Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #85

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10ofRods said:
Any large gathering, especially indoors, is a huge risk. But ones that pull mostly younger people (like Saturday night rallies for BLM) will have far fewer serious cases and deaths resulting.

Those that pull older people (mega-churches, political rallies, etc) will have a higher percentage of mortality and critical illness.

It was odd to watch the outdoor BLM protests and see mostly young people (I'd say 18-25) with many of them wearing masks, and then to watch other indoor political events where the average age looked to be 50 (with lots of people older than that) and no masks.

Then some people want to insist that both types of events have equal consequences for human life - and for our medical workers. But they do not.



Yass! So that in the next round (if immunity really vanishes sometime after 6 months) the currently unfat healthy people will now be immune-damaged sick people!

Oof. Ay-yi-yi.

I hope the thin, healthy young people are fully prepared to do all of the necessary jobs of society...
Click to expand...

Do young people from rallies who have Covid or are super spreaders not spread it to their families? Or co-workers, friends, essential workers?
 
Bailey38 said:
Do young people from rallies who have Covid or are super spreaders not spread it to their families? Or co-workers, friends, essential workers?
Click to expand...

They may. But many of them are college students, who live with other. In fact, there's a real divide between my home-living students and the dorm/independent living students. The home-living students do not go to protests, let's put it that way.

But that's just SoCal (but applies to the whole West Coast, as far as I can tell).

I think you're missing one point though. Outdoor transmission is more difficult. If people are moving, it's more difficult. And if half the people wear masks (as they did at every BLM protest I saw covered in MSM), then that's important.

The movement, alone, keeps people 4-5 people apart (you can go watch the videos on the various network youtubes).

Standing and yelling shoulder to shoulder, with butts touching bellies - you know, like at a football game before and after - that's not the same.

Keep moving. Don't stay near the same (possibly transmitting person). Don't go to a protest or rally when local positivity rates are above 5% (which, during the protests, was probably a high number - now we're looking at much high positivity rates in many places - places where there are now rallies).

IOW, some of the lack of transmission during protests was pure luck (early in the pandemic, not during October, 2020). People did wear masks. People get moving. They did yell (points off). Many were living with other young people - not old people. Older people tend to hang out with other older people, etc.
 
Reasonable & Just said:
I remember the good old days when I thought (hoped) it wouldn't hit less-populated areas like MT. March seems so long ago.
Click to expand...

Well, it didn't make sense to me that people who traveled here from out of state did not have to quarantine. But, that would have interfered with tourist dollars. Can't have that!

I was doing the math, out of 10,000 people, if 18% are over age 65. And the Covid death rate is 14%, maybe lower? For that age group...it is still around 200 deaths. Probably lower, because it seems like older folks are staying home. Is that small? Or sobering? 2%.

But the math may be off, because it seems like minority populations are dying in higher levels, and the Coronavirus is now rampant on native American reservations. The percentages are highest in counties that have reservations. Sadly.
 
10ofRods said:
They may. But many of them are college students, who live with other. In fact, there's a real divide between my home-living students and the dorm/independent living students. The home-living students do not go to protests, let's put it that way.

But that's just SoCal (but applies to the whole West Coast, as far as I can tell).

I think you're missing one point though. Outdoor transmission is more difficult. If people are moving, it's more difficult. And if half the people wear masks (as they did at every BLM protest I saw covered in MSM), then that's important.

The movement, alone, keeps people 4-5 people apart (you can go watch the videos on the various network youtubes).

Standing and yelling shoulder to shoulder, with butts touching bellies - you know, like at a football game before and after - that's not the same.

Keep moving. Don't stay near the same (possibly transmitting person). Don't go to a protest or rally when local positivity rates are above 5% (which, during the protests, was probably a high number - now we're looking at much high positivity rates in many places - places where there are now rallies).

IOW, some of the lack of transmission during protests was pure luck (early in the pandemic, not during October, 2020). People did wear masks. People get moving. They did yell (points off). Many were living with other young people - not old people. Older people tend to hang out with other older people, etc.
Click to expand...

Thank you, I certainly understand the birds of a feather. :) Not looking forward to the next 2 months when many go home and some families gather together. I don't think we are going to make any special plans, very small if any.

My granddaughter has already asked if she could stay with me during break. It's fine with me, an old house without central heat or air. Plenty of cleaning supplies and space. She's in one of the groups you describe, the stay away from rallies, stores, just about everything.
 
mickey2942 said:
I was just running errands, and was stunned to see parking lots at restaurants full. Crowds of people in bars.

I guess that the prevailing attitude now, is that everyone is going to get Covid, so just get it done. Sick, old, fat people just stay home.
Click to expand...
Perfectly healthy, young, skinny people get this too. Thinking of Nick Codero, age 39, Canadian actor. No underlying problems. Not sick. Not fat, not old.
 
10ofRods said:
Any large gathering, especially indoors, is a huge risk. But ones that pull mostly younger people (like Saturday night rallies for BLM) will have far fewer serious cases and deaths resulting.

Those that pull older people (mega-churches, political rallies, etc) will have a higher percentage of mortality and critical illness.

It was odd to watch the outdoor BLM protests and see mostly young people (I'd say 18-25) with many of them wearing masks, and then to watch other indoor political events where the average age looked to be 50 (with lots of people older than that) and no masks.

Then some people want to insist that both types of events have equal consequences for human life - and for our medical workers. But they do not.



Yass! So that in the next round (if immunity really vanishes sometime after 6 months) the currently unfat healthy people will now be immune-damaged sick people!

Oof. Ay-yi-yi.

I hope the thin, healthy young people are fully prepared to do all of the necessary jobs of society...
Click to expand...

Especially caring for the relatives of those who have died.
 
As virus surges, Trump rallies keep packing in thousands

“WASHINGTON (AP) — There are no crowds at Disneyland, still shut down by the coronavirus. Fewer fans attended the World Series this year than at any time in the past century. Big concerts are canceled.

But it’s a different story in Trumpland. Thousands of President Donald Trump’s supporters regularly cram together at campaign rallies around the country — masks optional and social distancing frowned upon.

Trump rallies are among the nation’s biggest events being held in defiance of crowd restrictions designed to stop the virus from spreading. This at a time when public health experts are advising people to think twice even about inviting many guests for Thanksgiving dinner.

“It doesn’t matter who you are or where you are, when you have congregate settings where people are crowded together and virtually no one is wearing a mask, that’s a perfect setup to have an outbreak of acquisition and transmissibility,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, recently told Yahoo News. “It’s a public health and scientific fact.”“

[...]

“Trump held a rally Sept. 25 in Newport News, Virginia, even though public health officials warned that it would violate Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam’s executive order generally banning gatherings of more than 250 people.

Zach Nayer, a resident at Riverside Regional Medical Center in Newport News, and a colleague later compiled county data on new coronavirus cases at Trump rally sites from late June to the Newport News event. They reviewed the number of cases for the 14 days before and after each event and published their findings on the health news site STAT.

They found that spikes in COVID-19 cases occurred in seven of the 14 cities and townships where rallies were held: Tulsa, Oklahoma; Phoenix; Old Forge, Pennsylvania; Bemidji and Mankato in Minnesota; and Oshkosh and Weston, Wisconsin.

The researchers acknowledged, however, that increased caseloads could not be definitely linked to the rallies.“

- much more at link
 
Trino said:
Perfectly healthy, young, skinny people get this too. Thinking of Nick Codero, age 39, Canadian actor. No underlying problems. Not sick. Not fat, not old.
Click to expand...
We've had some young, seemingly healthy people get it and get sick in our community. Even though I know it can happen, it's still a bit of a shock to hear about that, and you always worry about the long-term effects.
 
Reasonable & Just said:
One day, after we have gotten through the worst of this pandemic and gotten a vaccine we can trust, our Dr. Atlas will have some explaining to do.
Click to expand...

Yes. Dr Atlas, Gov DeSantis ... and likely more people, as well.

If this was to happen in my country, there would be a judicial inquiry. Probably sooner rather than later.
Just as a judicial inquiry is already being held to determine who was at fault in the start of the Victorian 2nd wave, where we lost over 800 lives (every life matters). Who allowed such non-trained people to be in control of quarantining at a medi hotel.

IMO
 
Reasonable & Just said:
One day, after we have gotten through the worst of this pandemic and gotten a vaccine we can trust, our Dr. Atlas will have some explaining to do.
Click to expand...

He will disappear into the night, far richer than he was before Covid. He is already near the end of his career, already sold-out. Has his classic house in Palo Alto.

He probably hoped he'd get a book out of it, having exited academia for a political career the instant he took the job at Hoover.
 
Bailey38 said:
Thank you, I certainly understand the birds of a feather. :) Not looking forward to the next 2 months when many go home and some families gather together. I don't think we are going to make any special plans, very small if any.

My granddaughter has already asked if she could stay with me during break. It's fine with me, an old house without central heat or air. Plenty of cleaning supplies and space. She's in one of the groups you describe, the stay away from rallies, stores, just about everything.
Click to expand...

Me, personally, I would want to see my granddaughter. I'd wear a mask inside my own home and social distance for a bit. There are now those at home Covid tests, I don't know if I'd go that far. I think space and ventilation are key - the mask would be my security blanket. (And yeah, I'd go in for a quick hug, you betcha).
 
10ofRods said:
He will disappear into the night, far richer than he was before Covid. He is already near the end of his career, already sold-out. Has his classic house in Palo Alto.

He probably hoped he'd get a book out of it, having exited academia for a political career the instant he took the job at Hoover.
Click to expand...

I watched him the other day on "lockdown tv unherd" on youtube. I believe he mentioned he might retire out of the country after all this. It's a show I enjoy watching with so many scientists and experts on it. Well, mostly!
 
“A CNN investigation of 17 Trump campaign rallies finds that 14 of the host counties — 82% of them — had an increased rate of new Covid-19 cases one month after the rally.

The 17 rallies occurred between August 17 and September 26. CNN evaluated the rate of new daily cases per 100,000 residents at four weeks before the rally, on the rally date, and four weeks after the rally at the county level and at the state level.

Of the 14 host counties that had increased infection rates, eight of the counties had declining rates of infection in the month before the rally. The other six counties already had increasing rates of infection in that preceding month.“

Many counties that hosted Trump rallies had a significant increase in COVID-19 cases
 
margarita25 said:
As virus surges, Trump rallies keep packing in thousands

“WASHINGTON (AP) — There are no crowds at Disneyland, still shut down by the coronavirus. Fewer fans attended the World Series this year than at any time in the past century. Big concerts are canceled.

But it’s a different story in Trumpland. Thousands of President Donald Trump’s supporters regularly cram together at campaign rallies around the country — masks optional and social distancing frowned upon.

Trump rallies are among the nation’s biggest events being held in defiance of crowd restrictions designed to stop the virus from spreading. This at a time when public health experts are advising people to think twice even about inviting many guests for Thanksgiving dinner.

“It doesn’t matter who you are or where you are, when you have congregate settings where people are crowded together and virtually no one is wearing a mask, that’s a perfect setup to have an outbreak of acquisition and transmissibility,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, recently told Yahoo News. “It’s a public health and scientific fact.”“

[...]

“Trump held a rally Sept. 25 in Newport News, Virginia, even though public health officials warned that it would violate Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam’s executive order generally banning gatherings of more than 250 people.

Zach Nayer, a resident at Riverside Regional Medical Center in Newport News, and a colleague later compiled county data on new coronavirus cases at Trump rally sites from late June to the Newport News event. They reviewed the number of cases for the 14 days before and after each event and published their findings on the health news site STAT.

They found that spikes in COVID-19 cases occurred in seven of the 14 cities and townships where rallies were held: Tulsa, Oklahoma; Phoenix; Old Forge, Pennsylvania; Bemidji and Mankato in Minnesota; and Oshkosh and Weston, Wisconsin.

The researchers acknowledged, however, that increased caseloads could not be definitely linked to the rallies.“

- much more at link
Click to expand...

''The researchers acknowledged, however, that increased caseloads could not be definitely linked to the rallies''

Good of them to clarify that.

ND has one of the highest # of cases per 100k right now and there haven't been any rallies there.
 
SouthAussie said:
"If you attend a rally, there is a 99% chance the virus is attending with you. And every day it is looking for a new home in over 70,000 people."
Click to expand...

This reminds, I was tossing something around in my head earlier this afternoon:

I was thinking about similar formulas re: the rapidly increasing/exponential community spread/covid infections, particularly wrt to those who may be asymptomatic.

We talk about “viral loads” and respiratory droplets remaining in the air in indoor settings; well, with more people infected, presumable some who are also asymptomatic, I am wondering if this could mean that, perhaps due to this increased prevalence if technically this contributes to an overall higher overall viral load in the air in indoor settings, for example, in grocery stores. We already know indoors isn’t good, but now with each day, we have more and more people who may be infected and asymptomatic that could be releasing droplets at any given time, in any indoor setting.

Just something I was thinking about.
 
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