GUILTY CO - Possible Serial Shooter Has Colorado Drivers on Edge *Arrest* #4

[kai]

That graph and map is awesome! Thank you for taking the time to do that and posting it!

Sent from my DROID BIONIC using Tapatalk

 

[Forager]

Thanks for working up that Rossmo graphic for us! I feel like I've stepped onto the set of that TV show "NUMB3RS" I'd be fascinated to know more about the approach.

Does the approach take dates into account? I've been struck at how the many of the earliest shattering incidents took place on the stretch of I-25 northeast of Longmont.

I have a small correction for your description of the graphic. The points in the data set were the 2015 window shatterings that most closely followed the MO of what I take to be "our" window shatterer: unexplained shatterings on I-25 proper involving side, rear or roof windows. I excluded a dozen other shatterings on smaller roads in NoCO, and excluded the Romero, Connole and Jacoby shootings.

Thanks again for your work. You are definitely pushing the envelope on this!

 

[margarita25]

Here is a graph using Rossmo's formula based on the NOCO shatterings Forager considers most likely to be cause by a serial shooter. The data is from the amazing spreadsheet Forager has put together.

The area is huge. Blue areas mean cold and are an unlikely anchor point (home, work etc) for the criminal. Squares closer to and red indicate a hot zone and a more likely anchor point. If LE were doing this they would have and use a lot more informatiom to build their probabilities, order of crimes, time of day, roads, traffic, weather etc. I've only been looking at this stuff for a week or two and am just experimenting..So take it with a grain of salt, all I've used is the data points. The white outline square, near the middle is the average point of all the crimes.

Forager has kindly overlaid the hot parts of the graoh over a map so you can see where they are:

Hopefully we'll find out sooner than later if these graphs are close or not.

Thanks Forager for your awesome data sheets and overlaying the graph.

Thanks for working up that Rossmo graphic for us! I feel like I've stepped onto the set of that TV show "NUMB3RS" I'd be fascinated to know more about the approach.

Does the approach take dates into account? I've been struck at how the many of the earliest shattering incidents took place on the stretch of I-25 northeast of Longmont.

I have a small correction for your description of the graphic. The points in the data set were the 2015 window shatterings that most closely followed the MO of what I take to be "our" window shatterer: unexplained shatterings on I-25 proper involving side, rear or roof windows. I excluded a dozen other shatterings on smaller roads in NoCO, and excluded the Romero, Connole and Jacoby shootings.

Thanks again for your work. You are definitely pushing the envelope on this!

You guys are awesome, thanks so much.

 

[c4rtm4n]

Thanks for working up that Rossmo graphic for us! I feel like I've stepped onto the set of that TV show "NUMB3RS" I'd be fascinated to know more about the approach.

Does the approach take dates into account? I've been struck at how the many of the earliest shattering incidents took place on the stretch of I-25 northeast of Longmont.

I have a small correction for your description of the graphic. The points in the data set were the 2015 window shatterings that most closely followed the MO of what I take to be "our" window shatterer: unexplained shatterings on I-25 proper involving side, rear or roof windows. I excluded a dozen other shatterings on smaller roads in NoCO, and excluded the Romero, Connole and Jacoby shootings.

Thanks again for your work. You are definitely pushing the envelope on this!

I'm afriad this graph just takes into account the locations, not the order or dates. The geo formulas tend to suggest the crimes start further away from home/anchor and then as time and crimes contine the offender becomes more brazen and offends closer to home. However, NOCO shootings cover such a large area, and there is no disposal, just shoot and go..So it's quite possible they strarted close and went far..

There are a couple of formulas/models that take order and time of crimes into account, once I work out how they work, I;ll post a new graph.

 

[margarita25]

Man shot while traveling on I-70
http://www.9news.com/news/local/man-shot-while-traveling-on-i-70/288362296

"ELBERT COUNTY - A man was shot several times around 12:47 a.m. Friday while traveling along Interstate 70.

The man, who is from Kansas, was traveling east on I-70 when a blue Honda four-door vehicle pulled alongside him and started firing."

(Have we referenced a similar vehicle before?)

Snip

"The victim said two men were in the Honda. He described the driver as having curly blond hair. He was wearing a black hoodie and khaki shorts. The passenger was wearing a white T-shirt and black pants. Neither the suspects or vehicle have been located."

 

[margarita25]

Man shot on I-70 west of Limon, Deputies search for suspects
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/new...70-west-of-limon-deputies-search-for-suspects

"ELBERT COUNTY, Colo. - ELBERT COUNTY, Colo. -- The Elbert County Sheriff’s Office was searching for the men who shot a driver on Interstate 70 about 10 miles west of Limon.

The shooting was reported about 12:47 a.m. Friday

A man told deputies he was driving from Kansas when a blue four-door Honda pulled up alongside him and someone inside opened fire."

Snip

"The motive for the shooting is unknown at this time," the sheriff's office said in a press release.

Investigators were*conducting interviews in the area and reviewing security footage from businesses along the I-70 corridor."


*The victim is in critical condition

 

[Forager]

Good mapping, Magz!

 

[margarita25]

Good mapping, Magz!

That map is courtesy of www.thedenverchannel.com , no credit to be taken here.

 

[margarita25]

How is our man in critical condition doing? Looking for an update...

 

[margarita25]

( O/T,

What if we never named the shooters?
http://www.9news.com/news/what-if-we-never-named-the-shooters/288645936

"DENVER – It’s a question that psychologists and journalists increasingly wrestle with: Are the people who engage in public violence trying to become famous, and would it help if the media stopped naming and showing them?

For Tom Teves, the father of Alex Teves who died in the Aurora theater shooting in 2012, the answer is a loud and clear yes. “Honestly, I don’t understand why we’re having this conversation,” Tom Teves told 9NEWS in 2015. “This should’ve been done a long time ago.”

Many people agree with him, including two researchers from Western New Mexico University who presented a paper on the topic this week at the American Psychological Association convention in Denver."

Snip

Johnston and Joy’s research is entitled*“Mass Shootings and the Media Contagion Effect”*which argues the possibility that naming and showing shooters repeatedly in the media stimulates future violent episodes from other individuals who see value in killing as many people as they can, sometimes strictly for the purpose of generating coverage of themselves in the same media.

It’s a simple idea, but a complicated one to quantify. Estimates show only between 10 to 15 percent of shooters write or verbalize their thoughts on becoming famous as a result of their actions or attribute their motives to previous violence."

*much more at link )

 

[margarita25]

(O/T:

GA - Shanna Smith, 24, killed while driving in sw Atlanta, 4 August 2016
http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sh...led-while-driving-in-sw-Atlanta-4-August-2016 )

 

[margarita25]

Qmfr:

Man shot while traveling on I-70
http://www.9news.com/news/local/man-shot-while-traveling-on-i-70/288362296

"ELBERT COUNTY - A man was shot several times around 12:47 a.m. Friday while traveling along Interstate 70.

The man, who is from Kansas, was traveling east on I-70 when a blue Honda four-door vehicle pulled alongside him and started firing."

(Have we referenced a similar vehicle before?)

Snip

"The victim said two men were in the Honda. He described the driver as having curly blond hair. He was wearing a black hoodie and khaki shorts. The passenger was wearing a white T-shirt and black pants. Neither the suspects or vehicle have been located."

I'm looking for updates on this, not seeing anything, but oddly seeing this, o/t...

http://fox4kc.com/2014/03/19/police-man-says-he-was-shot-while-driving-on-i-70/
Police: Two men say they were shot while driving on interstate
POSTED 9:47 AM, MARCH 19, 2014, BY FOX 4 NEWSROOM, UPDATED AT 05:12PM, MARCH 19, 2014

(and O/T coincidentally this, which says was not random:
Investigators say I-70 shooting not random as innocent victim recovers
POSTED 6:35 PM, JANUARY 12, 2015
http://fox4kc.com/2015/01/12/invest...-innocent-victim-recovers-at-childrens-mercy/ )

 

[margarita25]

More details for reference re: recent shooting near Limon:

"About 12:47 a.m. Friday, the Elbert County Sheriff’s Office responded to a reported shooting on I-70 at mile marker 352, west of Limon.

Deputies arrived on scene to find a man in his 50s suffering multiple gunshot wounds. Medical treatment was administered, including a chest wound kit and tourniquet to stop the bleeding. He was transported*to the hospital in critical condition via helicopter.

The victim had been traveling eastbound on I-70 to Kansas when a blue Honda four-door pulled alongside him and opened fire. The motive for the shooting is unknown."

http://denver.cbslocal.com/2016/08/05/man-injured-when-car-pulls-up-opens-fire-on-i-70/


(I wonder if this was a road rage incident, and was this targeted or random? Is this the possible beginning of another spree? )

 

[margarita25]

( O/T, http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sh...io-Tonight-(Thursday-Aug-11th)-with-Levi-Page

See Tricia's True Crime Radio / Phoenix street shooter)

 

[Forager]

Driver says her window was shot out on I-25 in Colorado Springs
BY ANICA PADILLA, Fox31 Denver, AUGUST 10, 2016

"A woman driving on Interstate 25 said her window was shot out Wednesday morning, KRDO reported. It happened in the northbound lanes near the Interquest Parkway exit near the Air Force Academy. The window shattered but the woman was not hurt."

UPDATE: police believe rock shattered window on I-25.
KRDO, 8/10/16.

Turns out, the El Paso County Sheriffs office says they do not believe a bullet caused the [driver's side] window to shatter. Instead, they believe a passing car kicked up a rock which is to blame for the damage.

The woman said the incident was so loud, she believed someone had shot at the car. Deputies say the could not find any shell casings of a bullet. "

It's hard to know if this might be related to the series of suspicious on road shootings or window shatterings that took place last year NoCO (the red dots on the case map screen shot, below) or the ones that took place south of Denver during the summer of 2015 (the yellow dots).

This is the first individual report I've seen of a suspicious window shattering along I-25 in 2016, but not the only one to have occurred. In May '16 Jason Pohl of the Coloradoan, had reported that "Broken window reports [heard on police scanners] continued through the winter across the [NoCO] region." ( http://www.coloradoan.com/story/new...-force-still-stumped-one-year-later/83541220/ )

Yesterday's incident (the blue dot) in Colorado Springs is the first window shattering I've seen reported in that area this year or last. It is, however, only a bit north of Canon City, where a motorist was shot for reasons unknown in April 2016 (the blue star). http://myinforms.com/en-us/a/30185274-man-shot-while-driving-in-north-caon-city/

 

[margarita25]

Probably o/t, but posting for reference:

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/new...-mile-police-chase-from-thornton-to-frederick

"WELD COUNTY, Colo. -- Two people are in custody after a 20+ mile police chase early Friday morning.

Officials said Denver police initially got a call about shots fired at Interstate 25 and 58th Avenue."

**********************************************

I visited the scenes again this week. Nothing to add except chilling and I still want the perp(s) id'd more than anything.

 

[searchinGirl]

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/new...-latest-window-shattering-incident-along-i-25

Here is a report of another incident in Northern Colorado...a driver in another car saw the glass shatter...nothing left behind to explain it..SMH...wonder if investigators really have no clue about what's going on...

 

[FindHG]

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/new...-latest-window-shattering-incident-along-i-25

Here is a report of another incident in Northern Colorado...a driver in another car saw the glass shatter...nothing left behind to explain it..SMH...wonder if investigators really have no clue about what's going on...

..... yessss, searchinGirl! Thank you for the news :blush:

Maybe not? Why would it be reported if it is a normal thing to have happen? There could be incidents of shootings/debris and/or shattered glass or not that still aren't reported in MSM in the general area.



http://www.thedenverchannel.com/new...-latest-window-shattering-incident-along-i-25

Is that white paint on the shattered glass again?

:happydance: Great to see you. Missed y'all.

Not the highway shatterings, but Mr. Bill Connole and Mr. John Jacoby's killer/s are still on my mind, and brave Cory, who survived.

 

[margarita25]

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/new...-latest-window-shattering-incident-along-i-25

Here is a report of another incident in Northern Colorado...a driver in another car saw the glass shatter...nothing left behind to explain it..SMH...wonder if investigators really have no clue about what's going on...

Thanks for the headsup, searchingirl.

From the above link:

Investigators say no evidence of firearm in latest window shattering incident along I-25
Side glass shattered south of Johnstown exit

"WELD COUNTY, Colo. -- There has been another shattered window incident along Interstate 25 in Northern Colorado.

It happened around 8:24 this morning near mile marker 250, between the Johnstown and Berthoud exits.

Zane Magers told Denver7 that he was driving southbound on I-25 and had just passed another vehicle.

He said he was still in the passing lane and there was nothing but a cornfield on the right when his passenger side window shattered."

*more at link.


CORNFIELD :waitasec:

 

[margarita25]

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/new...-latest-window-shattering-incident-along-i-25

Here is a report of another incident in Northern Colorado...a driver in another car saw the glass shatter...nothing left behind to explain it..SMH...wonder if investigators really have no clue about what's going on...

More from the link above:


"“The other driver stopped and said he saw the glass explode,” Magers said.

Magers called 911. A state trooper came out, checked the damage and took photographs.

“There was no evidence of a firearm,” said Trooper Josh Lewis of the Colorado State Patrol.

Nor was there evidence of road debris. That’s what concerns Magers."