G
Hurricane Dean
- Thread starter Beyond Belief
- Start date
Buzz Mills
New Member
Where did you hear that SS?? Dean will pass very close to the South side of Jamaica. Winds will be well over 100mph, in Jamiaca, very soon.
G
GonzoReiter
Guest
Jamaica is on the "dirty side" of Dean
SeriouslySearching
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145 at the eye tells me they could have worse. Am I wrong?
G
GonzoReiter
Guest
A hurricane's front-right quadrant contains its strongest winds and peak storm surge, and it is more likely to produce the most damage along with tornadoes as it nears shore lines. Down here on the Gulf Coast, we refer to the front-right quadrant as the "dirty side" of a hurricane altho the right-rear quandrant often is just as bad.
Buzz Mills
New Member
The right side of the hurricane is the worst, or "dirty" side.
Dean is still approaching Jamaica. Right now Dean is about 60 miles from Kingston, Jamaica, on the outer edge of Dean's hurricane force winds, about 75mph winds. Over the next 3-4 hours the eye will continue to move closer to Jamaica, and the wind speeds will increase as Dean moves closer. The winds at the eye are 145mph, with gusts up to 180mph, so Jamaica will get hammered.
SeriouslySearching
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Ok I am used to tornados and not hurricanes. Every hurricane is a learning experience from afar. At least, I am trying to learn what to avoid and I will! I have learned that if I ever move to a coastal region...I will pack up and leave as soon as they say, "Hurricane". I will simply pack my stuff and come home to tornado alley!
G
GonzoReiter
Guest
I guess I asked for it, but if you look at the image I attached below...there is a Left and a Right side easily determined. Jamaica is located in the R-F and R-R Quadrant.
My guess is that the yellow track depicted below will be the closest preliminary model for Hurricane "Dean" unless drastic changes occur:
Attachments
G
GonzoReiter
Guest
his excellent blog can be accessed here
and his comment earlier:
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands
Jamaica is already receiving high winds and heavy rain from an outer spiral band. How bad will it get? The big question is if the eyewall will move over the island. Unfortunately for Jamaica, Dean has two eyewalls, forming concentric rings (Figure 1). The inner eyewall is 15 miles in diameter, and the outer eyewall is 37 miles in diameter. Winds of Category 3 and 4 strength are blowing in both eyewalls, as seen in the latest data from the SFMR surface winds taken by the Hurricane Hunters. So, Dean's center has to pass more than 25 miles south of Jamaica for the island to be spared the worst of the hurricane. The nation's capital, Kingston, lies on the southern portion of the island, and will be the hardest-hit major city. The tourist city of Montego Bay is on the northern part of Jamaica, and will fare much better.
and his comment earlier:
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands
Jamaica is already receiving high winds and heavy rain from an outer spiral band. How bad will it get? The big question is if the eyewall will move over the island. Unfortunately for Jamaica, Dean has two eyewalls, forming concentric rings (Figure 1). The inner eyewall is 15 miles in diameter, and the outer eyewall is 37 miles in diameter. Winds of Category 3 and 4 strength are blowing in both eyewalls, as seen in the latest data from the SFMR surface winds taken by the Hurricane Hunters. So, Dean's center has to pass more than 25 miles south of Jamaica for the island to be spared the worst of the hurricane. The nation's capital, Kingston, lies on the southern portion of the island, and will be the hardest-hit major city. The tourist city of Montego Bay is on the northern part of Jamaica, and will fare much better.
poco
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Well, that's what I meant when I said east side, lol, right, east, whatever, but that's what I thought.
AmandaBrown23
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Thanks gonzo!
Marthatex
New Member
Very informative link; thanks GonzoReiter.
Hurricanes are very complicated!!!
Hurricanes are very complicated!!!
SeriouslySearching
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They usually take a right if there is land nearby, I have noticed. Or is it just me?
Buzz Mills
New Member
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DEAN SCRAPING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
JAMAICA...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM DANGRIEGA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
MEXICO.
AT 5 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER IS REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE
NORTHWARD IS DISCONTINUED.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN JAMAICA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS IN THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN BELIZE...AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN BELIZE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...
80 KM...SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A MOTION
BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE PASSING ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEAN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TOMORROW.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...17.3 N...76.8 W.
MOVEMENTTOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.
HEADS-UP JAMAICA
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/024525.shtml?3day?large#contents
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/143525.shtml?5day?large#contents
Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Charley of 2004 was a Category Four hurricane made landfall in Charlotte County, Florida with winds of 150 mph. Hurricane Dennis (pdf) of 2005 struck the island of Cuba as a Category Four hurricane.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DEAN SCRAPING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
JAMAICA...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM DANGRIEGA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
MEXICO.
AT 5 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER IS REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE
NORTHWARD IS DISCONTINUED.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN JAMAICA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS IN THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN BELIZE...AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN BELIZE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...
80 KM...SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A MOTION
BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE PASSING ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEAN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TOMORROW.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...17.3 N...76.8 W.
MOVEMENTTOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.
HEADS-UP JAMAICA
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/024525.shtml?3day?large#contents
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/143525.shtml?5day?large#contents
Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Charley of 2004 was a Category Four hurricane made landfall in Charlotte County, Florida with winds of 150 mph. Hurricane Dennis (pdf) of 2005 struck the island of Cuba as a Category Four hurricane.
Buzz Mills
New Member
It appears that Jamaica was spared the worst of Dean--
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA
AS THE EYE OF DEAN PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH...
...OUTER RAIN BANDS AFFECTING HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...
AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/MEXICO
BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY
SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN JAMAICA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS IN THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD
TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR
ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
AND ABOUT 265MILES...425 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A MOTION
BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN
MAJOR HURRICANES AND ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEAN
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. AN OBSERVATION OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH WAS
REPORTED FROM KINGSTON JAMAICA...AND AN UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATION OF
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH WAS REPORTED FROM LIONEL TOWN JAMAICA.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
HAM RADIO REPORTS INDICATE FLOODED STREETS IN KINGSTON JAMAICA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...17.5 N...77.8 W.
MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
3 and 5 DAY CONES
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/024525.shtml?3day?large#contents
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/143525.shtml?5day?large#contents
Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Charley of 2004 was a Category Four hurricane made landfall in Charlotte County, Florida with winds of 150 mph. Hurricane Dennis (pdf) of 2005 struck the island of Cuba as a Category Four hurricane.
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA
AS THE EYE OF DEAN PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH...
...OUTER RAIN BANDS AFFECTING HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...
AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/MEXICO
BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY
SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN JAMAICA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS IN THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD
TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR
ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
AND ABOUT 265MILES...425 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A MOTION
BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN
MAJOR HURRICANES AND ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEAN
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. AN OBSERVATION OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH WAS
REPORTED FROM KINGSTON JAMAICA...AND AN UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATION OF
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH WAS REPORTED FROM LIONEL TOWN JAMAICA.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
HAM RADIO REPORTS INDICATE FLOODED STREETS IN KINGSTON JAMAICA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...17.5 N...77.8 W.
MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
3 and 5 DAY CONES
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/024525.shtml?3day?large#contents
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/143525.shtml?5day?large#contents
Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Charley of 2004 was a Category Four hurricane made landfall in Charlotte County, Florida with winds of 150 mph. Hurricane Dennis (pdf) of 2005 struck the island of Cuba as a Category Four hurricane.
SeriouslySearching
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Jan 19, 2007
- Messages
- 35,527
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Yes! Prayers were answered as far as Jamaica was concerned! Thank Goodness they were spared such peril!
Now..it is about who is in line for whatever comes and it will remain to be a dire situation.
Now..it is about who is in line for whatever comes and it will remain to be a dire situation.
Buzz Mills
New Member
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007
...DEAN STILL BATTERING JAMAICA...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND BELIZE...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CANCUN ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THE
HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD...AND IS
NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.
AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY
NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN JAMAICA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREAS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD
TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE
BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...
215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 195 MILES...
315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL MOVE AWAY FROM JAMAICA
OVERNIGHT AND PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON MONDAY
MORNING.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND DEAN COULD REACH CATEGORY
FIVE STRENGTH ON MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 925 MB...27.31 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREAS
IN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF
9 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI. EASTERN CUBA COULD
RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N...78.8 W.
MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
3 and 5 DAY CONES
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/024525.shtml?3day?large#contents
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/143525.shtml?5day?large#contents
Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Charley of 2004 was a Category Four hurricane made landfall in Charlotte County, Florida with winds of 150 mph. Hurricane Dennis (pdf) of 2005 struck the island of Cuba as a Category Four hurricane.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007
...DEAN STILL BATTERING JAMAICA...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND BELIZE...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CANCUN ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THE
HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD...AND IS
NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.
AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY
NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN JAMAICA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREAS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD
TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE
BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...
215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 195 MILES...
315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL MOVE AWAY FROM JAMAICA
OVERNIGHT AND PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON MONDAY
MORNING.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND DEAN COULD REACH CATEGORY
FIVE STRENGTH ON MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 925 MB...27.31 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREAS
IN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF
9 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI. EASTERN CUBA COULD
RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N...78.8 W.
MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
3 and 5 DAY CONES
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/024525.shtml?3day?large#contents
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/143525.shtml?5day?large#contents
Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Charley of 2004 was a Category Four hurricane made landfall in Charlotte County, Florida with winds of 150 mph. Hurricane Dennis (pdf) of 2005 struck the island of Cuba as a Category Four hurricane.