Hurricane ERNESTO-Cat 1 expect Cat 3 after leaving Cuba /Heads up FLORIDA, MERGED

[poco]

Breaking News: Just heard Ernesto downgraded to a tropical strom -- go away Ernesto!!!!!!

 

[Shadow205]

Breaking News: Just heard Ernesto downgraded to a tropical strom -- go away Ernesto!!!!!!

Crossing over the mountains of Cuba always knocks them down some but as soon as they get back over that warm water they regain strength.

 

[poco]

Crossing over the mountains of Cuba always knocks them down some but as soon as they get back over that warm water they regain strength.

Thanks so much for the encouraging news.................... :slap:

 

[Shadow205]

Thanks so much for the encouraging news.................... :slap:

LOL :blowkiss:

 

[Shadow205]

Forecasters placed the Florida Keys under a hurricane watch, all tourists were ordered to leave those islands and Gov. Jeb Bush declared a state of emergency Sunday as the first hurricane of the year -- Ernesto -- threatened the entire Florida peninsula.

Unbelievably, after eight hurricanes in the last two years, the state's recurring nightmare is recurring again.

''We need to turn it up a notch here in Florida,'' said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County. ``It looks like this is going to be a Florida storm.''

The latest projected path carried Ernesto's core over Key West and the Lower Keys as a Category 1 hurricane -- and perilously close to Miami-Dade and Broward counties -- by Tuesday. Ultimate landfall could occur near Sarasota-Bradenton or St. Petersburg-Tampa by Wednesday night.

The forecast was highly uncertain and darkly ominous, even though Ernesto was temporarily downgraded to a tropical storm Sunday evening.

>snip>

They emphasized, however, that they expected it to re-intensify overnight and strike Cuba Monday morning as a hurricane.

They warned: No one should take this storm for granted or focus on the downgrade.

''That's a mistake,'' Mayfield said. ``We think it has a good chance to regain hurricane status.''

In addition, Ernesto was growing in size, its squalls stretching 115 miles in each direction.

more at the link http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/15371293.htm

 

[Tom'sGirl]

The thread in the Jury Room needs to be merged into this one (like Tybee did a few storms ago) so that everyone can see it and our resources are all in one place, in my opinion. This is the proper forum, of course.

Oh I agree DK, I have to keep too many windows open so I won't miss anything, it's like playing Bingo with too many cards.:doh:

Actually I don't play Bingo, but just saying...........

 

[Tom'sGirl]

Hey could one of the mods please merge this with the thread in the Up to The Minute fourm...please

I second that pleez! :crazy:

 

[concernedperson]

I always think of hurricanes stopping in the Gulf of Mexico for a spell. Then revving up the engines for an onslaught. It is the fuel needed .It is like those monster truck shows. That is the ongoing image in my mind and it usually occurs that way.

Someone needs to throw a lot of ice in the Gulf of Mexico during the summer.Can we transport it from the North Pole or Antartica? LOL! It is the only solution I can come up with.

 

[Pharlap]

8pm Chicago time new update...

Map automaticly updates itself too!


Tropical Storm ERNESTO

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Cone

Click image to zoom in


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/114506.shtml?5day

 

[Dark Knight]

8pm Chicago time new update...

Map automaticly updates itself too!


Tropical Storm ERNESTO

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Cone

Click image to zoom in


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/114506.shtml?5day

Looks like it might hit about where Ivan the Terrible hit, near Ft. Meyers.

 

[Dark Knight]

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/storms.asp?partner=accuweather&ocean=atlantic&storm=Ernesto&imagetype=move

Be sure to visit the AccuWeather.com special series on Hurricane Katrina - One Year Later.

 

[Dark Knight]

(State College, PA) - Over the next several days, the status of now Tropical Storm Ernesto will be similar to a roller coaster. As it interacts with land, as it did on Sunday, the storm will weaken. Over water, Ernesto could to grow into a category 2 hurricane before making landfall over central Cuba on Monday, then over the western coast of Florida on Wednesday.

During the day on Sunday, Ernesto weakened to a tropical storm as it encountered the mountains of southwestern Haiti. The higher terrain brought enough disruption to the storm to enhance the weakening. Ernesto, however, is forecasted to re-intensify to hurricane strength as the storm moves away from Hispaniola and over the water channel between Cuba and Jamaica.

More at link: http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp

 

[poco]

Well, at least it's moving more easterly - AWAY FROM ME!!!! A little more movement east and it may stay out in the Atlantic (let's all pray). By the time they do figure out where it really is going it will be too late to evacuate anyone ----the people evacuating from the Keys are either going to have to leave soon and drive like hell and get out of Florida completely or fly out - otherwise they might as well stay. Looks like anywhere in Florida right now is touch and go........

 

[dingo]

Im watching this thread and hoping all you guys are going to be OK........ prayers from down under

 

[Pharlap]

Well will have to see when Ernesto get's out of Cuba(hummm now that sounds funny:dance: ..Actually Cuba can keep him...heheheh)

 

[Peter Hamilton]

thans dingo--new forecast track this morning meansthat we in palm beach county will get a direct hit---only 52mph now,once it gets past Cuba,our 87 degree water will strengthen it pretty quickly--85mph s the latest--not many will evacuate witha category one--can't believe we may get our 4th hurricane in 3 years---before that,we only had 1 weak storm (David)1979 in the last 40 years--we have our two battery tv's ready--power usually goes out after 50 mph--that should happen tomorrow nite

 

[Beyond Belief]

Oh, goody, its looks like the east coast is the target. Maybe we'll get lucky and it will keep pushing east.

 

[Pharlap]

Bumping the SELF UDATING map....

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Cone
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/114506.shtml?5day

Click image to zoom in

 

[Cheetah]

Did anyone notice the 5am discussion??

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED DUE TO POSSIBLE
LAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE
MORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF 86-88F AND IN A VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
FORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/280901.shtml?

 

[Pharlap]

Bumping the SELF UDATING map....

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Cone
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/114506.shtml?5day

Click image to zoom in

11am update shows Ernesto looks like he won't stay over eastern Cuba very long......OUCH....
Depending on what station your watching:doh: how long it will stay over land..