Madeleine McCann: German Prisoner Identified as Suspect, #36

[Dave55]

No

He is very much still in prison but through both of his trials most media declared the evidence to be powerful and convincing. Just like they will about the evidence against CB, if it ever does go to a trial. I'm very cynical, I think the journalists just want there to be a trial. It would be a huge media event. They'll back the German prosecutors all the way imo (even if they know very well there's no big evidence being kept secret)

Hopefully if there is a trial we can judge how strong the evidence is

 

[frank-cole]

Right.

If you look at it as HCW creating a theory of the case, it makes some sense. CB doesn't appear to have had a fixed abode at the time. He went somewhere late at night where he believed he would be safe. But maybe he did not dispose of the body there because it is a place connected to him.

In a case I have mentioned here a few times, police had the correct theory that the body was dumped in water, but mistakenly assumed it must be a river or old quarry close at hand. In fact it was over 100km away. Without knowing exactly where to look, the body would not be found except by accident.

If CB was travelling somewhere else, the disposal site could actually be quite far from 5a

“We need some more information from people, places he has lived, so we can target these places especially and search there for Madeleine”
HCW made this comment in 2020 shortly after making the appeal (interview with Martin Brunt - sky news). I wonder if they have information to suggest that part of the crime, the series of events, may have been indoors or whether this was their initial hypothesis pre any further information that came in.

 

[Lyall0814]

Hopefully if there is a trial we can judge how strong the evidence is

Somehow I think we might not agree on how strong it is

 

[Consider Dudley]

Nah. When German prosecutors tell the world they're 100% certain of course the journalists are going to be excited and almost all will believe them. Unless they have a reason not to, and so far only MWT amongst the media folk has bothered to have a look to see if there is one.

I don't think you're crediting news journalists with very much intelligence or professionalism tbh. It's not a case of "believing", it's a case of reporting what has been said in such a way as to attract clicks and readership. And of course there is just as much mileage in challenging the investigative narrative as there is in simply reporting it, as MWT has proven (and in fact has made a career out of).

 

[Dave55]

Somehow I think we might not agree on how strong it is

HCW seems to think we would.
I think we can all agree if he was found guilty on evidence similar to the Stone it wouldn't be acceptable

 

[Lyall0814]

HCW seems to think we would.
I think we can all agree if he was found guilty on evidence similar to the Stone it wouldn't be acceptable

Amen Dave. Couldn't agree with you more.

 

[frank-cole]

I think the answer to this is yes… and no.

For example, we know that HB gave a compelling statement regarding CB but we don’t know specifically what he said.

Similarly, we know there is a biographical word document but we don’t know what it says.

If there is a very strong piece of physical evidence like a photo that has been found in CB’s possession then the case is far more clear cut. If this is the case, I can’t understand the time the investigation is taking, why witnesses have said the investigation is stalled or why HCW has equivocated on the charge.

IMO they’ll have that

I think the answer to this is yes… and no.

For example, we know that HB gave a compelling statement regarding CB but we don’t know specifically what he said.

Similarly, we know there is a biographical word document but we don’t know what it says.

If there is a very strong piece of physical evidence like a photo that has been found in CB’s possession then the case is far more clear cut. If this is the case, I can’t understand the time the investigation is taking, why witnesses have said the investigation is stalled or why HCW has on the charge

IMO the concrete evidence is a photo or video of MM deceased, found amongst CB’s belongings from the apartment search in 2018. HCW was quite specific about what type of photo/video evidence they don’t have - a video of the act or a picture of MM with the suspect on camera. IMO a lot of their strategy has been around closing the gap between abduction & picture/video to work around the potential counter arguments of ‘prove he took that picture’ or ‘he was sent that’ or ‘he had thousands of those pictures, he didn’t know the victims’ etc. IMO they’ve probably come a long way since the appeal & have built up a strong enough case.
A non-forensic murder case will need to be airtight IMO. I think a lot of their purpose is to work through any challenges that could leave a slight argument & jeopardise a future guilty verdict.

 

[RichardKimble]

Early on after or at the appeal in 2020, Wolters said we assume the girl is dead, now it's certain she is, Has Wolters said that or it is it media, If Wolters declared they are certain she is dead when did the shift happen, anyone know?

 

[RichardKimble]

Never seen this before, Reuters 2020.

They said they were treating the case as a suspected murder and had determined the method used to kill McCann.

Madeleine McCann is dead, German prosecutor says

A regional prosecutor's office is investigating a 43-year-old German national on suspicion of murder.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[RichardKimble]

5 days later after the appeal sky had this.

Madeleine McCann: German prosecutor has 'evidence' British girl is dead.​

Madeleine McCann: German prosecutor has 'evidence' British girl is dead

Hans Christian Wolters said police need information about where the new suspect has lived so they can search for the girl's body.

news.sky.com

But later in the piece Wolters is quoted.

We expect that she is dead, but we don't have enough evidence that we can get a warrant for our suspect in Germany for the murder of Madeleine McCann.

 

[Mex]

IMO they’ll have that

IMO the concrete evidence is a photo or video of MM deceased, found amongst CB’s belongings from the apartment search in 2018. HCW was quite specific about what type of photo/video evidence they don’t have - a video of the act or a picture of MM with the suspect on camera. IMO a lot of their strategy has been around closing the gap between abduction & picture/video to work around the potential counter arguments of ‘prove he took that picture’ or ‘he was sent that’ or ‘he had thousands of those pictures, he didn’t know the victims’ etc. IMO they’ve probably come a long way since the appeal & have built up a strong enough case.
A non-forensic murder case will need to be airtight IMO. I think a lot of their purpose is to work through any challenges that could leave a slight argument & jeopardise a future guilty verdict.

I think the evidence they have been working with has evolved from the beginning when they started with nothing but a witness statement which they first of all had to confirm along with evidence from police files etc.

All the real files that is and not the ones released on the internet by an enterprising journalist.

From there they have built their evidence based case and as we have seen from the dam search, they are still developing it.

The police are doing what they have been trained to do and I think good they are at it too.

I don't see what the problem is.

 

[frank-cole]

I think the evidence they have been working with has evolved from the beginning when they started with nothing but a witness statement which they first of all had to confirm along with evidence from police files etc.

All the real files that is and not the ones released on the internet by an enterprising journalist.

From there they have built their evidence based case and as we have seen from the dam search, they are still developing it.

The police are doing what they have been trained to do and I think good they are at it too.

I don't see what the problem is.

I agree. I wonder what the difference was in 2017 compared to 2013. HB’s testimony must be been credible & quickly corroborated with something.

 

[SleuthNia]

So... why exactly are the police trying to match soil samples from his van (Im presuming it's the VW T3 Westphalia) to the soil samples taken from Arade Reservoir? What would this actually prove if they were able to match the samples?

Well, if they were able to successfully match only the soil samples then it would only prove he (or someone else) had been to Arade Reservoir in his van before. It would prove absolutely nothing with regard to CB murdering MM. Therefore, it must be what else was or will be found within the soil samples taken from Arade Reservoir and in his van which can be linked to MM; which could only be bone (probably fragments) and/or clothing (probably microscopic).

A few points I would like to add...

1. If it was only soil samples found in his van, and these samples do in fact match the soil samples taken from Arade Reservoir - yet bone and/or clothing from MM is also found within the Arade Reservoir samples - how does this prove CB murdered MM? Surely it only proves that MM was at Arade Reservoir at some point either alive or deceased (if only clothing is found), or deceased if bone fragments are found.

2. They must, therefore, have found either bone and/or clothing within the soil samples taken from CBs van. In regard to bone fragments, however, if they had found bone fragments from MM in his van, then this would already be stronger evidence to convict CB than finding bone fragments from MM at Arade Reservoir. So I dont see this being the case. 3. By process of elimination then, it must have been MMs clothing they found within the soil samples taken from CBs van, and they are hoping to match the soil samples taken from his van (with her clothing in them) to the soil samples taken from Arade Reservoir (with her bone fragments and possibly clothing in them).

 

[mrjitty]

IMO they’ll have that

IMO the concrete evidence is a photo or video of MM deceased, found amongst CB’s belongings from the apartment search in 2018. HCW was quite specific about what type of photo/video evidence they don’t have - a video of the act or a picture of MM with the suspect on camera. IMO a lot of their strategy has been around closing the gap between abduction & picture/video to work around the potential counter arguments of ‘prove he took that picture’ or ‘he was sent that’ or ‘he had thousands of those pictures, he didn’t know the victims’ etc. IMO they’ve probably come a long way since the appeal & have built up a strong enough case.
A non-forensic murder case will need to be airtight IMO. I think a lot of their purpose is to work through any challenges that could leave a slight argument & jeopardise a future guilty verdict.

BIB

I think they'd have charged him long ago. Those defences are hardly convincing IMO

i also think, if anything was going to leak out of PJ, it would be that

 

[mrjitty]

So... why exactly are the police trying to match soil samples from his van (Im presuming it's the VW T3 Westphalia) to the soil samples taken from Arade Reservoir? What would this actually prove if they were able to match the samples?

Well, if they were able to successfully match only the soil samples then it would only prove he (or someone else) had been to Arade Reservoir in his van before. It would prove absolutely nothing with regard to CB murdering MM. Therefore, it must be what else was or will be found within the soil samples taken from Arade Reservoir and in his van which can be linked to MM; which could only be bone (probably fragments) and/or clothing (probably microscopic).

RSBM

While i think your arguments are good, it could nevertheless be that they are simply matching soil samples.

Lets say due to witness testimony, somehow Arade is important to the case against CB. They have multiple witnesses say he was often there. Soil sample match could help to corroborate that testimony forensically. I agree it doesn't prove murder directly but it might be a relevant circumstantial point.

Small point but I think we can't necessarily assume what they are trying to prove.

 

[RichardKimble]

RSBM

While i think your arguments are good, it could nevertheless be that they are simply matching soil samples.

Lets say due to witness testimony, somehow Arade is important to the case against CB. They have multiple witnesses say he was often there. Soil sample match could help to corroborate that testimony forensically. I agree it doesn't prove murder directly but it might be a relevant circumstantial point.

Small point but I think we can't necessarily assume what they are trying to prove.

It just didn't seem nor now seem that it needed 30+ officers to take just soil samples.

 

[RichardKimble]

Imo that there is some kind of evidence that points to Madeleine being dead we can argue til the cows come home and go out again what that maybe, imo it's also possible there is evidence that points to CB killing Madeleine, the problem is that the link to them being together is what is missing, once again imo it's Madeleines remains that are the key , searches of wells, allotments and the recent ones bear that out .

 

[SleuthNia]

It just didn't seem nor now seem that it needed 30+ officers to take just soil samples.

And without any physical evidence MM was ever at Arade Reserviour, CB may as well just come out and say "yeah, I did visit Arade Reserviour, I use to visit it all the time, at least 2 or 3 times a week, thats obviosuly why you found soil in my van that matches the soil there, what of it?'.

If the only evidence that MM was ever at Arade Reserviour is informant information, CBs defence will just claim they're lying (which they might be) and to prove it (which I think is what they were trying to do).

Simply matching soil samples is such weak evidence however; but matching a soil sample taken from CBs van which had fibres of MM clothing in to, to soil found at Arade Reservoir which has fragments of MMs bones in it would be a whole different story.

 

[SleuthNia]

Imo that there is some kind of evidence that points to Madeleine being dead we can argue til the cows come home and go out again what that maybe, imo it's also possible there is evidence that points to CB killing Madeleine, the problem is that the link to them being together is what is missing, once again imo it's Madeleines remains that are the key , searches of wells, allotments and the recent ones bear that out .

Im still not sure how true it is that German Police know (or at least suspect) the method used to kill MM, but if they do then it must be through photographic or video evidence.

The only other thing I can think of is a confession of some kind, but its not unknown for people to confess to things they have never done. Some kind of sick bragging rights maybe.

 

[Pixie Child]

So... why exactly are the police trying to match soil samples from his van (Im presuming it's the VW T3 Westphalia) to the soil samples taken from Arade Reservoir? What would this actually prove if they were able to match the samples?

Well, if they were able to successfully match only the soil samples then it would only prove he (or someone else) had been to Arade Reservoir in his van before. It would prove absolutely nothing with regard to CB murdering MM. Therefore, it must be what else was or will be found within the soil samples taken from Arade Reservoir and in his van which can be linked to MM; which could only be bone (probably fragments) and/or clothing (probably microscopic).

A few points I would like to add...

1. If it was only soil samples found in his van, and these samples do in fact match the soil samples taken from Arade Reservoir - yet bone and/or clothing from MM is also found within the Arade Reservoir samples - how does this prove CB murdered MM? Surely it only proves that MM was at Arade Reservoir at some point either alive or deceased (if only clothing is found), or deceased if bone fragments are found.

2. They must, therefore, have found either bone and/or clothing within the soil samples taken from CBs van. In regard to bone fragments, however, if they had found bone fragments from MM in his van, then this would already be stronger evidence to convict CB than finding bone fragments from MM at Arade Reservoir. So I dont see this being the case. 3. By process of elimination then, it must have been MMs clothing they found within the soil samples taken from CBs van, and they are hoping to match the soil samples taken from his van (with her clothing in them) to the soil samples taken from Arade Reservoir (with her bone fragments and possibly clothing in them).

Possibly. The fibre evidence from the vehicle might be weak and they are looking for more fabric.

It could also be to corroborate witness evidence. If CB told MC’s gangland client that he disposed of the body at Arade, the soil will show CB was there in his vehicle in that approximate time period.