FL/GA/SC/NC - Hurricane Idalia, Aug 2023

PayrollNerd

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Some models put at as a Cat 1. Other models seem to have it as a robust storm.
 
93L_tracks_latest.png

Some models put at as a Cat 1. Other models seem to have it as a robust storm.
Either way the rain will be welcome that’s for sure. My oldest is just to the left of the pink line, in the panhandle. I’m just to the right of the black line, south of Tampa.
 

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If a storm forms, the most likely time frame for impacts along Florida’s Gulf Coast would be Tuesday into Wednesday. It again is too early to know exactly what part of Florida would be impacted the most; anywhere from the Panhandle to Southwest Florida should monitor the forecast closely and make preparations this weekend.

At the very least, plan for breezier, stormier weather for the first half of next week, with 2-4″ of rain possible.

The next named storms on the list would be Idalia and then Jose.
 

DeSantis' declaration covers the Gulf coast from the southwestern city of Fort Myers north through Panama City in the Panhandle. Thirty-three of the state's 67 counties are covered in the declaration.

Tropical Storm Idalia is likely to form in the Gulf of Mexico and head toward Florida and the Southeast United States with heavy rain, coastal flooding and strong winds in the week ahead.

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While I'd never wish a tropical storm on anyone, this could be a really helpful thing for Sanibel Island's eco-system recovery after Ian.

We were down on Sanibel last May and saw the destruction (7 months after the hurricane). I was greatly encouraged by the trees, shrubs and flowers that were starting to come back after Ian. What was so discouraging were the low lying marshy areas around San-Cap Rd (northern end of Sanibel). Everything was dead. It used to be densely forested and marshy with fresh water. The hurricane storm surge dumped so much salty water in a stagnant area that it all died from lack of fresh water. Sanibel has been trying to arrange a prescribed burn in that area because all the dead and dried out foliage are a substantial fire hazard.

San-Cap Rd. is the only artery off the islands from northern Sanibel and Captiva Island. The destruction in Maui is a sober reminder of fire risk.


JMO
 
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Tropical Depression 10, heading to Florida, forms in the Gulf of Mexico

The forecasts predict the storm to head towards Panama City to Big Bend to Tampa area.

TD 10 is expected to bring periods of heavy rain on Tuesday and Wednesday with "astronomically high tides' and considers that "This is a water event and not a wind event."


Tropical Depression 10 could affect South Carolina and Georgia next week.


SpaghettiModels.jpg
 
Tropical Depression 10, heading to Florida, forms in the Gulf of Mexico

The forecasts predict the storm to head towards Panama City to Big Bend to Tampa area.

TD 10 is expected to bring periods of heavy rain on Tuesday and Wednesday with "astronomically high tides' and considers that "This is a water event and not a wind event."


Tropical Depression 10 could affect South Carolina and Georgia next week.


SpaghettiModels.jpg
It looks like NC, my state, could get remnants of the storm too.
 
TD 10 is moving at 1 mph! It's not moving and that's not good. Notice the forecast points for 7 pm Sat, 1 pm Sunday, and 1 am Monday. No movement. What on earth? Ugh........

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I've seen storms sit offshore, slowly build then, come roaring inland with walls of water. A tremendous amount of flooding damage when we have a slow storm. So many new residents that don't know flooding is not covered under your homeowners policy.

The track gives you an idea of where it will land but it is not a perfect science. It could teeter to the right and come in a Tampa
 
I've seen storms sit offshore, slowly build then, come roaring inland with walls of water. A tremendous amount of flooding damage when we have a slow storm. So many new residents that don't know flooding is not covered under your homeowners policy.

The track gives you an idea of where it will land but it is not a perfect science. It could teeter to the right and come in a Tampa
I know that's my concern with this storm....:(
 
It looks like NC, my state, could get remnants of the storm too.
My youngest is actually remote camping in western NC. The weather forecast is nearly all rain. She has my SUV with a twin mattress plus a tent.

She’s supposed to drive home Wed. Right into the storm. Not much cell service so not sure if I can even reach her. I think she needs to head west to her Dads place in Knoxville, TN. Maybe find a campground over there somewhere.

But, you know, they think they’re invincible at 26 so there’s that…..
 
TD 10 is moving at 1 mph! It's not moving and that's not good. Notice the forecast points for 7 pm Sat, 1 pm Sunday, and 1 am Monday. No movement. What on earth? Ugh........

AL102023_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png


As of Sunday morning, TD 10 was about 70 miles south-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. The system had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. The storm was moving southeast at 5 mph.

"It is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through early Monday. A faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is expected later on Monday, bringing the system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico," the NHC said. "The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by Tuesday."

Most recent computer models show TD 10 tracking over the panhandle, but rain and wind could impact much of the state. WESH 2 Chief Meteorologist Tony Mainolfi says the timing for landfall appears to be late Tuesday into Wednesday.



Wednesday:

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Thursday:

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Friday:

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