CO - Shanann Watts (34), Celeste"Cece" (3) and Bella (4), Frederick, 13 Aug 2018 *Arrest* #9

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After reading the friend's comments again about CW being distant lately with his family, I'm starting to wonder if all this was premeditated. (I previously thought he had momentarily snapped).
Wondering if he thought he could do the perfect crime by putting them in an oil tank. He also seemed to have very little damage to himself in the way of scratches. So in keeping with the premeditation theory, maybe he had planned how to kill SW with minimal damage to himself.
So the question remains as to whether he planned to put SW in the tank, but the plan failed. Or did he expect decomp (sorry) to do it's thing to remove the evidence. (I hate to say that).
Some here on this site are women who have escaped assaults, and it's painful to hear others who have lost to their assailants... Sad.
 
After reading the friend's comments again about CW being distant lately with his family, I'm starting to wonder if all this was premeditated. (I previously thought he had momentarily snapped).
Wondering if he thought he could do the perfect crime by putting them in an oil tank. He also seemed to have very little damage to himself in the way of scratches. So in keeping with the premeditation theory, maybe he had planned how to kill SW with minimal damage to himself.
So the question remains as to whether he planned to put SW in the tank, but the plan failed. Or did he expect decomp (sorry) to do it's thing to remove the evidence. (I hate to say that).
Some here on this site are women who have escaped assaults, and it's painful to hear others who have lost to their assailants... Sad.

I think you can make an argument that he was distant because he was having an affair. But I can't jump from having an affair to murdering the whole family in this case. Maybe in other cases. But not this case.
 
What happened between 1.48 am & 5.27 am Monday 13 August? (ONE possible scenario for discussion & critiquing)

The kids are already dead. For whatever reason they were killed after the childrens' party or before 2am 13 August before SW returned, likely strangled in their sleep, assuming with pressure on necks and pillows on faces to muffle any noise etc. Dieter dog doesn't even know they are "gone". He plans to kill SW later, pref when she is asleep.

  1. Even with the original flight ETA of 11pm on 12 August the kids would normally be asleep by then, when SW got home and he figures that she might just peep through their doors and see their sleeping bodies and he will kill her later.( He figures that if that doesn't work out and she realises they are not breathing, he will deal with that at the time.) Well before 11pm he comms with SW before her flight, that the kids are dog tired after their day and so is he- that they'll all be asleep when she gets in. He can't wait up – busy day tomorrow- please don't wake up the whole house when you get in etc.*

  2. So as per routine he goes to bed himself in the master c.10.30 pm. ( Normal work means he would be out around 6 am?) However he plans to wait/not sleep. Switches the house lights out in case neighbours are about, maybe surfs the net on his phone etc.

  3. He gets text/call from SW to say she is delayed. He may or may not reply – may pretend he's asleep. If he does reply, he just reiterates the point at 2* please be quiet when you come in. He might even ask her nicely to sleep in a spare room if they have one , so as not to wake him. ( No alarm is caused.) Meanwhile he probably gets up, paces, worries about his plan because he knows that he's lost at least 3 hours from his clean-up, dispose & stage plan. He plots alternatives or surfs the net, knows he can't risk falling into a deep sleep for too many hours. He can't even switch the house lights on after midnight in case neighbours see that it's all lit up.
  4. NA drops off SW around 2am. House is dark , lights all off. She is tired but wired as only just stopped travelling from a busy Thrive trip. She waves off NA, closes door , Leaves suitcase at bottom stairs, shoes off at front door. Goes to the kitchen. Leaves her purse on the island and gets a drink. She isn't feeling great. She's not going to start tidying the kitchen now but as she is OCD about tidiness she quietly moves a few toys left around the lounge floor. Next she takes her phone and starts to scroll through a few of the messages & photos she'd received from distributors or colleagues from the trip.( Dog may be asleep downstairs she greets, it goes back to it's bed downstairs.) OR or Dieter could be in the bedroom with CW- he planned to have the dog not get too agitated
  5. SW Goes upstairs and pops her head around the bedroom door of both girls. From the doorway she can see they are asleep and tucked in well. CW also appears to be asleep.
    (second part in next post or posts so long they're unreadable)
 
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Someone suggesting that SW strangled her little girls. I don't believe this ever happened and this will be disputed in court. There is a photo on facebook of SW on her final business trip in Arizona whereby SW clearly has very long fingernails. They look to be artificial (gel or acyrlic) nails and SW facebook pages and posts also suggests this as well and was something that SW did on a regular basis go to salon to get nails done. The nails are quite long in length, straight along the sides and sharply rounded at the end. The reason I am posting this is because artificial nails are very very strong, they do not flex and they are thick in density especially at the raw edge of the nail compared to natural nail characteristics.
If SW were to have strangled her daughters, there would be evidence both on the girls by way of scratches and bruises and dna under SW nails plus the possibility of breakage of nails or giving away of the nail from nail bed.
I know some are concerned that CW staged it look like SW had done this crime with her hands/nails. I don't think he could be that smart in his rushed state of mind plus there will be ways to dispute the evidence by experts.
If anything, SW would have CW's dna under her nails. Cw would not have staged that to happen.
He could have put SW's dna on the girls necks but would he thought to put SW's dna under the girls nails as well since they would have struggled to likely reached out to the assailant and scratched them in return.

This is the last photo known of SW prior to her death taken in Arizona, that is posted on several facebook pages.
Note that SW is wearing her wedding ring.
Note SW's nails and length.
 

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Hi all .. been following this case, first time posting on it, but apologies if this has already been hashed out, I'm making notes. .. where was it stated the girls' beds were not slept in? Did I read that or no? Does that mean beds were still made up, covers on? If so, didn't CW state in his "story" that SW killed the girls, he saw one of the girls laying in bed, blue in the face? If that was true, wouldn't the beds look as though they had been slept in as opposed to not?

Thanks to anyone who can comment!

Okay, this is the video where NUA says the beds were unmade and also where she says that she had her son look in the garage: Video: Friend of woman allegedly killed by husband on why something 'didn't seem right'
 
Hypothetical scenerio:
CW snaps ~ possibly when he learns that the flight was delayed and he had been stressed up until that point for varying reasons. He was frustrated because he had the girls for the business trip, he could not spend time with the mistress. Maybe the mistress was giving CW added grief about not be able to see him. Maybe CW was wanting to let SW know he was leaving her for the mistress. Lots of things going on his CW's mind.
He kills first child out of anger and rage.
He then has to kill the second child because she witnessed the first murder.
He has no other option but to kill SW.
 
Someone suggesting that SW strangled her little girls. I don't believe this ever happened and this will be disputed in court. There is a photo on facebook of SW on her final business trip in Arizona whereby SW clearly has very long fingernails. They look to be artificial (gel or acyrlic) nails and SW facebook pages and posts also suggests this as well and was something that SW did on a regular basis go to salon to get nails done. The nails are quite long in length, straight along the sides and sharply rounded at the end. The reason I am posting this is because artificial nails are very very strong, they do not flex and they are thick in density especially at the raw edge of the nail compared to natural nail characteristics.
If SW were to have strangled her daughters, there would be evidence both on the girls by way of scratches and bruises and dna under SW nails plus the possibility of breakage of nails or giving away of the nail from nail bed.
I know some are concerned that CW staged it look like SW had done this crime with her hands/nails. I don't think he could be that smart in his rushed state of mind plus there will be ways to dispute the evidence by experts.
If anything, SW would have CW's dna under her nails. Cw would not have staged that to happen.
He could have put SW's dna on the girls necks but would he thought to put SW's dna under the girls nails as well since they would have struggled to likely reached out to the assailant and scratched them in return.

This is the last photo known of SW prior to her death taken in Arizona, that is posted on several facebook pages.
Note that SW is wearing her wedding ring.
Note SW's nails and length.


Oooh! That is an excellent point. Though she may have broken a few struggling against her own murder. There might be different patterns of breakage, depending on if she were squeezing something, versus prying something away... that’s something good to think about!

Edited to add that I don’t believe for one second that she killed the girls.
 
Someone suggesting that SW strangled her little girls. I don't believe this ever happened and this will be disputed in court. There is a photo on facebook of SW on her final business trip in Arizona whereby SW clearly has very long fingernails. They look to be artificial (gel or acyrlic) nails and SW facebook pages and posts also suggests this as well and was something that SW did on a regular basis go to salon to get nails done. The nails are quite long in length, straight along the sides and sharply rounded at the end. The reason I am posting this is because artificial nails are very very strong, they do not flex and they are thick in density especially at the raw edge of the nail compared to natural nail characteristics.
If SW were to have strangled her daughters, there would be evidence both on the girls by way of scratches and bruises and dna under SW nails plus the possibility of breakage of nails or giving away of the nail from nail bed.
I know some are concerned that CW staged it look like SW had done this crime with her hands/nails. I don't think he could be that smart in his rushed state of mind plus there will be ways to dispute the evidence by experts.
If anything, SW would have CW's dna under her nails. Cw would not have staged that to happen.
He could have put SW's dna on the girls necks but would he thought to put SW's dna under the girls nails as well since they would have struggled to likely reached out to the assailant and scratched them in return.

This is the last photo known of SW prior to her death taken in Arizona, that is posted on several facebook pages.
Note that SW is wearing her wedding ring.
Note SW's nails and length.

Also, if the bizarre scenario CW lays out actually happened, the probable thing to happen would be to knock SW down or hit her on the back of the head- something fast- in order to get to the children without interruption. How could he know immediately that they were beyond hope?
 
The threads move so fast, I lose track of posts. I thought I saw a clip of reporters knocking on the door of the supposed mistress. Did they name her?

I get the feeling that CW waited for SW to fall asleep before doing what he did. Does anyone else feel this way? I don't know if that means he killed the girls after or not. She didn't feel well, so she may have said "How are the girls?", instead of going in to check on them.

I also believe she was likely asleep. I think the separation conversation may have actually happened and she was sad but just said, I'm really tired, we'll talk about it tomorrow. That's what I would do at that hour.

HLN was knocking on the door of the woman everyone suspects is the mistress, she has not been named. I think it will be in the MSM soon, she can't hide forever. I do feel bad for her, even if she did know he was married, I think she was horrified by the murder and went to LE right away.
 
This is going to be a long post on my theory. I think the bed sheets are going to do CW in. This is what I believe happened: SW gets home at 1:48. She leaves her belongings downstairs to deal with in the morning. She’s exhausted after a delayed flight, etc… She goes upstairs and straight to her bedroom. I don’t think she risks waking the kids in the middle of the night by going in to kiss them when she can see them on the monitor. (I personally don’t want to risk waking my kids at that hour knowing they won’t get back to sleep). She had no reason to believe C.W. wouldn’t have taken good care of them as he had done on all of her previous work trips. I do believe that the kids were alive at this point (I’ll explain later). I don’t think a big conversation happened between SW and CW.....maybe just a groggy hello if C.W. even bothered to act awake. I think C.W. is a coward and waited for SW to fall asleep before strangling her on their bed….probably around 3:00am.(FYI…she should be wearing pajamas when the ME report comes out). After C.W. kills SW, he wraps her in the fitted sheet she is laying on deceased on the bed. To be able to do this he has to toss off all of the top bedding to be able to peel those fitted sheet corners off of the foot of the mattress.
Hence the pile of bedding found on the floor by LE. With the most difficult murder out of the way, he proceeded to kill the “easier” victims. He likely placed them in bags because they were small. SW wouldn’t fit in a bag. I think killing all 3 and wrapping/bagging them up probably took about an hour. Then C.W. still had to shower and get dressed for work and load the truck. So I’m thinking from 3:00-4:00ish the murders happened, from 4:00-5:00 the quick clean up and get ready for work happened, and he was loaded and out of the driveway at 5:27am.
The reason I think the kids were still alive when he killed SW was because C.W. needed to get past the toughest murder first. In case SW was able to fight him off or he chickened out, he didn’t want to have 2 deceased children to deal with. He knew if he was successful in killing SW that the kids would be quick and easy to kill as they wouldn’t be able to put up much of a fight.
To disprove CW’s account of how it happened, the sheets again tell the story in my opinion. He would have killed SW in one of the girls’ rooms and SW would have wound up on the floor there. Knowing he couldn’t put her in a bag, he would wrap her in a sheet. Why on earth would he have used the fitted sheet from the Master bed to wrap her up? The fitted sheet is more difficult to remove because you have to walk to all 4 corners of the bed to remove it. Wouldn’t it have been easier for him to grab the much easier flat top sheet to use? It’s bigger and can be tied on the ends. Or he could have just used the top sheet from the kids bed that was right there where he claimed he killed her.
I believe the sheets in the kitchen trashcan were the ones on the bed at the time he killed SW. I’m pretty sure LE will be able to tell if those sheets were “used” or clean. I also think the cadaver dogs may have alerted to a dead body in the master bedroom which will also disprove CW’s account of what happened. SW should not have been dead in the master bedroom if he killed her in the girls room. Side note, if SW is wearing the clothes she came home in, then the attack would have happened sooner in the bedroom.....and maybe they did have a conversation that got heated. The clothing of SW and the girls in the ME report will give some indication as to when the were killed. Sorry for the long post. Any similar theories out there?
 
I don't think they were going to lose the house. There's nothing filed indicating a foreclosure sale pending. We do not know how much he made he may have gotten a raise and a promotion we only know what he made at the time of bankruptcy three years ago and what his job position was then. They may have also had a modification on their loan significantly lowering their payments. Banks don't want you to lose your home especially if it's an FHA loan they're strict guidelines they have to follow before foreclosure so they will do anything possible to make sure people keep their house.
 
I feel bad for the AP as well, because her life and career are going to dragged through the mud. And while I can't condone an affair and I think it's highly unlikely she didn't know he was married, who knows what kind of porkie pies he was feeding her.
 
What happened between 1.48 am & 5.27 am Monday 13 August? (ONE possible scenario for discussion & critiquing) Part 2.

( This is an attempt to explain those previous posts which asked - what on earth was he doing between 2am & 5.27am and some speculating that he actually went and took a nap after the murders. I'm proposing he was delayed as one possibility.)

Part 1- 1-5 of this are here CO - Shanann Watts (34), Celeste"Cece" (3) and Bella (4), Frederick, 13 Aug 2018 *Arrest* #9

  1. It's now c 2.15am and SW's not yet ready to go to bed, not sleepy enough. Instead of disturbing CW by surfing her phone messages in bed, she lies on the sofa upstairs and checks her messages which she often does before bed. ( CW is "waiting" ie. pretending to be asleep, internally getting more worked up and agitated having already killed the kids. He is even more inconvenienced as it doesn't look like she is coming straight to bed & thus is adding more delay to his clear-up plan. He knows he cannot leave the house til around 5am – neighbours camera would show him leaving in truck at a very early time which doesn't fit with Monday's work schedule.)

  2. Around 3 am. Maybe she starts to doze off on that "loft area sofa" whilst scrolling thru phone messages etc, decides she'd better get into bed, leaves her phone there on the couch, takes off her clothes & gets into bed she comes and gets into bed with CW, having left her phone ( off/on silent whatever) on the couch. He waits awhile until it feels as if she is asleep and her breathing has steadied It's c.3.30 am. OR she doesn't actually intend to sleep in the master that night. ( B option SW falls sleep on sofa)

  3. B option: He kills her on that sofa: Around 3am she starts to doze off on the landing sofa and her phone is dropped/left by her in the cushions. Meanwhile CW is waiting thinking – is she coming to bed or not? Eventually 3.30am – 4am , after hearing no noise at all, he feels sure she must be asleep somewhere in the house as she hasn't come to bed. He quietly gets up as he cannot afford to wake her, it will make killing her too noisy with any struggle (thick pile carpets) creeps around and comes to check her location- she is asleep on the couch. He kills her there sometime 3-4am, strangled with pillow over her face to dampen any noise. He's used his full body weight too to counter any resistance. No signs of struggle left in the house.

    OR C – SW goes from sofa and sleeps in a spare bedroom –if they have one. Either because she doesn't want to wake him at all or depending on what she knows re affair( ie she is not ready for a difficult conversation w CW in the morning, she wants to postpone reality for longer.)
So SW is killed anytime 3-4am.

Altho I initially proposed that the kids were already killed before she got home, it doesn't have to be that way. He could kill them now. They're still asleep , nothing woke them as SW's murder was quiet & quick as she was taken unawares whilst sleeping.

If he did kill them after SW, it means even less time for the staging/ clear -up before 5.27am and so the crime scene details were never completed by him.
 
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