Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #58

Discussion in 'Coronavirus - Covid-19' started by Amonet, Jan 17, 2020.

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  1. Amonet

    Amonet Well-Known Member

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    New virus in China ‘will have infected hundreds'
    Scientists fear up to 4,500 Chinese patients may have caught the new coronavirus | Daily Mail Online

    Updates and chat - United States:
    Current Statistics for Each Individual States

    Updates and chat - Other Countries:
    Stats and Information from Other Countries

    Safety Tips and Things to do While Quarantined

    Facial Mask Making - Coronavirus
    Grocery shopping tips during Coronavirus quarantine
    Recipes to share during Coronavirus quarantine
    Health and Safety Tips for living under Coronavirus quarantine
    Quarantine Vegetable Gardens

    WS Members/loved ones who have Coronavirus and testing

    Individuals and Companies that have donated to the Coronavirus COVID-19 cause

    Memorial Thread - COVID-19 Coronavirus

    ______

    Case details for US and Canada:
    COVID-19/Coronavirus Real Time Updates With Credible Sources in US and Canada | 1Point3Acres

    Case details for the entire world:
    Coronavirus Update (Live): 206,893 Cases and 8,272 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

    Thread #1 Thread #2 Thread #3 Thread #4 Thread #5 Thread #6 Thread #7 Thread #8 Thread #9 Thread #10 Thread #11 Thread #12 Thread #13 Thread #14 Thread #15 Thread #16 Thread #17 Thread #18 Thread #19 Thread #20 Thread #21 Thread #22 Thread #23 Thread #24 Thread #25 Thread #26 Thread #27 Thread #28 Thread #29 Thread #30 Thread #31 Thread #32 Thread #33 Thread #34 Thread #35 Thread #36 Thread #37 Thread #38 Thread #39 Thread #40 Thread #41 Thread #42 Thread #43 Thread #44 Thread #45 Thread #46 Thread #47 Thread #48 Thread #49 Thread #50 Thread #51 Thread #52 Thread #53 Thread #54 Thread #55 Thread #56 Thread #57
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 22, 2020
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  2. Tricia

    Tricia Owner Websleuths.com Staff Member Administrator Moderator

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    Hey Everyone,

    If you want to quote what the president or anyone in his administrations who give information on what they are doing to contain the virus that is absolutely fine.
    THIS IS ME BEGGING NOW. NO MATTER HOW FRUSTRATED YOU FEEL, HOW GRATEFUL YOU FEEL OR HOW YOU FEEL WITH ANY OF THE COMMENTS COMING FROM THE WHITEHOUSE OR THEIR ADMINISTRATION DO NOT PUT IT ON THIS THREAD. DO NOT PUT TOGETHER A POST THAT IS OBVIOUSLY A POLITICAL STATEMENT AND THEN TRY AND SAY IT IS NOT.
    PLEASE USE OUR PRIVATE MESSAGING SYSTEM IF YOU WISH TO DISCUSS POLITICS IN ANY WAY. YOU CAN HAVE UP TO 20 PEOPLE ON A PRIVATE MESSAGE. LOOK IN THE UPPER RIGHT-HAND CORNER. YOU WILL SEE YOUR USER NAME. NEXT TO THAT IS "INBOX". CLICK ON INBOX AND YOU CAN ACCESS YOUR PRIVATE MESSAGE SYSTEM.

    OK, not begging now.

    I am so impressed with our members posting much-needed info and members helping each other. I swear I sit here and cry happy tears at how incredible you are with this pandemic.

    Please join me tonight on Websleuths Live on YouTube at 10:00 PM Eastern. CLICK HERE to join us live. We have a great chat room going on. and I want to personally invite you all to join us. One main rule. If you a jerk in chat or if you start making inflammatory comments about politics or whatever you will be kicked out. Then you will be forced to listen to Donny Osmonds "Puppy Love" for 30 days. So please behave.
    See you tonight.
    Love,
    Tricia
    PS. I actually love Donny Osmond. Very talented, a great businessman and fantastic human being, but, Puppy Love is painful. LOL
     
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  3. sillybilly

    sillybilly Administrator Staff Member Administrator Moderator

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    Please remember ...

    No blatantly political posts.
    Do not be rude or argumentative.
    Do not discuss other members or enquire as to their whereabouts. Members are entitled to their privacy.

    Do not discuss moderators, moderation, or removed posts. Doing so can result in a temporary or permanent ban from Websleuths.


    If you state information as fact, you must provide a link to support that fact. No link, no post !!

    Members may copy their own posts from the general discussion thread over to relevant, more local threads in other appropriate Covid-19 sub-forums. If you think someone else's post relates specifically to another thread within the forum, please use the Report feature to let Mods/Admins know and we will move it on over for you.

    If you wish to start a new thread, please run it by a Mod or Admin for approval.

    Stay safe, healthy, strong and be kind to others.
     
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  4. CocoChanel

    CocoChanel Administrator Staff Member Administrator Moderator

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    MOD REMINDER:

    THERE ARE A NUMBER OF SPECIFIC SUB-FORUMS THAT HAVE BEEN CREATED TO DISCUSS THE MANY ASPECTS OF THIS EXTRAORDINARY TIME. PLEASE TRY TO KEEP YOUR POSTS ABOUT SPECIFIC TOPICS IN THOSE SUB-FORUMS TO ALLOW THOSE INTERESTED IN THOSE TOPICS TO SEE YOUR POSTS. POSTING THEM IN THIS MAIN THREAD MAKES IT MORE DIFFICULT TO FIND THEM AND CAN VEER THE MAIN THREAD A BIT SIDEWAYS. THANKS FOR TRYING YOUR BEST TO KEEP US ON TRACK!

    BELOW ARE SOME QUICK LINKS, BUT THEY ARE EASY TO FIND UNDER THE MAIN COVID HEADING ABOUT SAFETY TIPS AND THINGS TO DO WHILE QUARANTINED:

    VEGETABLE GARDENS

    QUARANTINE RECIPES
    GROCERY SHOPPING
    HEALTH & SAFETY TIPS
    MAKING YOUR OWN HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS
    FACE MASKS FOR PROTECTION
    HOMESCHOOLING
    SMILES CAFE

    Faithfully,
    CocoChanel
    Moderator


     
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  5. sillybilly

    sillybilly Administrator Staff Member Administrator Moderator

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    Permanent thread bans have been and will be issued for members who persist in trying to make the thread about politics.

    In case you have not read the opening posts above, please etch this part of Tricia's post above in your memory:


     
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  6. CSIDreamer

    CSIDreamer Well-Known Member

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  7. Simply Southern

    Simply Southern Well-Known Member

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    Best information imo, I've seen explaining the major models and the core measures and focus of each. Information on changes and updates modelers made based on the previous week or month and new needs identified.

    Amazed me, IHMEs initial objective was to determine hospital SURGE capacity and quickly evolved to include many other aspects that needed prediction.

    We, have the ability to predict the weather, 7 days out with an 80% accuracy rate. By combining and analyzing major models. So modeling does work and we are good at it.

    Thanks to Nick, for all his hard work and long hours!!!


    What computer-based models can tell us about coronavirus -- and what they can't

    Science correspondent Miles O’Brien reports on how the efforts that go into making these models -- and their ultimate purpose -- are more complicated than many of us realize.

    Miles O’Brien:

    Nearby, at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, they built a much simpler model that started with a specific question in mind: Did the health care system have the capacity to treat a surge of COVID-19 patients?...

    Miles O’Brien:

    But the model initially assumed there would be widespread adoption of social distancing restrictions in the U.S.
    Once it became clear that wasn't happening, the modeling team went back to the drawing board, releasing a new version on May 4. It now uses mobility data gleaned from cell phone usage to better understand how well people are complying with the expert advice.

    As a result, that model's projection for the total U.S. death toll by August 4 from COVID-19 instantly went from about 72,000 to 134,000.

    Miles O’Brien:

    Ensemble modeling, meaning combining the predictions of many different models, it's a crucial tool that has greatly improved forecasting the weather and, in the past three years, seasonal influenza as well.

    Nick Reich is an associate professor of biostatistics at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst. Working with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, he leads a team that builds ensemble models to improve predictions of the spread of the flu.

    Nick Reich:

    I don't think any one model should be viewed as gospel truth.

    When you just use one model, you end up with a too strong reliance on one particular set of assumptions and one particular viewpoint. And this is why it's really critical to consider multiple models together.
     
    Last edited: May 22, 2020
  8. CharlestonGal

    CharlestonGal Well-Known Member

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    Not really. Immunity threshold is a function of (R0 – 1)/R0 = 1 − 1/R0. The Ro of Sars-Cov2 is ~2.5.
     
  9. jjenny

    jjenny Well-Known Member

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    Here is what happens when unproven drug is given to sick patients for no scientific reason. And people without medical degrees shouldn't blabber on national TV how something is a magic bullet with no evidence.
    "Seriously ill Covid-19 patients who were treated with hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine were more likely to die or develop dangerous heart arrhythmias, according to a large observational study published Friday in the medical journal The Lancet."
    Large study finds hydroxychloroquine Covid-19 treatments linked to greater risk of death and heart arrhythmia
     
    Last edited: May 22, 2020
  10. SoCalDavidS

    SoCalDavidS Well-Known Member

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    This great site is still projecting 190K total deaths by August 4. That's exactly double today's total.

    Let's look a little closer at that figure. If you say that the deaths pretty much started around March 1, that makes just under 3 months of the pandemic to reach 95K. This projection is saying that in the next approx. 2 1/4 months, we're going to double that amount, so less time than it took to get where we are now. This takes into account the fact that the worst hit states like NY & NJ, have brought their #'s way, way down. So from that it can be deduced, that there are other states more than making up for that decrease.

    covid19-projections.com/
     
  11. nhmemorymaker

    nhmemorymaker Well-Known Member

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    I felt this article was missing true factual information, so tried to see any reposting or response to validate this article in The spectrum.

    I only found one, printed in another conservative press similar to the Spectrum. (the only one in English anyway). It presents much much more of the R0 data that is necessary when defining herd immunity. More statistically researched information of experts is much more crucial to understand. I would love to see lower statistics for covid, if they are truly proven....but would certainly not want to spread the words in this article.

    I still think that Sweden is one of the best examples out there for us to learn from. But as we have stated over and over, Sweden culture is sooo different than US, or probably UK, culture. When social distancing is built into the lifestyle, I guess there might be different ways to interpret herd immunity. But for now, I will live with experts who have been there/done that for years.

    What's the Herd Immunity Threshold for the COVID-19 Coronavirus?
     
  12. Simply Southern

    Simply Southern Well-Known Member

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    This drug was approved for compassionate care, meaning end of life, no known chance of recovery. Every patient or family is required to pre approve the use on themselves or loved ones. When some folks are on the deathbed, they may try anything, one last shot, a hail Mary. If it works great, if not blame the virus not the drug.

    There is a risk with any and all drugs or basically anything we choose to put in our bodies.

    A person can go for years with no side effects and BAM a life threating drug reaction. I experienced this in my 30s, with penicillin.
     
  13. jjenny

    jjenny Well-Known Member

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    Sorry, but you can't solely blame the virus if people given the drug die at higher rates than the ones not given the drug. Which they did, per the study. That's why studies are done first, then drugs are given. Otherwise you end up in this situation, where drug is having a detrimental effect and more people on it end up dead!
     
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  14. Simply Southern

    Simply Southern Well-Known Member

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    Looking at the model formula, it is based on ALL deaths, tested and untested. Not use where this number comes from, fact or estimate?

    Note that our infections estimate includes all infected individuals, not just those that took a COVID-19 test kit and tested positive. The vast majority of infected individuals do not get tested, and thus do not get reported as a positive case. As of mid-May, we estimate the true number of infected individuals in the US is ~5x higher than the reported cases.

    On this page:
     
  15. jjenny

    jjenny Well-Known Member

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    Because almost all states are stopping isolation, numbers are expected to go up.
     
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  16. shotgun09

    shotgun09 Well-Known Member

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    I do not know if this has been posted to this thread, however I was greatly disturbed yesterday when I saw the video. I lost some sleep last night because of this.

    Warning: Disturbing video content in link

    Online video shows 20-year-old beating elderly nursing home patient

    From the article:
    "Why has this been covered up because they are responsible for the care of these patients whether it be this young man if he has a mental issue or these elderly patients who can't defend themselves," she said.

    Detroit police believe the video was taken on May 15th while nursing homes remain on lockdown because of COVID-19 concerns.

    Now Uhler wonders what would have happened if loved ones were allowed inside.

    "Honestly I think if they were receiving visitors this would have been addressed a lot quicker than something like this having to evolve on Twitter," she said.

    FOX 2 reached out to Westwood nursing home about the video and we are still waiting to hear back.

    ETA: warning added
     
    Last edited: May 22, 2020
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  17. Simply Southern

    Simply Southern Well-Known Member

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    They could ONLY receive the drug, if death was imminent and they chose to take the drug. No physician or hospital forced folks to take the drug. They were already dying with no hope of recovery.
     
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  18. Simply Southern

    Simply Southern Well-Known Member

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    Very concerning, especially with infection rates in LTC. I live in a state that refuses to release any information on LTC facilities deaths or infectious rates. Per Virginia code, they count a LTC facility as a person, so if 30 die in a faculty it is counted as ONE, the same for infections, 30 infected it counts as ONE.

    My state is closed and most everyone is working from home. Our LTC facility complaints are being followed up with phone calls, no one is actually going to the facilty. Family members aren't allowed in and rarely received returned calls inquiring about their relative.

    I can't get this video out of my head. If it happens once then the likelihood, its more prevalent than we may think.

    I am so worried for all in LTC.

    Moo...
     
  19. jjenny

    jjenny Well-Known Member

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    If there is no hope of recovery, there is no reason to give an unproven drug with known dangerous cardiovascular side effects. And by the way, read the article. Patients given the drug died at a higher rate than patients not given the drug. That CAN NOT be blamed on the virus alone.
     
  20. The Night Watchman

    The Night Watchman Well-Known Member

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    The CDC has finally come out of the shadows to state actual estimates of COVID-19 death rates.

    Their best estimate = 0.27%.

    In new guidance for mathematical modelers and public health officials, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is estimating that about a third of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic.

    The CDC also says its "best estimate" is that 0.4% of people who show symptoms and have Covid-19 will die, and the agency estimates that 40% of coronavirus transmission is occurring before people feel sick.

    The agency cautions that those numbers are subject to change as more is learned about Covid-19, and it warns that the information is intended for planning purposes. Still, the agency says its estimates are based on real data collected by the agency before April 29.

    The numbers are part of five planning scenarios that "are being used by mathematical modelers throughout the federal government," according to the CDC. Four of those scenarios represent "the lower and upper bounds of disease severity and viral transmissibility."


    CDC says 35% of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic - CNN
     
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