NY - LISK Bodies found as of December 10, 2011 Thread #13

[Dwntwnslim]

I am not going to answer most of your questions, I am simply going to tell you to familiarize yourself with the materials of this case before you post.

The letters were type written and hand signed, you don't need to contact 48 hours because the police commisioner confirmed it. The rational among us won't believe that every peice of evidence linking CPH to SG and any other victim was fabricated by seperate unrelated conspirators over the decades. No one has been framing or sabotaging CPH since the 1980's, his personal history is his own creation and is well documented. Conspiracy theories belong on LISK.com not WS.

I would like to add another "maybe" to your list, maybe aliens took over the body of CPH, made him commit all the murders, then left his body leaving "no evidence". Science can never prove that this last "maybe" did not happen, but rational people won't waste their time with such notions. Nobody believed Colin Ferguson's assertion that the government planted a chip in his brain for good reason; it's irrational.

How is my theory a conspiracy if there is only one person involved with perpetrating the crime(s)?

Here is one definition of conspiracy as it relates to crime:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conspiracy_(crime)

It is not for you to decide what I "need" to do.

 

[truthspider]

How is my theory a conspiracy if there is only one person involved with perpetrating the crime(s)?

It is not for you to decide what I "need" to do.

Questioning the validity of the phone calls at this point in the investigation is pointing to a conspiracy in my opinion. Professional detectives have confirmed the phone calls, the individual has admitted to the phone calls in written and signed letters, national news organizations have published these letters, and the individual has not come out and claimed that he didn't make the phone calls and write the letters.

Therefore, for someone else to have been masquerading as CPH all this time, you would need corroboration between detectives, the police commissioner, the news organization, and the individual himself.

So why would you question the validity of all the phone calls at this juncture?

 

[inspctrgadget]

"looks bad" is one way that people say it.
"coincidence" is another way you could say it.
"the doc has bad luck" is yet another.

The reason I have confidence in what I know, is that I actually know how to measure what people are trying to communicate when they use phrases such as these. Let me ask you sherlock, when you say "looks bad", if you had to describe what exactly you mean by that, which would you pick?

1) it's just unlucky, like someone who get's 2 speeding tickets in one day.

2) it's a crazy coincidence, like meeting someone from the other side of the planet who shares your first and last name, and is married to someone who has the same first and last name as your spouse.

3) it's as unlucky as finding out that you have a monozygotic twin (genetically identical) you didn't know about, and now they are commiting crimes in your neighborhood and leaving evidence which essentially frames you.


Do you see what I am getting at? Most people don't know how to assign an appropriate probability to an individuals "unluckyness". Well I am hear to tell you that I do know how to describe his "unluckyness" in a realistic, appropriate, quantitative way. What I have been telling people since April 2011 is that being framed by an adversary, then without knowledge of being chosen as this patsy, you under your own free will inject and involve yourself into the case is closest to choice 3. Then as you examine his life and his whereabouts you will see the overlap with the facts of this case.

In finance, odds such as this are known as a good trade or sure thing. In medicine they might say you have 3 months to live, they don't know with certainty you will be dead in less than 3 months, but they can be confident that there is a 99% chance you will. I am not saying it is a universal gaurantee that CPH is the LISK, I am just saying that I could sleep confidentally if I had bet my house and everything I own on it. Because the probability of him not being the SK is extremely low. I don't know forensics, medicine, and the roads around oak beach and long beach like IG, but I do know probabilities, and he is as close as it gets to a sure thing. Coincidence accumulates as you approach the truth.

Let me see if I'm any good at the probability game:

1) What are the odds that experienced police investigators have totally screwed up their analysis of how Shannan Gilbert perished, e.g., that she died of accidental causes? (LOW)

2) What are the odds that CPH bumped into two guys walking through a small neighborhood looking to talk to area residents about their missing friend, and subsequently called on the family at their request to offer assistance as a resource to them? (HIGH)

3) What are the odds that Mari Gilbert did actually report the "rehab call" to Suffolk County police, which the police deny ever happened? (LOW)

4) What are the odds that Mari misrepresented or mis-recollected the nature of CPH's call because she wanted the police to pay special attention to him? Note that her reports of this call only came out only after the mainstream news media was involved. Also note that Mari has expounded some pretty wild theories on the LISK site (of course we can't know for an absolute fact that this is her, but based on context of her posts it seems likely that it is her)? (MODERATE TO HIGH)


Truth, I think that when you start heavily weighing evidence like "His father discussed "*advertiser censored*" in a book", and then subsequently updating your belief model accordingly, you end up with a fundamentally flawed prediction.

If you assign more weight to authoritative sources, like police for example, you end up with better predictive capability in your model. Kind of like how the Google Page Rank system works.

Your statement that "the probability that CPH is not the SK is extremely low" is flawed because you've assigned way too much weight to (your) subjective evidence within your model. Bad Bayesian!

I'll take that bet, by the way.

 

[truthspider]

Truth, I think that when you start heavily weighing evidence like "His father discussed "*advertiser censored*" in a book", and then subsequently updating your belief model accordingly, you end up with a fundamentally flawed prediction.


I'll take that bet, by the way.

I don't weigh the discussion of "converting *advertiser censored*" in his fathers book at all.
I merely find it entertaining when I find instances of his unluckyness. We CAN all agree he is an unlucky fellow, if the poor chap tripped and fell into a wormhole he would probably end up in East London in November of 1888.

I DO weigh his whereabouts at the time and place of the Manorville murders, his connection to SG's case, and his actual documented history of behavior (what is referred to as someone's "character" when they are on trial).

I am glad you are a betting man inspector:crazy: maybe we can have lunch sometime? (I'll buy)
Since gambling is illegal, it will have to be a handshake agreement.

 

[truthspider]

1) What are the odds that experienced police investigators have totally screwed up their analysis of how Shannan Gilbert perished, e.g., that she died of accidental causes? (LOW)

Considering the DOJ is now in town, you may want to rethink this one. I don't believe in psychics or prediction of the future, and since LE stated they believe she drowned before they found her body, only a fool would believe those statements to be anything other than theatrics....But you are no fool, so why are you one of the very very few who believe she died of accidental causes?

 

[inspctrgadget]

I don't weigh the discussion of "converting *advertiser censored*" in his fathers book at all.
I merely find it entertaining when I find instances of his unluckyness.

I DO weigh his whereabouts at the time and place of the Manorville murders, his connection to SG's case, and his actual documented history of behavior.

I am glad you are a betting man inspector:crazy: maybe we can have lunch sometime?
Since gambling is illegal, it will have to be a handshake agreement.

See, that's the mistake I made when I originally started looking at this case. I didn't assign enough of a probability to the possibility that SG died of accidental causes. I originally figured (incorrectly, I believe) that because an escort who advertised on Craigslist went missing within a 5-mile radius of where the GB4 were found, and since they were also escorts or prostitutes, some of whom advertized on Craigslist, that there was a extremely high probability that the cases were related. This is where probability gets interesting. I also had figured that KU was potentially involved because of proximity to GC's house, the fact that she was knocking on doors and the fact that he was selling his house around the time of the discoveries. I was wrong with KU, as I was when I researched SY and came up with the sex forum stuff and then stumbled on that other lunatic with the rape shack. All were totally irrelevant. Complete waste of time.

My model didn't start with the two distinct hypotheses: (1) Shannan was related and died at the hands of a serial murderer, and (2) Shannan died of accidental causes.

If I had started with those two hypotheses, the simple lack of evidence or a police arrest could have informed me that hypotheses #2 was slightly more probable than hypothesis #1. Once she was ultimately found and it was determined that she died of accidental causes, I quickly realized my error and adjusted my belief model. I was also able to quickly put into context all of the other "stuff" surrounding her disappearance, like the "rehab call", running from JB's house and calling 911 to report her distress. While it all appears to be related to the GB4 and suggestive of her succumbing to a serial murderer from Oak Beach, its not.

So, CPH's whereabouts are irrelevant, as is his so called "documented history of behavior" which is by the way in my opinion quite unremarkable for a public figure and emergency responder. If anything, it shows that he's a pretty decent human being. His connection with this case goes only so far as him bumping into Pak and Diaz. Everything else is hearsay and again, irrelevant anyway because Shannan tragically died of accidental causes.

I go back to my original question, Truth. If Shannan had never gone missing, how would you go about sleuthing the Long Island Serial Killer?

I'm down for revealing personally identifiable info for lunch only after this psycho is caught.

 

[truthspider]

I'm down for revealing personally identifiable info for lunch only after this psycho is caught.

Great, I will pay, you can pick the place. I won't be ordering the word salad.
No one would be sleuthing the LISK if SG didn't blow the whistle on oak beach.

 

[Aleph]

I should also point out that S.T.A.L.K., Inc has updated their profile as of January 9, 2012. Their recent update has me wondering if LE has the perp on the ropes? Here is the link if you or anyone else is interested in checking it out:http://www.stalkinc.com/profile6.html

It's difficult to judge the quality of any profile before the killer is caught, especially if the profiler does not tell us his reasoning for believing the perpetrator must be one way and not another. I wish the S.T.A.L.K. profiles showed more of the logic behind their conclusions. They make sweeping declarations like "Atlantic City is unrelated" in red ink without giving any justification.

The profile written by our own Peter Brendt explains his thinking clearly and I got a lot more out of reading it, despite finding his theories about the killer's race to be a total mish-mash.

But I can confidently dismiss Brendt's racial ideas because he explains his thought process. If he declared the LISK to be African-American without giving any rationale, there wouldn't be much to work with.

 

[truthspider]

his so called "documented history of behavior" which is by the way in my opinion quite unremarkable for a public figure and emergency responder.

unremarkable? do I need to repost the Newsday expose on his career? many people that worked with the man call him a fantastical liar. His lies are not unremarkable.

His connection with this case goes only so far as him bumping into Pak and Diaz. Everything else is hearsay and again, irrelevant anyway because Shannan tragically died of accidental causes.

Why are you downplaying CPH's involvement in this case? He made phone calls to the mother and LITTLE SISTER in the days after SG's disappearance. That is not hearsay. You seem to be intentionally spouting false information about CPH's involvement in this case. Everyone knows his involvement is more than bumping into 2 men. (According to those men they had gone specifically to CPH's house because of the original phone call)

 

[inspctrgadget]

Considering the DOJ is now in town, you may want to rethink this one. I don't believe in psychics or prediction of the future, and since LE stated they believe she drowned before they found her body, only a fool would believe those statements to be anything other than theatrics....But you are no fool, so why are you one of the very very few who believe she died of accidental causes?

This is one of those cases where hindsight is 20/20. My guess is that police had someone fresh take a look at this case, someone with a great deal of experience. That's my guess for where this whole "new information" thing came from just before they started looking in the swamp (it probably wasn't Fluke or the mob).

This experienced person probably saw through all of the junk and quickly surmised that Shannan got lost in the weeds and drowned. So the police went in there thinking, holy cow, why didn't we think of that? They went in and quickly located her body. She drowned.

So again, I'm not one of the few who believe she died of accidental causes, because on my side of the fence is the SCPD who, while they've apparently made a serious investigative misstep by not first and foremost investigating the possibility that she ran into the marsh off Anchor Way and drowned (especially since they had multiple eyewitness accounts of her having a serious personal medical episode), they apparently got it right in the end.

I don't agree with your assessment that "anybody but a fool would believe those statements". I do not believe that the SCPD is somehow misguiding the public with these statements in any way, shape or form. I also don't believe that Obama is from Kenya, nor do I believe that Bush was responsible for 9/11. But I guarantee a decent percentage of people do actually believe those things.

 

[inspctrgadget]

unremarkable? do I need to repost the Newsday expose on his career? many people that worked with the man call him a fantastical liar. His lies are not unremarkable.



Why are you downplaying CPH's involvement in this case? He made phone calls to the mother and LITTLE SISTER in the days after SG's disappearance. That is not hearsay. You seem to be intentionally spouting false information about CPH's involvement in this case. Everyone knows his involvement is more than bumping into 2 men. (According to those men they had gone specifically to CPH's house because of the original phone call)

Please review my comments on the Newsday article over on the "Book" thread. We don't need to revisit that this is a common occurrence in administrative firings. Again though, the whole point is moot anyhow given that SG died of accidental causes. Also, his "lies" are hearsay, and he had just as many strong supporters as he did detractors.

I know he made phone calls. Please refer to his 48 Hours letter without wearing a tinfoil hat. They make sense. He spoke to Diaz/Pak and they gave him the sister's number. So what?

In no way am I spouting false information, and I absolutely demand that you provide a link to any source material where Diaz or Pak claimed that they went to CPH's house because they were aware of the "original" phone call because that is false information.

 

[Just K]

Let's be factual. The ME has given no "Official" COD for Shannan Gilbert. Neither has SCPD. Dormer, is the only one I can recall that even reported that it appears she ran in there and drowned. He made that statement BEFORE her body was recovered.

The day Shannan went missing, LE arrived about 6:00 AM and this appears to be just after daybreak. Reports suggest that they did bring in a helicopter and did a ground search of the area with LE Officers and at least one SAR dog. They did not find her then. We don't know if her remains or her belongings were there the entire time. We have seen weather documentation that suggests that on May 1st, 2010 that it had not rained in that area for quite some time. So, reports that it was swampy are probably not true. Google Maps 2010 show that area to be dry yet lush. Man made trails/paths criss-crossed the entire marsh.

 

[inspctrgadget]

Let's be factual. The ME has given no "Official" COD for Shannan Gilbert. Neither has SCPD. Dormer, is the only one I can recall that even reported that it appears she ran in there and drowned. He made that statement BEFORE her body was recovered.

The day Shannan went missing, LE arrived about 6:00 AM and this appears to be just after daybreak. Reports suggest that they did bring in a helicopter and did a ground search of the area with LE Officers and at least one SAR dog. They did not find her then. We don't know if her remains or her belongings were there the entire time. We have seen weather documentation that suggests that on May 1st, 2010 that it had not rained in that area for quite some time. So, reports that it was swampy are probably not true. Google Maps 2010 show that area to be dry yet lush. Man made trails/paths criss-crossed the entire marsh.

Just K, I don't give too much weight to the fact that the ME hasn't provided an official COD. The ME needs to make some very difficult determinations about cause and manner of death, and these need to comport with the investigation.

In this case, you have a body that's been sitting in and out of salty water for a year. Making a determination of whether the manner of death was drowning or hypothermia would be extremely difficult or impossible. Now add the fact that the ME's opinion needs to align with the police investigation, which is still unresolved since there are 10 other bodies in the vicinity which are clearly homicides.

So, even if the ME could determine that it was drowning, they would be unable to positively rule that it was accidental, homicidal or suicidal based on all of the extenuating circumstances surrounding her disappearance and the broader investigation.

Now, if she was dismembered and had a bullet through her skull, they would probably feel comfortable issuing an official COD determination.

But, they can't make a positive determination and shouldn't at this point since they just don't have to until the investigation is more thoroughly resolved.

As far as a SAR dog being on-scene the day she went missing, stepping in even a puddle of water removes your scent - hunters do it all the time. And based on where her body was found and the "lush" vegetation that police needed a swamp vehicle to even access safely, its no surprise that she wasn't seen by the chopper.

Also, the weather documentation that I've posted shows local water temps that would kill her in under an hour, a dip in local air temperature during the hour she was missing and an increase in local wind speed. Also note that this is a tidal marsh, so rainfall isn't the only factor to consider as far as water goes. Sunrise wasn't until 5:48 AM, and by that time my guess is that she was hopelessly lost and cold, and probably curled up and went peacefully to sleep.

 

[Just K]

We have no proof that the body or the belongings sat in any particular place for over a year. That is information that a forensic specialist will determine.

 

[inspctrgadget]

We have no proof that the body or the belongings sat in any particular place for over a year. That is information that a forensic specialist will determine.

Fair enough Just K, but we have no proof that they didn't. So how does this lend any weight either way to any hypothesis? We need to look at this holistically. When we do, the case of Shannan Gilbert becomes pretty clear, but the case of the GB4 and the rest of the victims is still a complete mystery that I think we as "websleuths" should be devoting much more attention to at this point (not to take away from the excellent work many here have already done).

We know for an absolute fact that the GB4 and Manorville were victims of one or more serial murderers. No mistake about that.

We know for a fact that Amanda Barthelemy received calls from someone who was very likely Melissa's killer, and by extension, the killer of the other GB4 victims given similar COD and manner of disposal.

We know for a fact that a man named Carman Monaco Jr. made eerily similar lewd and threatening phone calls anonymously from payphones in the city to certain women between 1998-2004 prior to his arrest for stalking.

We know for a fact that Carman Monaco Jr. was ordered by a court to complete psychiatric counseling in 2005, which his own lawyer said "he needed".

We know for a fact that Carman Monaco Jr. was questioned by Suffolk County police in 2004/2005 regarding his possible involvement with the Manorville murders. We also know that police at the time "refused to rule him out as a suspect."

We know for a fact that dismembered portions of the Manorville victims were found along Ocean Parkway, in the immediate vicinity of the GB4.

We know for a fact that at least 1 of the 2 Manorville victims and all of the GB4 victims were prostitutes, which leads us to reasonably believe (but not definitively conclude) that: (1) Jane Doe #6 was likely a prostitute, and (2) there is most likely a single serial killer responsible for all 6 deaths given their final proximity along Ocean Parkway.

So you tell me: Why are we collectively as a group not focused on Carman Monaco Jr. given the above, indisputable facts?

 

[inspctrgadget]

Great, I will pay, you can pick the place. I won't be ordering the word salad.
No one would be sleuthing the LISK if SG didn't blow the whistle on oak beach.

Actually, Blue was supposedly on a training exercise. If Shannan had never disappeared, you might have a different profile pic. Maybe someone from Gilgo Beach? Maybe Carman?

I think I get the word salad joke. Am I too wordy? Clever and funny.
:rocker:
:floorlaugh:

 

[WINDSOR]

Let us carefully anaylze some probabilities

Assume that inspctorgadget and Dormer are correct and SG wandered into the swamp and drowned with no foul play involved.

If this is a probable outcome, in theory it should have happened before. Now I know people are drowning regularly in the ocean, in bays and in rivers. But how common is it that somebody has drowned in the Oak beach area swamps before?

If historical records show every few years somebody wanders into the swamp and drowns, the theory that is what happened to SG becomes very believable. On the other hand if there is no or minimal historical record of people drowning in the swamp areas, then I doubt SG drowned.

Anybody out their know of another swamp drowning in Long Island?

 

[Dwntwnslim]

I am not going to answer most of your questions, I am simply going to tell you to familiarize yourself with the materials of this case before you post.

The letters were type written and hand signed, you don't need to contact 48 hours because the police commisioner confirmed it. The rational among us won't believe that every peice of evidence linking CPH to SG and any other victim was fabricated by seperate unrelated conspirators over the decades. No one has been framing or sabotaging CPH since the 1980's, his personal history is his own creation and is well documented. Conspiracy theories belong on LISK.com not WS.

I would like to add another "maybe" to your list, maybe aliens took over the body of CPH, made him commit all the murders, then left his body leaving "no evidence". Science can never prove that this last "maybe" did not happen, but rational people won't waste their time with such notions. Nobody believed Colin Ferguson's assertion that the government planted a chip in his brain for good reason; it's irrational.

“I am not going to answer most of your questions, I am simply going to tell you to familiarize yourself with the materials of this case before you(sic) post”

You didn't answer any of my questions from my post.


“The letters were type written and hand signed, you don't need to contact 48 hours because the police commisioner(sic) confirmed it.”

How could you possibly know with any degree of certainty that the letters were hand signed? If you have supporting documentation, please post the link(s).

When did Commissioner Dormer confirm that the 48 Hours letters were type written and hand signed by anyone? If you have any supporting documentation, please post the link(s).


“The rational among us won't believe that every peice(sic) of evidence linking CPH to SG and any other victim was fabricated by seperate(sic) unrelated conspirators over the decades. No one has been framing or sabotaging CPH since the 1980's, his personal history is his own creation and is well documented.”

I never said that “every peice(sic) of evidence...” was fabricated by “unrelated conspirators over decades”. That's all you.

I never said that someone has been “framing or sabotaging CPH since the 1980's.” Again, that's all you. My theory involves ONE PERPETRATOR and ONE PERPETRATOR only.


“Conspiracy theories belong on LISK.com not WS.”

Here is the Legal definition of conspiracy from www.legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com :

“An agreement between Two or More persons to engage jointly in an unlawful or criminal act, or an act that is innocent in itself but becomes unlawful when done by the combination of actors.”

http://legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/conspiracy

Using the legal definition of conspiracy provided, how does the theory I proposed in post #327 of this thread, meet the criteria of conspiracy if there is one perpetrator involved in the commission of the hypothetical crimes?

I believe it's up to the moderators of this site to discern what posts are appropriate and what posts are not. Not you.

“I would like to add another "maybe" to your list, maybe aliens took over the body of CPH, made him commit all the murders, then left his body leaving "no evidence". Science can never prove that this last "maybe" did not happen, but rational people won't waste their time with such notions. Nobody believed Colin Ferguson's assertion that the government planted a chip in his brain for good reason; it's irrational.”

I am not exactly sure what you were attempting to convey in your second to last paragraph. I will leave that one alone.

 

[Dwntwnslim]

Questioning the validity of the phone calls at this point in the investigation is pointing to a conspiracy in my opinion. Professional detectives have confirmed the phone calls, the individual has admitted to the phone calls in written and signed letters, national news organizations have published these letters, and the individual has not come out and claimed that he didn't make the phone calls and write the letters.

Therefore, for someone else to have been masquerading as CPH all this time, you would need corroboration between detectives, the police commissioner, the news organization, and the individual himself.

So why would you question the validity of all the phone calls at this juncture?

“Questioning the validity of the phone calls at this point in the investigation is pointing to a conspiracy in my opinion.”

This is the legal definition of conspiracy:

“An agreement between Two or More persons to engage jointly in an unlawful or criminal act, or an act that is innocent in itself but becomes unlawful when done by the combination of actors.”

http://legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/conspiracy

Again, how does the theory I proposed in post #327 of this thread, meet the criteria of conspiracy if there is one perpetrator involved in the commission of the hypothetical crimes?

“Professional detectives have confirmed the phone calls...”

Commissioner Dormer is the only member of LE who has confirmed any calls. I refer you to this quote:
“yeah our information is that he did”. The commissioner did not offer any further details beyond that statement. But, if you have some documentation that states otherwise, please post the link(s).

http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-18559_162-20078763.html?pageNum=2

“...the individual has admitted to the phone calls in written and signed letters, national news organizations have published these letters,...”

Again, 48 Hours never provided details about how, when and if they authenticated the letters' provenance and signature. LE has not provided information regarding this either, to my knowledge. But, if you have documentation that states otherwise, please post the link(s).


“...the individual has not come out and claimed that he didn't make the phone calls and write the letters.”

How could you possibly know with any degree of certainty that the doctor has not done so? Maybe he has approached LE with this assertion and it has not been reported in media?


“Therefore, for someone else to have been masquerading as CPH all this time, you would need corroboration between detectives, the police commissioner, the news organization, and the individual himself.”

I never said that someone has “been masquerading as CPH all this time.” That's all you. Furthermore, I have Never alleged any conspiracy to be a part of any theories I have presented on this forum.


“So why would you question the validity of all the phone calls at this juncture?”

I question everything. It is my personal belief that by asking questions, one has a better chance of arriving at the truth.

 

[truthspider]

Let us carefully anaylze some probabilities

Assume that inspctorgadget and Dormer are correct and SG wandered into the swamp and drowned with no foul play involved.

If this is a probable outcome, in theory it should have happened before. Now I know people are drowning regularly in the ocean, in bays and in rivers. But how common is it that somebody has drowned in the Oak beach area swamps before?

If historical records show every few years somebody wanders into the swamp and drowns, the theory that is what happened to SG becomes very believable. On the other hand if there is no or minimal historical record of people drowning in the swamp areas, then I doubt SG drowned.

Anybody out their know of another swamp drowning in Long Island?

I do know of a similar example: four separate woman were found face down in ankle deep brackish water in a similar marsh like area in Atlantic City in 2006. Maybe they drowned too?