JOHN BURN-MURDOCH- statistician for Financial Times
I talk a lot about whether or not peaks have been reached.
A good metric for this is hospitalisations:
• More reliable than confirmed cases (not influenced by testing regimes)
• Shorter lag than deaths
So here are some charts showing hospitalisations in various countries:
First, Italy:
Colour = phase of outbreak
• Red: more new hospitalisations every day than day before
• Orange: total hospitalisations rising, but rate of increase slowing
• Blue: fewer people in hospital than before
Almost all Italian regions now in "reduction" phase
John Burn-Murdoch on Twitter
Next, Spain:
•
Madrid & Catalonia now firmly in "reduction" phase
• In most other regions, rate of increase has slowed but each day still brings more new hospitalisations than discharges
• Balearics facing second acceleration?
John Burn-Murdoch on Twitter
France:
• Rate of increase in hospitalisations
dropping across the board, and some regions beginning to see total occupancy fall including epicentres Ile de France & Grand Est
John Burn-Murdoch on Twitter
US:
• Hospitalisation data patchy from state to state
•
NY & Louisiana both in the "reduction" phase, hospital bed occupancy dropping
• Rate of acceleration falling in NJ & Colorado, hopefully soon net reduction
• Connecticut still has a way to go before occupancy falls
John Burn-Murdoch on Twitter
UK:
• Hospitals in London & Midlands now have fewer covid patients with each day
• Rate of increase slowing elsewhere across UK
•
Suggests UK is at or near peak for new infections, though too early to say, and care homes of course absent from this view
John Burn-Murdoch on Twitter
Stockholm:
• Remember Sweden has not locked down like most places
• But signs suggest a steady deceleration in new hospitalisations
•
Daily hospital beds occupied still rising, but currently on course for net reduction soon John Burn-Murdoch on Twitter