Hurricane Matthew - Sept-Oct 2016
- Thread starter Coldpizza
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eucalyptuz
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Yes. I think I'll save my panic for tomorrow too, although I did fill the car, checked the gas bottles and bought water and batteries 
I am in Orlando and not too many of the predictions have Matthew spending much time inland but I think we'll get a much better idea tomorrow.
Wishing all on the SE coast a safe week!
(Psst Matthew, please go find an uninhabited part of the ocean to play in!)
I am in Orlando and not too many of the predictions have Matthew spending much time inland but I think we'll get a much better idea tomorrow.
Wishing all on the SE coast a safe week!
(Psst Matthew, please go find an uninhabited part of the ocean to play in!)
CARIIS
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Yes. I think I'll save my panic for tomorrow too, although I did fill the car, checked the gas bottles and bought water and batteries
I am in Orlando and not too many of the predictions have Matthew spending much time inland but I think we'll get a much better idea tomorrow.
Wishing all on the SE coast a safe week!
(Psst Matthew, please go find an uninhabited part of the ocean to play in!)
I did the car this AM - but I do think a visit to Lowes tomm is a def, !! Not looking good and it seems like they are late . If I was not interested in hurricanes, and just followed local braodcasts, I think they have done a horrile job if the Euro model pans out. moo
CARIIS
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Yes. I think I'll save my panic for tomorrow too, although I did fill the car, checked the gas bottles and bought water and batteries
I am in Orlando and not too many of the predictions have Matthew spending much time inland but I think we'll get a much better idea tomorrow.
Wishing all on the SE coast a safe week!
(Psst Matthew, please go find an uninhabited part of the ocean to play in!)
Nothing can really do now at this time , but when you wake up make sure you got some stuff - Mathew shall be visiting central FL!!
In fact, I think my shopping list may include a batt fan!! If I had money I would go buy a generator that can run AC HA!
Thats from playing around on line with a bunch of stuff -- opinion has drastically changed!
ATasteOfHoney
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Yes. I think I'll save my panic for tomorrow too, although I did fill the car, checked the gas bottles and bought water and batteries
I am in Orlando and not too many of the predictions have Matthew spending much time inland but I think we'll get a much better idea tomorrow.
Wishing all on the SE coast a safe week!
(Psst Matthew, please go find an uninhabited part of the ocean to play in!)
I am panicking now & I even have a getaway plan....it may not be "away" enough! Yikes!
Cariis's post #20 is a real eye opener. It included a live feed regarding the predicted Euro models & it wasn't pretty at all!
Stay tuned....stay alert!
Pamela_Brewer
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Meet "Matthew"
Check out @Sweettearulz's Tweet: https://twitter.com/Sweettearulz/status/783395856074539008?s=09
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10153862440030496&substory_index=0&id=114256800495
Check out @Sweettearulz's Tweet: https://twitter.com/Sweettearulz/status/783395856074539008?s=09
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10153862440030496&substory_index=0&id=114256800495
gregjrichards
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Meet "Matthew"
Check out @Sweettearulz's Tweet: https://twitter.com/Sweettearulz/status/783395856074539008?s=09
It's evil looking in that photo. Please keep safe all of you and follow the safety protocols of the authorities. Keep us posted how you are doing if at all possible.
Coldpizza
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Dangerous Hurricane Matthew barrels toward Bahamas as Florida prepares
OCTOBER 5, 2016 6:16 AM
Hurricane Matthew, blamed for 11 deaths so far, weakened to a Category 3 after making landfall in Cuba, its maximum sustained winds dropping to 125 mph by dawn Wednesday. But forecasters expect it to regain strength as it churns toward the Bahamas, and then tracks perilously close to Florida.
The storm could potentially make landfall Thursday night somewhere along the coast of Florida, the first time the state will take a direct hit from a major storm in more than a decade.
Matthews outer bands were still hundreds of miles from Florida, but it caused long lines at gas stations and grocery stores. Along Floridas beaches, residents were installing hurricane shutters and moving watercraft out of harms way, while tourists were packing up.
[...]
Emergencies have been declared in four states all of Florida and South Carolina, eastern and central North Carolina and southeastern Georgia.
In Florida, Broward County schools will be open Wednesday, but closed Thursday and Friday. Shelter locations were announced in several Broward cities where flooding is normally a problem during storms. A decision about whether to close schools in Miami-Dade will be announced Thursday.
Most of the states coastal areas were under a hurricane watch and Gov. Rick Scott sounded a grim reminder Tuesday about the devastating cost of not being prepared.
OCTOBER 5, 2016 6:16 AM
Hurricane Matthew, blamed for 11 deaths so far, weakened to a Category 3 after making landfall in Cuba, its maximum sustained winds dropping to 125 mph by dawn Wednesday. But forecasters expect it to regain strength as it churns toward the Bahamas, and then tracks perilously close to Florida.
The storm could potentially make landfall Thursday night somewhere along the coast of Florida, the first time the state will take a direct hit from a major storm in more than a decade.
Matthews outer bands were still hundreds of miles from Florida, but it caused long lines at gas stations and grocery stores. Along Floridas beaches, residents were installing hurricane shutters and moving watercraft out of harms way, while tourists were packing up.
[...]
Emergencies have been declared in four states all of Florida and South Carolina, eastern and central North Carolina and southeastern Georgia.
In Florida, Broward County schools will be open Wednesday, but closed Thursday and Friday. Shelter locations were announced in several Broward cities where flooding is normally a problem during storms. A decision about whether to close schools in Miami-Dade will be announced Thursday.
Most of the states coastal areas were under a hurricane watch and Gov. Rick Scott sounded a grim reminder Tuesday about the devastating cost of not being prepared.
Coldpizza
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Here's What We Know: Hurricane Matthew's Impact On The Coast
Were all keeping a close watch on Hurricane Matthew as it could impact the North Carolina coast over the weekend.
NC Coastal Threat
The storm will make a track close to the coast, and even though the latest forecast track keeps the center of the storm off the coast we will still watch and wait.
Even without a direct hit, a track just offshore would still bring impacts of wind, rain, and storm surge to the beaches
State Of Emergency
Gov. Pat McCrory has declared a state of emergency for 66 counties in both the central and eastern parts of the state.
Alamance, Anson, Beaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Brunswick, Camden, Carteret, Columbus, Craven, Cumberland, Currituck, Dare, Davidson, Davie, Duplin, Durham, Edgecombe, Forsyth, Franklin, Gates, Granville, Greene, Guilford, Halifax, Harnett, Hertford, Hoke, Hyde, Johnston, Jones, Lee, Lenoir, Martin, Montgomery, Moore, Nash, New Hanover, Northampton, Onslow, Orange, Pamlico, Pasquotank, Pender, Perquimans, Person, Pitt, Randolph, Richmond, Robeson, Rockingham, Sampson, Scotland, Stokes, Surry, Tyrrell, Vance, Wake, Warren, Washington, Wayne, Wilson, and Yadkin counties.
Were all keeping a close watch on Hurricane Matthew as it could impact the North Carolina coast over the weekend.
NC Coastal Threat
The storm will make a track close to the coast, and even though the latest forecast track keeps the center of the storm off the coast we will still watch and wait.
Even without a direct hit, a track just offshore would still bring impacts of wind, rain, and storm surge to the beaches
State Of Emergency
Gov. Pat McCrory has declared a state of emergency for 66 counties in both the central and eastern parts of the state.
Alamance, Anson, Beaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Brunswick, Camden, Carteret, Columbus, Craven, Cumberland, Currituck, Dare, Davidson, Davie, Duplin, Durham, Edgecombe, Forsyth, Franklin, Gates, Granville, Greene, Guilford, Halifax, Harnett, Hertford, Hoke, Hyde, Johnston, Jones, Lee, Lenoir, Martin, Montgomery, Moore, Nash, New Hanover, Northampton, Onslow, Orange, Pamlico, Pasquotank, Pender, Perquimans, Person, Pitt, Randolph, Richmond, Robeson, Rockingham, Sampson, Scotland, Stokes, Surry, Tyrrell, Vance, Wake, Warren, Washington, Wayne, Wilson, and Yadkin counties.
BetteDavisEyes
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raying: for the safety of everyone in the path of Hurricane Matthew.
Coldpizza
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Haiti Wakes up to Devastation
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/video/haiti-wakes-up-to-devastation
Interactive wind map/timeline.
https://www.windytv.com
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/video/haiti-wakes-up-to-devastation
Interactive wind map/timeline.
https://www.windytv.com
CARIIS
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Oh good, the trip throurgh Cuba did upset him a little more than anticpated!!
The satellite presentation of Matthew has degraded since its
interaction with the mountains terrain of eastern Cuba with the
eye no longer discernible ( could just be eyewall reformation ) in infrared satellite pictures. Data from
the Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft show that Matthew has
weakened slightly. The aircraft measured peak 700-mb flight-level
winds of 118 kt and SFMR winds of 109 kt to the northeast of the
center. Based on these data the initial wind speed has been lowered
to 110 kt. Matthew will be moving over sea surface temperatures of
29 to 30 degrees celsius and the shear is expected to remain low (bad)
during the next couple of days. These conditions should allow some
slight restrengthening while it moves through the Bahamas.
Increasing shear later in the forecast period is likely to cause
gradual weakening.
Matthew is moving northward or 350/8 kt. A northwestward turn is
expected to occur today as the ridge to the north of Matthew builds
westward. This should steer the hurricane through the Bahamas and
near the East Coast of Florida during the next 48 hours. After that
time, the global models turn the hurricane northward, then
northeastward when a ridge to the northeast of Matthew shifts
eastward and a mid- to upper-level trough approaches the eastern
United States. The 0000 UTC GFS has shifted slightly west of the
previous run, and is now close to the UKMET and ecwmf tracks. The
new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous advisory through
72 hours, and shows a track very close to much of the East Coast
of the Florida Peninsula. Only a slight deviation to the west of
forecast track could result in landfall in Florida. The last few
iterations of the global models have been trending toward a solution
in which the trough is not deep enough to completely lift Matthew
northeastward. As a result, the NHC track has been shifted
significantly southward at day 5, but it remains well north of
the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models.
Key messages:
1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
portions of the warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas.
Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other
government officials in those countries.
2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this
far in advance. For example, only a small deviation of the track to
the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep
all of the hurricane-force winds offshore. It will likely take
another day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United
States to clarify.
3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect Georgia,
South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend,
even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to
specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the
remainder of the U.S. East Coast farther to the north. At a
minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely
along much of the U.S. East Coast later this week and weekend.
4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing potential storm surge
flooding maps, and prototype storm surge watch/warning graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the potential storm surge
flooding map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In
addition, because the flooding map is based on inputs that extend
out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding
potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Tropical-Storm-Matthew
The satellite presentation of Matthew has degraded since its
interaction with the mountains terrain of eastern Cuba with the
eye no longer discernible ( could just be eyewall reformation ) in infrared satellite pictures. Data from
the Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft show that Matthew has
weakened slightly. The aircraft measured peak 700-mb flight-level
winds of 118 kt and SFMR winds of 109 kt to the northeast of the
center. Based on these data the initial wind speed has been lowered
to 110 kt. Matthew will be moving over sea surface temperatures of
29 to 30 degrees celsius and the shear is expected to remain low (bad)
during the next couple of days. These conditions should allow some
slight restrengthening while it moves through the Bahamas.
Increasing shear later in the forecast period is likely to cause
gradual weakening.
Matthew is moving northward or 350/8 kt. A northwestward turn is
expected to occur today as the ridge to the north of Matthew builds
westward. This should steer the hurricane through the Bahamas and
near the East Coast of Florida during the next 48 hours. After that
time, the global models turn the hurricane northward, then
northeastward when a ridge to the northeast of Matthew shifts
eastward and a mid- to upper-level trough approaches the eastern
United States. The 0000 UTC GFS has shifted slightly west of the
previous run, and is now close to the UKMET and ecwmf tracks. The
new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous advisory through
72 hours, and shows a track very close to much of the East Coast
of the Florida Peninsula. Only a slight deviation to the west of
forecast track could result in landfall in Florida. The last few
iterations of the global models have been trending toward a solution
in which the trough is not deep enough to completely lift Matthew
northeastward. As a result, the NHC track has been shifted
significantly southward at day 5, but it remains well north of
the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models.
Key messages:
1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
portions of the warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas.
Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other
government officials in those countries.
2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this
far in advance. For example, only a small deviation of the track to
the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep
all of the hurricane-force winds offshore. It will likely take
another day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United
States to clarify.
3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect Georgia,
South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend,
even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to
specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the
remainder of the U.S. East Coast farther to the north. At a
minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely
along much of the U.S. East Coast later this week and weekend.
4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing potential storm surge
flooding maps, and prototype storm surge watch/warning graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the potential storm surge
flooding map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In
addition, because the flooding map is based on inputs that extend
out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding
potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Tropical-Storm-Matthew
CARIIS
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A tid bit for folks dont follow hurricanes - the pressure given in each adverisy is super important.The lower the worse, but how I "use" it is if has dropped from the last run- the hurricane is getting stronger
BUT, at the time of the model run when they are getting wind speeds the "machine" has not really cranked up yet.
\
So if it (pressure and by how much from last run) is lower than last run, the winds at the next run are going to be worse.
Kinda like it takes time, even tho the throttles have been pushed forward on an airliner there is a delay in increased thrust!
You can then, also, anticpate the increase ,sort of , of winds in the next run. Typically the pressures dont go up or down more than a couple of a millibars.
He really blew up quick
So if ya look at the wind speeds compared to the millibars in the last run the next run is where you will see the actual degree of wind speed increase
EX:
A couple of days ago pressure 979/100 mph, then next run pressure 968 pretty quick drop by more than a couple of millibars.. At that time winds reported at 100. But the pressure ia dropping.
Watch what happens at the next run (to the actual speeds) big jump.. -.
There is a correlation between runs but it is like it takes time (the next advisory) before you see wind increase based on the decline or increse in presurre in wind speeds on the following run -- whew those last three words are what I have been tying ot point out!
Feel like I am garbling this - it s like a darn word problem which i Dispisesd.
Take note of pressures - notice trends and then further down the line you will see , in dealyed fashion the actual wind speeds - hum maybe that is better !!
Not trying to be a smarty pants here. But this is turning into serious cra#.
Have no idea who is or is not a hurricane enthusist. Hope not to insult anyone. Tid bits:
"
Consisely stated "Sheer " is either good or bad. A lot of sheer sheers the hurricane apart, while little or no sheer allows allows the machine to do whatever the hell it wants!
Steering currents as they sound - create the highway for it to follow.
The water temp is huge, typically they need at least 80 to start. It is going to start to go over water that is 89, very not good!
This guy has potential to be a very bad boy, Casue now it does not seem as if he is gonna plow into land. Which translates to he, in all liklihood he is not gonna diminsih in intensity the way a typical storm does at landfall, casue his mouth is staying in super hot water the whole trek up FL.
He is gonna keep getting energy even tho one half is over land, the other half is sweeping up all the energy from thw warm waters.
He will proably do this one or two times:
Not gonna even try to put in my own words!
Eyewall replacement cycles, also calledconcentric eyewall cycles, naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones, generally with winds greater than 185 km/h (115 mph), or major hurricanes (Category 3 or above). When tropical cyclones reach this intensity, and the eyewall contracts or is already sufficiently small, some of the outer rainbands may strengthen and organize into a ring of thunderstorms—an outer eyewall—that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and angular momentum. Since the strongest winds are in a cyclone's eyewall, the tropical cyclone usually weakens during this phase, as the inner wall is "choked" by the outer wall. Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely, and the storm may re-intensify.
And finally , visually do the clock , from noon to 3 - if you are where it is gonna be "hitting" you in noon to three quadrant, your experince is going to be drastically different than if the back end (6-to 9) is going over you
Troughs , in my head, are like big supermans (or batmans!) and they like push the storm around.
Hope this helps a little
The way it looks now Oralndo and Titsvile are going to get the noon to three quadriant and this is not nice!!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eyewall_replacement_cycle
BUT, at the time of the model run when they are getting wind speeds the "machine" has not really cranked up yet.
\
So if it (pressure and by how much from last run) is lower than last run, the winds at the next run are going to be worse.
Kinda like it takes time, even tho the throttles have been pushed forward on an airliner there is a delay in increased thrust!
You can then, also, anticpate the increase ,sort of , of winds in the next run. Typically the pressures dont go up or down more than a couple of a millibars.
He really blew up quick
So if ya look at the wind speeds compared to the millibars in the last run the next run is where you will see the actual degree of wind speed increase
EX:
A couple of days ago pressure 979/100 mph, then next run pressure 968 pretty quick drop by more than a couple of millibars.. At that time winds reported at 100. But the pressure ia dropping.
Watch what happens at the next run (to the actual speeds) big jump.. -.
There is a correlation between runs but it is like it takes time (the next advisory) before you see wind increase based on the decline or increse in presurre in wind speeds on the following run -- whew those last three words are what I have been tying ot point out!
Feel like I am garbling this - it s like a darn word problem which i Dispisesd.
Take note of pressures - notice trends and then further down the line you will see , in dealyed fashion the actual wind speeds - hum maybe that is better !!
Not trying to be a smarty pants here. But this is turning into serious cra#.
Have no idea who is or is not a hurricane enthusist. Hope not to insult anyone. Tid bits:
"
Consisely stated "Sheer " is either good or bad. A lot of sheer sheers the hurricane apart, while little or no sheer allows allows the machine to do whatever the hell it wants!
Steering currents as they sound - create the highway for it to follow.
The water temp is huge, typically they need at least 80 to start. It is going to start to go over water that is 89, very not good!
This guy has potential to be a very bad boy, Casue now it does not seem as if he is gonna plow into land. Which translates to he, in all liklihood he is not gonna diminsih in intensity the way a typical storm does at landfall, casue his mouth is staying in super hot water the whole trek up FL.
He is gonna keep getting energy even tho one half is over land, the other half is sweeping up all the energy from thw warm waters.
He will proably do this one or two times:
Not gonna even try to put in my own words!
Eyewall replacement cycles, also calledconcentric eyewall cycles, naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones, generally with winds greater than 185 km/h (115 mph), or major hurricanes (Category 3 or above). When tropical cyclones reach this intensity, and the eyewall contracts or is already sufficiently small, some of the outer rainbands may strengthen and organize into a ring of thunderstorms—an outer eyewall—that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and angular momentum. Since the strongest winds are in a cyclone's eyewall, the tropical cyclone usually weakens during this phase, as the inner wall is "choked" by the outer wall. Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely, and the storm may re-intensify.
And finally , visually do the clock , from noon to 3 - if you are where it is gonna be "hitting" you in noon to three quadrant, your experince is going to be drastically different than if the back end (6-to 9) is going over you
Troughs , in my head, are like big supermans (or batmans!) and they like push the storm around.
Hope this helps a little
The way it looks now Oralndo and Titsvile are going to get the noon to three quadriant and this is not nice!!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eyewall_replacement_cycle
Coldpizza
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[video=youtube;H52ZaUk02Io]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H52ZaUk02Io[/video]
https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherChannel/?hc_ref=NEWSFEED&fref=nf
You may want to turn your speakers down first.
https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherChannel/?hc_ref=NEWSFEED&fref=nf
You may want to turn your speakers down first.
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Looks like I've been sparred this hurricane. Good thing, because I left my Sandy-devastated home in March in anticipation of it being elevated and I still haven't returned.
praying for everyone's safety....
praying for everyone's safety....
I was in Cuba during a Category 3 storm and I was so impressed with how the community responded to ensure that everyone was safe. The biggest danger during a hurricane is flying debris. Everyone went into action to secure absolutely everything. I read a couple of days ago that, in Cuba, lights were removed from traffic light standards to ensure that they didn't become flying debris. When I was there, deck chairs were put into swimming pools, small boats and catamarans were tied to buildings. Everyone was safe after the hurricane.
In Savannah, no one seems too concerned, perhaps because for the past couple of decades storms have blown by and hit South Carolina. I hope Savannah is lucky again this time. The general mood is that it will be nothing more than a bit of rain from a tropical storm.
Regardless, I'm going to pick up a few supplies - just in case.
In Savannah, no one seems too concerned, perhaps because for the past couple of decades storms have blown by and hit South Carolina. I hope Savannah is lucky again this time. The general mood is that it will be nothing more than a bit of rain from a tropical storm.
Regardless, I'm going to pick up a few supplies - just in case.
eucalyptuz
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Just got the notification that Orange county schools are following Broward county's lead and closing Thursday and Friday.
Be safe all.
Be safe all.
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My daughter moved to Orlando in 2009 to start college and she's still there after college, found a job in Florida. This is her first "real" hurricane experience, she wasn't here in NJ during over devastation from Sandy in 2012.