I'm squishy in my beliefs. I find DB's statements and behavior suspect, and that - combined with the extremely unlikely kidnapping scenario and statistical improbability thereof - concerns me greatly. But without more evidence, I just can't say at this point that I believe with all my heart she is guilty of harming or disposing of Lisa. I do firmly believe, though, that she at the very least knows more than she has shared.
Your opinion matches mine pretty close. I don't put as much emphasis on statistics as most others though. Everything else is spot on.