Hurricane Florence - September 2018

[MelmothTheLost]

If Ventusky's projection of Florence's trajectory turns out to be correct, then DC and/or New York could be staring down the barrel sometime around the 15th to 17th September.

Weather Forecast Maps

 

[CARIIS]

It moved more to the left --


The deterministic models show increasing southwesterly vertical shear and a less than
favorable mid-tropospheric thermodynamic environment affecting the
tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. This less-than-conducive
environment should induce weakening during this time frame.
Thereafter, and through the remaining forecast, most of the
models show a mid- to upper-level low developing to the south of
Florence in the base of the mid- Atlantic deep-layer trough, which
should promote a somewhat more favorable diffluent upper wind
pattern. This more conducive upper wind pattern, and increasing sea
surface temperatures, is expected to cause Florence to restrengthen.

105 sustained

976 MB _only bolded and colored so we can easily scroll through and see her progression -- lowering pressure translates to intensification and and can kinda act like a thermometer.

cat two

Helene is baking now and is expected to reach tropical storm classification in 24 - 48 hours and be formally named

And then there is what lets call Boogie Man - he is continuing to take on hurricane characteristics and starting the counter clockwise sucking in surrounding air and rotating.

Track Hurricane Florence: Spaghetti models, forecast cone and satellite

Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion

 

[JerseyGirl]

The Category 3 hurricane's maximum sustained winds Wednesday morning are estimated to be 120 mph (195 kph).

Hurricane Florence is centered about 1,405 miles (2,265 kilometers) east-southeast of Bermuda and is moving west-northwest at 10 mph (17 kph).

Hurricane Florence now Category 3, moving toward Bermuda

 

[JerseyGirl]

Hurricane Florence strengthens on possible path to Bermuda

 

[CARIIS]

yuk yuk

looks like it is gonna end up due west


The high pressure (the darker pink circles ABOVE her ) is basically like a brick wall so it will track like under it for lack of a better term

it will kind of be squashed south but forward motion keeps em moving west so it will end up having to due west

then lots depend on the timing and what the high does

yukey

 

[Jax49]

Hurricane Florence, the first major hurricane of the year, could pose a threat to the US East Coast - CNN

Hurricane Florence is still way out in the Atlantic, but the Category 4 storm could threaten the US East Coast by late next week.

The first major hurricane of the 2018 season, Florence on Wednesday afternoon had maximum sustained winds of 130 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. It was about 2,000 miles from the US coastline, still way too far out for a confident landfall prediction.

 

[CARIIS]

953 mb

There fascinating when they go away before landfalling ha !!

now its gonna go up and down for a while

Eyewall replacement cycle

naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones, generally with winds greater than 185 km/h (115 mph), or major hurricanes (Category 3 or above). When tropical cyclones reach this intensity, and the eyewall contracts or is already sufficiently small, some of the outer rainbands may strengthen and organize into a ring of thunderstorms—an outer eyewall—that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and angular momentum. Since the strongest winds are in a cyclone's eyewall, the tropical cyclone usually weakens during this phase, as the inner wall is "choked" by the outer wall. Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely, and the storm may re-intensify.[1]


here is what replacement looks like !

Eyewall replacement cycle - Wikipedia

 

[CARIIS]

964 mb

up since last ---should be weakening for a little bit !

then it will do the opposite

Some model runs say high pressure above it will make her go more west

others say high will weaken some and she could push more northern

Pressure much more informative in terms of what she up to !!

 

[MelmothTheLost]

Ventusky's projection now shows Florence close to shore anywhere between Virginia Beach and Philly by Thursday the 13th with a 12-14m swell.

Weather Forecast Maps

 

[MelmothTheLost]

In fact the wind map suggests Florence will be pushed back out to sea on 14th and 15th and head up towards Nova Scotia. That may mean Ireland and then the UK getting a hammering a week or so later.

Weather Forecast Maps

 

[JerseyGirl]

Meteorologists watching Hurricane Florence closely, with potential for East Coast landfall

Various hurricane forecasting models do not agree on the path Florence could take from there — some say it could make landfall in the Carolinas or even approach the coast near the Chesapeake Bay, while others predict a turn out to sea before the storm ever reaches U.S. coastline.

Hurricane center forecasters said “it is far too soon to speculate what, if any impacts Florence may have on the U.S. East Coast next week.” But they said the storm could create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents at some beaches as early as this weekend.

 

[Hatfield]

964 mb

up since last ---should be weakening for a little bit !

then it will do the opposite

Some model runs say high pressure above it will make her go more west

others say high will weaken some and she could push more northern

Pressure much more informative in terms of what she up to !!

Hello Cariis,

I didnt know you were also really good at knowing about hurricanes. You have been my airline disaster go-to person (lol) and now I can put you on my list of hurricane go-to people. LOL

I find them fascinating like I do with tornadoes too.

I dont like that they can kill and destroy property but I find mother nature events like this quite fascinating and like to learn from them.

Thanks to you and others here who keep everyone posted on the updates for the hurricanes. It is much appreciated.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Spaghetti model of Florence:

Hurricane Florence could pose major threat to East Coast next week - CNN

 

[MelmothTheLost]

Anyone seen Henry? He was really useful on the hurricane threads last year.

 

[Hatfield]

Spaghetti model of Florence:

Hurricane Florence could pose major threat to East Coast next week - CNN

I posted this below in Gordons and meant to post it here under the map.
==============================
Wow. Its definitely heading toward the east coast. Unless it makes a turn, the east coast could be in for a wallup.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Anyone seen Henry? He was really useful on the hurricane threads last year.

No.

 

[MelmothTheLost]

No.

I've left a note on his profile page. It looks as though he hasn't posted since late July but whether he's been reading without posting is anyone's guess.

 

[MelmothTheLost]

Ventusky is now showing Long Island taking the brunt of Florence on Friday, 14th before tracking NE towards RI on 15th, albeit weakening by then and maybe just a tropical storm.

Weather Forecast Maps

However there seems to be something brewing off the Carolinas on 16th though it doesn't look to be as intense as Florence.

Weather Forecast Maps

 

[JerseyGirl]

Group of simulations from American (blue) and European (red) computer models from Wednesday night (previous model run) and Thursday (most recent model run). Each color strand represents a different model simulation with slight tweaks to initial conditions. Note that the strands are clustered together where the forecast track is most confident, but they diverge where the course of the storm is less certain. The thick bold red line is the average of all of the European model simulations, while the blue is the average of all the American model simulations. The thinner bold lines are the main or operational simulations from each model. (StormVistaWxModels.com)

Florence weakens to tropical storm but forecast to regain strength and draw close to East Coast

 

[Jax49]

Florence, Currently a Tropical Storm, Poses an Increasing Hurricane Danger to the U.S. East Coast Next Week | The Weather Channel

• Florence has weakened due to wind shear, but it will reintensify next week.
• Florence will generate swells that will begin to affect the U.S. East Coast this weekend.
• There is still considerable uncertainty on Florence's path next week.
• However, the threat of landfall or a close brush along parts of the E. Coast is increasing.
• Interests in Bermuda and the eastern U.S. should monitor Florence's forecast.