Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #85

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I can definitely see that as being a big contributor to the surges we're seeing now.

I still say we need a national campaign, such as the one launched to keep folks from smoking -- using emotional appeal -- to change hearts and minds. It simply doesn't work to try and enforce rules that might help, but feel as though they're overbearing.

Plus, I think this virus is spreading in other ways.

If people are not washing their hands, not social distancing, and not avoiding crowds as they should (as the CDC report suggests), mask wearing is going to be less effective. It is the combination of preventative measures that has the greatest result.

Maybe people are forgetting how long the virus lives on surfaces? Maybe they are forgetting that prolonged exposure is risky? Maybe they are adjusting their masks and then touching their faces, reusing their masks without washing them? Maybe they are just too close to other people? (Well, we know that they are, we have all seen the pics.)

In our grocery stores most people are still wiping down our cart and basket handles with the wipes that all stores provide.
We are still using the sterilising solution that is on the shop and restaurant counters. We are still dodging around each other, maintaining that distance ... slowing down our walk to keep away from the person in front. It has become 2nd nature to most people.
 
Going by that theory, Australia should have had 17,600 covid deaths ... and yet we have had 907. We would have had around 100 covid deaths, if Victoria's 2nd wave hadn't happened (and it shouldn't have).
That is what controlling the virus does for a country.

(China's population is not all packed like sardines. It has huge countryside areas. And Wuhan itself - pop. 11 million - is a very sprawling city. Not to mention being a compliant population, one that wears masks and stays home when required.)


Perhaps "packed like sardines" is hyperbolic, but they are more than three times as populated when you compare land mass to population.

The U.S. has 9.8 million square miles of land mass and a population of 307,760,000.

China has 9 million square miles of land mass and a population of 1,333,670,000.

I totally get how Australia has a lower infection rate, given that their land mass is 7.7 million square miles and their population is only 21,948,000.

So, given that the Chinese have been traveling and they opened up in March, it's very odd that they have a tiny fraction of the deaths the US has.

Very odd.
 
IMO had the US Government done the right immediate thing by federally mandating people would have listened, and we would not be where we are now. Right now there seems to be no turning the clock back.


You are absolutely 100% correct: People look to our leaders (president and federal government) in a crisis of this type: try and imagine when Pearl Harbor was attacked and FDR told the states- "you are on your own"-- it is unthinkable that each state would have a different way of dealing with the situation. Our nation was under attack at that time and it is under attack now- though the attacker is unseen. An attack of this nature mandates the president and Federal Government implement a plan-- that plan would have included masks, social distancing and hand washing, and from the get-go most people (not all) would have accepted it. There will always be outliers-- but if people could trust the government they would follow their lead. It is way too late now to obtain cooperation from a certain segment of the population.
 
If people are not washing their hands, not social distancing, and not avoiding crowds as they should (as the CDC report suggests), mask wearing is going to be less effective. It is the combination of preventative measures that has the greatest result.

Maybe people are forgetting how long the virus lives on surfaces? Maybe they are forgetting that prolonged exposure is risky? Maybe they are adjusting their masks and then touching their faces, reusing their masks without washing them? Maybe they are just too close to other people? (Well, we know that they are, we have all seen the pics.)

In our grocery stores most people are still wiping down our cart and basket handles with the wipes that all stores provide.
We are still using the sterilising solution that is on the shop and restaurant counters. We are still dodging around each other, maintaining that distance ... slowing down our walk to keep away from the person in front. It has become 2nd nature to most people.

I agree. It's probably not combining hand-washing and distancing with mask-wearing.

I keep wondering if we're going to see a rash of cancer a couple of years down the road, though, due to absorbing some of the chemicals in today's hand sanitizers.
 
So, what do we do to help those who deny to understand when our federal government is doing nothing to help?

You know, I looked for some answers ... I feel really bad for all who are trying. And the risks are just growing and growing.

All I could find was these opinions:

..... we’ll likely see that states will scale back their reopenings, or even go back into lockdown, which we’re already seeing in Europe, where COVID cases are yet again surging.
.... wash your hands frequently — soap and water and at least 20 seconds of scrubbing — and avoid touching shared household items, clean “high touch” surfaces (like your phone) regularly.
.... keep your hands clean, and seriously, stop touching your face and just stay home.
The U.S. Has Now Surpassed 9 Million COVID Cases

In other words, you are not going to change anyone else's mind, they have to do that themselves. So, protect yourself.
 
You are absolutely 100% correct: People look to our leaders (president and federal government) in a crisis of this type: try and imagine when Pearl Harbor was attacked and FDR told the states- "you are on your own"-- it is unthinkable that each state would have a different way of dealing with the situation. Our nation was under attack at that time and it is under attack now- though the attacker is unseen. An attack of this nature mandates the president and Federal Government implement a plan-- that plan would have included masks, social distancing and hand washing, and from the get-go most people (not all) would have accepted it. There will always be outliers-- but if people could trust the government they would follow their lead. It is way too late now to obtain cooperation from a certain segment of the population.


For sure, that might have helped, but our government isn't set up in the same manner as some other governments, and our Constitution grants the States the right to implement mandates. Even then, the extent to which they can issue mandates is limited by the Bill of Rights, so it's a sticky wicket.

We did see governors move on mandates, Kansas' governor was the first to dismiss public school and close down certain businesses, but soon after, the KS Legislature overruled her Executive Order and, instead, pushed the ability to mandate to the local County leaders.

We're just not set up to do anything like that at a federal level, and I doubt there would be sufficient support to amend the Constitution at this time.
 
For sure, that might have helped, but our government isn't set up in the same manner as some other governments, and our Constitution grants the States the right to implement mandates. Even then, the extent to which they can issue mandates is limited by the Bill of Rights, so it's a sticky wicket.

We did see governors move on mandates, Kansas' governor was the first to dismiss public school and close down certain businesses, but soon after, the KS Legislature overruled her Executive Order and, instead, pushed the ability to mandate to the local County leaders.

We're just not set up to do anything like that at a federal level, and I doubt there would be sufficient support to amend the Constitution at this time.

Please read this article which describes that the Obama administration left what is described as a "playbook" if and when a pandemic would come to our country.

Evidence Shows Obama Team Left A Pandemic ‘Game Plan’ For Trump Administration

It is a myth or rumor that the Federal Government is not set up to manage a pandemic. It is simply not true.
 
...snipped for focus...

.... keep your hands clean, and seriously, stop touching your face and just stay home.
The U.S. Has Now Surpassed 9 Million COVID Cases

In other words, you are not going to change anyone else's mind, they have to do that themselves. So, protect yourself.


I have to admit that I fuss with my face way too often and I've been trying and trying to stop doing that.

But, I think really can change minds if we go about it the right way -- and that's to help people understand at an emotional level how important it is for them to follow the suggestions.

I think mandates and closures, while necessary, create anger and resistance in those who don't understand what's going on here. JMOO
 
Highly unlikely a federal mandate would be constitutional. The CDC has the ability to quarantine borders and restrict travel between states, but only the states have the ability to mandate in their states and, even then, depending on their state constitutions, the legislatures can overrule a governor's mandate as they did in Kansas.

A good read on this. It could, indeed, be constitutional.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/LSB/LSB10530
 
Perhaps "packed like sardines" is hyperbolic, but they are more than three times as populated when you compare land mass to population.

The U.S. has 9.8 million square miles of land mass and a population of 307,760,000.

China has 9 million square miles of land mass and a population of 1,333,670,000.

I totally get how Australia has a lower infection rate, given that their land mass is 7.7 million square miles and their population is only 21,948,000.

So, given that the Chinese have been traveling and they opened up in March, it's very odd that they have a tiny fraction of the deaths the US has.

Very odd.

No, it is not odd. I don't know if you can read this article. NY Times. It will explain to you how their authoritarian govt works, how they are still all apprehensive, working from home, being tested, being monitored.

You will need to do extensive reading about their society and methods before you can understand. IMO

U.S. Says Virus Can’t Be Controlled. China Aims to Prove It Wrong.

Make no mistake, Australia has low infections because we closed all of our borders ... state and national .. and got the virus under control before it could get out of control. We have only recently opened any state borders, and some are still closed to other states.
 
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Perhaps "packed like sardines" is hyperbolic, but they are more than three times as populated when you compare land mass to population.

The U.S. has 9.8 million square miles of land mass and a population of 307,760,000.

China has 9 million square miles of land mass and a population of 1,333,670,000.

I totally get how Australia has a lower infection rate, given that their land mass is 7.7 million square miles and their population is only 21,948,000.

So, given that the Chinese have been traveling and they opened up in March, it's very odd that they have a tiny fraction of the deaths the US has.

Very odd.

Not odd at all MOO due to their focus on shutting down at the outset as they have done again and again any cases and clusters.

Basic pandemic control to avoid exponential growth.

China did basic 101 pandemic control (hard line at that!) and then, they tested 9 MILLION in five days in the city of Qingdao in China in the last two weeks to stamp it out because they found an outbreak of 12 cases.. yes, just 12 cases and they then tested the entire population of the city!!! Covid-19: China's Qingdao to test nine million in five days

ETA: Have you researched the density of New York City area with Wuhan?

Have you seen how NYC and NY state has handled agressively and the outstanding differences NY focus on micro clusters has been so successful?

ETA: Answer for NYC is 27,000 people per square mile
New York has the highest population density of any major city in the United States, with over 27,000 people per square mile. (302 square miles with 8.3 million) Planning-Population-NYC Population Facts - DCP


and Wuhan has 19 million in in their metro area of 590 sq miles Wuhan - Wikipedia

NYC is not exploding right now with their density.. it is midwest breadbasket with low densities. (well, it's all of the US.. but point is NYC has under control better than the rest of the country due to mitigations and focusing on microclusters by their governor) MOO
 
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Forbes and a thought to help you through the coronavirus.

Years ago, the anthropologist Margaret Mead was asked by a student what she considered to be the first sign of civilization in a culture. The student expected Mead to talk about clay pots, tools for hunting, grinding-stones, or religious artifacts.

But no. Mead said that the first evidence of civilization was a 15,000 years old fractured femur found in an archaeological site. A femur is the longest bone in the body, linking hip to knee. In societies without the benefits of modern medicine, it takes about six weeks of rest for a fractured femur to heal. This particular bone had been broken and had healed.

Mead explained that in the animal kingdom, if you break your leg, you die. You cannot run from danger, you cannot drink or hunt for food. Wounded in this way, you are meat for your predators. No creature survives a broken leg long enough for the bone to heal. You are eaten first.

A broken femur that has healed is evidence that another person has taken time to stay with the fallen, has bound up the wound, has carried the person to safety and has tended them through recovery. A healed femur indicates that someone has helped a fellow human, rather than abandoning them to save their own life.

How A 15,000-Year-Old Human Bone Could Help You Through The Coronacrisis
 
A good read on this. It could, indeed, be constitutional.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/LSB/LSB10530

Thanks for that post and informational read. I did a short dig and found it is not a political activist organization nor is it partisan in nature.

I viewed quite a bit of articles on the organization... so just for concise info here is wiki description.

"The Congressional Research Service (CRS), known as Congress's think tank,[3] is a public policy research institute of the United States Congress. As a legislative branch agency within the Library of Congress, CRS works primarily and directly for Members of Congress, their Committees and staff on a confidential, nonpartisan basis.

Its staff of approximately 600 employees includes lawyers, economists, reference librarians, and social, natural, and physical scientists.[4] In fiscal year 2016, CRS was appropriated a budget of roughly $106.9 million by Congress.[1]

Congressional Research Service - Wikipedia
 
Sorry Boston Globe paywalled
A closer look at Red Sox pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez’s struggle with myocarditis - The Boston Globe
more at link
The reason for caution is obvious. The consequence of stressing the heart when myocarditis is present isn’t merely a threat to a career. It is a potential threat to life.

That worst-case scenario informed a corresponding response, chiefly having Rodríguez avoid physical exertion for a period of three months. Yet despite that restriction — which spanned the 2020 season — the Red Sox and Rodríguez are optimistic about the pitcher’s outlook. He’s expected to have a normal offseason and considered likely to be ready for the start of the 2021 season.

“I was confident, first of all, listening to the doctors that were handling Eduardo and finding out that he was under real good care,” said Rodríguez’s agent, Scott Pucino of Octagon. “Even though it’s frightening to hear about the heart, you know that the care that the Boston Red Sox had with the cardiologists, how confident they were that, hey, shut this down and things will be OK."

Despite that assessment, Rodríguez offers a reminder of the uncertainties that accompany the coronavirus. After all, after testing positive for COVID-19 before reporting for training camp in July, the 27-year-old lefthander was cleared to join the team following multiple negative tests in July.

He’d been able to throw into a net during his quarantine, and once in Boston, had thrown two bullpen sessions while trying to prepare for the season. But fatigue in the second of those sessions at Fenway Park led to the MRI that resulted in the diagnosis of myocarditis.

Much remains unknown about the relationship between COVID-19 and the cardiac health of athletes who are attempting to return to play. Medical researchers are still trying to gain insight into the impact of the virus on cardiac health and the frequency in both the general population and athletes of such impacts.

As such, the effort to define the best practices for how to ensure the safe return of players coming back from COVID-19 infections to their sports remains ongoing.

“There’s still so much of a mystery with COVID in general," said Dr. Jonathan Kim, the chief of sports cardiology at Emory University. “We’re left in this very challenging arena where we obviously know COVID can impact the heart in hospitalized patients. We’re worried about the potential impact on athletes because if myocarditis is present, myocarditis is a common cause of sudden death. Adverse events can happen if you intensely exercise and there is active inflammation in the heart. But there are all these unknown questions as it relates to how much cardiac injury occurs in patients, including athletes, who are not as sick with COVID or may have an asymptomatic infection.

“Hopefully sooner rather than later we’ll have a better idea about how much cardiac injury occurs in athletes who are not as ill with COVID-19. We will learn about the effectiveness of our current screening procedures. We’ll let the science drive us. But in terms of the evidence and published science out there right now, the data are pretty minimal and limited right now.”The limited data pool in turn means that there isn’t a definitive playbook to follow, a notion acknowledged by the Red Sox in the case of Rodríguez.

“There’s no precedent for this,” chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said at the end of the season. “There’s such a limited history of athletes with myocarditis, there’s no history of athletes with COVID myocarditis, and we need to make sure we’re putting Eddie’s health first and foremost.”

The Red Sox appear to be following standard practices for treating athletes who experience myocarditis that isn’t the product of COVID. The prescription of three months of rest is standard for athletes diagnosed with myocarditis. For now, that same period of inactivity — which Kim said yields a full recovery of the heart in the majority of cases — is being prescribed for those who develop myocarditis after testing positive for COVID-19.
 
I can't say for everywhere else but my little state of Ohio had over 3800 new cases today. According to Governor Dewine the hospitals, health departments and doctors are saying the majority of cases are traced to weddings, funerals, birthday parties, friends and family gatherings. People are too comfortable with others they know and aren't practicing social distancing and wearing masks.
He said that there are cases traced to restaurants and bars and schools but not many.
I suspect that many of these positives who claim they took every precaution or wore a mask "always" are not counting the times they allowed their grown kids and little grandchildren inside their homes, all unmasked. People seem to think they don't need to mask around family. Oh, if that were only true this entire thing wouldn't be half as terrible!

I know someone very well who always masked, took every precaution, except for hugging and hanging out with her grandkids. She ended up on a ventilator for a month. She's coming off of it now but it's clear that she has some serious damage that may make the rest of her years miserable.
 
Please read this article which describes that the Obama administration left what is described as a "playbook" if and when a pandemic would come to our country.

Evidence Shows Obama Team Left A Pandemic ‘Game Plan’ For Trump Administration

It is a myth or rumor that the Federal Government is not set up to manage a pandemic. It is simply not true.


Thank you for that link! I downloaded the Playbook and I've quickly scanned it and ran text-recognition so I can now search the text. It seems decent but it appears to be only a "proposal" that was never voted on or enacted. However, in going through it, I can see it offers a good plan for progressing -- what it doesn't do is set up a federal mandate -- it actually proceeds through states for mandating, which is what we're doing.

I'm going to read it in-depth when I get a bit more time. Looks like a great read!
 
A good read on this. It could, indeed, be constitutional.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/LSB/LSB10530


Maybe. Maybe not, but we need to nail it down so we know how to proceed in the future. The quickest way I see it happening is if the federal government issues a mask mandate, which would trigger a lot of lawsuits, and the SCOTUS would agree to hear one of the cases quickly.

I've heard so many constitutional scholars comment on this and it's going to have to go to SCOTUS at some point so we get a ruling one way or the other.
 
I suspect that many of these positives who claim they took every precaution or wore a mask "always" are not counting the times they allowed their grown kids and little grandchildren inside their homes, all unmasked. People seem to think they don't need to mask around family. Oh, if that were only true this entire thing wouldn't be half as terrible!

I know someone very well who always masked, took every precaution, except for hugging and hanging out with her grandkids. She ended up on a ventilator for a month. She's coming off of it now but it's clear that she has some serious damage that may make the rest of her years miserable.

The unmasked child thing is worrisome. I've said before that children too young to be masked should probably not be in stores. With all the curbside delivery being offered now, I don't see any good excuse to take an unmasked child in a store where he/she can cough, grab items from shelves, etc.
 
There is a report here from December 2016, by the Pandemic Prediction and Forecasting Science and Technology Working Group. What happened to them? They seemed to be on top of it.

Urgency of Action
The next pandemic pathogen could emerge any day. Perhaps it already is circulating in a non‐ human reservoir, but has not yet had the opportunity to infect humans. Changes in climate, ecosystems, or human settlements and behavior could provide that opportunity. Or perhaps it will arise from a precursor microbe, after poorly‐understood evolutionary drivers bring about the genomic changes necessary to infect and be transmitted among humans. The next outbreak to devastate agriculture or ecosystems also could emerge at any time, and spread quickly through a highly networked world. Interdisciplinary collaborations of mathematicians, computer scientists, microbiologists, epidemiologists, veterinarians, and other scientists to understand and predict these processes are not esoteric, academic pursuits. These collaborations are vital investments that could provide tangible benefits to public health, economic vitality, and security.

The needed collaborations stretch well beyond the expertise and resources of any one part of the Federal government, or of the Federal government as a whole. The PPFST WG will continue its efforts to bring Federal agencies together, and join then with non‐Federal partners and civil society, to advance outbreak modeling S&T, and catalyze its implementation against the rising threat of emerging infectious diseases.

https://obamawhitehouse.archives.go...diction-federal_efforts_and_opportunities.pdf
 
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