Found Deceased CA - Philip Kreycik, 37, Pleasanton Ridge Regional Park, 10 Jul 2021 #2

Discussion in 'Located Persons Discussion' started by mlhenn, Jul 11, 2021.

  1. mlhenn

    mlhenn Well-Known Member

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    Search underway for missing man at Pleasanton Ridge Regional Park

    Philip Kreycik, 37, parked his car near the Moller Ranch staging area about 11 a.m. and told his wife he was going for an hourlong run in the East Bay Regional Park, Pleasanton police said.

    Kreycik's wife reported him missing at 2 p.m. Saturday. An avid runner with no known health conditions,

    Kreycik is described as White, with a thin build and brown hair and eyes. He is presumed to be wearing running attire.

    Kreycik is an avid distance runner with no known health conditions, police said.




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    Thread #1
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 3, 2021
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  2. Sillybilly

    Sillybilly Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    ADMIN NOTE:

    Hey everyone,

    At this point, nobody knows what has happened to Philip, whether accident, misadventure, or foul play, etc ... and there is certainly no officially named POI or suspect in Philip's disappearance.

    Please read The Rules (linked in my signature). Websleuths is Victim Friendly, and victims include loved ones and friends of a missing person. It's fine to ask questions respectfully or post an opinion, but do so without casting aspersions or making direct or indirect accustions at anyone, let alone at a friend who is trying to help find one of his running buddies.

    Post respectfully and responsibly, in accordance with Websleuths rules, or your post will be removed and there may be a temporary or permanent loss of posting privileges.

    The thread will reopen once we've had a chance to clean it up.
     
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  3. Sillybilly

    Sillybilly Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    Thread is open again after a massive cleanup of TOS violations (off topic, rumors, social media, not victim friendly, accusations/insinuations, etc).

    All members, new and long term, are required to familiarize themselves with Websleuths TOS (aka The Rules, linked in my signature). In addition to those 'rules', any post that is determined by a Mod or Admin to be inappropriate or not in keeping with WS policies will be removed at our discretion.

    As this thread has been somewhat labor intensive, we thank our veteran members who Report on suspected or obvious TOS violations for our review. The sooner we can get to them and review them and deal with them, the fewer long thread closures members will experience.

    Thanks to everyone for your cooperation in helping this discussion run smoothly and for being here to help find out what has happened to Philip.

    Sillybilly
    WS Administrator
     
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  4. CocoChanel

    CocoChanel Administrator Staff Member Administrator Moderator

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    MOD REMINDER

    We welcome new members to join in the discussions here. If you have some inside or expert information you would like to share, we ask that you apply to become a VERIFIED INSIDER. Websleuths is a fact-based true crime forum, and has set intentionally high standards for what can be posted here. Only members who have been verified to have inside or expert knowledge of specific cases may post that info and offer answers to questions that would require that knowledge. Unless/until VERIFIED INSIDER status is approved, posts may be removed in absence of it. Once VI status is approved, those post may be reinstated.

    THANK YOU for your efforts to post respectfully and responsibly at Websleuths according to the Terms of Service we all agreed to when we joined.

    Faithfully,
    CocoChanel
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  5. Sillybilly

    Sillybilly Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    ADMIN NOTE:

    WS member, runspired, has now been Verified as a case insider in Philip's case. We'll let them explain their relationship to Philip and this case.

    As a VI, runspired is not required to provide links to support their knowledge of the case. Please treat our VI with respect at all times, i.e. no personalizing, bickering or challenging them on whatever input they provide. It is fine to ask questions, but they do not have to respond. If that's the case, just move on without badgering them for info.

    As promised, runspired's initial post has been reinstated along with responses that were removed.

    Welcome and Thank You to runspired and all others for caring and being here to discuss Philip's mysterious disappearance.
     
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  6. CocoChanel

    CocoChanel Administrator Staff Member Administrator Moderator

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    MOD NOTE

    Hey folks,
    While we are all anxious and eager for Philip to be found, discussing rumors is not helpful, and is in fact against the WS rules. If someone, especially a new member, posts inside information as fact without an MSM link to substantiate the info, it is a RUMOR, a violation of TOS, and we ask that you NOT respond to it. Please REPORT it instead so that mods can review it, remove it if necessary, and perhaps invite the poster to become a Verified Insider. Replying to the rumor post creates a line of discussion that will need to also be removed. Remember that Websleuths is fact -based. Unsubstantiated rumor derails a thread and causes all sorts of problems if it ‘grows’ in the thread. The REPORT button is your friend, then scroll and roll. Please try not to perpetuate a rumor.

    THANK YOU for helping us keep Websleuths the gold standard in true crime discussion.

    coco
     
  7. mlhenn

    mlhenn Well-Known Member

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    Police have now searched '100%' of places missing runner could be

    Aug 2
    They pulled GPS data from all the various search teams, both volunteer and official, to make sure every location was doubled checked. This included an area around Tejan Creek, due to a new theory.

    Local runners told authorities it's not uncommon for people abandoning their hike, possibly due to intense heat, to take a shortcut through the heavy bush and steep paths there to return to their cars.

    “This is another theory that maybe he went in a different direction,” Niederhaus said. “It’s not out of the realm of possibility.”

    This search too, though, yielded nothing.

    ....
    This statement stands out to me for whatever reason..

    "We pretty much 100% covered where he could've been, should've been or would likely show up," Pleasanton Police Lt. Chris Niederhaus told press
     
  8. cbdoc

    cbdoc New Member

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    #1 - Its a heavily wooded area so possible he (his body) still there in a hard to find spot.
    #2 - I'm not sure private properties have been fully searched. Could be ended up in the wilderness in one of those properties, or foul play / accidental shooting from someone on that road or properties.
     
  9. terracotta1982

    terracotta1982 Active Member

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    This is true.
     
  10. distracted

    distracted Well-Known Member

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    And possibly wary of smartphones in general. They’re essentially tracking devices.
     
  11. terracotta1982

    terracotta1982 Active Member

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    Now hang on a second, has anyone (LE) confirmed the prints match Phil's shoes? They haven't, to my knowledge. We also haven't seen the clip in the UPS store of Philip, and haven't heard the 911 call.
     
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  12. Vacajoe

    Vacajoe Well-Known Member

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    I completely disagree with those theorizing that he decided to go cross-country to save time. I was there on Sunday; it is extremely steep in sections with poor footing and lots of poison oak. It is very hard to imagine someone venturing through that simply to save time in getting back to their car.
     
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  13. Vacajoe

    Vacajoe Well-Known Member

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    So let’s all agree on what are ACTUAL facts that have been released so we have the same starting point. Please correct and/or add to this list, but only truly provable things:

    1. Someone that the police think is him mailed a package in Oakland.
    2. A text was sent from his phone to his wife stating an ETA of 12:45 of arriving in Stockton.
    3. Philip’s car was found at the Moller Ranch Staging Area with his shirt and cellphone inside.

    That’s it, right? Other than conjecture on the part of friends, family, and police? A lot has been said, but little of it confirmed by LE.
     
  14. MichelleAntonia

    MichelleAntonia Well-Known Member

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    Same. It would take much longer, not shorter. Unless of course he didn't expect that, that might be exactly why he ran into a problem.
     
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  15. runspired

    runspired Verified Insider - Philip Kreycik discussion

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    these trails do link up. Google Maps is about the worst possible off-road mapping service there is, no one uses that for planning.
     
  16. ElizabethAnne

    ElizabethAnne Well-Known Member

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    The text was from the CT document and said 12:35ish rather than 12:45. We assume it meant arriving in Stockton which is a reasonable assumption but the text question was "When are you leaving" right before that at 9:18 AM in the document followed by a considerable gap which could mean deleted texts or could mean he did not respond for 1 hr and 28 min or could mean something else all together like he did not hear the text right before it?).

    Given the question right before it was "When are you leaving" it could mean ETA 12:35ish could mean something else, but it isn't clear.

    Some news reports say near the the Moller Ranch staging area; some say at the Moller Ranch staging area. One said (SF Chron) in a cul de sac near the staging area. I'm thinking it is in the parking lot there, but there has been a lot of confusion.
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2021
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  17. TheFool

    TheFool Member

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    Some of PK's Strava activities are for hiking and pushing his children in a stroller which is when it would make sense for him to carry his phone. For his trail running in the Berkeley and Oakland hills when he is running for time it wouldn't make sense for him to carry his phone. Strava also shows he was running in Saucony 2021 Everun shoes - not old running shoes. For his age of 37 and estimated 10K time of 35m he is considered an elite runner. The run he planned on a normal day would not have been difficult for him to finish in 45m.
     
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  18. runspired

    runspired Verified Insider - Philip Kreycik discussion

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    The actual temperature is a subject of much debate, but it matters less than folks think. At the lower bound it was hot enough to get him in trouble in under 30min of running.

    this said I’ll lay out why I think it was hotter than the reading

    Another commenter correctly noted that temps are often taken as shade readings 8’ or more above ground level. This means actual temps felt by a human will be higher usually, especially in exposed areas such as Philip’s route.

    additionally the Pleasanton readings are for Pleasanton, not the ridge. The ridge and the small valley inside it are typically hotter, sometimes significantly so and reports from others up there during that timeframe (11am-1pm) that day all describe it as being hotter than the base.

    personally I’ve noticed that temperature readings generally in the Bay Area lag actual temps by a few hours. Probably due to their being shade readings. When heading out for a run around 10am it’s almost always whatever temp the forecast says it would be around noon.

    I took a run up there with heat gear and water last week on a shadier climb up (courdet) to check out a couple of spots we wanted to think about. It was 101f at the base. I felt fine with the temps until about 75% of the way up, then once I hit the exposed top it shifted into a serious battle to stay cool.

    the lower bound of good temp readings for the time of Philips run starting is low 90s, it’s highly likely it was already at least mid to upper 90s. Philip could have experienced heat exhaustion in temps in the low 80s so this was already a danger zone.

    regardless of base temp, by the time he was running through the hotter and exposed ridge portion at 11-11:30am he’s running in temps that were likely around 98-102f, and in the hours after that he would have faced temps of 110+ if he were still in exposed areas and 100+ in shaded areas.

    It doesn’t matter if Philip got lost or hurt before or after the heat took it’s toll, the fact is the 48 hours after he went missing that park was baking and whether it was very soon into the activity or longer until the activity regardless eventually the heat would be a compounding problem.

    personally, and I do heat train, I’ve had times I’ve cooked myself into trouble in only 20min when the temps were 80-85 and only 10ish above my usual climate by pushing a hill at the start of a run.

    lastly, if Phil was shirtless, which we still have strong suspicion he was, then the sun and heat would have cooked him even faster. You lose the evaporative cooling advantage of sweat laden clothing, lose the ability to wet the shirt at a water source, and lose the protective barrier that reflects so much of the sun’s rays when in an exposed area.

    Shirtless is possibly one of the components of why we haven’t been able to find him: since it diminishes greatly the ability of someone with heat illness to recover when reaching a water source and gives us far less material to search for once wildlife is involved.
     
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  19. runspired

    runspired Verified Insider - Philip Kreycik discussion

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    My
    my AMA actually answered this but I’ll say it again, at 9:18 he was still at home and he called his wife after that text before heading out (9:22 iirc, possibly 9:26). The UPS footage and plate readings paint a clear direct line at that point from home to trailhead. There isn’t the gap folks seem to think. Maybe another 10min at home or so but not much.
     
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  20. runspired

    runspired Verified Insider - Philip Kreycik discussion

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    he would take his phone with him when needed (and yes he’d sometimes record with it). But his preference was to go minimalist. Humans aren’t robots, we don’t always do the same thing and we are allowed to deviate from the norm. I saw him run with and without his phone many times each, we can’t read anything into it.
     
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