandoned property where AJ Hadsell was. We also know this helped do in monster CW as well.

 

[Artis]

Is that like the logic/science behind "you don't know what you don't know"?

 

[margarita25]

Alright, my final mathematical and philosophical analysis is as follows:

1. LE has not (publicly) confirmed the validity of the co-worker’s story.

And

2. LE has NOT NOT (publicly) confirmed the validity of the co-worker’s story.

Therefore, it’s validity is still up in the air.

Which means, imo, all options are still open, including the co-worker’s account. Until it is disproven, I don’t think anyone can say for sure that it is not true.

Of course we all know that everything here is speculation at this point.

 

[evilwise]

I could possibly be WAY off base here, y’all...but I have followed up on numerous cases that, to the public, have so many unanswered questions after a body is recovered and foul play is speculated, along with accidental death. I will say this in the most diplomatic way I know how...it seems when this has been the situation in MANY scenarios, LE has solidified THEIR answers lawfully and forensically...and has answered what the missing’s families want to know, privately-therefore, they have zero obligation to give the public any details, after the fact. I do believe we as the public will be given more insight than we have now as far as PH, but don’t be surprised if it’s not a smoking gun coming from the guy on the grassy knoll. MOO.

Pretty much. The police were are public servants though and they usually will want to announce when they determine there's no further threat to the community whether it be because they've taken the perpetrators into custody or that the death was accidental. Either one could be weeks away though the longer it stretches the more likely it will turn out to have been accidental which I don't think it was.

 

[margarita25]

More late night musings since we have zilch atm, I’m just not sure how I much I agree with “Occam” anymore FTR. While I do believe the simplest answer is sometimes the answer, it certainly is not always the answer. Again, always expect a twist in these cases here. We may, or may not, see one in this case.

 

[Sheila Terranova]

Quite right. We have no evidence that she was in that bar. We've been told that a friend said she was but no proof like video to back that up. Then this alleged friend, who claims P left with two unknown males, goes home without P, knowing P has no car to get home. Yeah, no. I'm calling BS on the whole story. 0 + 0 = 0 and that's what we've got.

I also find it very strange that this friend remains anonymous. I don't follow a lot of missing persons & murder cases but in those that I have, the last person to see someone alive is known and named. Why not now?

Is the friend male or female please?

 

[SaucyWalker]

Is the friend male or female please?

The coworker a/k/a "friend" is a woman.

 

[lindaromas]

IIRC neighbors were reported as saying it has been vacant for at least a few weeks. MOO

I'm starting to agree with other posters. Whoever buried PH knew the person who lived in that home. JMO

 

[proctorelites]

I would definitely assume the culprit knew the home was not occupied. Otherwise, IMOO, their thought went something like this: "hmm, that house looks like a good place to bury a body, i dont think they're home either, perfect, this the the one, their backyard will do" Seriously. Or just dumb luck? Nope. Whoever is involved felt safe enough to be at the home for an extended period of time to dig a hole, move her body & bury it there & felt they could do it without getting caught. They probably went inside the house too.

 

[Momof4RN]

No, the coworker was not there today.

Thank you. Sadly, i’m not really surprised to hear that. I would imagine the relationship between that coworker and the family is much like the one between Aniah Blanchard’s family and her “friend” that may have inappropriately spoken out on social media. IMO

 

[Momof4RN]

They did not say whether clothed or unclothed.

Nope they sure didn’t. Just “intact”. Suspense for answers like that is killing me.

 

[Momof4RN]

You should never take anything at face value. But don't just discount it because, well just cuz. Beyond that, there are a lot of assumptions that there is nothing else supporting it. Do you think LE could have checked her phone to see if it pinged in a location consistent with being at the bar? Do you think more than just one coworker might have confirmed to LE that she was there? I agree. Don't take it at face value. But unless LE is lying, I believe they are confident enough that she was there to continue to put that out there.

I don’t think any of us, or at least most of us, who are questioning PH’s whereabouts are discounting anything. I think we are, or at least I am, doing just that and taking it at face value (some but very little value) under the notion some or all info coming from that one person may not be truthful or accurate. That’s the story we have at the moment. I for one believe the mother when she said information is not adding up. As well as the brother saying her text did not sound like her.

 

[CuriousBystander]

A theory -

She knew the guys and died of an accidental drug overdose. She didn't send the text, the suspects did. At the time of the text, she was already dead. The purpose of the text was to establish that she didn't know the two guys and the fact that she was alive after midnight. The two guys were somewhere after midnight where there was camera or people to establish the fact they were there. I suspect the police figured out who the two guys were (because she knew them) and questioned them. They were caught in a lie based on evidence or their phone records and since she died of a drug overdose, either one of both of them talked. That's probably the "tip" that led the police to her body. If they claimed she died of a drug overdose and buried her, that would explain why the police didn't announce it was a murder pending the toxicology report.

One person’s opinion posted elsewhere but makes sense I suppose. To add to this, it wouldn’t surprise me if the friend was with her and doing drugs as well with the two guys at the time of death. Possibly helped construct the bar alibi for herself, the text, and the burial. Also wouldn’t surprise me if the burial location was connected to the friend. I doubt the friend wants to be connected to an accidental overdose, especially if she encouraged or was instrumental in the events leading up to it.