Hurricane Florence - September 2018

Discussion in 'Weather' started by MelmothTheLost, Sep 4, 2018.

  1. MelmothTheLost

    MelmothTheLost Well-Known Member

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    If Ventusky's projection of Florence's trajectory turns out to be correct, then DC and/or New York could be staring down the barrel sometime around the 15th to 17th September.

    Weather Forecast Maps
     
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  2. CARIIS

    CARIIS Spelling Bee Winner - Kindergarden!

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    It moved more to the left --


    The deterministic models show increasing southwesterly vertical shear and a less than
    favorable mid-tropospheric thermodynamic environment affecting the
    tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. This less-than-conducive
    environment should induce weakening during this time frame.
    Thereafter, and through the remaining forecast, most of the
    models show a mid- to upper-level low developing to the south of
    Florence in the base of the mid- Atlantic deep-layer trough, which
    should promote a somewhat more favorable diffluent upper wind
    pattern. This more conducive upper wind pattern, and increasing sea
    surface temperatures, is expected to cause Florence to restrengthen.

    105 sustained

    976 MB _only bolded and colored so we can easily scroll through and see her progression -- lowering pressure translates to intensification and and can kinda act like a thermometer.

    cat two

    Helene is baking now and is expected to reach tropical storm classification in 24 - 48 hours and be formally named

    And then there is what lets call Boogie Man - he is continuing to take on hurricane characteristics and starting the counter clockwise sucking in surrounding air and rotating.

    [​IMG]


    Track Hurricane Florence: Spaghetti models, forecast cone and satellite

    Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion
     
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2018
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  3. JerseyGirl

    JerseyGirl Staff Member Staff Member Forum Coordinators

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    The Category 3 hurricane's maximum sustained winds Wednesday morning are estimated to be 120 mph (195 kph).

    Hurricane Florence is centered about 1,405 miles (2,265 kilometers) east-southeast of Bermuda and is moving west-northwest at 10 mph (17 kph).

    Hurricane Florence now Category 3, moving toward Bermuda
     
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  4. JerseyGirl

    JerseyGirl Staff Member Staff Member Forum Coordinators

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  5. CARIIS

    CARIIS Spelling Bee Winner - Kindergarden!

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    yuk yuk

    looks like it is gonna end up due west


    The high pressure (the darker pink circles ABOVE her ) is basically like a brick wall so it will track like under it for lack of a better term

    it will kind of be squashed south but forward motion keeps em moving west so it will end up having to due west

    then lots depend on the timing and what the high does

    yukey



    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2018
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  6. Jax49

    Jax49 Florida Native

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    Hurricane Florence, the first major hurricane of the year, could pose a threat to the US East Coast - CNN

     
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  7. CARIIS

    CARIIS Spelling Bee Winner - Kindergarden!

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    953 mb

    There fascinating when they go away before landfalling ha !!

    now its gonna go up and down for a while

    Eyewall replacement cycle

    naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones, generally with winds greater than 185 km/h (115 mph), or major hurricanes (Category 3 or above). When tropical cyclones reach this intensity, and the eyewall contracts or is already sufficiently small, some of the outer rainbands may strengthen and organize into a ring of thunderstorms—an outer eyewall—that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and angular momentum. Since the strongest winds are in a cyclone's eyewall, the tropical cyclone usually weakens during this phase, as the inner wall is "choked" by the outer wall. Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely, and the storm may re-intensify.[1]



    here is what replacement looks like !



    Eyewall replacement cycle - Wikipedia
     
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2018
  8. CARIIS

    CARIIS Spelling Bee Winner - Kindergarden!

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    964 mb

    up since last ---should be weakening for a little bit !

    then it will do the opposite

    Some model runs say high pressure above it will make her go more west

    others say high will weaken some and she could push more northern

    Pressure much more informative in terms of what she up to !!
     
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  9. MelmothTheLost

    MelmothTheLost Well-Known Member

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    Ventusky's projection now shows Florence close to shore anywhere between Virginia Beach and Philly by Thursday the 13th with a 12-14m swell.

    Weather Forecast Maps
     
  10. MelmothTheLost

    MelmothTheLost Well-Known Member

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    In fact the wind map suggests Florence will be pushed back out to sea on 14th and 15th and head up towards Nova Scotia. That may mean Ireland and then the UK getting a hammering a week or so later. :eek:

    Weather Forecast Maps
     
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  11. JerseyGirl

    JerseyGirl Staff Member Staff Member Forum Coordinators

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    [​IMG]

    Meteorologists watching Hurricane Florence closely, with potential for East Coast landfall

    Various hurricane forecasting models do not agree on the path Florence could take from there — some say it could make landfall in the Carolinas or even approach the coast near the Chesapeake Bay, while others predict a turn out to sea before the storm ever reaches U.S. coastline.

    Hurricane center forecasters said “it is far too soon to speculate what, if any impacts Florence may have on the U.S. East Coast next week.” But they said the storm could create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents at some beaches as early as this weekend.
     
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  12. Hatfield

    Hatfield Well-Known Member

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    Hello Cariis,

    I didnt know you were also really good at knowing about hurricanes. You have been my airline disaster go-to person (lol) and now I can put you on my list of hurricane go-to people. LOL :)

    I find them fascinating like I do with tornadoes too.

    I dont like that they can kill and destroy property but I find mother nature events like this quite fascinating and like to learn from them.

    Thanks to you and others here who keep everyone posted on the updates for the hurricanes. It is much appreciated.
     
  13. JerseyGirl

    JerseyGirl Staff Member Staff Member Forum Coordinators

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  14. MelmothTheLost

    MelmothTheLost Well-Known Member

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    Anyone seen Henry? He was really useful on the hurricane threads last year.
     
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  15. Hatfield

    Hatfield Well-Known Member

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  16. JerseyGirl

    JerseyGirl Staff Member Staff Member Forum Coordinators

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    No. :(
     
  17. MelmothTheLost

    MelmothTheLost Well-Known Member

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    I've left a note on his profile page. It looks as though he hasn't posted since late July but whether he's been reading without posting is anyone's guess.
     
  18. MelmothTheLost

    MelmothTheLost Well-Known Member

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    Ventusky is now showing Long Island taking the brunt of Florence on Friday, 14th before tracking NE towards RI on 15th, albeit weakening by then and maybe just a tropical storm.

    Weather Forecast Maps

    However there seems to be something brewing off the Carolinas on 16th though it doesn't look to be as intense as Florence.

    Weather Forecast Maps
     
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  19. JerseyGirl

    JerseyGirl Staff Member Staff Member Forum Coordinators

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    [​IMG]
    Group of simulations from American (blue) and European (red) computer models from Wednesday night (previous model run) and Thursday (most recent model run). Each color strand represents a different model simulation with slight tweaks to initial conditions. Note that the strands are clustered together where the forecast track is most confident, but they diverge where the course of the storm is less certain. The thick bold red line is the average of all of the European model simulations, while the blue is the average of all the American model simulations. The thinner bold lines are the main or operational simulations from each model. (StormVistaWxModels.com)

    Florence weakens to tropical storm but forecast to regain strength and draw close to East Coast
     
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  20. Jax49

    Jax49 Florida Native

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    Florence, Currently a Tropical Storm, Poses an Increasing Hurricane Danger to the U.S. East Coast Next Week | The Weather Channel

     

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